• Title/Summary/Keyword: 함수 예측 기법

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CO2 net atmospheric flux estimation and influence factors analysis in a stratified reservoir (성층화된 저수지에서 CO2 NAF 산정 및 영향 인자 분석)

  • Park, Hyung Seok;Chung, Se Woong;Lee, Eun Ju
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2019.05a
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    • pp.73-73
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    • 2019
  • 지구 표면의 약 2%에 해당하는 담수에서 육상계 전체가 흡수하는 탄소의 50%가 배출되며, 이는 토양표면에서 배출되는 탄소량에 비해 더 큰 수치로 전 지구적 탄소순환 해석에 중요한 역할을 한다. 특히, 내륙수역과 대기의 경계면에서 $CO_2$ 이동은 전 지구적 탄소순환의 중요한 구성요소로 평가되고 있다. 호수와 저수지 같은 담수 저류시설은 육상에서 기인한 탄소의 운송 및 처리 역할을 한다. 하지만, 저수지에서 온실가스배출량을 평가할 수 있는 명확한 방법론이 부족하며, 전지구 규모 GHGs배출량에 대한 추정에 대한 불확실성이 상당히 큰 상황이다. 본 연구에서는 몬순기후대에 위치한 인공저수지를 대상으로 보다 신뢰도있는 온실가스 배출량 추정을 위해 $CO_2$ NAF 산정하고, 산정에 영향을 미치는 인자들을 분석 하였다. 분석을 위해 $CO_2$ NAF 산정에 필요한 수리 및 수질 인자들을 2017년부터 2018년까지 수집하고, 기초통계량 및 상관분석을 실시하였다. 또한, 주성분분석(PCA) 및 다중선형회귀모델(MLR)과 랜덤포레스트(RF) 기법을 사용해 변수 중요도를 평가하였으며, $CO_2$ NAF 산정 주요인자인 기체교환 계수를 경험적 모델 3종(Cole and Caraco, Crusius, Vachon), 표면갱신형 모델 4종(Heiskanen, Maclntyre, Read, Soloviev)을 비교, 검토하였다. 조사기간 동안 기체교환계수 산정 결과 Crusius 모델 예측값이 평균 $0.342(0.047{\sim}4.323)cm\;hr^{-1}$으로 검토한 모델중 가장 낮은 평균값을 보였으며, Heiskane 모델이 $2.135(0.337{\sim}5.152)cm\;hr^{-1}$으로 가장 큰 평균값을 보였다. 대상 수체는 연주기로 완전혼합되며 수온성층이 약화되는 시기에 저수지 표층 아래에 축적된 탄소가 표층으로 전달되어 높은 수준의 p$CO_2$를 보이며, 수표면에 큰 난류 강도가 작용하는 기간에 대기중으로 배출(pulse emission) 기작이 나타난다. NAF 산정결과 경험적 모델의 NAF값($-1246.0{\sim}6510.3mg-CO_2m^{-2}day^{-1}$)은 표면갱신형 모델 NAF값($-1436.1{\sim}8485.7mg-CO_2m^{-2}day^{-1}$)보다 낮은 수준을 보였으며, 풍속의 함수만을 이용하는 경험적 모델보다 부력 플럭스와 난류 혼합의 영향을 고려하는 Macintyre, Heiskanen모델이 성층 저수지의 $CO_2$ NAF 산정에 적합한 것으로 나타났다. $CO_2$ NAF 산정의 주요인자로 MLR모델은 Tw, EC, pH, Chla, TOC, Alk, RF모델은 EC, DO, TOC가 중요 변수로 평가되었다. PCA 분석결과, 수온이 낮고 성층이 약화되며 pH가 낮은 상태에서 NAF가 큰 것으로 나타났다.

