• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Industrial Safety Conference
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• 1997.11a
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• pp.179-184
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• 1997

지금까지 수행되었던 원자력발전소의 확률론적 안전성 평가 (Probabilistic Safety Assessment; PSA) 결과, 노심손상 빈도의 30% - 70%가 인간행위와 관련이 있는 것으로 밝혀져 PSA에서 인간행위를 적절히 다루는 것은 매우 중요하다. 특히 원자력발전소의 정지운전인 경우에는 자동으로 작동하는 계통이 거의 없어 고장수목(fault tree)과 사건수목(event tree)의 모델링에 많은 운전인 행위가 포함되기 때문에 노심손상 빈도와 관련이 있는 인간행위는 전출력 운전(full power operation)에 대한 PSA 결과의 경우보다 많은 것으로 나타났다. PSA에서 인간신뢰도분석(human reliability analysis)은 PSA의 논리구조인 고장수목과 사건수목에 모델링될 인간행위를 파악하고 정량화하는 것이다. 현재 인간신뢰도분석은 인간행위에 대한 데이타의 부족과 인간행위 자체의 다변성(variability)으로 인해 분석에 어려움이 있고 분석자의 주관성이 개입될 여지가 많은 실정이며, 이에 따라 분석 결과에는 많은 불확실성을 내포하게 된다. (중략)

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.30 no.4A
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• pp.343-352
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• 2010

Recently, many researchers have been carried out to estimate more controlled service life and long-term performance of carbonated concrete structures. Durability analysis and design based on probability have been induced to new concrete structures for design. This paper provides a carbonation prediction model based on the Fick's 1st law of diffusion using statistic data of carbonated concrete structures and the probabilistic analysis of the durability performance has been carried out by using a Bayes' theorem. The influence of concerned design parameters such as $CO_2$ diffusion coefficient, atmospheric $CO_2$ concentration, absorption quantity of $CO_2$ and the degree of hydration was investigated. Using a monitoring data, this model which was based on probabilistic approach was predicted a carbonation depth and a remaining service life at a variety of environmental concrete structures. Form the result, the application method using a realistic carbonation prediction model can be to estimate erosion-open-time, controlled durability and to determine a making decision for suitable repair and maintenance of carbonated concrete structures.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2011.02a
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• pp.94-94
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• 2011

배관 구조물에서는 내부 미세 균열에서부터 국부 좌굴, 볼트 풀림, 피로 균열 등과 같이 다양한 형태의 손상이 복합적으로 발생 가능하다. 이러한 복합 손상은 배관 구조물의 누수, 누유 등의 사고를 야기할 수 있다. 하지만 기존의 단일 스케일 계측 시스템으로부터 복합 손상에 의한 실시간 누수를 진단하기는 매우 어렵다. 본 연구 단계에서는 누수를 야기하는 복합 손상을 효율적으로 진단하기 위하여 선행 연구에서 제안된 압전센서를 이용한 자가 계측 회로 기반의 다중 스케일 계측 시스템을 구조물의 복합 손상 진단에 적용하였다. 자가 계측 회로 기반 다중 스케일 계측 시스템은 크게 두 가지 형태의 신호를 계측한다. 첫 번째 스케일은 임피던스 계측으로부터 특정 주파수 대역폭에 대한 구조 응답을 계측하며, 두 번째 스케일은 유도 초음파 계측으로부터 단일 중심 주파수에 해당하는 구조물의 응답을 계측한다. 복합 손상을 손상 유형별로 분류하기 위하여 E/M 임피던스(Electro-mechanical impedance)및 유도 초음파(Guided wave) 계측으로부터 추출한 특성을 이용하여 2차원 손상지수를 계산하고 이를 지도학습 기반 패턴인식 기법(Supervised learning based pattern recognition) 중 확률론적 신경망 기법(Probabilistic Neural Network, PNN)에 적용한다. 제안된 기법의 적용성 검토를 위하여 파이프 구조물에 인위적으로 다중 손상을 생성시켜 시험을 수행하였다. 본 연구에서 제안된 기법이 실제 배관 구조물에 성공적으로 적용된다면 손상 부재의 거동 및 구조물 성능의 손상에 대한 영향을 효율적으로 진단하고 평가함으로써 배관 구조물의 효과적인 유지관리가 가능할 것으로 예상된다.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.49 no.2
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• pp.124-131
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• 2012

This paper provides prediction of ultimate longitudinal strengths of hull girder of a VLCC considering probabilistic damage extents due to collision and grounding accidents based on IMO Guideline(2003). The probability density functions of damage extents are expressed as a function of nondimensional damage variables. The accumulated probability levels of 10%, 30%, 50%, and 70% are taken into account for the damage extent estimation. The ultimate strengths have been calculated using in-house software UMADS (Ultimate Moment Analysis of Damaged Ships) which is based on the progressive collapse method. Damage indices are provided for all heeling angles due to any possible flooding of compartments from $0^{\circ}$ to $180^{\circ}$ which represent from sagging to hogging conditions, respectively. The analysis results reveal that minimum damage indices show different values according to heeling angles and damage levels.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.29 no.8 s.239
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• pp.1102-1108
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• 2005

