• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률러닝

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AutoML and CNN-based Soft-voting Ensemble Classification Model For Road Traffic Emerging Risk Detection (도로교통 이머징 리스크 탐지를 위한 AutoML과 CNN 기반 소프트 보팅 앙상블 분류 모델)

  • Jeon, Byeong-Uk;Kang, Ji-Soo;Chung, Kyungyong
    • Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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    • v.11 no.7
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    • pp.14-20
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    • 2021
  • Most accidents caused by road icing in winter lead to major accidents. Because it is difficult for the driver to detect the road icing in advance. In this work, we study how to accurately detect road traffic emerging risk using AutoML and CNN's ensemble model that use both structured and unstructured data. We train CNN-based road traffic emerging risk classification model using images that are unstructured data and AutoML-based road traffic emerging risk classification model using weather data that is structured data, respectively. After that the ensemble model is designed to complement the CNN-based classification model by inputting probability values derived from of each models. Through this, improves road traffic emerging risk classification performance and alerts drivers more accurately and quickly to enable safe driving.

Development of a Stochastic Snow Depth Prediction Model Using a Bayesian Deep Learning Method (베이지안 딥러닝 기법을 이용한 확률적 적설심 예측 모델 개발)

  • Jeong, Youngjoon;Lee, Sang-ik;Lee, Jonghyuk;Seo, Byunghun;Kim, Dongsu;Seo, Yejin;Choi, Won
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.64 no.6
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    • pp.35-41
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    • 2022
  • Heavy snow damage can be prevented in advance with an appropriate security system. To develop the security system, we developed a model that predicts snow depth after a few hours when the snow depth is observed, and utilized it to calculate a failure probability with various types of greenhouses and observed snow depth data. We compared the Markov chain model and Bayesian long short-term memory models with varying input data. Markov chain model showed the worst performance, and the models that used only past snow depth data outperformed the models that used other weather data with snow depth (temperature, humidity, wind speed). Also, the models that utilized 1-hour past data outperformed the models that utilized 3-hour data and 6-hour data. Finally, the Bayesian LSTM model that uses 1-hour snow depth data was selected to predict snow depth. We compared the selected model and the shifting method, which uses present data as future data without prediction, and the model outperformed the shifting method when predicting data after 11-24 hours.

Comparative analysis of performance of BI-LSTM and GRU algorithm for predicting the number of Covid-19 confirmed cases (코로나 확진자 수 예측을 위한 BI-LSTM과 GRU 알고리즘의 성능 비교 분석)

  • Kim, Jae-Ho;Kim, Jang-Young
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.187-192
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    • 2022
  • Even the announcing date for the staring date of "With Corona" has been decided, still many people have not completed vaccination, the most important condition for starting the With Corona, because of concerns for its side effects. In addition, although the economy may can be recovered by the With Corona, but the number of infected people may can be surged. In this paper, in order to awaken the people for the awareness of Corona 19 in advance of the With Corona, the Corona 19 is predicted through a non-linear probability process. Here, among the deep learning RNN, BI-LSTM, which is a bidirectional LSTM, and GRU, gates decreased than LSTM have been used. And this has been compared and analyzed through train set, test set, loss function, residual analysis, normal distribution, and autocorrelation, and compared and predicted for which has a better performance.

Linkage of Numerical Analysis Model and Machine Learning for Real-time Flood Risk Prediction (도시홍수 위험도 실시간 표출을 위한 수치해석 모형과 기계학습의 연계)

