• IE interfaces
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.133-141
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• 2007

As the sales of the Sports Toto, the Korean lottery on sports games, have increased significantly in recent five years, interest in predicting the various results of sports matches has also been raised. Dixon and Coles (1997) proposed a bivariate Poisson model to predict the results of English soccer league matches. In this paper, we pay attention to the physical condition of players that may affect soccer match results and revise Dixon and Coles' model to consider probable fatigue due to the players' short rest followed by their frequent matches. We observed the fatigue effect in the match results, and found positive betting returns available when using our prediction model. Furthermore, the validity of probability-based odds in European and Korean betting markets is analyzed.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.47 no.10
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• pp.959-972
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• 2014

In this study, a space-time rainfall grid field generation model based on multifractal theory was verified using nine flood events in the upstream watershed of Chungju dam in South Korea. For this purpose, KMA radar rainfall data sets were analyzed for the space-time multifractal characteristics. Simulated rainfall fields that represent the multifractal characteristics of observed rainfall field were reproduced using the space-time rainfall grid field generation model with log-Poisson distribution and three-dimension wavelet function. Simulated rainfall fields were applied to the S-RAT model as input data and compared with both observed rainfall fields and low-resolution rainfall field runoff. Error analyses using RMSE, RRMSE, MAE, SS, NPE and PTE indicated that the peak discharge increases about 20.03% and the time to peak decreases about 0.81%.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.118-127
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• 2009

This study tries to develop model in order to assess personal factors of senior traffic accidents that are widely recognized as one of the social problems. For the current practice. it gathers data (Simulation & Questionnaire Survey) of KOTSA and conducts Poisson and Negative Binomial Regression Analysis to develop traffic accident severity model. The results show that elderly drivers' accidents are mainly affected by attentiveness selection, velocity prediction ability and attentiveness distribution ability in a positive(+) way. Second, non-senior drivers' accidents are also positively(+) influenced by attentiveness selection, velocity prediction, distance perception, attentiveness distribution ability and attentiveness diversion ability. Therefore, influencing factors of senior and non-senior drivers to vehicle accidents are different. This eventually poses a indication that preliminary education for car accident prevention should be implemented based up[n the distinction between senior drivers and non-senior drivers.

• The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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• v.8 no.5
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• pp.339-344
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• 2015

NHPP software reliability models for failure analysis can have, in the literature, exhibit either constant, monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing failure occurrence rates per fault. In this paper, infinite failures NHPP models that repairing software failure point in time reflects the situation, was presented for comparing property. Commonly used in the field of software reliability based on Weibull extension distribution software reliability of infinite failures was presented for comparison problem. The result is that a relatively large shape parameter was effectively. The parameters estimation using maximum likelihood estimation was conducted and Model selection was performed using the mean square error and the coefficient of determination. In this research, software developers to identify software failure property follows shape parameter, some extent be able to help is considered.

• The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.195-202
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• 2015

NHPP software reliability models for failure analysis can have, in the literature, exhibit either constant, monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing failure occurrence rates per fault. In this paper, finite failure NHPP models that assuming the expected value of the defect and infinite failures NHPP models that repairing software failure point in time reflects the situation, were presented for comparing property. Commonly used in the field of software reliability based on exponential power distribution software reliability model finite failures and infinite failures were presented for comparison problem. As a result, finite fault model is effectively infinite fault models, respectively. The parameters estimation using maximum likelihood estimation was conducted. In this research, software developers to identify software failure property some extent be able to help is considered.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.33 no.6
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• pp.554-563
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• 2015

This study dealt with developing an accident model for rural signalized intersections with random parameter negative binomial method. The limitation of previous count models(especially, Poisson/Negative Binomial model) is not to explain the integrated variations in terms of time and the distinctive characters a specific point/segment has. This drawback of the traditional count models results in the underestimation of the standard error(t-value inflation) of the derived coefficient and finally affects the low-reliability of the whole model. To solve this problem, this study improves the limitation of traditional count models by suggesting the use of random parameter which takes account of heterogeneity of each point/segment. Through the analyses, it was found that the increase of traffic flow and pedestrian facilities on minor streets had positive effects on the increase of traffic accidents. Left turning lanes and median on major streets reduced the number of accidents. The analysis results show that the random parameter modeling is an effective method for investigating the influence on traffic accident from road geometries. However, this study could not analyze the effects of sequential changes of driving conditions including geometries and safety facilities.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.99-110
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• 2008