The integrity of nuclear piping systems has to be maintained sufficiently all the times during operation. In order to maintain the integrity, reliable assessment procedures including fracture mechanics analysis, etc, are required. Up to now, the integrity assessment has been performed using conventional deterministic approach even though there are lots of uncertainties to hinder a rational evaluation. In this respect, probabilistic approach is considered as an appropriate method for piping system evaluation. The objectives of this paper are to develop a probabilistic assessment program using reliability index and simulation technique and to estimate the damage probability of wall-thinned pipes in secondary systems. The probabilistic assessment program consists of three evaluation modules which are first order reliability method, second order reliability method and Monte Carlo simulation method. The developed program has been applied to evaluate damage probabilities of wall-thinned pipes subjected to internal pressure, global bending moment and combined loading. The sensitivity analysis results as well as prototypal evaluation results showed a promising applicability of the probabilistic integrity assessment program.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.14 no.5
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• pp.1097-1104
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• 1994

The external loads applied to a real structure may cause a severe damage and may eventually lead to total failure. It is thus the requirement that the structure must be designed to fulfil its safe function under any anticipated loads and must have the desired level of safety. The purpose of the present study is to propose a method of damage accumulation under seismic loadings to utilize it in the safety assessment of a reinforced concrete structure. To this end, the nonlinear hysteretic behavior of reinforced concrete structures is first modeled and the equivalent linearization technique is employed to solve numerically the probabilistic characteristics of response under random seismic loadings.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.8-14
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• 2017

Nonstructural components, such as electrical equipment, have critical roles in the proper functionality of various infrastructure systems. Some of these devices in certain facilities should operate even under strong seismic shaking. However, it is challenging to define each mechanical and operational failure and determine system failure probabilities under seismic shaking due to the uncertainties in earthquake excitations and the diversity of electrical equipment, among other factors. Therefore, it is necessary to develop effective and practical probabilistic models for performance assessment of electrical equipment considering variations in equipment features and earthquakes. This study will enhance the understanding of the effect of rocking behavior on nonstructural equipment, and linear-to-nonlinear behavior of restrainers. In addition, this study will generate probabilistic seismic demand models of rigid equipment for a set of conventional and novel intensity measures.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.611-626
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• 1994

격납건물 사건수목 방법은 확률론적 안전성 평가시 격납건물 해석의 핵심을 이루는 부분으로서 계통안전 분석으로부터 파악된 주요 노심용융 사고경위와 격납건물 방호계통의 적절한 조합에 의하여 선정된 발전소손상군을 초기조건으로 하여 격납건물 파손 및 방사선원 방출에 영향을 주는 격납건물 내부에서 발생 가능한 주요 사고진행 과정을 체계적으로 다룰 수 있는 유용한 수단이다. 원자력 안전성 향상연구이후 격납건물의 건전성을 확보하기 위한 많은 노력의 결과 현재까지 격납건물 해석 및 논리체계는 상당한 기술적 진보를 이루어 왔으나 아직도 이를 기술하는 방식에는 논쟁의 여지가 많고, 중대사고와 관련된 여러 현상들을 반영할때 그것의 논리적 타당성을 객관적으로 평가할 수 있는 방법이 아직 확고히 정착되지 못함으로 인하여 격납건물 해석결과에는 많은 불확실성 이 존재한다. 또한 아직까지 기존 방법론에 대한 어떠한 종류의 체계적 분석도 이루어지지 않음으로 인하여 이들에 대한 논리적 한계점을 파악하는 데 많은 어려움이 있다. 본 연구에서는 지금까지 주로 개발, 사용되어 온 다양한 격납건물 사건수목 분석 방법론을 소개하고 이들 각각이 지니고 있는 기술적인 문제점을 고찰하며 이를 바탕으로 격납건물 사건수목이 갖추어야 할 기본논리, 구조에 대한 안내지침을 제시함으로써 효과적인 격납건물 해석 및 방법론 개발에 도움을 주고자 한다

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.36 no.4
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• pp.273-282
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• 2023

Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) has been widely used to evaluate the seismic risk of nuclear power plants (NPPs). However, studies on seismic PSA for process plants, such as gas plants, oil refineries, and chemical plants, have been scarce. This is because the major disasters to which these process plants are vulnerable include explosions, fires, and release (or dispersion) of toxic chemicals. However, seismic PSA is essential for the plants located in regions with significant earthquake risks. Seismic PSA entails probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), event tree analysis (ETA), fault tree analysis (FTA), and fragility analysis for the structures and essential equipment items. Among those analyses, ETA can depict the accident sequence for core damage, which is the worst disaster and top event concerning NPPs. However, there is no general top event with regard to process plants. Therefore, PSA cannot be directly applied to process plants. Moreover, there is a paucity of studies on developing fragility curves for various equipment. This paper introduces PSA for gas plants based on FTA, which is then transformed into Bayesian network, that is, a probabilistic graph model that can aid risk-informed decision-making. Finally, the proposed method is applied to a gas plant, and several decision-making cases are demonstrated.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.14-21
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• 1994

The studios on the stability of damaged ships have been carried out continuously to prevent frequent damages or sinkings which cause large loss of life and fortunes. For dry cargo ships, continuing losses have resulted in new legislation of the probabilistic damage stability. IMO has developed requirements for the subdivison and damage stability of dry cargo ships based on probabilistic concepts. The calculation of the probabilistc damage stability is a complicated and iterative job hence development of computer programs is indispensable. In this research, programming of the probabilistic damage stability according to new requirements has been done and the results were compared with those carried out by the other foreign packages. New algorithm using a grid model in a transversal section was introduced to reduce efforts in preparing input data for damage scenarios and as a result, has brought significant improvement in efficiency and performance.