  • Kim, Hyun Il;Han, Kun Yeun;Kim, Tae Hyung;Choi, Kyu Hyun;Cho, Hyo Seop
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.332-332
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    • 2021
  • 도시화가 상당히 이뤄지고 기습적인 폭우의 발생이 불확실하게 나타나는 시점에서 재산 및 인명피해를 야기할 수 있는 내수침수에 대한 위험도가 증가하고 있다. 내수침수에 대한 예측을 위하여 실측강우 또는 확률강우량 시나리오를 참조하고 연구대상 지역에 대한 1차원 그리고 2차원 수리학적 해석을 실시하는 연구가 오랫동안 진행되어 왔으나, 수치해석 모형의 경우 다양한 수문-지형학적 자료 및 계측 자료를 요구하고 집약적인 계산과정을 통한 단기간 예측에 어려움이 있음이 언급되어 왔다. 본 연구에서는 위와 같은 문제점을 해결하기 위하여 단일 도시 배수분구를 대상으로 관측 강우 자료, 1, 2차원 수치해석 모형, 기계학습 및 딥러닝 기법을 적용한 실시간 홍수위험지도 예측 모형을 개발하였다. 강우자료에 대하여 실시간으로 홍수량을 예측할 수 있도록 LSTM(Long-Short Term Memory) 기법을 적용하였으며, 전국단위 강우에 대한 다양한 1차원 도시유출해석 결과를 학습시킴으로써 예측을 수행하였다. 침수심의 공간적 분포의 경우 로지스틱 회귀를 이용하여, 기준 침수심에 대한 예측을 각각 수행하였다. 홍수위험 등급의 경우 침수심, 유속 그리고 잔해인자를 고려한 홍수위험등급 공식을 적용하여 산정하였으며, 이 결과를 랜덤포레스트(Random Forest)에 학습함으로써 실시간 예측을 수행할 수 있도록 개발하였다. 침수범위 및 홍수위험등급에 대한 예측은 격자 단위로 이뤄졌으며, 검증 자료의 부족으로 침수 흔적도를 통하여 검증된 2차원 침수해석 결과와 비교함으로써 예측력을 평가하였다. 본 기법은 특정 관측강우 또는 예측강우 자료가 입력되었을 때에, 도시 유역 단위로 접근이 불가하여 통제해야 할 구간을 실시간으로 예측하여 관리할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

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A Study on the Hydrological Quantitative Precipitation Forecast(HQPF) based on Machine Learning for Rainfall Impact Forecasting (호우 영향예보를 위한 머신러닝 기반의 수문학적 정량강우예측(HQPF) 연구)

  • Choo, Kyung-Su;Shin, Yoon-Hu;Kim, Sung-Min;Jee, Yongkeun;Lee, Young-Mi;Kang, Dong-Ho;Kim, Byung-Sik
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.63-63
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    • 2022
  • 기상 예보자료는 발생 가능한 재난의 예방 및 대비 차원에서 매우 중요한 자료로 활용되고 있다. 우리나라 기상청에서는 동네예보를 통해 5km 공간해상도의 1시간 간격 초단기예보와, 6시간 간격 정량강우예보(Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, QPF)의 단기예보 정보를 제공하고 있다. 그러나 이와 같은 예보자료는 강우량의 시·공간변화가 큰 집중호우와 같은 기상자료를 활용한 수문학적인 해석에는 한계가 있다. 예보자료를 수문학에 활용하기 위한 시·공간적 해상도 개선뿐만 아니라 방대한 기상 및 기후 자료의 예측성능을 개선하기 위한 다양한 연구가 진행되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 기상청이 제공하는 지역 앙상블 예측 시스템(Local ENsemble prediction System, LENS)와 종관기상관측시스템(ASOS) 및 방재기상관측시스템(AWS) 관측 데이터 및 동네예보에 기계학습 방법을 적용하여 수문학적 정량적 강수량 예측(Hydrological Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, HQPF) 정보를 생산하였다. 전처리 과정을 통해 모든 데이터의 시간해상도와 공간해상도를 동일한 해상도로 변환하였으며, 예측 변수의 인자 분석을 통해 기계학습의 예측 변수를 도출하였다. 기계학습 방법으로는 처리속도와 확장성을 고려하여 XGBoost(eXtreme Gradient Boosting) 방식을 적용하였으며, 집중호우에서의 예측정확도를 높이기 위해 확률매칭(PM) 방식을 적용하였다. 생산된 HQPF의 성능을 평가하기 위해 2020년에 발생한 14건의 호우 사상을 대상으로 태풍형과 비태풍형으로 구분하여 검증을 수행하였다.

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Effective Speaker Recognition Technology Using Noise (잡음을 활용한 효과적인 화자 인식 기술)

