• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.3-46
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• 1997

본 논문은 우리나라 저축률(貯蓄率)의 결정요인을 실증적으로 분석하는 데 목적을 두고 있다. 특히 본 논문은 생애주기가설/항상소득가설(生涯週期假說/恒常所得假說)에 바탕을 두고 거시(巨視)시계열자료와 미시(微視)횡단면자료를 모두 분석함으로써 개별경제주체의 저축행위와 경제전체의 저축간의 일관된 관계를 밝히려고 하였다. 표준적인 생애주기가설/항상소득가설에 의하면, 저축은 소득(所得)의 일시적 변동으로부터 소비(消費)를 독립시키려는 개별소비자의 합리적 선택의 결과이다. 따라서 개별소비자의 저축은 단기적으로는 소득이 일시적으로 높은 해(년(年))에, 그리고 보다 장기적으로는 일생동안 가장 높은 수준의 소득을 벌게 되는 장년기간중에 가장 크게 된다. 본 논문의 실증결과는 이러한 생애주기가설/항상소득가설의 예측이 실제자료와 대체로 일치함을 보여준다. 거시자료 분석결과에 의하면 우리나라 저축률의 연간변동은 소득성장률(所得成長率)과 인구연령구조(人口年齡構造)의 변동에 의해서 잘 설명되는 것으로 나타난다. 또한 미시자료 분석결과를 보더라도 소득이 일시적으로 높은 가계나 경제활동연령인구의 비중이 높은 가계일수록 더 많은 저축을 하는 것으로 나타난다. 따라서 생애주기가설/항상소득가설은 우리나라 저축률의 결정을 설명하는 데 매우 유용하다고 판단된다. 본 논문은 또한 소득성장률이나 연령구조 외에 이자율, 유동성 제약, 그리고 예비적 저축동기 등이 저축에 미치는 영향에 대해서도 살펴보았다. 실증결과에 의하면 실질이자율은 저축률을 다소 증대시키는 효과가 있으나, 기타 요인들의 효과는 유의하지 않은 것으로 나타났다.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.77-102
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• 2007

This paper compares income and consumption for their relative effectiveness in measuring inequality. Although income inequality has received more attention in the literature, the permanent income hypothesis links consumption to welfare more directly than income. To the extent economic agents smooth their consumptions, consumption inequality is a better indicator for an economy's welfare inequality, and it is especially so when income volatility is high. The empirical analysis in this paper indicates that the income and consumption patterns among the Korean wage/salary worker households are quite consistent with the permanent income hypothesis. Further, it is found that consumption inequality tends to be lower than income inequality, and more importantly, that the two inequalities do not always vary in the same direction. These results call for stronger emphasis on consumption inequality in inequality literature.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.123-154
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• 2005

Using Korean household data, this paper examines how consumption of durable goods is determined. Previous studies report that the standard Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH), while being broadly consistent with non-durable goods consumption, provides little explanation for durable goods consumption. In this paper, we consider the (S, s) model as an alternative to the standard PIH. The (S, s) model predicts that, because of fixed adjustment costs, consumers make no adjustment to the durable goods stock until deviation from the optimal level becomes large. When the adjustments are made, the durable goods stock attains the optimal level. In order to test this prediction, we examine the intra-temporal relationship between non-durable goods and durable goods consumption and intertemporal changes in durable goods consumption, using data from the Korean Household Panel Study. The results show that, while the standard PIH is rejected by the data, the (S, s) model is not.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.25-58
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• 2015

This paper compares income and consumption inequalities in Korea and applies the permanent income hypothesis to interpret the linkage between the two inequalities. Income inequality has been increasing since 1990 while consumption inequality had been decreasing until the early 2000s when the two inequalities started to co-move. Permanent income hypothesis explains reasonably well the consumption pattern in the recent period, which reflects the increased access to asset markets by the Korean households. Consequently, the co-movement of income and consumption inequalities in the recent period implies that inequality in permanent income components are fluctuating.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 1993.04a
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• pp.424-436
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• 1993

패널내 추계적 성분들의 공분산 관계(variance-covariance structure)를 이용한 ML 추정법을 항상소득가설(PIH)의 검증에 적용하였다. Hall & Mishkin의 모형을 기초로 분기별 이분산성(heteroscedasticity)을 고려한 모형의 추정결과 전체 소비변동 중 약 11%가 과도민감성에 의한 것으로 나타났다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 1993.10a
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• pp.153-161
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• 1993

시간변동모수 공적분(Time-Varying Parameter Cointegration) 모형에서 시간변동모수가 안정적인 확률과정을 따르는 경우 BI(bi-integrated) 과정을 오차항으로 갖는 고정모수 공적분 모형과 동일하다. 이 때 BI과정은 ARCH 과정과 조건부분산이 동치관계에 있음을 이용하여 소득과 비내구재(서비스) 소비의 시간변동모수 공적분 관계를 추정하였다. 이로부터 합리적기대 항상소득가설을 검증한 결과 고정모수 공적분 모형과 달리 가설을 기각할 수 없는 것으로 나타났다.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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• v.59 no.3
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• pp.147-174
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• 2007

This study examines how path dependency of working poor labor market segmented from the primary and the secondary labor market affects employment and quality of employment of working poor. It Further examines how path dependency makes working poor to remain in the labor market and makes it difficult for them to escape from a vicious poverty cycle. Data is based on the $3{\sim}7th$ Korea Labor and Income Panel Study(KLIPS). Markov's transition probability and discrete-time hazard analysis are used for analysis. This study finds that Korea labor market is divided into three parts; the primary labor market, the secondary labor market and the working poor labor market. The proportion of employed poor has been reduced, but the proportion of non economically-active working poor has been increased and has become the main group among the working poor. This shows that labor demand of working poor is fundamentally lacking and there are structural barriers that block working poor's employment itself. The regression analysis shows that the longer working poor labor market participation is, the lower poverty-exit rate. This is an evidence of vicious poverty cycle that the poor have little chance to exit from working poor labor market, once they step into it. Therefore, the longer their participation in poor labor market, the more likely they would move only within the closed working poor labor market. Consequently, it is necessary to fundamentally reform labor market structure and to alleviate negative perception and discrimination about the poor labor while activating labor demand.