• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률론적 성능평가

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Evaluation of Service Life in RC Column under Chloride Attack through Field Investigation: Deterministic and Probabilistic Approaches (염해 실태조사를 통한 철근 콘크리트 교각의 내구수명 평가 - 결정론적 및 확률론적 해석방법)

  • Kwon, Seung-Jun
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.67-74
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    • 2015
  • RC (Reinforced Concrete) structures are considered as cost-benefit and durable however performances of structural safety and durability are degraded due to steel corrosion. Service life in RC structure is differently evaluated due to different local environmental conditions even if it is exposed to the same chloride attack. In the paper, 25 concrete cores from field investigation are obtained from 4 RC columns with duration of 3.5~4.5 years exposed to sea water. Through total chloride content measurement, surface chloride contents and apparent diffusion coefficients are evaluated. Service life of the target structure is estimated through deterministic method based on Fick's $2^{nd}$ Law and probabilistic method based on durability failure probability, respectively. Probability method is evaluated to be more conservative and relatively decreased service life is evaluated in tidal zone and splash zone over 40.0 m. Chloride penetration behavior with coring location from sea level and the present limitations of durability design method are investigated in the paper.

Uncertainties Influencing the Collapse Capacity of Steel Moment-Resisting Frames (철골모멘트 골조의 붕괴성능에 영향을 미치는 불확실성 분석)

  • Shin, Dong-Hyeon;Kim, Hyung-Joon
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.351-359
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    • 2015
  • In order to exactly evaluate the seismic collapse capacity of a structure, probabilistic approach is required by considering uncertainties related to its structural properties and ground motion. Regardless of the types of uncertainties, they influence on the seismic response of a structures and their effects are required to be estimated. An incremental dynamic analysis(IDA) is useful to investigate uncertainty-propagation due to ground motion. In this study, a 3-story steel moment-resisting frame is selected for a prototype frame and analyzed using the IDA. The uncertainty-propagation is assessed with categorized parameters representing epistemic uncertainties, such as the seismic weight, the inherent damping, the yield strength, and the elastic modulus. To do this, the influence of the uncertainty-propagation to the seismic collapse capacity of the prototype frame is probabilistically evaluated using the incremental dynamic analyses based on the Monte-Carlo simulation sampling with the Latin hypercube method. Of various parameters related to epistemic uncertainty-propagation, the inherent damping is investigated to be the most influential parameter on the seismic collapse capacity of the prototype frame.

Seismic Performance Management of Aged Road Facilities Using Deterministic Method vs. Probabilistic Method (확률론적 및 결정론적 방법을 이용한 노후도로시설물 내진성능관리)

  • Kim, Dong Joo;Choi, Ji Hye;Lee, Do Hyung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.40 no.5
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    • pp.455-463
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    • 2020
  • Road facilities with a service life of more than 30 years are expected to triple in the next ten years. The seismic performance of road facilities should be reviewed with consideration of the "Common Application of Seismic Design Standards" issued by Korea's Ministry of Public Administration and Security in 2017. These standards should be applied to all existing road facilities, including retrofitted or seismic-designed facilities, for evaluating seismic performance. In order to manage seismic performance for a large number of facilities, decision-support technology that can provide economic and reliable results is needed. However, the indices method currently used in Korea is a deterministic method, and the seismic performance of individual facilities is evaluated based on qualitative indices so that only retrofitting among road facilities is prioritized. In turn, with the indices method, it is difficult to support decisions other than the decision to prioritize retrofitting. Therefore, it is necessary to use the seismic risk assessment method to overcome such shortcomings and provide useful information such as direct loss, indirect socio-economic loss, and benefit of the investment.

