• Title/Summary/Keyword: 혹스 과정

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An overview of Hawkes processes and their applications (혹스 과정의 개요 및 응용)

  • Mijeong Kim
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.309-322
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    • 2023
  • The Hawkes process is a point process with self-exciting characteristics. It has been mainly used to describe seismic phenomena in which aftershocks occur due to the main earthquake. Recently, it has been used to explain various phenomena with self-exciting properties, such as the spread of infectious diseases and the spread of news on SNS. The Hawkes process can be flexibly modified according to the characteristics of events by using various types of excitation functions. Since it is difficult to implement a maximum likelihood estimator numerically, estimation methods have been improved until recently. In this paper, the conditional intensity function and excitation function are explained to describe the Hawkes process. Then, existing examples of Hawkes processes used in seismic, epidemiological, criminal, and financial fields are described and estimation methods are introduced. I analyze earthquakes that occurred in gyeongsang-do, Korea from November 2017 to December 2022, using R package ETAS.