• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.50 no.11
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• pp.769-779
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• 2017

As the occurrence of drought is recently on the rise, the reliable drought forecasting is required for developing the drought mitigation and proactive management of water resources. This study developed a probabilistic hydrological drought forecasting method using the Bayesian Networks and drought propagation relationship to estimate future drought with the forecast uncertainty, named as the Propagated Bayesian Networks Drought Forecasting (PBNDF) model. The proposed PBNDF model was composed with 4 nodes of past, current, multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasted information and the drought propagation relationship. Using Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI), the PBNDF model was applied to forecast the hydrological drought condition at 10 gauging stations in Nakdong River basin. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis was applied to measure the forecast skill of the forecast mean values. The root mean squared error (RMSE) and skill score (SS) were employed to compare the forecast performance with previously developed forecast models (persistence forecast, Bayesian network drought forecast). We found that the forecast skill of PBNDF model showed better performance with low RMSE and high SS of 0.1~0.15. The overall results mean the PBNDF model had good potential in probabilistic drought forecasting.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.55 no.9
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• pp.679-686
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• 2022

As the occurrences of flash floods have increased due to climate change, faster and more accurate precipitation observation using X-band radar has become important. Therefore, the Ministry of Environment installed two dual-pol X-band radars at Samcheok and Uljin. The radar data used in this study were obtained from two different elevation angles and composed to reduce the shielding effect. To obtain quantitative rainfall, quality control (QC), K_DP retrieval, and Hybrid Surface Rainfall (HSR) methods were sequentially applied. To improve the accuracy of the quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) of the X-band radar, we retrieved parameters for the relationship between rainfall rate and specific differential phase, which is commonly called the R-K_DP relationship; hence, an empirical approach was developed using multiple rain gauges for those two radars. The newly suggested relationship, R = 27.4K^0.81_DP, slightly increased the correlation coefficient by 1% more than the relationship suggested by the previous study. The root mean square error significantly decreased from 3.88 mm/hr to 3.68 mm/hr, and the bias of the estimated precipitation also decreased from -1.72 mm/hr to -0.92 mm/hr for overall cases, showing the improvement of the new method.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.36 no.5
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• pp.415-445
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• 2023

Oftentimes, the time dependent treatment covariate and the time dependent confounders exist in observation studies. It is an important problem to correctly adjust for the time dependent confounders in the propensity score analysis. Recently, In the survival data, Hade et al. (2020) used a propensity score matching method to correctly estimate the treatment delay effect when the time dependent confounder affects time to the treatment time, where the treatment delay effects is defined to the delay in treatment reception. In this paper, we proposed the Cox model based marginal structural model (Cox-MSM) framework to estimate the treatment delay effect and conducted extensive simulation studies to compare our proposed Cox-MSM with the propensity score matching method proposed by Hade et al. (2020). Our simulation results showed that the Cox-MSM leads to more exact estimate for the treatment delay effect compared with two sequential matching schemes based on propensity scores. Example from study in treatment discontinuation in conjunction with simulated data illustrates the practical advantages of the proposed Cox-MSM.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.36 no.5
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• pp.381-397
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• 2023

The most representative design used in clinical trials is randomization, which is used to accurately estimate the treatment effect. However, comparison between the treatment group and the control group in an observational study without randomization is biased due to various unadjusted differences, such as characteristics between patients. Propensity score weighting is a widely used method to address these problems and to minimize bias by adjusting those confounding and assess treatment effects. Inverse probability weighting, the most popular method, assigns weights that are proportional to the inverse of the conditional probability of receiving a specific treatment assignment, given observed covariates. However, this method is often suffered by extreme propensity scores, resulting in biased estimates and excessive variance. Several alternative methods including trimming, overlap weights, and matching weights have been proposed to mitigate these issues. In this paper, we conduct a simulation study to compare performance of various propensity score weighting methods under diverse situation, such as limited overlap, misspecified propensity score, and treatment contrary to prediction. From the simulation results overlap weights and matching weights consistently outperform inverse probability weighting and trimming in terms of bias, root mean squared error and coverage probability.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.93-102
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• 2005

