• Title/Summary/Keyword: 평균수명예측

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Creep-Life Prediction and Its Error Analysis by the Time Temperature Parameters and the Minimum Commitment Method (시간-온도 파라미터법과 최소구속법에 의한 크리프 수명예측과 오차 분석)

  • Yin, Song-Nan;Ryu, Woo-Seog;Yi, Won;Kim, Woo-Gon
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.31 no.2 s.257
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    • pp.160-165
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    • 2007
  • To predict long-term creep life from short-term creep life data, various parametric methods such as Larson-Mille. (L-M), Orr-Sherby-Dorn (O-S-D), Manson-Haferd (M-H) parameters, and a Minimum Commitment Method (MCM) were suggested. A number of the creep data were collected through literature surveys and experimental data produced in KAERI. The polynomial equations for type 316LN SS were obtained by the time-temperature parameters (TTP) and the MCM. Standard error (SE) and standard error of mean (SEM) values were obtained and compared with the each method for various temperatures. The TTP methods showed good creep-life prediction, but the MCM was much superior to the TTP ones at $700^{\circ}C$ and $750^{\circ}C$. It was found that the MCM were lower in the SE values when compared to the TTP methods.

The Second Demographic Transition in Industrialized Countries (산업국가에서의 제2차 인구변천)

  • Chung, Sung-Ho
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.139-164
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    • 2009
  • The first demographic transition refers to the historical decline in mortality and fertility, as shown from the 18th Century in several European populations, and continuing present in most developing countries. The end point of the first demographic transition(FDT) was supposed to be a stationary and stable population corresponding with replacement fertility and zero population growth. In addition, households in all parts of the world would converge toward the nuclear and conjugal types, composed of married couples and their offspring. The second demographic transition(SDT), on the other hand, sees no such equilibrium as the end-point. Rather, new developments bring sub-replacement fertility, a multitude of living arrangements other than marriage, and the disconnection between marriage and procreation. Populations would face declining sizes if not complemented by new migrants. Over the last decades birth rates have been on the decline in all countries of the world, and it is estimated that already more than half of he world's population has below replacement level fertility. Measured in terms of the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), currently 34 countries have fertility levels of 1.5 or less. Similarly, Korea has been below lowest-low fertility for eight consecutive years since 2001 and below the replacement level for more than twenty years. In explaining the low fertility in Korea, some researchers explain the low fertility as revenge against a male-dominated society and institution, while others focus the impact of the employment instability. These studies share the basic ideas (spread of individualism, delayed marriage and childbearing, high divorce rate etc.) of a second demographic transition in order to explain the low fertility in Korea.

Study on the Maintenance Interval Decisions for Life expectancy in Railway Turnout clearance Detector (철도 분기기 밀착검지기 Life expectancy의 유지보수 주기 결정에 관한 연구)

  • Jang, ByeongMok;Lee, Jongwoo
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.491-499
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    • 2017
  • Railway turnout systems are one of the most important systems in a railway and abnormal turnout systems can cause serious accidents. To detect an abnormal state of a turnout, turnout clearance detectors are widely used. These devices consider a failure of a turnout clearance detectors to be a failure of the turnout system, that could hinder train operations. Analysis of turnout clearance detector failures is very important to ensure normal train operation. We categorized failures of detectors into four groups to identify failure characteristics of the 140 detectors, which are composed of main line detectors (A), side tracks (B), detectors that are in operation more than 80 times a day (C) and detectors that are in operation fewer than 10 times per day. Failures of detectors have mainly been caused in the control part, in the cables and sensors; failures are classified into four groups (A, B, C and D). We have tried to find failure density distributions for each type of failures, inferring the parameter distributions a priori. Finally, using the Bayesian inference we proposed a maintenance time for control parts through the mean time of the detector, life and the life expectancy.

Time Dependent Evaluation of Corrosion Free Life of Concrete Tunnel Structures Based on the Reliability Theory (해저 콘크리트 구조물의 신뢰성 이론에 의한 시간 의존적 내구수명 평가)