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Correlation analysis of pollutants using IoT technology in LID facilities (LID 시설 내 IoT 기술을 활용한 오염물질 상관성 분석)

  • Jeon, Minsu;Choi, Hyeseon;kevin, Geronimo Franz;Reyes, N.J.DG.;Kim, Leehyung
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.453-453
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    • 2021
  • 도시지역 비점오염원관리, 물순환 회복, 침투 및 증발산량 증가, 열섬현상 저감을 위한 주요한 방안으로 저영향개발(low impact development, LID)과 그린인프라 기법의 적용되고 있다. LID 시설은 소규모 분산형 시설로써 넓은 지역에 많고 다양한 시설들이 적용되어 시설의 개수가 많으며, 수질 및 토양 내 기성제품에 대한 센서들의 가격은 고가로 형성되어 있어 기기의 경제성 및 유지관리 등 적용하는데 제한적이다. 따라서 과거 모니터링 자료를 기반으로 오염물질들과의 상관성 분석을 통하여 계측이 어려운 항목들을 계측가능한 항목들로부터 예측 가능하며, 선정된 항목들에 대한 비용효율적인 센서를 개발하여 실시간 LID 모니터링이 가능한 비용효율적 모니터링을 개발하였다. 공주대학교 천안캠퍼스의 LID 시설들은 2013년에 조성되어 현재까지 시설이 운영되고 있으며, 5년이상의 과거 강우시 모니터링 자료들을 이용하여 오염물질 상관성 분석을 수행가능 하기에 대상지로 선정하였다. 오염물질 상관성 분석은 2013년부터 2017년도에 침투도랑에서 수행된 강우시 모니터링 자료를 활용하여 각 오염물질들의 상관성을 분석을 수행하였다. 침투도랑 내 유입되는 평균 유입수는 TSS 286.1±318.3 mg/L, BOD 22.6±39.5 mg/L, TN 8.96±5.85 mg/L, TP 1.01±1.11 mg/L로 나타났다. 겨울철에 비해 여름철에서의 오염물질의 유입농도가 높은 것으로 분석되었다. 이는 여름철 고온건조로 인한 노면 내 차량의 주행으로 인한 중금속, 폐타이어 등과 장마철 강우 시 유출된 토사로 인하여 유입수의 농도가 높은 것으로 분석되었다. 오염물질 부하량은 TSS와 COD 0.66으로 유의성이 높은 것으로 나왔으며, COD와 TSS, TP, TN 등 유의성이 높은 것으로 분석되었다. Arduino와 Raspberry PI를 활용하여 저비용 센서와 LTE 모뎀통신과 데이터 베이스 연결하여 개발된 프로그램을 통해서 무선으로 LID 시설에 대한 모니터링을 침투화분2와 식생체류지에 조성하였다. 전력공급이 어려운 식생체류지의 경우 태양열(Solar system) 시스템과 보조 전력 배터리를 조성하여 장마철이나 장기적인 악천후로 인한 전력을 생산하지 못할 경우 보조전력배터리에서 전력을 제공하여 지속적인 모니터링이 이루어지도록 설계하였다. 토양함수량, 토양온도와 Conductivity 등 3종류의 센서를 적용하였으며, 프로그램은 현재 2단계를 통한 2차수정을 통하여 프로그램을 구축하였다. 오차, 오작동, 계측값에 대한 검·보정 작업이 필요하다. 또한 대기자료의 구축을 통해 보다 토양과 LID 시설에 대한 영향분석이 필요한 것으로 사료된다.

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Correlation Analysis of Rail Surface Defects and Rail Internal Cracks (레일표면결함과 레일내부균열의 상관관계 분석)

  • Jung-Youl Choi;Jae-Min Han;Young-Ki Kim
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.585-590
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    • 2024
  • In this study, rail surface defects are increasing due to the aging of urban railway rails, but in the detailed guidelines for track performance evaluation established by the country, rail surface damage is inspected with the naked eye of engineers and simple measuring tools. With the recent enactment of the Track Diagnosis Act, a large budget has been invested and the volume of rail diagnosis is rapidly increasing, but it is difficult to secure the reliability of diagnosis results using labor-intensive visual inspection techniques. It is very important to discover defects in the rail surface through periodic track tours and visual inspection. However, evaluating the severity of defects on the rail surface based on the subjective judgment of the inspector has significant limitations in predicting damage inside the rail. In this study, the rail internal crack characteristics due to rail surface damage were studied. In field measurements, rail surface damage locations were selected, samples of various damage types were collected, and the rail surface damage status was evaluated. In indoor testing, we intend to analyze the correlation between rail surface defects and internal defects using a electron scanning microscope (SEM). To determine the crack growth rate of urban railway rails currently in use, the Gaussian probability density function was applied and analyzed.

