• Title/Summary/Keyword: 풍력발전예측

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Accuracy Assessment of Annual Energy Production Estimated for Seongsan Wind Farm (성산 풍력발전단지의 연간발전량 예측 정확도 평가)

  • Ju, Beom-Cheol;Shin, Dong-Heon;Ko, Kyung-Nam
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.9-17
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    • 2016
  • In order to examine how accurately the wind farm design software, WindPRO and Meteodyn WT, predict annual energy production (AEP), an investigation was carried out for Seongsan wind farm of Jeju Island. The one-year wind data was measured from wind sensors on met masts of Susan and Sumang which are 2.3 km, and 18 km away from Seongsan wind farm, respectively. MERRA (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications) reanalysis data was also analyzed for the same period of time. The real AEP data came from SCADA system of Seongsan wind farm, which was compare with AEP data predicted by WindPRO and Meteodyn WT. As a result, AEP predicted by Meteodyn WT was lower than that by WindPRO. The analysis of using wind data from met masts led to the conclusion that AEP prediction by CFD software, Meteodyn WT, is not always more accurate than that by linear program software, WindPRO. However, when MERRA reanalysis data was used, Meteodyn WT predicted AEP more accurately than WindPRO.

Selection of Promising Wind Farm Sites and Prediction of Annual Energy Production of a Wind Turbine for Eight Islands in Korea (국내 8개 도서지역 대상 풍력발전 유망후보지 선정 및 발전량 예측)

  • Kim, Chan-Jong;Song, Yuan;Paek, Insu
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • v.37 no.6
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    • pp.13-24
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    • 2017
  • Finding promising wind farm sites in islands of Korea is performed in this study. Total ten islands that have been measuring wind speed and direction using automatic weather stations for at least ten years were subjects of this study. Conditions for finding suitable wind farm sites including wind resource and various exclusion factors were applied and two islands that were found not to be suitable for wind farms were excluded. Micositing of a single wind turbine for the remaining eight islands was performed to estimate the annual energy production and the capacity factor.. Based on the simulation results, the wind farm sites selected within the eight islands were found to be suitable for wind power. The capacity factors were varied between 22.3% and 33.0% for a 100 kW wind turbine having a hub height of 30 m.

Comparative Analysis of Solar Power Generation Prediction AI Model DNN-RNN (태양광 발전량 예측 인공지능 DNN-RNN 모델 비교분석)

  • Hong, Jeong-Jo;Oh, Yong-Sun
    • Journal of Internet of Things and Convergence
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.55-61
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    • 2022
  • In order to reduce greenhouse gases, the main culprit of global warming, the United Nations signed the Climate Change Convention in 1992. Korea is also pursuing a policy to expand the supply of renewable energy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The expansion of renewable energy development using solar power led to the expansion of wind power and solar power generation. The expansion of renewable energy development, which is greatly affected by weather conditions, is creating difficulties in managing the supply and demand of the power system. To solve this problem, the power brokerage market was introduced. Therefore, in order to participate in the power brokerage market, it is necessary to predict the amount of power generation. In this paper, the prediction system was used to analyze the Yonchuk solar power plant. As a result of applying solar insolation from on-site (Model 1) and the Korea Meteorological Administration (Model 2), it was confirmed that accuracy of Model 2 was 3% higher. As a result of comparative analysis of the DNN and RNN models, it was confirmed that the prediction accuracy of the DNN model improved by 1.72%.

