• 제목/요약/키워드: 파급효과 분석

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Empirical Analysis on Bitcoin Price Change by Consumer, Industry and Macro-Economy Variables (비트코인 가격 변화에 관한 실증분석: 소비자, 산업, 그리고 거시변수를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Junsik;Kim, Keon-Woo;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.195-220
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    • 2018
  • In this study, we conducted an empirical analysis of the factors that affect the change of Bitcoin Closing Price. Previous studies have focused on the security of the block chain system, the economic ripple effects caused by the cryptocurrency, legal implications and the acceptance to consumer about cryptocurrency. In various area, cryptocurrency was studied and many researcher and people including government, regardless of country, try to utilize cryptocurrency and applicate to its technology. Despite of rapid and dramatic change of cryptocurrencies' price and growth of its effects, empirical study of the factors affecting the price change of cryptocurrency was lack. There were only a few limited studies, business reports and short working paper. Therefore, it is necessary to determine what factors effect on the change of closing Bitcoin price. For analysis, hypotheses were constructed from three dimensions of consumer, industry, and macroeconomics for analysis, and time series data were collected for variables of each dimension. Consumer variables consist of search traffic of Bitcoin, search traffic of bitcoin ban, search traffic of ransomware and search traffic of war. Industry variables were composed GPU vendors' stock price and memory vendors' stock price. Macro-economy variables were contemplated such as U.S. dollar index futures, FOMC policy interest rates, WTI crude oil price. Using above variables, we did times series regression analysis to find relationship between those variables and change of Bitcoin Closing Price. Before the regression analysis to confirm the relationship between change of Bitcoin Closing Price and the other variables, we performed the Unit-root test to verifying the stationary of time series data to avoid spurious regression. Then, using a stationary data, we did the regression analysis. As a result of the analysis, we found that the change of Bitcoin Closing Price has negative effects with search traffic of 'Bitcoin Ban' and US dollar index futures, while change of GPU vendors' stock price and change of WTI crude oil price showed positive effects. In case of 'Bitcoin Ban', it is directly determining the maintenance or abolition of Bitcoin trade, that's why consumer reacted sensitively and effected on change of Bitcoin Closing Price. GPU is raw material of Bitcoin mining. Generally, increasing of companies' stock price means the growth of the sales of those companies' products and services. GPU's demands increases are indirectly reflected to the GPU vendors' stock price. Making an interpretation, a rise in prices of GPU has put a crimp on the mining of Bitcoin. Consequently, GPU vendors' stock price effects on change of Bitcoin Closing Price. And we confirmed U.S. dollar index futures moved in the opposite direction with change of Bitcoin Closing Price. It moved like Gold. Gold was considered as a safe asset to consumers and it means consumer think that Bitcoin is a safe asset. On the other hand, WTI oil price went Bitcoin Closing Price's way. It implies that Bitcoin are regarded to investment asset like raw materials market's product. The variables that were not significant in the analysis were search traffic of bitcoin, search traffic of ransomware, search traffic of war, memory vendor's stock price, FOMC policy interest rates. In search traffic of bitcoin, we judged that interest in Bitcoin did not lead to purchase of Bitcoin. It means search traffic of Bitcoin didn't reflect all of Bitcoin's demand. So, it implies there are some factors that regulate and mediate the Bitcoin purchase. In search traffic of ransomware, it is hard to say concern of ransomware determined the whole Bitcoin demand. Because only a few people damaged by ransomware and the percentage of hackers requiring Bitcoins was low. Also, its information security problem is events not continuous issues. Search traffic of war was not significant. Like stock market, generally it has negative in relation to war, but exceptional case like Gulf war, it moves stakeholders' profits and environment. We think that this is the same case. In memory vendor stock price, this is because memory vendors' flagship products were not VRAM which is essential for Bitcoin supply. In FOMC policy interest rates, when the interest rate is low, the surplus capital is invested in securities such as stocks. But Bitcoin' price fluctuation was large so it is not recognized as an attractive commodity to the consumers. In addition, unlike the stock market, Bitcoin doesn't have any safety policy such as Circuit breakers and Sidecar. Through this study, we verified what factors effect on change of Bitcoin Closing Price, and interpreted why such change happened. In addition, establishing the characteristics of Bitcoin as a safe asset and investment asset, we provide a guide how consumer, financial institution and government organization approach to the cryptocurrency. Moreover, corroborating the factors affecting change of Bitcoin Closing Price, researcher will get some clue and qualification which factors have to be considered in hereafter cryptocurrency study.