Fire Modeling Uncertainty Analysis in Fire Safety Assessment of Nuclear Power Plants (원자력발전소의 화재안전성 평가에서 화재모델링 불확실성 분석)

  • Kang, Dae-Il;Yang, Joon-Eon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Institute of Fire Science and Engineering Conference
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    • 2011.11a
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    • pp.243-247
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    • 2011
  • 본 논문에서는 원자력발전소의 화재 안전성평가에서 제기되는 화재모델링 불확실성 분석 방법을 검토하고 논의하였다. 원자력발전소의 성능기반 화재 안전성평가에 대해서는 NUREG-1934를, 확률론적 화재 안전성 평가에 대해서는 NUREG/CR-6850를 중심으로 화재 모델링 불확실성 분석 방법을 소개하고 몬테칼로 시뮬레이션을 이용한 불확실성 분석 방법에 대해 논의하였다.

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Estimation of Seismic Performance and Earthquake Damage Ratio of Existing Reinforced Concrete Buildings in Japan (일본의 기존 철근콘트리트건물의 내진성능 및 지진피해율의 평가)

  • 이강석;이리형
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.63-74
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    • 2000
  • The main objective of this paper is to apply as the basic data for development of a methodology to discuss the future earthquake preparedness measures in Korea by investigating the concept and applicabilities of the Japanese Standard for Evaluation of Seismic Performance of Existing RC Buildings developed in Japan among the methodologies of all the countries of the world. This paper describes the seismic performance, Is-index, of existing RC buildings in Tokyo, Japan evaluated by the Japanese Standard, also the relationships between Is-index distribution of existing RC buildings in Tokyo and that of Shizuoka and Chiba Prefecture reported already in reference[4][5][6] are investigated. And from the comparison with Is-index to buildings damaged by earthquakes experienced in Japan, the damage ratio due to severe earthquake of 3 districts mentioned above is estimated based on the probabilistic point of view. The results of this study can be utilized to identify urgently required earthquake preparedness measures with highest priority in existing RC buildings, and the methodology to evaluate the seismic performance of existing RC buildings in Japan, statistics analysis method and the methodology to estimate earthquake damage ratio based on the probabilistic point of view shown in this study can be recommended to develop a methodology to discuss the future earthquake preparedness measures in Korea.

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Probability-Based LCCO2 Evaluation for Undergroung Structture with Repairing Timings Exposed to Carbonation (탄산화에 노출된 지하구조물의 보수횟수에 따른 LCCO2 평가)

  • Kwon, Seung-Jun
    • Journal of the Korean Recycled Construction Resources Institute
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.239-246
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    • 2017
  • RC(Reinforced Concrete) structures can keep their performance during intended service life through initial service life and extension of the life through repairs. In the deterministic repairing method, cost and the related $CO_2$ emission increase with step-shaped escalation, however continuous results can be obtained through probabilistic repairing technique, and this is capable of reducing $CO_2$ emission through $CO_2$ absorption. In the work, repairing timing and $CO_2$ emission/absorption are evaluated based on the different methods like deterministic and probabilistic manner. The probabilistic technique considering $CO_2$ absorption with carbonation progress is evaluated to be very effective to reduction of $CO_2$ emission through extension of initial and additional service life due to repairs. When the variations of the service life from initial construction and repair material can be determined, the proposed technique can contribute to reduction of cost and $CO_2$ with decreasing repairing number.

A Sensitivity Study on Nuclide Release from the Near-field of a Pyroprocessed Waste Repository System: Part 2. A Deterministic Approach (파이로처리 폐기물 처분 시스템 근계 영역 내 핵종 유출 민감도: 제 2 부 결정론적 접근)

  • Lee, Youn-Myoung;Jeong, Jongtae
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.37-43
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    • 2014
  • A parametric sensitivity to the annual exposure dose rate to the farming exposure group has been deterministically carried out for three principal elements identified in the near-field of the pyroprocessed waste repository system as a series study of Part 1 of the coupled paper with the same title. Credit time for both metal and ceramic containers, annual nuclide release rete and the degree of loss of bentonite buffer around the container are selected and investigated deterministically for important nuclides. To this end the A-KRS has been assessed and then compared among each other with the normal, the worst, and the best case scenarios associated with their extreme values these elements could have. All the elements are shown to be sensitive to the results as was in Part 1. Methodology studied through this study and the results are expected to make a good feedback to the repository design.