It is commonly estimated that there is a much higher potential for accidents at a crossroads than along a single road due to its plethora of conflicting points. According to the 2006 figures by the National Police Agency, the number of traffic accidents at crossroads is greatly increasing compared to that along single roads. Among others, crossroads installed with traffic signals have more varied influential factors for traffic accidents and leave much more room for improvement than ones without traffic signals; thus, it is expected that a noticeable effect could be achieved in safety if proper counter-measures against the hazards at a crossroads were taken together with an estimate of causes for accidents This research managed to develop models for accident forecasts and accident intensity by applying data on accident history and site inspection of crossroads, targeting four selected downtown crossroads installed with traffic signals. The research was done by roughly dividing the process into four stages: first, analyze the accident model examined before; second, select variables affecting traffic accidents; third, develop a model for traffic accident forecasting by using a statistics-based methodology; and fourth, carry out the verification process of the models.

• Journal of Internet of Things and Convergence
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• v.6 no.4
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• pp.7-14
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• 2020

This study analyzed the effect of the number of deaths of circulatory system diseases according to 12-day short-term exposure of carbon monoxide from January 2010 to December 2018, and predicted the future treatment cost of circulatory system diseases according to increased carbon monoxide concentration. Data were extracted from Air Korea of Korea Environment Corporation and Korea Statistical Office, and analyzed using Poisson regression analysis and ARIMA intervention model. For statistical processing, SPSS Ver. 21.0 program was used. The results of the study are as follows. First, as a result of analyzing the relationship between the impact of short-term carbon monoxide exposure on death of circulatory system diseases from the day to the previous 11 days, it was found that the previous 11 days had the highest impact. Second, with the increase in carbon monoxide concentration, the future circulatory system disease treatment cost was estimated at 10,123 billion won in 2019, higher than the observed value of 9,443 billion won at the end of December 2018. In addition, when summarized by month, it can be seen that the cost of treatment for circulatory diseases increases from January to December, reflecting seasonal fluctuations. Through such research, the future for a healthy life for all citizens can be realized by distributing various devices and equipment utilizing IoT to preemptively respond to the increase in air pollutants such as carbon monoxide.

• Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.2829-2840
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• 2018

The random variable with an arbitrary value or more is called semi-continuous variable or zero-inflated one in case that its boundary value is more frequently observed than expected. This means the boundary value is likely to be practically observed more than it should be theoretically under certain probability distribution. When the distribution considered is continuous, the variable is defined as semi-continuous and when one of discrete distribution is assumed for the variable, we regard it as zero-inflated. In this study, we introduce the two-part model, which consists of one part for modelling the binary response and the other part for modelling the variable greater than the boundary value. Especially, the zero-inflated regression models are explained by using Poisson distribution and negative binomial distribution. In real data analysis, we employ the zero-inflated regression models to estimate the number of days under extreme heat-wave circumstances during the last 10 years in South Korea. Based on the estimation results, we create prediction maps for the estimated number of days under heat-wave advisory and heat-wave warning by using the universal kriging, which is one of the spatial prediction methods.

• The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.141-147
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• 2016

NHPP software reliability models for failure analysis can have, in the literature, exhibit either constant, monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing failure occurrence rates per fault. In this paper, infinite failures NHPP models that repairing software failure point in time reflects the situation, was presented for comparing property. Commonly used in the field of software reliability based on Flexible Weibull extension distribution software reliability of infinite failures was presented for comparison problem. The result is that a relatively small shaping parameter was effectively. The parameters estimation using maximum likelihood estimation was conducted and model selection was performed using the mean square error and the coefficient of determination.. In this research, software developers to identify software failure property follows shape parameter, some extent be able to help is considered.