  • Ko, Suwan;Kang, Minji;Bang, Sehee;Jung, Wontae;Lee, Kyungroul
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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    • 2022.07a
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    • pp.259-262
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    • 2022
  • 정보화 시대 스마트폰이 대중화되고 실시간 인터넷 사용이 가능해짐에 따라, 본인을 식별하기 위한 사용자 인증이 필수적으로 요구된다. 대표적인 사용자 인증 기술로는 아이디와 비밀번호를 이용한 비밀번호 인증이 있지만, 키보드로부터 입력받는 이러한 인증 정보는 시각 장애인이나 손 사용이 불편한 사람, 고령층과 같은 사람들이 많은 서비스로부터 요구되는 아이디와 비밀번호를 기억하고 입력하기에는 불편함이 따를 뿐만 아니라, 키로거와 같은 공격에 노출되는 문제점이 존재한다. 이러한 문제점을 해결하기 위하여, 자신의 신체의 특징을 활용하는 생체 인증이 대두되고 있으며, 그중 목소리로 사용자를 인증한다면, 효과적으로 비밀번호 인증의 한계점을 극복할 수 있다. 이러한 화자 인식 기술은 KT의 기가 지니와 같은 음성 인식 기술에서 활용되고 있지만, 목소리는 위조 및 변조가 비교적 쉽기에 지문이나 홍채 등을 활용하는 인증 방식보다 정확도가 낮고 음성 인식 오류 또한 높다는 한계점이 존재한다. 상기 목소리를 활용한 사용자 인증 기술인 화자 인식 기술을 활용하기 위하여, 사용자 목소리를 학습시켰으며, 목소리의 주파수를 추출하는 MFCC 알고리즘을 이용해 테스트 목소리와 정확도를 측정하였다. 그리고 악의적인 공격자가 사용자 목소리를 흉내 내는 경우나 사용자 목소리를 마이크로 녹음하는 등의 방법으로 획득하였을 경우에는 높은 확률로 인증의 우회가 가능한 것을 검증하였다. 이에 따라, 더욱 효과적으로 화자 인식의 정확도를 향상시키기 위하여, 본 논문에서는 목소리에 잡음을 섞는 방법으로 화자를 인식하는 방안을 제안한다. 제안하는 방안은 잡음이 정확도에 매우 민감하게 반영되기 때문에, 기존의 인증 우회 방법을 무력화하고, 더욱 효과적으로 목소리를 활용한 화자 인식 기술을 제공할 것으로 사료된다.

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Comparative Study of AI Models for Reliability Function Estimation in NPP Digital I&C System Failure Prediction (원전 디지털 I&C 계통 고장예측을 위한 신뢰도 함수 추정 인공지능 모델 비교연구)

  • DaeYoung Lee;JeongHun Lee;SeungHyeok Yang
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2023
  • The nuclear power plant(NPP)'s Instrumentation and Control(I&C) system periodically conducts integrity checks for the maintenance of self-diagnostic function during normal operation. Additionally, it performs functionality and performance checks during planned preventive maintenance periods. However, there is a need for technological development to diagnose failures and prevent accidents in advance. In this paper, we studied methods for estimating the reliability function by utilizing environmental data and self-diagnostic data of the I&C equipment. To obtain failure data, we assumed probability distributions for component features of the I&C equipment and generated virtual failure data. Using this failure data, we estimated the reliability function using representative artificial intelligence(AI) models used in survival analysis(DeepSurve, DeepHit). And we also estimated the reliability function through the Cox regression model of the traditional semi-parametric method. We confirmed the feasibility through the residual lifetime calculations based on environmental and diagnostic data.

Artificial Intelligence and College Mathematics Education (인공지능(Artificial Intelligence)과 대학수학교육)

  • Lee, Sang-Gu;Lee, Jae Hwa;Ham, Yoonmee
    • Communications of Mathematical Education
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2020
  • Today's healthcare, intelligent robots, smart home systems, and car sharing are already innovating with cutting-edge information and communication technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), the Internet of Things, the Internet of Intelligent Things, and Big data. It is deeply affecting our lives. In the factory, robots have been working for humans more than several decades (FA, OA), AI doctors are also working in hospitals (Dr. Watson), AI speakers (Giga Genie) and AI assistants (Siri, Bixby, Google Assistant) are working to improve Natural Language Process. Now, in order to understand AI, knowledge of mathematics becomes essential, not a choice. Thus, mathematicians have been given a role in explaining such mathematics that make these things possible behind AI. Therefore, the authors wrote a textbook 'Basic Mathematics for Artificial Intelligence' by arranging the mathematics concepts and tools needed to understand AI and machine learning in one or two semesters, and organized lectures for undergraduate and graduate students of various majors to explore careers in artificial intelligence. In this paper, we share our experience of conducting this class with the full contents in http://matrix.skku.ac.kr/math4ai/.

