• Title/Summary/Keyword: 패턴인식 시스템

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Bankruptcy Forecasting Model using AdaBoost: A Focus on Construction Companies (적응형 부스팅을 이용한 파산 예측 모형: 건설업을 중심으로)

  • Heo, Junyoung;Yang, Jin Yong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.35-48
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    • 2014
  • According to the 2013 construction market outlook report, the liquidation of construction companies is expected to continue due to the ongoing residential construction recession. Bankruptcies of construction companies have a greater social impact compared to other industries. However, due to the different nature of the capital structure and debt-to-equity ratio, it is more difficult to forecast construction companies' bankruptcies than that of companies in other industries. The construction industry operates on greater leverage, with high debt-to-equity ratios, and project cash flow focused on the second half. The economic cycle greatly influences construction companies. Therefore, downturns tend to rapidly increase the bankruptcy rates of construction companies. High leverage, coupled with increased bankruptcy rates, could lead to greater burdens on banks providing loans to construction companies. Nevertheless, the bankruptcy prediction model concentrated mainly on financial institutions, with rare construction-specific studies. The bankruptcy prediction model based on corporate finance data has been studied for some time in various ways. However, the model is intended for all companies in general, and it may not be appropriate for forecasting bankruptcies of construction companies, who typically have high liquidity risks. The construction industry is capital-intensive, operates on long timelines with large-scale investment projects, and has comparatively longer payback periods than in other industries. With its unique capital structure, it can be difficult to apply a model used to judge the financial risk of companies in general to those in the construction industry. Diverse studies of bankruptcy forecasting models based on a company's financial statements have been conducted for many years. The subjects of the model, however, were general firms, and the models may not be proper for accurately forecasting companies with disproportionately large liquidity risks, such as construction companies. The construction industry is capital-intensive, requiring significant investments in long-term projects, therefore to realize returns from the investment. The unique capital structure means that the same criteria used for other industries cannot be applied to effectively evaluate financial risk for construction firms. Altman Z-score was first published in 1968, and is commonly used as a bankruptcy forecasting model. It forecasts the likelihood of a company going bankrupt by using a simple formula, classifying the results into three categories, and evaluating the corporate status as dangerous, moderate, or safe. When a company falls into the "dangerous" category, it has a high likelihood of bankruptcy within two years, while those in the "safe" category have a low likelihood of bankruptcy. For companies in the "moderate" category, it is difficult to forecast the risk. Many of the construction firm cases in this study fell in the "moderate" category, which made it difficult to forecast their risk. Along with the development of machine learning using computers, recent studies of corporate bankruptcy forecasting have used this technology. Pattern recognition, a representative application area in machine learning, is applied to forecasting corporate bankruptcy, with patterns analyzed based on a company's financial information, and then judged as to whether the pattern belongs to the bankruptcy risk group or the safe group. The representative machine learning models previously used in bankruptcy forecasting are Artificial Neural Networks, Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) and, the Support Vector Machine (SVM). There are also many hybrid studies combining these models. Existing studies using the traditional Z-Score technique or bankruptcy prediction using machine learning focus on companies in non-specific industries. Therefore, the industry-specific characteristics of companies are not considered. In this paper, we confirm that adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) is the most appropriate forecasting model for construction companies by based on company size. We classified construction companies into three groups - large, medium, and small based on the company's capital. We analyzed the predictive ability of AdaBoost for each group of companies. The experimental results showed that AdaBoost has more predictive ability than the other models, especially for the group of large companies with capital of more than 50 billion won.

Query-based Answer Extraction using Korean Dependency Parsing (의존 구문 분석을 이용한 질의 기반 정답 추출)