Weathering Sensitivity Characterization for Rock Slope, Considering Time Dependent Strength Changes (시간에 따른 강도변화를 고려한 암반사면의 풍화민감특성 분석)

  • Lee Jeong-Sang;Bae Seong-Ho;Yu Yeong-Il;Oh Joung-Bae;Lee Du-Hwa;Park Joon-Young
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.16 no.2 s.61
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    • pp.109-134
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    • 2006
  • Rocks undergo weathering processes influenced by changing in pressure-temperature condition, atmosphere, underground water, and rainfall. The weathering processes change physical and chemical characteristics of the rocks. Once the rocks are weathered, the characteristics of them are changed and, because of the changing, several disadvantages such as rock slope failures and underground water spouts are can occur. Before we cut a large rock slope, therefore, we must analyze current weathering conditions of rocks and predict weathering processes in the future. Through the results of such analyses, we can judge reinforcement works. In order to comply with such requests, chemical weathering sensitivity analysis which was analyzed from chemical weathering velocities and other characteristics of rocks has been applied in several prior construction works in Korea. But, It is defective to use directly in engineering fields because it was developed for soils(not rocks), it has too mny factors must be considered and the relationships between the factors are not clear, and it is hard to explain the weathering processes in engineering time range. Besides above, because it has been used for isotropic rocks, this method is hard to apply to anisotropic rocks such as sedimentary rocks. Acceding to studies from morphologists (e.g. Oguchi et al., 1994; Sunamura, 1996; Norwick and Dexter, 2002), time dependent strength reduction influenced by weathering shows a negative exponential function form. Appling this relation, one can synthesize the factors which influence the weathering processes to the strength reduction, and get meaningful estimates in engineering viewpoint. We suggest this weathering sensitivity characterization method as a technique that can explain time dependent weathering sensitivity characteristics through strength changes and can directly applied the rock slope design.

An exploration of the relationship between crime/victim characteristics and the victim's criminal damages: Variable selection based on random forest algorithm (범죄 및 피해자 특성과 범죄피해 내용의 관계 탐색: 랜덤포레스트 알고리즘에 기초한 변인선택)

  • Han, Yuhwa;Lee, Wooyeol
    • Korean Journal of Forensic Psychology
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.121-145
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    • 2022
  • The current study applied the random forest algorithm to Korean crime victim survey data collected biennially between 2010 and 2018 to explore the relationship between crime/victim characteristics and the victim's criminal damages. A total of 3,080 cases including gender, age (life cycle stage), type of crime, perpetrator acquisition, repeated victimization, psychological damage (depression, isolation, extreme fear, somatic symptoms, interpersonal problems, moving out to avoid people, suicidal impulses, suicide attempts), and emotional changes after victimization (changes in self-protection confidence, self-esteem, confidence in others, confidence in legal institutions, and respect for Korean legal system/law) were analyzed. Considering the features of data that are difficult to apply traditional statistical techniques, this study implemented random forest algorithms to predict crime and victim characteristics using the victim's criminal damages (psychological damage and emotional change) and selected good predictors using VSURF function in VSURF package for R. As a result of the analysis, it was confirmed that the relationship between the type of crime and depression, extreme fear, somatic symptoms, and interpersonal problems, between perpetrator acquisition and somatic symptoms and interpersonal problems, and between repeated victimization and changes in respect for Korean legal system/law. Gender and life cycle stage (youth/adult/elderly) were found to be related to extreme fear and changes in self-protection confidence, respectively. However, more empirical evidence should be aggregated to explain the results as meaningful. The results of this study suggest that it is necessary to enhance the experts' knowledge and educate them on cases about the relationship between crime/victim characteristics and criminal damage. Strengthening their interview strategy and knowledge about law/rules were also needed to increase the effectiveness of the Korean victim assessment system.