An Origin-Destination (O/D) is considered as one of the important information in route choices and trip assignments. A household interview survey is deemed to be the traditional and the most widely used method in making sample O/D and its conversion to the total O/D. Some researchers have studied to estimate dynamic O/D from the relationship between link volumes and trip assignment model. Nowadays, owing to the recent rapid spread of cellular phones. Location information of the cellular phone through the Base Station(BS) is considered as an alternative to O/D estimation. In this study, the methodology of generating BS-based O/D and the methodology of converting this O/D into an administrative district-based O/D are proposed. The information of GPS positions and cellular BS positions have acquired by establishing GPS equipment and cellular phone on taxies in Cheongju. Three weeks data are collected and used in estimating O/D by matching them on a digital map. Scatter diagram and sample correlation coefficients are used to investigate the similarity of the GPS-based O/D pattern among weeks, among days, and among times in day. The results show that there are few significant differences among weeks. But there is a difference in O/C pattern between weekday and weekend. Furthermore, there is a difference between morning peak and afternoon peak. Two methodologies are proposed to convert BS-based O/D into an administrative district-based O/D. The first one is to use the distribution pattern of GPS coordinates, the other is to use the coverage area of the BSs. To validate such converted O/D, GPS O/D is used as a true value. The statical analyses through scatter diagram, MAE and RMSE shows that there is few significant defference of pattern between the estimated BS-based O/D and GPS O/D. In the case of using only cellular information, the methodology using coverage area of the BSs is recommended for estimating O/D.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.35 no.3
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• pp.679-690
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• 2015

The need to remove the cause of traffic accidents by improving the engineering system for a vehicle and the road in order to minimize the accident hazard. This is likely to cause traffic accident continue to take a large and significant social cost and time to improve the reliability and efficiency of this generally poor road, thereby generating a lot of damage to the national traffic accident caused by improper environmental factors. In order to minimize damage from traffic accidents, the cause of accidents must be eliminated through technological improvements of vehicles and road systems. Generally, it is highly probable that traffic accident occurs more often on roads that lack safety measures, and can only be improved with tremendous time and costs. In particular, traffic accidents at intersections are on the rise due to inappropriate environmental factors, and are causing great losses for the nation as a whole. This study aims to present safety countermeasures against the cause of accidents by developing an intersection Traffic safety evaluation model. It will also diagnose vulnerable traffic points through BPA (Back -propagation algorithm) among artificial neural networks recently investigated in the area of artificial intelligence. Furthermore, it aims to pursue a more efficient traffic safety improvement project in terms of operating signalized intersections and establishing traffic safety policies. As a result of conducting this study, the mean square error approximate between the predicted values and actual measured values of traffic accidents derived from the BPA is estimated to be 3.89. It appeared that the BPA appeared to have excellent traffic safety evaluating abilities compared to the multiple regression model. In other words, The BPA can be effectively utilized in diagnosing and practical establishing transportation policy in the safety of actual signalized intersections.

• Korean Journal of Optics and Photonics
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.108-115
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• 2017

We report the assembly procedure and performance evaluation of a visible and near-infrared spectrometer in the wavelength region of 400-900 nm, which is later to be combined with fore-optics (a telescope) to form a f/2.5 imaging spectrometer with a field of view of ${\pm}7.68^{\circ}$. The detector at the final image plane is a $640{\times}480$ charge-coupled device with a $24{\mu}m$ pixel size. The spectrometer is in an Offner relay configuration consisting of two concentric, spherical mirrors, the secondary of which is replaced by a convex grating mirror. A double-pass test method with an interferometer is often applied in the assembly process of precision optics, but was excluded from our study due to a large residual wavefront error (WFE) in optical design of 210 nm ($0.35{\lambda}$ at 600 nm) root-mean-square (RMS). This results in a single-path test method with a Shack-Hartmann sensor. The final assembly was tested to have a RMS WFE increase of less than 90 nm over the entire field of view, a keystone of 0.08 pixels, a smile of 1.13 pixels and a spectral resolution of 4.32 nm. During the procedure, we confirmed the validity of using a Shack-Hartmann wavefront sensor to monitor alignment in the assembly of an Offner-like spectrometer.