  • Lee, Dokyoung;Kim, Mintae;Kim, Wooju
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.161-177
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    • 2019
  • In this paper, we study the performance improvement of the answer extraction in Question-Answering system by using sentence dependency parsing result. The Question-Answering (QA) system consists of query analysis, which is a method of analyzing the user's query, and answer extraction, which is a method to extract appropriate answers in the document. And various studies have been conducted on two methods. In order to improve the performance of answer extraction, it is necessary to accurately reflect the grammatical information of sentences. In Korean, because word order structure is free and omission of sentence components is frequent, dependency parsing is a good way to analyze Korean syntax. Therefore, in this study, we improved the performance of the answer extraction by adding the features generated by dependency parsing analysis to the inputs of the answer extraction model (Bidirectional LSTM-CRF). The process of generating the dependency graph embedding consists of the steps of generating the dependency graph from the dependency parsing result and learning the embedding of the graph. In this study, we compared the performance of the answer extraction model when inputting basic word features generated without the dependency parsing and the performance of the model when inputting the addition of the Eojeol tag feature and dependency graph embedding feature. Since dependency parsing is performed on a basic unit of an Eojeol, which is a component of sentences separated by a space, the tag information of the Eojeol can be obtained as a result of the dependency parsing. The Eojeol tag feature means the tag information of the Eojeol. The process of generating the dependency graph embedding consists of the steps of generating the dependency graph from the dependency parsing result and learning the embedding of the graph. From the dependency parsing result, a graph is generated from the Eojeol to the node, the dependency between the Eojeol to the edge, and the Eojeol tag to the node label. In this process, an undirected graph is generated or a directed graph is generated according to whether or not the dependency relation direction is considered. To obtain the embedding of the graph, we used Graph2Vec, which is a method of finding the embedding of the graph by the subgraphs constituting a graph. We can specify the maximum path length between nodes in the process of finding subgraphs of a graph. If the maximum path length between nodes is 1, graph embedding is generated only by direct dependency between Eojeol, and graph embedding is generated including indirect dependencies as the maximum path length between nodes becomes larger. In the experiment, the maximum path length between nodes is adjusted differently from 1 to 3 depending on whether direction of dependency is considered or not, and the performance of answer extraction is measured. Experimental results show that both Eojeol tag feature and dependency graph embedding feature improve the performance of answer extraction. In particular, considering the direction of the dependency relation and extracting the dependency graph generated with the maximum path length of 1 in the subgraph extraction process in Graph2Vec as the input of the model, the highest answer extraction performance was shown. As a result of these experiments, we concluded that it is better to take into account the direction of dependence and to consider only the direct connection rather than the indirect dependence between the words. The significance of this study is as follows. First, we improved the performance of answer extraction by adding features using dependency parsing results, taking into account the characteristics of Korean, which is free of word order structure and omission of sentence components. Second, we generated feature of dependency parsing result by learning - based graph embedding method without defining the pattern of dependency between Eojeol. Future research directions are as follows. In this study, the features generated as a result of the dependency parsing are applied only to the answer extraction model in order to grasp the meaning. However, in the future, if the performance is confirmed by applying the features to various natural language processing models such as sentiment analysis or name entity recognition, the validity of the features can be verified more accurately.

Fertilizing Effects of Swine Compost Fermented with Sawdust on Mixed Pastures (혼파초지에 대한 톱밥발효돈분의 시용효과)

  • Shin, J. Soon;Cho, Young-Mu;Lee, Hyo-Ho;Yoon, Sea-Hung;Park, Geun-Je;Choi, Ki-Chun
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.245-252
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    • 2004
  • Experiment was carried out to find the fertilizing effects of 8 different application rates of swine compost fermented with sawdust(SCS) including Chemical fertilizer(CF) on forage yield and soil chemical characteristics of mixed pastures sown in Sep. 1993 at National Livestock Research Institute, RDA., in Suwon during low years. It was arranged in a randomized complete block design with three replicates. Dry matter yield were shown at similar among treatments except Control and $50\%$ SCS of standard amount plot. In botanical composition, the legume and weeds percentages of each treatment were increased as advancing year. The final year's legume percentage were high in line with SCS fertilizing plots($39\%{\sim}43\%$), SCS + CF plots($30\%{\sim}41\%$) and CF plot($32\%$). In productions of TDN, NE and crude protein yield, SCS or SCS($75\%$) + CF($25\%$) were nearly same comparing those of CF, respectively. Phosphate, potassium, magnesium contents and K/(Ca + Mg) except calcium contents of those SCS fertilizing plots in plant were generally high with comparing CF. Those contents were proportional according to the fertilizing amount These result indicate the possibility to substitute chemical fertilizer for SCS($75\%$, 25ton/ha) + CF, $25\%$) as manure-N 210 kg/ha, but might be considered accumulation phosphate in the soil.

The Relationships among Perceived Value, Use-Diffusion, Loyalty of Mobile Instant Messaging Service (모바일 메신저 서비스의 지각된 가치, 사용-확산 그리고 충성도 간의 관계에 대한 연구)

