• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률대응법

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A new method for calculating quantiles of grouped data based on the frequency polygon (집단화된 통계자료의 도수다각형에 근거한 새로운 분위수 계산법)

  • Kim, Hyuk Joo
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.383-393
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    • 2017
  • When we deal with grouped statistical data, it is desirable to use a calculation method that gives as close value to the true value of a statistic as possible. In this paper, we suggested a new method to calculate the quantiles of grouped data. The main idea of the suggested method is calculating the data values by partitioning the pentagons, that correspond to the class intervals in the frequency polygon drawn according to the histogram, into parts with equal area. We compared this method with existing methods through simulations using some datasets from introductory statistics textbooks. In the simulation study, we simulated as many data values as given in each class interval using the inverse transform method, on the basis of the distribution that has the shape given by the frequency polygon. Using the sum of squares of differences from quantiles of the simulated data as a criterion, the suggested method was found to have better performance than existing methods for almost all quartiles and deciles.

A study on reliability analysis model of the repair and replacement cycle of a building which utilizes Monte Carlo Simulation (몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 활용한 건축물 수선교체주기 신뢰성 분석 모델에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jong-Rok;Jung, Young-Han;Son, Jae-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.41-50
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    • 2010
  • This study presented a model that can enable a reliability analysis for the repair and replacement cycle of a building by using background repair and replacement data and expert opinion as foundation data and applying Monte Carlo Simulation. The presented model offers the time of the repair and replacement of building elements for the period of a year, and supports the prediction of repair and replacement and expenses demand in advance while planning the maintenance of a building. In addition, the model will significantly reduce the risks to the building owner with regard to maintenance decisions. In addition, when a person in charge of the maintenance of large-scale building assets is having difficulties making decisions regarding the repair and replacement of existing building elements due to a lack of background data to support a long-term policy on the repair and replacement requirements, an engineering solution that can ensure the adequacy of this is provided. In summary, it can be largely divided into three study results. First, a method of estimating the repair and replacement cycle that can deal with the development of a construction system was developed. Second, a probabilistic methodology that can quantify the risk of the repair and replacement cycle was proposed. Third, the proposed model can be used as a means of supporting designer and constructor in making decisions for the life cycle plan of a building during a construction project.

Multidimensional Analysis of Unstructured Data and Trends in Architectural Review Opinions of Small and Medium-Sized Apartment Projects (다차원 분석방법을 활용한 중소규모 공동주택 건축심의 의견의 경향과 비정형 데이터로서의 특성분석)

  • Kim, Jinhee;Hwang, Taeeon;Kim, Jae-Sik;Huh, Youngki
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.74-80
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    • 2023
  • This study examines the characteristics of architectural review opinions as unstructured data, focusing on the most challenging risk for developers of small and medium-sized apartment projects in response to the increasing number of single-person households in Korea. Using multidimensional analysis methods, the study analyzes the review opinions of 25 projects in B City. Correspondence analysis and MDS (Multidimensional Scale) analysis show that, consistent with prior research, the keywords related to 'structure' and 'planning' dominate architectural review opinions in B City. While the MDS model's stress is very poor at 34.4%, correspondence analysis reveals that this is due to the characteristics of unstructured data in architectural reviews. In addition, the non-structured data analyzed in this study, such as architectural review opinions, exhibited a probability distribution with low kurtosis and high skewness, as they involved various combinations and occurrences of data depending on the discretion of the review committee members and the specific formats of different local governments. This often led to the emergence of keywords that differed significantly from commonly mentioned terms. Although the study has some limitations, it provides a foundation for future detailed analysis by identifying the characteristics of architectural review opinions as unstructured data.