A Knowledge-based Approach for the Estimation of Effective Sampling Station Frequencies in Benthic Ecological Assessments (지식기반적 방법을 활용한 저서생태계 평가의 유효 조사정점 개수 산정)

  • Yoo, Jae-Won;Kim, Chang-Soo;Jung, Hoe-In;Lee, Yong-Woo;Lee, Man-Woo;Lee, Chang-Gun;Jin, Sung-Ju;Maeng, Jun-Ho;Hong, Jae-Sang
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.147-154
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    • 2011
  • Decision making in Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Consultation on the Coastal Area Utilization (CCAU) is footing on the survey reports, thus requires concrete and accurate information on the natural habitats. In spite of the importance of reporting the ecological quality and status of habitats, the accumulated knowledge and recent techniques in ecology such as the use of investigated cases and indicators/indices have not been utilized in evaluation processes. Even the EIA report does not contain sufficient information required in a decision making process for conservation and development. In addition, for CCAU, sampling efforts were so limited that only two or a few stations were set in most study cases. This hampers transferring key ecological information to both specialist review and decision making processes. Hence, setting the effective number of sampling stations can be said as a prior step for better assessment. We introduced a few statistical techniques to determine the number of sampling stations in macrobenthos surveys. However, the application of the techniques requires a preliminary study that cannot be performed under the current assessment frame. An analysis of the spatial configuration of sampling stations from 19 previous studies was carried out as an alternative approach, based on the assumption that those configurations reported in scientific journal contribute to successful understanding of the ecological phenomena. The distance between stations and number of sampling stations in a $4{\times}4$ km unit area were calculated, and the medians of each parameter were 2.3 km, and 3, respectively. For each study, approximated survey area (ASA, $km^2$) was obtained by using the number of sampling stations in a unit area (NSSU) and total number of sampling stations (TNSS). To predict either appropriate ASA or NSSU/TNSS, we found and suggested statistically significant functional relationship among ASA, survey purpose and NSSU. This empirical approach will contribute to increasing sampling effort in a field survey and communicating with reasonable data and information in EIA and CCAU.

Discounted Cost Model of Condition-Based Maintenance Regarding Cumulative Damage of Armor Units of Rubble-Mound Breakwaters as a Discrete-Time Stochastic Process (경사제 피복재의 누적피해를 이산시간 확률과정으로 고려한 조건기반 유지관리의 할인비용모형)

  • Lee, Cheol-Eung;Park, Dong-Heon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.109-120
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    • 2017
  • A discounted cost model for preventive maintenance of armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters is mathematically derived by combining the deterioration model based on a discrete-time stochastic process of shock occurrence with the cost model of renewal process together. The discounted cost model of condition-based maintenance proposed in this paper can take into account the nonlinearity of cumulative damage process as well as the discounting effect of cost. By comparing the present results with the previous other results, the verification is carried out satisfactorily. In addition, it is known from the sensitivity analysis on variables related to the model that the more often preventive maintenance should be implemented, the more crucial the level of importance of system is. However, the tendency is shown in reverse as the interest rate is increased. Meanwhile, the present model has been applied to the armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters. The parameters of damage intensity function have been estimated through the time-dependent prediction of the expected cumulative damage level obtained from the sample path method. In particular, it is confirmed that the shock occurrences can be considered to be a discrete-time stochastic process by investigating the effects of uncertainty of the shock occurrences on the expected cumulative damage level with homogeneous Poisson process and doubly stochastic Poisson process that are the continuous-time stochastic processes. It can be also seen that the stochastic process of cumulative damage would depend directly on the design conditions, thus the preventive maintenance would be varied due to those. Finally, the optimal periods and scale for the preventive maintenance of armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters can be quantitatively determined with the failure limits, the levels of importance of structure, and the interest rates.

Periodic Growth Monitoring and Final Age at Maturity in a Robinia pseudoacacia Stand (아까시나무 임분의 시계열적 생장 모니터링 및 벌기령 도출)