  • Jo, Dong-Hyuk;Park, Jong-Woo;Chun, Hyun-Jae
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.193-212
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    • 2011
  • Mobile instant messaging service is surfacing to an important keyword in the mobile market together with popularization of Smart phones. Mobile instant messaging service in Korea has become popular to the degree of 87.9% usages from total Smartphone holders, and it is expected that using populations will be more enlarged afterwards if considering a fact that its populations of Smartphone is continuously being increased after exceeding 10 million persons (Trend Monitor, June 2011). In the instant messaging market where competitions have been deepened day by day, raising customer's royalties will be the key for company's business survivals and goals of corporate marketing strategies. It could be said that understanding on which factors affect to customer retentions and royalties is very important. Specially, as changing status is being progressed very quickly in case of innovative mobile services like the instant messaging service, research necessities on how many do consumers use the services after accepting them, how much do consumers use them variously, and whether does it connect to long-term relations have been increased, but studies on such matters are in insufficient situations actually. Therefore, this study examined on which effects were affected to use-diffusion and loyalty factors from perceived customer vales' factors having been occurred after accepting the mobile instant messaging service, namely 'functional value', 'monetary value', 'emotional value', and 'social value'. Also, the study looked into what kind of roles do the service usage and using variety play to service's continued using intents as a loyalty index, recommending intents to others, and brand switching intents. And then the study laid the main purpose in trying to provide implications for enhancing customer securities and royalties on the mobile instant messaging service through research's results. The research hypotheses are as follows; H1: Perceived values will affect influences to royalties. H2: Use-Diffusion will affect influences to loyalty. H3: Perceived value will affect influences to loyalty. H4: The use-diffusion will play intermediating roles between perceived values and loyalty. Total 276 cases among collected 284 ones were used for the statistical analysis by SPSS ver. 15 package. Reliability, Factor analysis, regression were done. As the result of research, 'monetary value' and 'emotional value' affected to 'usage' among perceived value factors, and 'emotional value' was appeared as affecting the largest influence. Besides, the usage affected to constant-using intents and recommending intents to others, and using varieties were displayed as affecting to recommending intents to others. On the other hand, 'Using' and 'Using diversity' were appeared as not affecting to 'brand switching intentions'. Meanwhile, as the result of recognizing about effects of perceived values on the loyalty, it was appeared such like 'continued using intents' affected to'functional value', 'monetary value', and 'social value' first, and also 'monetary value', 'emotional value', and 'social value' affected to 'recommending intents to others'. On the other hand, it was shown such like only 'social value' affected influences to 'brand switching intents', and thus contrary results with the factor 'constant-using intents' were displayed. So, it seems that there are many applications to service provides who are worrying about marketing strategies for making consumer retains (constant-using) and new consumer's inductions (brand-switching intents). Finally, as a result of looking into intermediating roles of the use-diffusion factor in relations between conceived values and royalties at hypothesis 4, 'using' and 'using diversity' were displayed as affecting significant influences all together. Regarding to research result's implications, for expanding and promoting continued uses of the mobile instant messaging service by service providers: First, encouraging recognitions on the perceived value connected to users' service usage are necessary. Second, setting up user's use-diffusion strategies are required so as to enhance the loyalty after understanding a fact that use-diffusion patterns affecting to the service's loyalty are different. Finally, methods of raising customer loyalties and making constant relationships have to be grouped by analyzing on what are the customer value's factors that can satisfy users in competitive alterations.

A study on design process for public space by users behavioral characteristics (이용자 행태 특성에 의한 공용공간의 디자인 프로세스 연구)

  • 김개천;김범중
    • Archives of design research
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.89-98
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    • 2004
  • A systemic approach to behavior on the basis of human psychology is needed for behavior-centered space design. Also, the recognition that human and environment, in all, have complementarity is needed- human and space shall be understood as a general phenomenon, supposing interaction. Design of behavior-oriented space means configuration and coordination of physical subjects as well as understanding, analysis and reflection of psychological and behavioral phenomena. It is analysis of a private individual as well as understanding of interaction between human groups, as well. In respect of space recognition, analysis not on material movement but on energy circulation and variable is important. It means that the understanding of user's behavior and psychology does not orient reasonable purpose just for convenience. That is, such understanding intends to understand behavioral patterns and psychological phenomena between space and human beyond the decomposition of structure of human and space into physical elements and the design based on standardized data. Thereby, more human-oriented space design might be implemented by the understanding of behavioral essence. Also, a user-centered design process from another viewpoint might be created, and the general amenity among man, space and environment - better environmental quality - might be produced. For this, the consciousness of human activity that is, activity system shall be ahead of it, and the approaches for design shall be implemented into a process not in predictive ideas but in semi-scientific system. On the basis of the above view, this study was attempted to investigate the orientation of design to recognize space as another life, and explore a process where it is drawn into a design language on the basis of human behavior. If the essence of space behavior and the activity system are analyzed through user observation and it is reflected upon a space design program and then developed into a formative language, a new design process on human and environment might be produced. In conclusion, the reflection of user's behavior and psychology into design, contrary to existing public space design based on physical data, can orient quality improvement of human life and ultimately be helpful to the proposition, 'humanization of space'.

