• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률론적 성능평가

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Objective Reduction Approach for Efficient Decision Making of Multi-Objective Optimum Service Life Management (다목적 최적화 기반 구조물 수명관리의 효율적 의사결정을 위한 목적감소 기법의 적용)

  • Kim, Sunyong
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.254-260
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    • 2017
  • The service life of civil infrastructure needs to be maintained or extended through appropriate inspections and maintenance planning, which results from the optimization process. A multi-objective optimization process can lead to more rational and flexible trade-off solutions rather than a single-objective optimization for the service life management of civil infrastructure. Recent investigations on the service life management of civil infrastructure were generally based on minimizing the life-cycle cost analysis and maximizing the structural performance. Various objectives for service life management have been developed using novel probabilistic concepts and methods over the last few decades. On the other hand, an increase in the number of objectives in a multi-objective optimization problem can lead to difficulties in computational efficiency, visualization, and decision making. These difficulties can be overcome using the objective reduction approach to identify the redundant and essential objectives. As a result, the efficiency in computational efforts, visualization, and decision making can be improved. In this paper, the multi-objective optimization using the objective reduction approach was applied to the service life management of concrete bridges. The results showed that four initial objectives can be reduced by two objectives for the optimal service life management.

A Dynamic Link Model for Korean POS-Tagging (한국어 품사 태깅을 위한 다이내믹 링크 모델)

  • Hwang, Myeong-Jin;Kang, Mi-Young;Kwon, Hyuk-Chul
    • Annual Conference on Human and Language Technology
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    • 2007.10a
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    • pp.282-289
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    • 2007
  • 통계를 이용한 품사 태깅에서는 자료부족 문제가 이슈가 된다. 한국어나 터키어와 같은 교착어는 어절(word)이 다수 형태소로 구성되어 있어서 자료부족 문제가 더 심각하다. 이러한 문제를 극복하고자 교착어 문장을 어절 열이 아니라 형태소의 열이라 가정한 연구도 있었으나, 어절 특성이 사라지기 때문에 파생에 의한 어절의 문법 범주 변화 등의 통계정보와 어절 간의 통계정보를 구하기 어렵다. 본 논문은 효율적인 어절 간 전이확률 계산 방법론을 고안함으로써 어절 단위의 정보를 유지하면서도 자료부족문제를 해결할 수 있는 확률 모델을 제안한다. 즉, 한국어의 형태통사적인 특성을 고려하면 앞 어절의 마지막 형태소와 함께 뒤 어절의 처음 혹은 끝 형태소-즉 두 개의 어절 간 전이 링크만으로도 어절 간 전이확률 계산 시 필요한 대부분 정보를 얻을 수 있고, 문맥에 따라 두 링크 중 하나만 필요하다는 관찰을 토대로 규칙을 이용해 두전이링크 중 하나를 선택해 전이확률 계산에 사용하는 '다이내믹 링크 모델'을 제안한다. 형태소 품사 bi-gram만을 사용하는 이 모델은 실험 말뭉치에 대해 96.60%의 정확도를 보인다. 이는 같은 말뭉치에 대해 형태소 품사 tri-gram 등의 더 많은 문맥 정보를 사용하는 다른 모델을 평가했을 때와 대등한 성능이다.

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Retrofit Prioritization of Highway Network considering Seismic Risk of System (지진 위험도를 고려한 도로 교통망의 내진보강 우선순위 결정)

  • Na, Ung-Jin;Park, Tae-Won;Shinozuka, Masanobu
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.12 no.6
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    • pp.47-53
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    • 2008
  • This research focuses on the issue of seismic retrofit prioritization based on the Caltrans' highway network serving Los Angeles and Orange counties. Retrofit prioritization is one of most important problems in earthquake engineering, and it is a problem that most decision makers face in the process of resource allocation. This study demonstrates the methods of prioritized resource allocation in the process of retrofitting a regional highway network. For the criteria of a retrofit ranking, seismic vulnerability and the importance of network link are first introduced. Subsequently, link-based seismic retrofit cases are simulated, investigating the effects of the seismic retrofit in terms of seismic performance, such as driver's delay. In this study, probabilistic scenario earthquakes are used to perform a probabilistic seismic risk analysis. The results show that the retrofit prioritization can be differently defined and ranked depending on the stakeholders. This study provides general guidelines for prioritization strategy for the effective retrofitting of a highway network system.