Adoption and Limits of Sustainable Coffee Certification Program in Vietnam: A Case Study of Vinacafe (베트남의 지속 가능한 커피 인증 프로그램의 도입과 한계: 비나카페를 사례로)

  • Ji, Hochul;Lee, Sung-Cheol
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.503-521
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    • 2017
  • Demands in a sustainable coffee certification program have increased steadily in the global coffee market. Along with this trend, recently the introduction of sustainable coffee certification programs in Vietnam has increased significantly. However, Vietnam's the coffee certification programs led by a single state-owned company, which is called Vinacafe, shows some differentiations from other sustainable coffee programs certified in other countries. The structure of exclusive decision-making in Vinacafe has been interfered with economic impacts in accordance with the introduction of sustainable coffee certification programs in Vietnam. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to identify changes in and limits of the value chain of the coffee industry with the introduction of Vietnam's sustainable coffee certification program by investigating the case of Vinacafe. To this end, the research has attempted 1) to concern with the role of Vinacafe in the process of growth in the coffee industry in central highland of Vietnam, 2) to analyze changes stemmed from the introduction of Vinacafe's sustainable coffee certification programs, and 3) to examine the limits to the introduction of sustainable coffee certification programs in Vietnam. As a result, it found out that Vinacafe subsidiaries shifted the losses resulted in the payment of additional environmental costs to produce sustainable certification coffee onto coffee farmers depended on Vinacafe subsidiaries, because the price of premium emerged from supports for certificated coffee production has not been guaranteed by Vinacafe mother firm.

Family-friendly Management Outcomes and the Effect of Ongoing Support: A Focus on the Organizational and Social Outcomes of Family-friendly Certified Firms (가족친화인증기업(관)의 가족친화경영 성과 및 사후지원 효과 - 기업성과와 사회적 성과를 중심으로 -)

  • Rhee, Seung-Yoon;Lee, Yu Ri
    • Journal of Family Resource Management and Policy Review
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.17-30
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study was to examine the effectiveness of family-friendly management in 501 family-friendly certified firms and to analyze organizational and social outcomes outlined by the firms. In addition, this study aimed to discover ways to promote family-friendly management by investigating the effects of ongoing support to certified firms, including family-friendly consulting and workplace training. The results showed that certified firms administer family-friendly workplace policies at a satisfactory level, while their management of policy indices and outcomes were not effective. The finding suggests that family-friendly management indices need to be aligned with firms' substantial outcomes. An improved organizational image and trust were major organizational outcomes of family-friendly management, and an enhanced CEO perception and a culture centered on gender-equality were significant social outcomes. These outcomes need to be promoted to attract organizations to engage in family-friendly management. The finding further implies the important roles of organizations in cultivating family-friendly environments in society. Finally, the certified firms with ongoing consulting and training support exhibited higher levels of family-friendly management and organizational and social outcomes. This study sheds light on the importance of long-term, systematic efforts by organizations in fostering family-friendly management and achieving organizational and social outcomes.

A Study on Public Interest-based Technology Valuation Models in Water Resources Field (수자원 분야 공익형 기술가치평가 시스템에 대한 연구)