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Exploring Mask Appeal: Vertical vs. Horizontal Fold Flat Masks Using Eye-Tracking (마스크 매력 탐구: 아이트래킹을 활용한 수직 접이형 대 수평 접이형 마스크 비교 분석)

  • Junsik Lee;Nan-Hee Jeong;Ji-Chan Yun;Do-Hyung Park;Se-Bum Park
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.271-286
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    • 2023
  • The global COVID-19 pandemic has transformed face masks from situational accessories to indispensable items in daily life, prompting a shift in public perception and behavior. While the relaxation of mandatory mask-wearing regulations is underway, a significant number of individuals continue to embrace face masks, turning them into a form of personal expression and identity. This phenomenon has given rise to the Fashion Mask industry, characterized by unique designs and colors, experiencing rapid growth in the market. However, existing research on masks is predominantly focused on their efficacy in preventing infection or exploring attitudes during the pandemic, leaving a gap in understanding consumer preferences for mask design. We address this gap by investigating consumer perceptions and preferences for two prevalent mask designs-horizontal fold flat masks and vertical fold flat masks. Through a comprehensive approach involving surveys and eye-tracking experiments, we aim to unravel the subtle differences in how consumers perceive these designs. Our research questions focus on determining which design is more appealing and exploring the reasons behind any observed differences. The study's findings reveal a clear preference for vertical fold flat masks, which are not only preferred but also perceived as unique, sophisticated, three-dimensional, and lively. The eye-tracking analysis provides insights into the visual attention patterns associated with mask designs, highlighting the pivotal role of the fold line in influencing these patterns. This research contributes to the evolving understanding of masks as a fashion statement and provides valuable insights for manufacturers and marketers in the Fashion Mask industry. The results have implications beyond the pandemic, emphasizing the importance of design elements in sustaining consumer interest in face masks.

Development of an Automatic Seed Marker Registration Algorithm Using CT and kV X-ray Images (CT 영상 및 kV X선 영상을 이용한 자동 표지 맞춤 알고리듬 개발)

  • Cheong, Kwang-Ho;Cho, Byung-Chul;Kang, Sei-Kwon;Kim, Kyoung-Joo;Bae, Hoon-Sik;Suh, Tae-Suk
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.54-61
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    • 2007
  • [ $\underline{Purpose}$ ]: The purpose of this study is to develop a practical method for determining accurate marker positions for prostate cancer radiotherapy using CT images and kV x-ray images obtained from the use of the on- board imager (OBI). $\underline{Materials\;and\;Methods}$: Three gold seed markers were implanted into the reference position inside a prostate gland by a urologist. Multiple digital image processing techniques were used to determine seed marker position and the center-of-mass (COM) technique was employed to determine a representative reference seed marker position. A setup discrepancy can be estimated by comparing a computed $COM_{OBI}$ with the reference $COM_{CT}$. A proposed algorithm was applied to a seed phantom and to four prostate cancer patients with seed implants treated in our clinic. $\underline{Results}$: In the phantom study, the calculated $COM_{CT}$ and $COM_{OBI}$ agreed with $COM_{actual}$ within a millimeter. The algorithm also could localize each seed marker correctly and calculated $COM_{CT}$ and $COM_{OBI}$ for all CT and kV x-ray image sets, respectively. Discrepancies of setup errors between 2D-2D matching results using the OBI application and results using the proposed algorithm were less than one millimeter for each axis. The setup error of each patient was in the range of $0.1{\pm}2.7{\sim}1.8{\pm}6.6\;mm$ in the AP direction, $0.8{\pm}1.6{\sim}2.0{\pm}2.7\;mm$ in the SI direction and $-0.9{\pm}1.5{\sim}2.8{\pm}3.0\;mm$ in the lateral direction, even though the setup error was quite patient dependent. $\underline{Conclusion}$: As it took less than 10 seconds to evaluate a setup discrepancy, it can be helpful to reduce the setup correction time while minimizing subjective factors that may be user dependent. However, the on-line correction process should be integrated into the treatment machine control system for a more reliable procedure.

