• Title/Summary/Keyword: 풍력발전예측

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A Study on the Development of Critical Transmission Operating Constraint Prediction (CTOCP) System With High Wind Power Penetration (대규모 풍력발전 계통 연계시 주요 송전망 제약예측시스템 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Hur, Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.86-93
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    • 2015
  • Globally, wind power development is experiencing dramatic growth and wind power penetration levels are increasing. Wind generation is highly variable in time and space and it doesn't guarantee the system reliability and secure system operation. As wind power capacity becomes a significant portion of total generation capacity, the reliability assessment for wind power are therefore needed. At present, this operational reliability assessment is focusing on a generation adequacy perspective and does not consider transmission reliability issues. In this paper, we propose the critical transmission operating constraint prediction(CTOCP) system with high wind power penetration to enhance transmission reliability.

Study on the Prediction of Wind Power Outputs using Curvilinear Regression (곡선회귀분석을 이용한 풍력발전 출력 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Choy, Youngdo;Jung, Solyoung;Park, Beomjun;Hur, Jin;Park, Sang ho;Yoon, Gi gab
    • KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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    • v.2 no.4
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    • pp.627-630
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    • 2016
  • Recently, the size of wind farms is becoming larger, and the integration of high wind generation resources into power gird is becoming more important. Due to intermittency of wind generating resources, it is an essential to predict power outputs. In this paper, we introduce the basic concept of curvilinear regression, which is one of the method of wind power prediction. The empirical data, wind farm power output in Jeju Island, is considered to verify the proposed prediction model.

A Study on the Analysis of Correlation Decay Distance(CoDecDist) Model for Enhancing Spatial Prediction Outputs of Spatially Distributed Wind Farms (풍력발전출력의 공간예측 향상을 위한 상관관계감소거리(CoDecDist) 모형 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Hur, Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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    • v.29 no.7
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    • pp.80-86
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    • 2015
  • As wind farm outputs depend on natural wind resources that vary over space and time, spatial correlation analysis is needed to estimate power outputs of wind generation resources. As a result, geographic information such as latitude and longitude plays a key role to estimate power outputs of spatially distributed wind farms. In this paper, we introduce spatial correlation analysis to estimate the power outputs produced by wind farms that are geographically distributed. We present spatial correlation analysis of empirical power output data for the JEJU Island and ERCOT ISO (Texas) wind farms and propose the Correlation Decay Distance (CoDecDist) model based on geographic correlation analysis to enhance the estimation of wind power outputs.

Comparison between Expected and Actual Capacity Factors of a Wind Farm (풍력발전단지의 예측이용율과 실제이용율 비교분석에 관한 연구)

  • Koh, Byung-Euk;Moon, Seung-Jae;Yoo, Hoseon
    • Plant Journal
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.40-48
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    • 2011
  • This study shows the comparison between expected and actual capacity factors of a wind farm through wind resource analyzation. The expected capacity factor comes from an 'automatic weather system' run by the Korean national weather service and a 'meteorological mast' run by a project owner. Based on this comparison and analysis, the importance of meteorological mast micro-siting and selection of wind turbine class and type, will be studied along with presenting important implications for wind farm expansion and development.

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Study on Wind Power Prediction model based on Spatial Modeling (공간모델링 기반의 풍력발전출력 예측 모델에 관한 연구)

  • Jung, Solyoung;Hur, Jin;Choy, Young-do
    • KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.163-168
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    • 2015
  • In order to integrate high wind generation resources into power grid, it is an essential to predict power outputs of wind generating resources. As wind farm outputs depend on natural wind resources that vary over space and time, spatial modeling based on geographic information such as latitude and longitude is needed to estimate power outputs of wind generation resources. In this paper, we introduce the basic concept of spatial modeling and present the spatial prediction model based on Kriging techniques. The empirical data, wind farm power output in Texas, is considered to verify the proposed prediction model.

Development of Economic Evaluation Solution and Power Prediction of Renewable Energy System (신재생에너지 발전 출력 예측과 경제성 종합평가 기술개발)

  • Jeoune, Dae-Seong;Kim, Jin-Young;Kim, Hyun-Goo;Kim, Jonghyun;Youm, Carl;Shin, Ki-Yeol
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.93-112
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    • 2019
  • In this paper, a very new web-based software for renewable energy system (RES) design and economic evaluation was introduced. This solution would provide the precise RES estimation service including not only photovoltaic (PV), wind turbine (WT) and fuel cell (FC) individually but also energy storage system (ESS) as combined forms with PV or WT. The three reasons why we ought to develop it are: First, the standardized tool suitable to the domestic environment for estimating power generation from RES facilities and economic evaluation is required. Secondly, the standardized tool is needed to spread domestic RES supply policy and to promote the new industry in the micro-grid field. The last, the reliability of economic evaluation should be enhanced more for new facilities. To achieve those aims, the weather database of one hundred locations have established and the RES facility database has also constructed. For the energy management, mathematical models for PV, WT, ESS and FC were developed. As a final phase, the analytical process to evaluate economics has performed with field data verification.