  • Ryu, Seung-Mi;Sung, Tae-Eung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.177-198
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    • 2018
  • Recently, as economic property it has become necessary to acquire and utilize the framework for water resource measurement and performance management as the property of water resources changes to hold "public property". To date, the evaluation of water technology has been carried out by feasibility study analysis or technology assessment based on net present value (NPV) or benefit-to-cost (B/C) effect, however it is not yet systemized in terms of valuation models to objectively assess an economic value of technology-based business to receive diffusion and feedback of research outcomes. Therefore, K-water (known as a government-supported public company in Korea) company feels the necessity to establish a technology valuation framework suitable for technical characteristics of water resources fields in charge and verify an exemplified case applied to the technology. The K-water evaluation technology applied to this study, as a public interest goods, can be used as a tool to measure the value and achievement contributed to society and to manage them. Therefore, by calculating the value in which the subject technology contributed to the entire society as a public resource, we make use of it as a basis information for the advertising medium of performance on the influence effect of the benefits or the necessity of cost input, and then secure the legitimacy for large-scale R&D cost input in terms of the characteristics of public technology. Hence, K-water company, one of the public corporation in Korea which deals with public goods of 'water resources', will be able to establish a commercialization strategy for business operation and prepare for a basis for the performance calculation of input R&D cost. In this study, K-water has developed a web-based technology valuation model for public interest type water resources based on the technology evaluation system that is suitable for the characteristics of a technology in water resources fields. In particular, by utilizing the evaluation methodology of the Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST) in Japan to match the expense items to the expense accounts based on the related benefit items, we proposed the so-called 'K-water's proprietary model' which involves the 'cost-benefit' approach and the FCF (Free Cash Flow), and ultimately led to build a pipeline on the K-water research performance management system and then verify the practical case of a technology related to "desalination". We analyze the embedded design logic and evaluation process of web-based valuation system that reflects characteristics of water resources technology, reference information and database(D/B)-associated logic for each model to calculate public interest-based and profit-based technology values in technology integrated management system. We review the hybrid evaluation module that reflects the quantitative index of the qualitative evaluation indices reflecting the unique characteristics of water resources and the visualized user-interface (UI) of the actual web-based evaluation, which both are appended for calculating the business value based on financial data to the existing web-based technology valuation systems in other fields. K-water's technology valuation model is evaluated by distinguishing between public-interest type and profitable-type water technology. First, evaluation modules in profit-type technology valuation model are designed based on 'profitability of technology'. For example, the technology inventory K-water holds has a number of profit-oriented technologies such as water treatment membranes. On the other hand, the public interest-type technology valuation is designed to evaluate the public-interest oriented technology such as the dam, which reflects the characteristics of public benefits and costs. In order to examine the appropriateness of the cost-benefit based public utility valuation model (i.e. K-water specific technology valuation model) presented in this study, we applied to practical cases from calculation of benefit-to-cost analysis on water resource technology with 20 years of lifetime. In future we will additionally conduct verifying the K-water public utility-based valuation model by each business model which reflects various business environmental characteristics.

A Study on Oil Price Risk Affecting the Korean Stock Market (한국주식시장에 파급되는 국제유가의 위험에 관한 연구)

  • Seo, Ji-Yong
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.75-106
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    • 2007
  • In this study, it is analyzed whether oil price plays a major role in the pricing return on Koran stock market and examined why the covariance risk between oil and return on stock is different in each industry. Firstly, this study explores whether the expected rate of return on stock is pricing due to global oil price factors as a function of risk premium by using a two-factor APT. Also, it is examined whether spill-over effects of oil price volatility affect the beta risk to oil price. Considering the asymmetry of oil price volatility, we use the GJR model. As a result, it shows that oil price is an independent pricing factor and oil price volatility transmits to stock return in only electricity and electrical equipment. Secondly, the two step-analyzing process is introduced to find why the covariance between oil price factor and stock return is different in each industry. The first step is to study whether beta risk exists in each industry by using two proxy variables like size and liquidity as control variables. The second step is to grasp the systematic relationship between the difference of liquidity and size and beta to oil price factor by using the panel-data model which can be analyzed efficiently using the cross-sectional data formed with time series. Through the analysis, we can argue that oil price factor is an independent pricing factor in only electricity and electrical equipment having the greatest market capitalization, and know that beta risk to oil price factor is a proxy of size in the other industries. According to the result of panel-data model, it is argued that the beta to oil price factor augments when market capitalization increases and this fact supports the first assertion. In conclusion, the expected rate of return of electricity and electrical equipment works as a function of risk premium to market portfolio and oil price, and the reason to make beta risk power differentiated in each industry attributes to the size.

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An exploratory study on Social Network Services in the context of Web 2.0 period (웹 2.0 시대의 SNS(Social Network Service)에 관한 고찰)

  • Lee, Seok-Yong;Jung, Lee-Sang
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.143-167
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    • 2010
  • Diverse research topics relating to Social Network Services (SNS) such as, social affective factors in relationships among internet users, social capital value of SNS, comparing attributes why users are intending to participate in SNS, user's lifestyle and their preferences, and the exploratory seeking potential of SNS as a social capital need to be focused on. However, these researches that have been undertaken only consider facts at a particular period of the changing computing environment. In accordance with this indispensability, the integrated view on what technical, social and business characteristics and attributes need to be acknowledged. The purpose of this study is to analyze the evolving attributes and characteristics of SNS from Web 1.0 to Mobile web 2.0 through the Web 2.0 and Mobile 1.0 period. Based on the relevant literature, the attributes that drive the changing technological, social and business aspects of SNS have been developed and analyzed. This exploratory study analyzed major attributes and relationships between SNS and users by changing the paradigms which represented each period. It classified and chronicled each period by representing paradigms and deducted the attributes by considering three aspects such as technological, social and business administration. The major findings of this study are, firstly, the web based computing environment has been changed into the platform attribute for users in the aspect of technology. Users can only read, listen and view information through the web site in the early stages, but now it is possible that users can create, modify and distribute all kinds of information. Secondly, the few knowledge producers of web services have been changed into a collective intelligence by groups of people in the aspect of society. Information authority has been distributed and there is no limit to its spread. Many businesses recognized the potential of the SNS and they are considering how to utilize these advantages toward channel of promotion and marketing. Thirdly, the conventional marketing channel has been changed into oral transmission by using SNS. The market of innovative mobile technology such as smart phones, which provide convenience and access-ability toward customers, has been enlarged. New opportunities to build friendly relationship between business and customers as a new marketing chance have been created. Finally, the role of the consumer has been changed into the leading role of a prosumer. Users can create, modify and distribute information, and are performing the dual role of customer and producer.