  • Pack, Seung Woo;Jung, Min Sun
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.142-154
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    • 2011
  • This study predicted the probability of corrosion initiation of reinforced concrete tunnel boxes structures using the Monte Carlo Simulation. For the inner wall and outer wall in the tunnel boxes, exposed to airborne chloride ion and seawater directly respectively, statistical values of parameters like diffusion coefficient D, surface chloride content $C_s$, cover depth c, and the chloride threshold level $C_{lim}$ were examined from experiment or literature review. Their average values accounted for $3.77{\times}10^{-12}m^2/s$, 3.0% by weight of cement, 94.7mm and 45.5mm for outer wall and inner wall, respectively, and 0.69% by weight of cement for D, $C_s$, c, and $C_{lim}$, respectively. With these parametric values, the distribution of chloride contents at rebar with time and the probability of corrosion initiation of the tunnel boxes, inner wall and outer wall, was examined by considering time dependency of chloride transport. From the examination, the histogram of chloride contents at rebar is closer to a gamma distribution, and the mean value increases with time, while the coefficient of variance decreases with time. It was found that the probability of corrosion initiation and the time to corrosion were dependent on the time dependency of chloride transport. Time independent model predicted time to corrosion initiation of inner wall and outer wall as 8 and 12 years, respectively, while 178 and 283 years of time to corrosion was calculated by time dependent model for inner wall and outer wall, respectively. For time independent model, the probability of corrosion at 100 years of exposure for inner wall and outer wall was ranged 59.5 and 95.5%, respectively, while time dependent model indicated 2.9 and 0.2% of the probability corrosion, respectively. Finally, impact of $C_{lim}$, including values specified in current codes, on the probability of corrosion initiation and corrosion free life is discussed.

Evaluation of Excess Lung Cancer Risk in Korean due to Indoor Exposure to Natural $^{222}Rn$ Progenies (한국인의 실내 라돈-222 자핵종 피폭으로 인한 초과 폐암위험)

  • Chang, Si-Young;Ha, Chung-Woo;Lee, Byung-Hun
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.57-70
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    • 1992
  • An excess risk of lung cancer mortality among Koreans, attributable to indoor $^{222}Rn$ daughters exposure, were quantitatively evaluated by applying a stochastic health risk projection model on the radiation exposure. The lung cancer rate in Korean males and females, based on the 1989 demographic data, were estimated to be $22.4/10^5-y\;and\;9.5/10^5-y$, respectively The lifetime baseline lung cancer risks, deduced from these rates, appeared to be 0.047 and 0.019 for males and females, respectively, and were lower than the corresponding 1984 values of 0.067 and 0.025 in the U.S.A. The excess risk coefficients, derived by modified relative risk projection model of the BEIR-IV Committee under the US National Academy of Science, per annual 1.0 WLM of exposure to indoor radon daughters were estimated to be 0.022/WLM for males, 0.009/WLM for females, and 0.017/WLM for both sexes. The resulting annual frequency of excess lung cancer mortality for the life expectancy in the Korean population appeared to be 230/10^6-WLM, which was an approximate median of $120{\sim}450/10^6-WLM$ reported so far in the world.

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Seed Longevity of Rice Germplasm in the National Agrobiodiversity Center (종자은행 보존 벼 유전자원의 생태형별 종자수명)

  • Na, Young-Wang;Choi, Yu-Mi;Baek, Hyung-Jin;Lee, Sok-Young;Kang, Jung-Hun;Kim, Seok-Hyeon
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.59 no.3
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    • pp.216-222
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study was to know the seed longevity of rice (Oryza sativa L.) germplasm for effective viability monitoring. The longevity was determined via germination tests of 3,066 accessions of rice germplasm from the National Agrobiodiversity Center, Rural Development Administration, Korea. The rice germplasm accessions have been conserved at a mid-term storage ($4^{\circ}C$, 30% RH) in plastic bottle containing dehydrated (blue) silica-gel and long-term storage ($-18^{\circ}C$, 35% RH) in hermetically sealed metal can on either sides for 25~26.5 years. The final germination percentages of 3,066 rice germplasm accessions of $6.5{\pm}1.0%$ seed moisture content with 94% initial germination stored at $4^{\circ}C$ for 26.5 years declined to 47% while at $-18^{\circ}C$ for 25 years maintained high germinability as 93%. Germination time courses, which represent the average performance of rice ecotypes stored at $4^{\circ}C$ and 30% RH, were fitted regression equation, to calculate the time at which germination characteristically declined to 50% ($P_{50}$). These $P_{50}$ values of Indica, Japonica, Javanica and Tongil type in rice were 39.9, 22.9, 25.4 and 31.8 years, respectively. The rice germplasm stored at $4^{\circ}C$ could be clustered in 4 groups using quartile of final germination after 26.5 years storage. The seed longevity ($P_{50}$) of each group was estimated by regression equation of changed germination percentages according to storage periods. The $P_{50}$ values of group I, group II, group III and group IV were 21.1, 23.6, 30.0 and 75.7 years.