A Study on the Development of the Seismic Fragility Functions of the High Speed Railway Tunnels in use (기존 고속철도 터널의 지진취약도 함수 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hongkyoon;Shin, Chulsik;Lee, Taehyung;Lee, Jonggun;Park, Duhee
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.15 no.11
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    • pp.67-75
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    • 2014
  • In this study, the staged seismic performance evaluations were conducted to the 91 high speed railway tunnels in use for checking whether to comply with the recent design criteria or not. In addition, the seismic fragility functions of the tunnels were developed to allow the probabilistic risk assessment. The results of the staged seismic performance evaluations which consist of a preliminary assessment and a detailed assessment, show that the tunnels comply with the recent design criteria. With reference to the results of previous studies, a form of the proposed seismic fragility functions was set as a log-normal distribution by PGA, and the parameters of the functions were determined by using the probability of damage for the design PGA level. The seismic fragility functions were developed for each types (Cut & Cover, NATM) of tunnels. The seismic fragility functions from this study and the existing research results (FEMA, 2004) were compared to evaluate the seismic performance level of the tunnels, as a result the tunnels of this study were relatively superior to the ASSM tunnels on the seismic performance.

Analysis of the Optimal Separation Distance between Multiple Thermal Energy Storage (TES) Caverns Based on Probabilistic Analysis (확률론적 해석에 기반한 다중 열저장공동의 적정 이격거리 분석)

  • Park, Dohyun;Kim, Hyunwoo;Park, Jung-Wook;Park, Eui-Seob;Sunwoo, Choon
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.155-165
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    • 2014
  • Multiple thermal energy storage (TES) caverns can be used for storing thermal energy on a large scale and for a high-aspect-ratio heat storage design to provide good thermal performance. It may also be necessary to consider the use of multiple caverns with a reduced length when a single, long tunnel-shaped cavern is not suitable for connection to aboveground heat production and injection equipments. When using multiple TES caverns, the separation distance between the caverns is one of the significant factors that should be considered in the design of storage space, and the optimal separation distance should be determined based on a quantitative stability criterion. In this paper, we described a numerical approach for determining the optimal separation distance between multiple caverns for large-scale TES utilization. For reliable stability evaluation of multiple caverns, we employed a probabilistic method which can quantitatively take into account the uncertainty of input parameters by probability distributions, unlike conventional deterministic approaches. The present approach was applied to the design of a conceptual TES model to store hot water for district heating. The probabilistic stability results of this application demonstrated that the approach in our work can be effectively used as a decision-making tool to determine the optimal separation distance between multiple caverns. In addition, the probabilistic results were compared to those obtained through a deterministic analysis, and the comparison results suggested that care should taken in selecting the acceptable level of stability when using deterministic approaches.

Optimum Service Life Management Based on Probabilistic Life-Cycle Cost-Benefit Analysis (확률론적 생애주기비용-이익분석 기반 수명관리 최적화 기법)

  • Kim, Sunyong
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.19-25
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    • 2016
  • Engineering structures including civil infrastructures require a life-cycle cost and benefit during their service lives. The service life of a structure can be extended through appropriate inspection and maintenance actions. In general, this service life extension requires more life-cycle cost and cumulative benefit. For this reason, structure managers need to make a rational decision regarding the service life management considering both the cost and benefit simultaneously. In this paper, the probabilistic decision tool to determine the optimal service life based on cost-benefit analysis is presented. This decision tool requires an estimation of the time-dependent effective cost-benefit under uncertainty to formulate the optimization problem. The effective cost-benefit is expressed by the difference between the cumulative benefit and life-cycle cost of a deteriorating structure over time. The objective of the optimization problem is maximizing the effective cost-benefit, and the associated solutions are the optimal service life and maintenance interventions. The decision tool presented in this paper can be applied to any deteriorating engineering structure.