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A study on the liquor package design of international competitive advantage - Focused on Soju and Sake - (국제 경쟁력을 위한 술 포장디자인 연구 - 국내소주 및 일본 Sake 중심으로 -)

  • 장욱선
    • Archives of design research
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.151-160
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    • 2003
  • Packages have been used for a wide variety of purposes, for protection, for display, for transportation of goods, or for keeping personal belongings. According to the demands of society and the times, liquor packages have been specialized and have appeared in almost every shape and size without restriction to cine particular type of material. In spite of its rapid development and wide application in our society, liquor package design has rarely been considered as a subject of comprehensive study. Majoring in package design, I have become especially interested in the area of liquor package design. I would like to explore liquor package design from several aspects. With the advent of new market and the rise of a new consumer society, advertising and mass media have expanded rapidly. While convenience of use is not a major issue, serving size certainly are quality, appeal of heritage and health concerns. Heritage is a major consumer appeal in Whisky, Beer, Wine and spirits. Designers have drawn heavily on the tradition of alcoholic products, have used type and graphics to create the illusion of heritage for new products. A sidelight to the heritage aspect of spirits package is the evolution of outer boxes for international liquors. International liquors package design illustrated the past and current themes. The design is contemporary and spare. Colored panels correlated to the liquor flavor used on clean white, black, gold boxes. While this research does not deny the impact of structural innovation and convenience package design , it does deny the existence of a graphic plateau. It is assumed therefore, that development in technology can facilitate communication between East and West. This can be accomplished because as containers of products are used in social setting, their form will gradually apply strong influence to the need for economical, easily handled, easily utilized packaging. Typically, ethnic package designs are those packages containing products which are prepared and marketed to a category of people who are prepared and marketed to a culture traits. They are liquor products sold in the metropolitan New York area which are marketed specially to Asians, Hispanics, or Eurpean population. These cultural groups share numerous traits including religion, language, dietary habits and traditional drinking styles. Therefore, the products which are familiar or common in their native countries are often imported or marketed there to serve them. These packages and products are frequently found on the shelves of supermarkets in predominantly ethnic areas. That is Korea, Japan if packaging is correctly design it would appeal to the American market. My research is that oriental beverage -Soju is good example of this precept. Assumedly, there must be a degree of subjectivity since it is a mean in which the consumers can relate to its advertising. This degree to relate and identify is the degree to which the package will be remembered and purchased. Subjectivity is intimately related to purchases since there is no such thing as a rational purchase in a society that operates on mass consumption. It is essential that packages become more personal human, entertaining, and more like advertising in order to maximize merchandising potential.

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Local Autonomy, National Economy and Local Public Finance (지방자치(地方自治)와 국민경제(國民經濟) 및 지방재정(地方財政))