Basic Research on the Possibility of Developing a Landscape Perceptual Response Prediction Model Using Artificial Intelligence - Focusing on Machine Learning Techniques - (인공지능을 활용한 경관 지각반응 예측모델 개발 가능성 기초연구 - 머신러닝 기법을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Jin-Pyo;Suh, Joo-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.51 no.3
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    • pp.70-82
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    • 2023
  • The recent surge of IT and data acquisition is shifting the paradigm in all aspects of life, and these advances are also affecting academic fields. Research topics and methods are being improved through academic exchange and connections. In particular, data-based research methods are employed in various academic fields, including landscape architecture, where continuous research is needed. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the possibility of developing a landscape preference evaluation and prediction model using machine learning, a branch of Artificial Intelligence, reflecting the current situation. To achieve the goal of this study, machine learning techniques were applied to the landscaping field to build a landscape preference evaluation and prediction model to verify the simulation accuracy of the model. For this, wind power facility landscape images, recently attracting attention as a renewable energy source, were selected as the research objects. For analysis, images of the wind power facility landscapes were collected using web crawling techniques, and an analysis dataset was built. Orange version 3.33, a program from the University of Ljubljana was used for machine learning analysis to derive a prediction model with excellent performance. IA model that integrates the evaluation criteria of machine learning and a separate model structure for the evaluation criteria were used to generate a model using kNN, SVM, Random Forest, Logistic Regression, and Neural Network algorithms suitable for machine learning classification models. The performance evaluation of the generated models was conducted to derive the most suitable prediction model. The prediction model derived in this study separately evaluates three evaluation criteria, including classification by type of landscape, classification by distance between landscape and target, and classification by preference, and then synthesizes and predicts results. As a result of the study, a prediction model with a high accuracy of 0.986 for the evaluation criterion according to the type of landscape, 0.973 for the evaluation criterion according to the distance, and 0.952 for the evaluation criterion according to the preference was developed, and it can be seen that the verification process through the evaluation of data prediction results exceeds the required performance value of the model. As an experimental attempt to investigate the possibility of developing a prediction model using machine learning in landscape-related research, this study was able to confirm the possibility of creating a high-performance prediction model by building a data set through the collection and refinement of image data and subsequently utilizing it in landscape-related research fields. Based on the results, implications, and limitations of this study, it is believed that it is possible to develop various types of landscape prediction models, including wind power facility natural, and cultural landscapes. Machine learning techniques can be more useful and valuable in the field of landscape architecture by exploring and applying research methods appropriate to the topic, reducing the time of data classification through the study of a model that classifies images according to landscape types or analyzing the importance of landscape planning factors through the analysis of landscape prediction factors using machine learning.

Prediction of Annual Energy Production of Wind Farms in Complex Terrain using MERRA Reanalysis Data (MERRA 재해석 자료를 이용한 복잡지형 내 풍력발전단지 연간에너지발전량 예측)

  • Kim, Jin-Han;Kwon, Il-Han;Park, Ung-Sik;Yoo, Neungsoo;Paek, Insu
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.82-90
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    • 2014
  • The MERRA reanalysis data provided online by NASA was applied to predict the annual energy productions of two largest wind farms in Korea. The two wind farms, Gangwon wind farm and Yeongyang wind farm, are located on complex terrain. For the prediction, a commercial CFD program, WindSim, was used. The annual energy productions of the two wind farms were obtained for three separate years of MERRA data from June 2007 to May 2012, and the results were compared with the measured values listed in the CDM reports of the two wind farms. As the result, the prediction errors of six comparisons were within 9 percent when the availabilities of the wind farms were assumed to be 100 percent. Although further investigations are necessary, the MERRA reanalysis data seem useful tentatively to predict adjacent wind resources when measurement data are not available.

A Renewable Resource Modeling Method in WASP-IV (WASP 모형 기반의 신재생전원 모델링 방안 연구)

  • Park, Jong-Bae;Park, Yong-Gi;Shin, Joong-Rin;Roh, Jae-Hyung;Park, Jae-Seung
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2011.07a
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    • pp.394-395
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    • 2011
  • 본 연구에서는 신재생자원인 풍력발전을 WASP 모형 내에 공급측 자원으로 반영하여 수급계획을 수행해 보았다. 기후적 요인에 대한 의존성이 매우 강한 수력발전의 경우 WASP 모형 내에서 모델링이 가능한데, 다른 신재생에너지의 경우도 수력과 유사한 형태를 가지고 있기 때문에 WASP 모형 내에서 수력발전 시스템과의 입력형태만 맞추어 주면 신재생에너지의 공급측 관점에서의 해석이 가능해진다. 이는 신재생에너지로 인한 신뢰도 영향, 즉 LOLP의 변화를 확인할 수 있는 장점을 가지고 있다. 본 연구에서는 5차 수급계획에서 예측수요에서 시간대별 신재생에너지를 차감한 수요측 관점의 신재생에너지 모델링 방법과 공급측인 수력발전으로 모델링하여 수급계획을 수행한 결과와의 LOLP값을 비교하였다.