Prediction of Landslides and Determination of Its Variable Importance Using AutoML (AutoML을 이용한 산사태 예측 및 변수 중요도 산정)

  • Nam, KoungHoon;Kim, Man-Il;Kwon, Oil;Wang, Fawu;Jeong, Gyo-Cheol
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.315-325
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    • 2020
  • This study was performed to develop a model to predict landslides and determine the variable importance of landslides susceptibility factors based on the probabilistic prediction of landslides occurring on slopes along the road. Field survey data of 30,615 slopes from 2007 to 2020 in Korea were analyzed to develop a landslide prediction model. Of the total 131 variable factors, 17 topographic factors and 114 geological factors (including 89 bedrocks) were used to predict landslides. Automated machine learning (AutoML) was used to classify landslides and non-landslides. The verification results revealed that the best model, an extremely randomized tree (XRT) with excellent predictive performance, yielded 83.977% of prediction rates on test data. As a result of the analysis to determine the variable importance of the landslide susceptibility factors, it was composed of 10 topographic factors and 9 geological factors, which was presented as a percentage for each factor. This model was evaluated probabilistically and quantitatively for the likelihood of landslide occurrence by deriving the ranking of variable importance using only on-site survey data. It is considered that this model can provide a reliable basis for slope safety assessment through field surveys to decision-makers in the future.

A Study on the Implementation of Aircraft System Safety Assessment using Probabilistic Analysis of Failure Data (고장 데이터의 확률 분석을 적용한 항공기 시스템 안전성 평가 수행 방안 연구)

  • Yoo, Seung-woo;Kim, In-Gul
    • Journal of Aerospace System Engineering
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    • v.14 no.spc
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    • pp.31-38
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    • 2020
  • The aircraft system safety assessment, which is emphasized in the development and certification of aircraft, is a systematic and comprehensive evaluation process to determine that all relevant failure conditions have been identified and that all significant combinations of failures cannot result in unacceptable hazards. As the aircraft systems become more complex and require integrated function and performance, proper safety objectives must be established and appropriate assessments are need to be accompanied. This paper has prepared to propose the efficient probabilistic analysis of failure data to evaluate the risk level over the entire aircraft lifecycle through the safety assessment and to review the considerations for aircraft certification and safety improvement.

Development of an On-line Intelligent Embedded System for Detection the Leakage of Pipeline (실시간 누수 감지 가능한 매립형 지능형 배관 진단 시스템)

  • Lee, Changgil;Kim, Tae-Heon;Chang, Hajoo;Park, Seunghee
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2011.02a
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    • pp.94-94
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    • 2011
  • 배관 구조물에서는 내부 미세 균열에서부터 국부 좌굴, 볼트 풀림, 피로 균열 등과 같이 다양한 형태의 손상이 복합적으로 발생 가능하다. 이러한 복합 손상은 배관 구조물의 누수, 누유 등의 사고를 야기할 수 있다. 하지만 기존의 단일 스케일 계측 시스템으로부터 복합 손상에 의한 실시간 누수를 진단하기는 매우 어렵다. 본 연구 단계에서는 누수를 야기하는 복합 손상을 효율적으로 진단하기 위하여 선행 연구에서 제안된 압전센서를 이용한 자가 계측 회로 기반의 다중 스케일 계측 시스템을 구조물의 복합 손상 진단에 적용하였다. 자가 계측 회로 기반 다중 스케일 계측 시스템은 크게 두 가지 형태의 신호를 계측한다. 첫 번째 스케일은 임피던스 계측으로부터 특정 주파수 대역폭에 대한 구조 응답을 계측하며, 두 번째 스케일은 유도 초음파 계측으로부터 단일 중심 주파수에 해당하는 구조물의 응답을 계측한다. 복합 손상을 손상 유형별로 분류하기 위하여 E/M 임피던스(Electro-mechanical impedance)및 유도 초음파(Guided wave) 계측으로부터 추출한 특성을 이용하여 2차원 손상지수를 계산하고 이를 지도학습 기반 패턴인식 기법(Supervised learning based pattern recognition) 중 확률론적 신경망 기법(Probabilistic Neural Network, PNN)에 적용한다. 제안된 기법의 적용성 검토를 위하여 파이프 구조물에 인위적으로 다중 손상을 생성시켜 시험을 수행하였다. 본 연구에서 제안된 기법이 실제 배관 구조물에 성공적으로 적용된다면 손상 부재의 거동 및 구조물 성능의 손상에 대한 영향을 효율적으로 진단하고 평가함으로써 배관 구조물의 효과적인 유지관리가 가능할 것으로 예상된다.