A Study on the Design of Prediction Model for Safety Evaluation of Partial Discharge (부분 방전의 안전도 평가를 위한 예측 모델 설계)

  • Lee, Su-Il;Ko, Dae-Sik
    • Journal of Platform Technology
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.10-21
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    • 2020
  • Partial discharge occurs a lot in high-voltage power equipment such as switchgear, transformers, and switch gears. Partial discharge shortens the life of the insulator and causes insulation breakdown, resulting in large-scale damage such as a power outage. There are several types of partial discharge that occur inside the product and the surface. In this paper, we design a predictive model that can predict the pattern and probability of occurrence of partial discharge. In order to analyze the designed model, learning data for each type of partial discharge was collected through the UHF sensor by using a simulator that generates partial discharge. The predictive model designed in this paper was designed based on CNN during deep learning, and the model was verified through learning. To learn about the designed model, 5000 training data were created, and the form of training data was used as input data for the model by pre-processing the 3D raw data input from the UHF sensor as 2D data. As a result of the experiment, it was found that the accuracy of the model designed through learning has an accuracy of 0.9972. It was found that the accuracy of the proposed model was higher in the case of learning by making the data into a two-dimensional image and learning it in the form of a grayscale image.

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A Two-Stage Learning Method of CNN and K-means RGB Cluster for Sentiment Classification of Images (이미지 감성분류를 위한 CNN과 K-means RGB Cluster 이-단계 학습 방안)

  • Kim, Jeongtae;Park, Eunbi;Han, Kiwoong;Lee, Junghyun;Lee, Hong Joo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.139-156
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    • 2021
  • The biggest reason for using a deep learning model in image classification is that it is possible to consider the relationship between each region by extracting each region's features from the overall information of the image. However, the CNN model may not be suitable for emotional image data without the image's regional features. To solve the difficulty of classifying emotion images, many researchers each year propose a CNN-based architecture suitable for emotion images. Studies on the relationship between color and human emotion were also conducted, and results were derived that different emotions are induced according to color. In studies using deep learning, there have been studies that apply color information to image subtraction classification. The case where the image's color information is additionally used than the case where the classification model is trained with only the image improves the accuracy of classifying image emotions. This study proposes two ways to increase the accuracy by incorporating the result value after the model classifies an image's emotion. Both methods improve accuracy by modifying the result value based on statistics using the color of the picture. When performing the test by finding the two-color combinations most distributed for all training data, the two-color combinations most distributed for each test data image were found. The result values were corrected according to the color combination distribution. This method weights the result value obtained after the model classifies an image's emotion by creating an expression based on the log function and the exponential function. Emotion6, classified into six emotions, and Artphoto classified into eight categories were used for the image data. Densenet169, Mnasnet, Resnet101, Resnet152, and Vgg19 architectures were used for the CNN model, and the performance evaluation was compared before and after applying the two-stage learning to the CNN model. Inspired by color psychology, which deals with the relationship between colors and emotions, when creating a model that classifies an image's sentiment, we studied how to improve accuracy by modifying the result values based on color. Sixteen colors were used: red, orange, yellow, green, blue, indigo, purple, turquoise, pink, magenta, brown, gray, silver, gold, white, and black. It has meaning. Using Scikit-learn's Clustering, the seven colors that are primarily distributed in the image are checked. Then, the RGB coordinate values of the colors from the image are compared with the RGB coordinate values of the 16 colors presented in the above data. That is, it was converted to the closest color. Suppose three or more color combinations are selected. In that case, too many color combinations occur, resulting in a problem in which the distribution is scattered, so a situation fewer influences the result value. Therefore, to solve this problem, two-color combinations were found and weighted to the model. Before training, the most distributed color combinations were found for all training data images. The distribution of color combinations for each class was stored in a Python dictionary format to be used during testing. During the test, the two-color combinations that are most distributed for each test data image are found. After that, we checked how the color combinations were distributed in the training data and corrected the result. We devised several equations to weight the result value from the model based on the extracted color as described above. The data set was randomly divided by 80:20, and the model was verified using 20% of the data as a test set. After splitting the remaining 80% of the data into five divisions to perform 5-fold cross-validation, the model was trained five times using different verification datasets. Finally, the performance was checked using the test dataset that was previously separated. Adam was used as the activation function, and the learning rate was set to 0.01. The training was performed as much as 20 epochs, and if the validation loss value did not decrease during five epochs of learning, the experiment was stopped. Early tapping was set to load the model with the best validation loss value. The classification accuracy was better when the extracted information using color properties was used together than the case using only the CNN architecture.