  • Jaeyeop, Kim;Sora, Kim;Jeongeun, Song;Sangmin, Sung;Jongsoo, Yim;Yeongmo, Son
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.111 no.4
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    • pp.613-621
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    • 2022
  • The study aim was to investigate changes in the diameter, number of standing trees, stand volume per ha and site index by the forest survey order, climate zone (northern temperate, central temperate, southern temperate, and warm temperate regions), and altitude in 100 m intervals) by collecting samples of Robinia pseudoacacia from the fifth, sixth, and seventh national forest survey datasets. The rotation cutting age, which is a standard used for wood, was calculated. The changes were statistically analyzed by performing ANOVA and the Duncan multiple test. Diameter growth naturally increased according to the forest survey order and was lowest in the southern temperate region by climate zone and lowest at the 301-400 m altitude. The number of standing trees per ha did not change according to the forest survey order and altitude, and the density was highest in the central temperate region and lowest in the southern temperate region. The stand volume per ha increased according to the forest survey order, and the climate zone was divided into two groups: ① northern temperate region and central temperate region, ② southern temperate region and warm temperate region. The stand volume growth was highest at the 201-300 m point. Thesite index showed results similar to the change pattern of the stand volume per ha. The growth curve, which can be seen by the change in stand volume per ha, was estimated by applying theWeibull formula, and the stand volume per ha was estimated to reach approximately 200 m3/ha at 50-60 years. The rotation of the highest production in volume, which is the standard for using trees as wood rather than honey sources, was calculated to be 34 years.

A Hybrid Recommender System based on Collaborative Filtering with Selective Use of Overall and Multicriteria Ratings (종합 평점과 다기준 평점을 선택적으로 활용하는 협업필터링 기반 하이브리드 추천 시스템)

  • Ku, Min Jung;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.85-109
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    • 2018
  • Recommender system recommends the items expected to be purchased by a customer in the future according to his or her previous purchase behaviors. It has been served as a tool for realizing one-to-one personalization for an e-commerce service company. Traditional recommender systems, especially the recommender systems based on collaborative filtering (CF), which is the most popular recommendation algorithm in both academy and industry, are designed to generate the items list for recommendation by using 'overall rating' - a single criterion. However, it has critical limitations in understanding the customers' preferences in detail. Recently, to mitigate these limitations, some leading e-commerce companies have begun to get feedback from their customers in a form of 'multicritera ratings'. Multicriteria ratings enable the companies to understand their customers' preferences from the multidimensional viewpoints. Moreover, it is easy to handle and analyze the multidimensional ratings because they are quantitative. But, the recommendation using multicritera ratings also has limitation that it may omit detail information on a user's preference because it only considers three-to-five predetermined criteria in most cases. Under this background, this study proposes a novel hybrid recommendation system, which selectively uses the results from 'traditional CF' and 'CF using multicriteria ratings'. Our proposed system is based on the premise that some people have holistic preference scheme, whereas others have composite preference scheme. Thus, our system is designed to use traditional CF using overall rating for the users with holistic preference, and to use CF using multicriteria ratings for the users with composite preference. To validate the usefulness of the proposed system, we applied it to a real-world dataset regarding the recommendation for POI (point-of-interests). Providing personalized POI recommendation is getting more attentions as the popularity of the location-based services such as Yelp and Foursquare increases. The dataset was collected from university students via a Web-based online survey system. Using the survey system, we collected the overall ratings as well as the ratings for each criterion for 48 POIs that are located near K university in Seoul, South Korea. The criteria include 'food or taste', 'price' and 'service or mood'. As a result, we obtain 2,878 valid ratings from 112 users. Among 48 items, 38 items (80%) are used as training dataset, and the remaining 10 items (20%) are used as validation dataset. To examine the effectiveness of the proposed system (i.e. hybrid selective model), we compared its performance to the performances of two comparison models - the traditional CF and the CF with multicriteria ratings. The performances of recommender systems were evaluated by using two metrics - average MAE(mean absolute error) and precision-in-top-N. Precision-in-top-N represents the percentage of truly high overall ratings among those that the model predicted would be the N most relevant items for each user. The experimental system was developed using Microsoft Visual Basic for Applications (VBA). The experimental results showed that our proposed system (avg. MAE = 0.584) outperformed traditional CF (avg. MAE = 0.591) as well as multicriteria CF (avg. AVE = 0.608). We also found that multicriteria CF showed worse performance compared to traditional CF in our data set, which is contradictory to the results in the most previous studies. This result supports the premise of our study that people have two different types of preference schemes - holistic and composite. Besides MAE, the proposed system outperformed all the comparison models in precision-in-top-3, precision-in-top-5, and precision-in-top-7. The results from the paired samples t-test presented that our proposed system outperformed traditional CF with 10% statistical significance level, and multicriteria CF with 1% statistical significance level from the perspective of average MAE. The proposed system sheds light on how to understand and utilize user's preference schemes in recommender systems domain.