The Effect of Regular Exercise on anxiety Level of Older People (노인들의 규칙적인 체육활동이 노후불안 수준에 미치는 영향)

  • Jeon, Ik-Gi;Lee, Sun Hee
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.953-968
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    • 2008
  • This research was performed to recognize anxiety level of older people, to find out anxiety level after or before regular exercises, and to find out how much anxiety level could be lowered by the sports activities. This research selected a population among the students who enrolled at sport activity classes (e, g., physical exercises, gate ball, volume dance) at L, S, J, Y (a), Y (b), D older people college located in Seoul and Gyoenggi area. 200 of the population were chosen as candidates by convenience sampling, nonprobability sampling. Considering the age of the candidates, total 200 cases were collected by using two methods (survey and interview) simultaneously. The data assessment was made by SPSS 12.0 Version. Error tolerance in statistics is .05. The data was analyzed by using frequency analysis, paired t-test and independent t-test. After analyzing anxiety awareness level after and before regular exercises, anxiety of older people are classified by four factors. First, anxiety for loss is 3.756 (M=3.756) before exercises, while 1.942 (M=1.942) after exercises. Second, fear for aging is 3.443 before exercises and 2.243 after exercises. Third, anxiety for physical appearance is 3.253 before exercises and 2.310 after exercises. Finally, anxiety caused by psychological insecurity is 3.060 before exercises, while 1.666 after exercises. Error of tolerance for all factors falls within .001. Anxiety score after exercises is lower than that of before exercises for every factor as well. As a result, regular physical exercises appeared to reduce anxiety level of older people.

An Investigation of Reliability and Safety Factors in RC Flexural Members Designed by Current WSD Standard Code (현행(現行) 허용응력설계법(許容應力設計法)으로 설계(設計)되는 RC 휨부재(部材)의 신뢰성(信賴性)과 안전율(安全率) 고찰(考察))

  • Shin, Hyun Mook;Cho, Hyo Nam;Chung, Hwan Ho
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.33-42
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    • 1981
  • Current standard code for R.C. design consists of two conventional design parts, so called WSD and USD, which are based on ACI 318-63 and 318-71 code provisions. The safety factors of our WSD and USD design criteria which are taken primarily from ACI 318-63 code are considered to be not appropriate compared to out country's design and construction practices. Furthermore, even the ACI safety factors are not determined from probabilistic study but merely from experiences and practices. This study investigates the safety level of R.C. flexural members designed by the current WSD safety provisions based on Second Moment Reliability theory, and proposes a rational but efficient way of determining the nominal safety factors and the associated flexural allowable stresses of steel bars and concretes in order to provide a consistent level of target reliability. Cornell's Mean First-Order Second Moment Method formulae by a log normal transformation of resistance and load output variables are adopted as the reliability analysis method for this study. The compressive allowable stress formulae are derived by a unique approach in which the balanced steel ratios of the resulting design are chosen to be the corresponding under-reinforced sections designed by strength design method with an optimum reinforcing ratio. The target reliability index for the safety provisions are considered to be ${\beta}=4$ that is well suited for our level of construction and design practices. From a series of numerical applications to investigate the safety and reliability of R.C. flexural members designed by current WSD code, it has been found that the design based on WSD provision results in uneconomical design because of unusual and inconsistent reliability. A rational set of reliability based safety factors and allowable stress of steel bars and concrete for flexural members is proposed by providing the appropriate target reliability ${\beta}=4$.

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An Outlook on Cereal Grains Production in South Korea Based on Crop Growth Simulation under the RCP8.5 Climate Change Scenarios (RCP8.5 기후조건의 작물생육모의에 근거한 우리나라 곡물생산 전망)

  • Kim, Dae-Jun;Kim, Soo-Ock;Moon, Kyung-Hwan;Yun, Jin-I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.132-141
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    • 2012
  • Climate change impact assessment of cereal crop production in South Korea was performed using land attributes and daily weather data at a farm scale as inputs to crop models. Farmlands in South Korea were grouped into 68 crop-simulation zone units (CZU) based on major mountains and rivers as well as existing land use information. Daily weather data at a 1-km grid spacing under the A1B- and RCP8.5 scenarios were generated stochastically to obtain decadal mean of daily data. These data were registered to the farmland grid cells and spatially averaged to represent climate conditions in each CZU. Monthly climate data for each decade in 2001~2100 were transformed to 30 sets of daily weather data for each CZU by using a stochastic weather generator. Soil data and crop management information for 68 CZU were used as inputs to the CERES-rice, CERE-barley and CROPGRO-soybean models calibrated to represent the genetic features of major domestic cultivars in South Korea. Results from the models suggested that the heading or flowering of rice, winter barley and soybean could be accelerated in the future. The grain-fill period of winter barley could be extended, resulting in much higher yield of winter barley in most CZUs than that of rice. Among the three major cereal grain crops in Korea, rice seems most vulnerable to negative impact of climate change, while little impact of climate change is expected on soybeans. Because a positive effect of climate change is projected for winter barley, policy in agricultural production should pay more attention to facilitate winter barley production as an adaptation strategy for the national food security.