Development of Correction Formulas for KMA AAOS Soil Moisture Observation Data (기상청 농업기상관측망 토양수분 관측자료 보정식 개발)

  • Choi, Sung-Won;Park, Juhan;Kang, Minseok;Kim, Jongho;Sohn, Seungwon;Cho, Sungsik;Chun, Hyenchung;Jung, Ki-Yuol
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.13-34
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    • 2022
  • Soil moisture data have been collected at 11 agrometeorological stations operated by The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). This study aimed to verify the accuracy of soil moisture data of KMA and develop a correction formula to be applied to improve their quality. The soil of the observation field was sampled to analyze its physical properties that affect soil water content. Soil texture was classified to be sandy loam and loamy sand at most sites. The bulk density of the soil samples was about 1.5 g/cm3 on average. The content of silt and clay was also closely related to bulk density and water holding capacity. The EnviroSCAN model, which was used as a reference sensor, was calibrated using the self-manufactured "reference soil moisture observation system". Comparison between the calibrated reference sensor and the field sensor of KMA was conducted at least three times at each of the 11 sites. Overall, the trend of fluctuations over time in the measured values of the two sensors appeared similar. Still, there were sites where the latter had relatively lower soil moisture values than the former. A linear correction formula was derived for each site and depth using the range and average of the observed data for the given period. This correction formula resulted in an improvement in agreement between sensor values at the Suwon site. In addition, the detailed approach was developed to estimate the correction value for the period in which a correction formula was not calculated. In summary, the correction of soil moisture data at a regular time interval, e.g., twice a year, would be recommended for all observation sites to improve the quality of soil moisture observation data.

A Time Series Graph based Convolutional Neural Network Model for Effective Input Variable Pattern Learning : Application to the Prediction of Stock Market (효과적인 입력변수 패턴 학습을 위한 시계열 그래프 기반 합성곱 신경망 모형: 주식시장 예측에의 응용)

  • Lee, Mo-Se;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.167-181
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    • 2018
  • Over the past decade, deep learning has been in spotlight among various machine learning algorithms. In particular, CNN(Convolutional Neural Network), which is known as the effective solution for recognizing and classifying images or voices, has been popularly applied to classification and prediction problems. In this study, we investigate the way to apply CNN in business problem solving. Specifically, this study propose to apply CNN to stock market prediction, one of the most challenging tasks in the machine learning research. As mentioned, CNN has strength in interpreting images. Thus, the model proposed in this study adopts CNN as the binary classifier that predicts stock market direction (upward or downward) by using time series graphs as its inputs. That is, our proposal is to build a machine learning algorithm that mimics an experts called 'technical analysts' who examine the graph of past price movement, and predict future financial price movements. Our proposed model named 'CNN-FG(Convolutional Neural Network using Fluctuation Graph)' consists of five steps. In the first step, it divides the dataset into the intervals of 5 days. And then, it creates time series graphs for the divided dataset in step 2. The size of the image in which the graph is drawn is $40(pixels){\times}40(pixels)$, and the graph of each independent variable was drawn using different colors. In step 3, the model converts the images into the matrices. Each image is converted into the combination of three matrices in order to express the value of the color using R(red), G(green), and B(blue) scale. In the next step, it splits the dataset of the graph images into training and validation datasets. We used 80% of the total dataset as the training dataset, and the remaining 20% as the validation dataset. And then, CNN classifiers are trained using the images of training dataset in the final step. Regarding the parameters of CNN-FG, we adopted two convolution filters ($5{\times}5{\times}6$ and $5{\times}5{\times}9$) in the convolution layer. In the pooling layer, $2{\times}2$ max pooling filter was used. The numbers of the nodes in two hidden layers were set to, respectively, 900 and 32, and the number of the nodes in the output layer was set to 2(one is for the prediction of upward trend, and the other one is for downward trend). Activation functions for the convolution layer and the hidden layer were set to ReLU(Rectified Linear Unit), and one for the output layer set to Softmax function. To validate our model - CNN-FG, we applied it to the prediction of KOSPI200 for 2,026 days in eight years (from 2009 to 2016). To match the proportions of the two groups in the independent variable (i.e. tomorrow's stock market movement), we selected 1,950 samples by applying random sampling. Finally, we built the training dataset using 80% of the total dataset (1,560 samples), and the validation dataset using 20% (390 samples). The dependent variables of the experimental dataset included twelve technical indicators popularly been used in the previous studies. They include Stochastic %K, Stochastic %D, Momentum, ROC(rate of change), LW %R(Larry William's %R), A/D oscillator(accumulation/distribution oscillator), OSCP(price oscillator), CCI(commodity channel index), and so on. To confirm the superiority of CNN-FG, we compared its prediction accuracy with the ones of other classification models. Experimental results showed that CNN-FG outperforms LOGIT(logistic regression), ANN(artificial neural network), and SVM(support vector machine) with the statistical significance. These empirical results imply that converting time series business data into graphs and building CNN-based classification models using these graphs can be effective from the perspective of prediction accuracy. Thus, this paper sheds a light on how to apply deep learning techniques to the domain of business problem solving.