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A Service Life Prediction for Unsound Concrete Under Carbonation Through Probability of Durable Failure (탄산화에 노출된 콘크리트 취약부의 확률론적 내구수명 평가)

  • Kwon, Seung Jun;Park, Sang Soon;Nam, Sang Hyeok;Lho, Byeong Cheol
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.49-58
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    • 2008
  • Generally, steel corrosion occurs in concrete structures due to carbonation in down-town area and underground site and it propagates to degradation of structural performance. In general diagnosis and inspection, only carbonation depth in sound concrete is evaluated but unsound concrete such as joint and cracked area may occur easily in a concrete member due to construction process. In this study, field survey of carbonation for RC columns in down-town area is performed and carbonation depth in joint and cracked concrete including sound area is measured. Probability of durable failure with time is calculated through probability variables such as concrete cover depth and carbonation depth which are obtained from field survey. In addition, service life of the structures is predicted based on the intended probability of durable failure in domestic concrete specification. It is evaluated that in a RC column, various service life is predicted due to local condition and it is rapidly decreased with insufficient cover depth and growth of crack width. It is also evaluated that obtaining cover depth and quality of concrete is very important because the probability of durable failure is closely related with C.O.V. of cover depth.

Performance estimation for Software Reliability Growth Model that Use Plot of Failure Data (고장 데이터의 플롯을 이용한 소프트웨어 신뢰도 성장 모델의 성능평가)

  • Jung, Hye-Jung;Yang, Hae-Sool;Park, In-Soo
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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    • v.10D no.5
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    • pp.829-836
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    • 2003
  • Software Reliability Growth Model that have been studied variously. But measurement of correct parameter of this model is not easy. Specially, estimation of correct model about failure data must be establish and estimation of parameter can consist exactly. To get correct testing, we calculate the normal score and describe the normal probability plot. Use the normal probability plot, we estimate the distribution for failure data. In this paper, we estimate the software reliability growth model for through the normal probability plot. In this research, we applies software reliability growth model through distribution characteristics of failure data. If we see plot, we determine the software reliability growth model, we can make sure superior in model's performance estimation.

Evaluation of Seismic Capacity and Estimation of Earthquake Damage for Existing Unreinforced Masonry Building in Korea (국내 조적조 건물의 내진성능평가 및 지진피해율 상정)

  • Kang, Dae-Eon;Yi, Waon-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.18 no.4 s.94
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    • pp.535-542
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    • 2006
  • In Seoul, more than 80 percent of residential buildings are constructed with unreinforced masonry(URM) buildings in early 1970 to 1990. In general, URM buildings have the advantages of reducing the construction time and easy to construction. However, URM buildings do not have enough strength against the lateral force. Moreover, low rise buildings have not adopted seismic designs, and for that reason a critical damage is expected with an earthquake. And also, the necessity of the seismic performance evaluation of existing building structures is raised through the Taiwan earthquake in 1999. The purpose of this study is to provide basic information for unreinforced masonry building in Korea by application of the proposed seismic evaluation method. In this study, seismic capacities of 50 existing unreinforced masonry buildings are evaluated based on the proposed method. Also, relationships of seismic capacities between Korean earthquake damage ratios of korean unreinforced masonry buildings are estimated. Results of this study were as follows; 1)Seismic retrofit was needed $8{\sim}48%$ in Korean unreinforced masonry buildings. 2)Korean unreinforced masonry buildings were expected to have severe damage under the earthquake intensity level experienced in Japan.

A Study of Keyword Spotting System Based on the Weight of Non-Keyword Model (비핵심어 모델의 가중치 기반 핵심어 검출 성능 향상에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hack-Jin;Kim, Soon-Hyub
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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    • v.10B no.4
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    • pp.381-388
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    • 2003
  • This paper presents a method of giving weights to garbage class clustering and Filler model to improve performance of keyword spotting system and a time-saving method of dialogue speech processing system for keyword spotting by calculating keyword transition probability through speech analysis of task domain users. The point of the method is grouping phonemes with phonetic similarities, which is effective in sensing similar phoneme groups rather than individual phonemes, and the paper aims to suggest five groups of phonemes obtained from the analysis of speech sentences in use in Korean morphology and in stock-trading speech processing system. Besides, task-subject Filler model weights are added to the phoneme groups, and keyword transition probability included in consecutive speech sentences is calculated and applied to the system in order to save time for system processing. To evaluate performance of the suggested system, corpus of 4,970 sentences was built to be used in task domains and a test was conducted with subjects of five people in their twenties and thirties. As a result, FOM with the weights on proposed five phoneme groups accounts for 85%, which has better performance than seven phoneme groups of Yapanel [1] with 88.5% and a little bit poorer performance than LVCSR with 89.8%. Even in calculation time, FOM reaches 0.70 seconds than 0.72 of seven phoneme groups. Lastly, it is also confirmed in a time-saving test that time is saved by 0.04 to 0.07 seconds when keyword transition probability is applied.