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Study on the Power Performance on WindPRO Prediction in the Southeast Region of Jeju Island (제주 남동부 지역을 대상으로 한 WindPRO의 발전량 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Hyun, Seunggun;Kim, Keonhoon;Huh, Jongchul
    • 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2010.06a
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    • pp.184.1-184.1
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    • 2010
  • In order to research the way to evaluate wind resource without actual Met Mast data, this paper has been carried out on the southeastern region of Jeju island, Korea. Although wind turbine has been an economical alternative energy resource, misjudging the prediction of lifetime or payback period occurs because of the inaccurate assessment of wind resource and the location of wind turbine. Using WindPRO(Ver. 2.7), a software for wind farm design developed by EMD from Denmark, wind resources for the southeastern region of Jeju island was analyzed, and the performance of WindPRO prediction was evaluated in detail. Met Mast data in Su-san 5.5Km far from Samdal wind farm, AWS in Sung-san 4.5km far from Samdal wind farm, and Korea Wind Map data had been collected for this work.

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A Study on Estimation of Wind Power Generation using Weather Data in Jeju Island (기상관측자료를 이용한 제주도 풍력단지의 풍력발전량 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Ryu, Goo-Hyun;Kim, Ki-Su;Kim, Jae-Chul;Song, Kyung-Bin
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.58 no.12
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    • pp.2349-2353
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    • 2009
  • Due to high oil price and global warming of the earth, investments for renewable energy have been increased a lot continuously. Specially, wind power has been received a great attention in the world. In order to construct a new wind farm, forecasting of wind power generation is essential for a feasibility test. This paper investigates wind velocity measurement data of Gosan weather station which located in Hankyung of Jeju island. This paper presents results of estimation of wind power generation using digital weather forecast provided from Korea meteorological administration, and the accuracy of the wind power forecasting by comparison between forecasted data and actual wind power data.

Pitched Roof-Building Integrated Wind Turbine System Performance Estimation (건물 지붕 구조를 활용한 건물일체형 풍력발전시스템의 성능 예측)

  • Choi, Hyung-Sik;Chang, Ho-Nam
    • 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2008.10a
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    • pp.324-327
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    • 2008
  • We simulated the performance improvement of a wind turbine installed on the pitched roof-building(apartment in urban area, 50m height). A nozzle shape wind guide is added on the roof of a model apartment. The nozzle-diifuser structure effects for the free stream wind (average 4m/s, 50m height in Incheon) is studied by a basic CFD analysis. This paper examines the effects of roof structure on the wind velocity and the wind distortion effects by a front building. The possible wind power generation capacity on building roof in urban is calculated.

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A study on the Voltage analysis of Sung-san S/S MTr #1 Hang-won wind farm (제주 성산 S/S MTr #1 행원 풍력단지 전압해석)

  • Kim, Sang-Jun;Cho, Min-Ho;Yoon, Gi-Gab;Jang, Sang-Ok;Ahn, Jeong-Shik
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2003.11a
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    • pp.345-347
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    • 2003
  • 본 논문에서는 분산전원이 기존의 배전계통상에 도입되는 경우에 대하여 전압변동해석을 수행하기 위하여, 풍력발전단지가 도입된 제주 성산 변전소를 선정하여 MATLAB 프로그램을 이용하여 시뮬레이션을 수행하고 전압변동상황을 예측, 이에 따른 문제점과 그에 대한 대책을 제시하도록 할 것이다.

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