Evaluation of Maritime Safety Technology for Official Development Assistance (ODA) (국제협력사업 추진을 위한 해사안전기술 평가 연구)

  • Oh, Se-Woong;Jeon, Tae-Byung;Lee, Moon-Jin;Suh, Sang-Hyun;Cho, Dong-Oh
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.81-91
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    • 2010
  • IMO(International Maritime Organization) and the Shipping World rave complied with various kinds of international regulations for maritime safety and marine environmental protection, but the main reason of maritime accidents is that developing countries cannot implement maritime safety related regulations. Although Korea has been a member of the "A group" council of IMO, maritime technology transfer records of Korea are not good. To promote the project of official development assistance in Korea, it is required to select the technology which has a high degree of importance in the fields of maritime safety and has a high degree of demand on the transfer to developing countries, and to concentrate on the selected technology. So, it is necessary to draw valuation factors for maritime safety technology and to decide the priority in order among maritime safety technologies on the basis of valuation factors. Because the weights which show the degree of importance among valuation factors are different from factor to factor, interdependent relationship between factors should be considered on evaluation. In this study, the valuation factors were divided into three groups as the maturity of maritime safety technology, the promotion probability of projects and the degree of importance of technology, and the detailed factors of each group were drawn. A model which used Fuzzy AHP and limiting probability to consider the weights of importance and correlation among valuation factors was developed. To adopt this model, nine types of maritime safety technology in the field of maritime safety information were selected and points were scored for each technology through evaluation. In conclusion, first, ENC related technology was scored to be the highest as 0.0139. Second, the point of ship monitoring technology was scored as 0.0133. Last, oil spill response technology was scored as 0.0132.

A Proposal for Simplified Velocity Estimation for Practical Applicability (실무 적용성이 용이한 간편 유속 산정식 제안)

  • Tai-Ho Choo;Jong-Cheol Seo; Hyeon-Gu Choi;Kun-Hak Chun
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.75-82
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    • 2023
  • Data for measuring the flow rate of streams are used as important basic data for the development and maintenance of water resources, and many experts are conducting research to make more accurate measurements. Especially, in Korea, monsoon rains and heavy rains are concentrated in summer due to the nature of the climate, so floods occur frequently. Therefore, it is necessary to measure the flow rate most accurately during a flood to predict and prevent flooding. Thus, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) introduces 1, 2, 3 point method using a flow meter as one way to measure the average flow rate. However, it is difficult to calculate the average flow rate with the existing 1, 2, 3 point method alone.This paper proposes a new 1, 2, 3 point method formula, which is more accurate, utilizing one probabilistic entropy concept. This is considered to be a highly empirical study that can supplement the limitations of existing measurement methods. Data and Flume data were used in the number of holesman to demonstrate the utility of the proposed formula. As a result of the analysis, in the case of Flume Data, the existing USGS 1 point method compared to the measured value was 7.6% on average, 8.6% on the 2 point method, and 8.1% on the 3 point method. In the case of Coleman Data, the 1 point method showed an average error rate of 5%, the 2 point method 5.6% and the 3 point method 5.3%. On the other hand, the proposed formula using the concept of entropy reduced the error rate by about 60% compared to the existing method, with the Flume Data averaging 4.7% for the 1 point method, 5.7% for the 2 point method, and 5.2% for the 3 point method. In addition, Coleman Data showed an average error of 2.5% in the 1 point method, 3.1% in the 2 point method, and 2.8% in the 3 point method, reducing the error rate by about 50% compared to the existing method.This study can calculate the average flow rate more accurately than the existing 1, 2, 3 point method, which can be useful in many ways, including future river disaster management, design and administration.