Structural Design and Experimental Investigation of A Medium Scale Composite Wind Turbine Blade Considering Fatigue Life (피로 수명을 고려한 중형 복합재 풍력터빈 블레이드의 구조설계 및 실험 평가)

  • Gong, Chang Deok;Bang, Jo Hyeok
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.23-30
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    • 2003
  • In this study, the various load cases by specified by the IEC61400-1 international specification and GL Regulations for the wind energy conversion system were considered, and a specific composite structure configuration which can effectively endure various loads was proposed. In order to evaluate the structure, the structural analysis for the composite wind turbine blade was performed using the finite element method(FEM). In the structural design, the acceptable configuration of blade structure was determined through the parametric studies, and the most dominant design parameters were confirmed. In the stress analysis using the FEM, it was confirmed that the blade structure was safe and stable for all the considerd load cases. Moreover the safety of the blade root joint with insert bolts, newly devised in this study, was checked against the design loads and also the fatigue loads. The fatigue life for operating more than 20 years was estimated by using the well-known S-N linear damage rule, the load spectrum and Spera's empirical equations. The full-scale static test was performed under the simulated aerodynamic loads. from the experimental results, it was found that the designed blade had the structural integrity. Furthermore the measured results were agreed with the analytical results such as deflections, strains, the mass and the radial center of gravity. The studied blade was successfully certified by an international institute, GL, of Germany.

Predicting the success of CDM Registration for Hydropower Projects using Logistic Regression and CART (로그 회귀분석 및 CART를 활용한 수력사업의 CDM 승인여부 예측 모델에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Jong-Ho;Koo, Bonsang
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.65-76
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    • 2015
  • The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is the multi-lateral 'cap and trade' system endorsed by the Kyoto Protocol. CDM allows developed (Annex I) countries to buy CER credits from New and Renewable (NE) projects of non-Annex countries, to meet their carbon reduction requirements. This in effect subsidizes and promotes NE projects in developing countries, ultimately reducing global greenhouse gases (GHG). To be registered as a CDM project, the project must prove 'additionality,' which depends on numerous factors including the adopted technology, baseline methodology, emission reductions, and the project's internal rate of return. This makes it difficult to determine ex ante a project's acceptance as a CDM approved project, and entails sunk costs and even project cancellation to its project stakeholders. Focusing on hydro power projects and employing UNFCCC public data, this research developed a prediction model using logistic regression and CART to determine the likelihood of approval as a CDM project. The AUC for the logistic regression and CART model was 0.7674 and 0.7231 respectively, which proves the model's prediction accuracy. More importantly, results indicate that the emission reduction amount, MW per hour, investment/Emission as crucial variables, whereas the baseline methodology and technology types were insignificant. This demonstrates that at least for hydro power projects, the specific technology is not as important as the amount of emission reductions and relatively small scale projects and investment to carbon reduction ratios.

Battery Level Calculation and Failure Prediction Algorithm for ESS Optimization and Stable Operation (ESS 최적화 및 안정적인 운영을 위한 배터리 잔량 산출 및 고장 예측 알고리즘)

  • Joo, Jong-Yul;Lee, Young-Jae;Park, Kyoung-Wook;Oh, Jae-Chul
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.71-78
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    • 2020
  • In the case of power generation using renewable energy, power production may not be smooth due to the influence of the weather. The energy storage system (ESS) is used to increase the efficiency of solar and wind power generation. ESS has been continuously fired due to a lack of battery protection systems, operation management, and control system, or careless installation, leading to very big casualties and economic losses. ESS stability and battery protection system operation management technology is indispensable. In this paper, we present a battery level calculation algorithm and a failure prediction algorithm for ESS optimization and stable operation. The proposed algorithm calculates the correct battery level by accumulating the current amount in real-time when the battery is charged and discharged, and calculates the battery failure by using the voltage imbalance between battery cells. The proposed algorithms can predict the exact battery level and failure required to operate the ESS optimally. Therefore, accurate status information on ESS battery can be measured and reliably monitored to prevent large accidents.

Economic Comparison of Wind Power Curtailment and ESS Operation for Mitigating Wind Power Forecasting Error (풍력발전 출력 예측오차 완화를 위한 출력제한운전과 ESS운전의 경제성 비교)

  • Wi, Young-Min;Jo, Hyung-Chul;Lee, Jaehee
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.67 no.2
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    • pp.158-164
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    • 2018
  • Wind power forecast is critical for efficient power system operation. However, wind power has high forecasting errors due to uncertainty caused by the climate change. These forecasting errors can have an adverse impact on the power system operation. In order to mitigate the issues caused by the wind power forecasting error, wind power curtailment and energy storage system (ESS) can be introduced in the power system. These methods can affect the economics of wind power resources. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the economics of the methods for mitigating the wind power forecasting error. This paper attempts to analyze the economics of wind power curtailment and ESS operation for mitigating wind power forecasting error. Numerical simulation results are presented to show the economic impact of wind power curtailment and ESS operation.