A Numerical Model for Predicting the Radial Power Profile in CANDU-PHWR Fuel Pellet (CANDU-PHWR 핵연료 소결체의 반경방향 출력분포 수치모형)

  • Woan Hwang;Suk, Ho-Chun;Jae, Won-Mok
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.444-455
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    • 1991
  • An accurate and fast running NEDAR model for calculating radial power profile throughout fuel life in both solid and annular pellets for existing and advanced CANDU-PHWR-fuel was developed in this work. This model contains resultant flux depression equations and neutron depression data tables which have been developed for CANDU-PHWR fuel of pellet with the diameter 8.0 to 19.5 mm and enrichment 0.71-6.0 wt % U-235, over a bumup range of 0 to 840 MWh /kgU (35000 MWD/T). In order to obtain the neutron flux distribution in the fuel pellet, the CE-HAMMER physics code was run for a neutron flux spectrum appropriate to a CANDU-PHWR to give predictions of radial power profile for several ranges of fuel design parameters. The results, which were calculated by the CE-HAMMER physics code, were fitted to an equation which is solved in terms of Bessel and exponential functions in order to obtain the parameters, $textsc{k}$, $\beta$ and λ in the resultant equation. The present NEDAR model produce a radial profile which, when normalized to unity at the pellet surface, is slightly higher than the profile of the original ELESIM data table. The predictions of the fission gas release by KAFEPA-NEDAR are in slightly better agreement with the experiments than those of ELESIM. The NEDAR model described in this study has been shown to provide an effective, reliable, and accurate method for determining radial power profiles in CANDU-PHWR fuel rods without incurring a significant increase in computing time.

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A Research on the Estimation Method for the SOC of the Lithium Batteries Using AC Impedance (AC 임피던스를 이용한 리튬 전지의 충전상태 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-Hak;Kim, Sang-Hyun;Kim, Wook;Choi, Woo-Jin
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Power Electronics
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.457-465
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    • 2009
  • Lithium batteries are widely used in mobile electronic devices due to their higher voltage and energy density, lighter weight and longer life cycle compared to other secondary batteries. In particular, high demand for lithium batteries is expected for electric cars. In case of lithium batteries used in electric cars, driving distance must be calculated accurately and discharging should not be done below the level of making it impossible to crank. Therefore, accurate information about state of charge (SOC) becomes an essential element for reliable driving. In this paper, a new method of estimating the SOC of lithium polymer batteries by using AC impedance is proposed. In the proposed method, parameters are extracted by fitting a curve of impedance measured at each frequency on the equivalent impedance model and extracted parameters are used to estimate SOC. Experiments were conducted on lithium polymer batteries with similar capacities made by different manufacturers to prove the validity of the proposed method.

Prediction of Steady-State Stresses within Heat Affected Zone Due to Creep Mismatch in Welded Straight Pipes (직관 용접부의 크리프 특성 불균일에 따른 열영향부 정상상태 응력 예측)

  • Han, Jae-Jun;Kim, Sang-Hyun;Chung, Jin-Taek;Kim, Yun-Jae
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.405-412
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    • 2013
  • This paper reports the steady-state stresses within the heat affected zone (HAZ) of a welded straight pipe subject to creep. The creep constants and exponent are varied systematically to see the effect of various mismatches in creep properties on the steady-state creep stresses, via detailed two-dimensional finite element (FE) creep analyses. The weldments consist of the base metal and weld metal with the HAZ, which are characterized using the idealized power creep laws with the same creep exponent. The internal pressure and axial loading are considered to see the effect of the loading mode. To quantify the creep stresses, a creep mismatch factor is introduced as a function of the creep constants and exponent. It is concluded that the ratio of the section-averaged stresses for a mismatched case to those for an evenmatched case are linearly dependent on the mismatch factor. The results are compared with the FE results, including the Type IV region, as well as the R5 procedure.

Analysis of Longevity Factor through Japan shinise (일본 시니세를 통해 본 장수요인분석)

  • Choi, Seung-Il;Kim, Dong-Il
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.85-92
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    • 2015
  • Recently more and more shortened of corporation's sustainable longevity at the enterprise, and enterprise environment is also changing drastically. In this study, we wanted to obtain a solution that enable to continue the company's corporate longevity through critical factor analysis of the Japan Shinise. In the analysis results of Japan corporation as Doraya, Deicoko, Shinise longevity, we can explain about critical factors like that credit, tradition, customization, products development, changes of management methods and finding a global new markets. Also, In this study, analyzed a significance of critical factors for focusing on each cases and theories using Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP), and did prediction and analysis about critical longevity factors. However, it need to collect sufficient data and a lots of variables for input. because the sample may be it insufficient. Results of the study, will be expected to be a useful guide for analysis of longevity factors at the company in the future.