  • Lee, Kye-sik
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.41-67
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    • 1991
  • Local autonomy of Korea's lower-level local council has been reinstated following elections last March for the first time in thirty years. Last June, we had elections for the upper-level local council. Mayors, governors, and administrative chiefs of cities, provinces and other local government bodies are slated for elections in the first half of next year. The impacts of local autonomy are taking effect in not only the political sphere, but also the administrative and economic spheres. In fact, it seems that some modification of all economic policy making and administration is inevitable. Since the initiation of local autonomy, in order to make the economy work more efficiently, it has become quite important to examine the impact of local autonomy on the national economy. The areas of local autonomy include independent legislative power, administrative power, organizational power, and most important of all, the independent public financial power of the local governments. The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of local autonomy on the national economy and ways of enhancing the role of local public finance to facilitate settlement and development of the local autonomy system. Local autonomy will contribute to the continuous growth of our economy, allow balanced development, and generate greater efficiency. However, local autonomy can also incur economic costs causing at times short-term price instability, inefficient resource allocation, through tax competition and tax exporting, and insolvency of local government due to abusive fiscal operation. To reduce these side effects, different alternatives must be considered. Local autonomy systems generally provide more efficient resource allocation than centralization. But in the model used in Chapter 3 of this paper, the relative efficiencies of both local autonomy and centralization are determined by comparing the elasticity of substitution between national public goods and local public goods. If the elasticity of substitution is bigger than one, centralization provides a more efficient resource allocation. The development of local autonomy could be attained through democratization of the local public finance system including the following three propositions. I) The independence of public financial power of local governments should be established over central government. Furthermore, a democratically operated scheme of intergovernmental fiscal coordination is especially necessary. 2) In the operation of local finance, direct democracy is needed to induce the voluntary participation of local residents. The residents can take part in planning both the local budget and the development of the community. To attain this goal, all the results of local finance operations should be made public. 3) Among economic ill-effects of the local autonomy system, the most serious one is the possibility of insolvency of local governments. Therefore, measures to limit abusive spending by the local governments should be introduced, such as the fiscal restraints system adopted in the United States.

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Multi-Category Sentiment Analysis for Social Opinion Related to Artificial Intelligence on Social Media (소셜 미디어 상에서의 인공지능 관련 사회적 여론에 대한 다 범주 감성 분석)

  • Lee, Sang Won;Choi, Chang Wook;Kim, Dong Sung;Yeo, Woon Young;Kim, Jong Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.51-66
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    • 2018
  • As AI (Artificial Intelligence) technologies have been swiftly evolved, a lot of products and services are under development in various fields for better users' experience. On this technology advance, negative effects of AI technologies also have been discussed actively while there exists positive expectation on them at the same time. For instance, many social issues such as trolley dilemma and system security issues are being debated, whereas autonomous vehicles based on artificial intelligence have had attention in terms of stability increase. Therefore, it needs to check and analyse major social issues on artificial intelligence for their development and societal acceptance. In this paper, multi-categorical sentiment analysis is conducted over online public opinion on artificial intelligence after identifying the trending topics related to artificial intelligence for two years from January 2016 to December 2017, which include the event, match between Lee Sedol and AlphaGo. Using the largest web portal in South Korea, online news, news headlines and news comments were crawled. Considering the importance of trending topics, online public opinion was analysed into seven multiple sentimental categories comprised of anger, dislike, fear, happiness, neutrality, sadness, and surprise by topics, not only two simple positive or negative sentiment. As a result, it was found that the top sentiment is "happiness" in most events and yet sentiments on each keyword are different. In addition, when the research period was divided into four periods, the first half of 2016, the second half of the year, the first half of 2017, and the second half of the year, it is confirmed that the sentiment of 'anger' decreases as goes by time. Based on the results of this analysis, it is possible to grasp various topics and trends currently discussed on artificial intelligence, and it can be used to prepare countermeasures. We hope that we can improve to measure public opinion more precisely in the future by integrating empathy level of news comments.

Educational Implications about Online Debates on a Socio-Scientific Issue from a Postmodernist Perspective: Focus on the Mad Cow Disease (포스트모더니즘의 관점에서 본 과학 관련 사회적 쟁점에 대한 온라인 토론의 과학교육적 함의: 광우병 사례를 중심으로)

  • Jho, Hun-Koog;Song, Jin-Woong
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.30 no.8
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    • pp.933-952
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    • 2010
  • This study aims to characterize debate on a socio-scientific issue in the Internet and to provide implications from a postmodernist perspective. This study concentrates on disentanglement of the complex relationship among society, economy, politics and science in an issue and characterization of the given text centering on its originality, the relationship between writer and reader, and the purpose of utterance. Sixty-six most read articles on a web message board were chosen and analyzed as a typical case of a socio-scientific issue in the internet. In them, five scientific disputes were identified: the cause of mad cow disease (MCD), specified risk material and the incubation period, the cause of new variant Creutzfeld-Jakob disease (vCJD), vulnerability of vCJD and the relation of Alzheimer and vCJD in American patients. Each argument is intertwined with social, economic and political problems such as its impact on the domestic beef market, feeding environment of imported cattle and the retaliation against denial of importation. With regard to originality, it is found that the originality of an author is weakened but communal through repetitive quotation of 'Peom', cutting and pasting, and engagement of readers with their comments. Furthermore, in order to close the gap between writer and reader, identity and personal narrative of the writers are often introduced into their writing. In terms of purpose of utterance, these are intended to deliver one's feelings or facilitate human behavior rather than inform through verification of a principle.