• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.237-262
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• 2022

There has been a growing interest in IPOs (Initial Public Offerings) due to the profitable returns that IPO stocks can offer to investors. However, IPOs can be speculative investments that may involve substantial risk as well because shares tend to be volatile, and the supply of IPO shares is often highly limited. Therefore, it is crucially important that IPO investors are well informed of the issuing firms and the market before deciding whether to invest or not. Unlike institutional investors, individual investors are at a disadvantage since there are few opportunities for individuals to obtain information on the IPOs. In this regard, the purpose of this study is to provide individual investors with the information they may consider when making an IPO investment decision. This study presents a model that uses machine learning and text analysis to predict whether an IPO stock price would move up or down after the first 5 trading days. Our sample includes 691 Korean IPOs from June 2009 to December 2020. The input variables for the prediction are three tone variables created from IPO prospectuses and quantitative variables that are either firm-specific, issue-specific, or market-specific. The three prospectus tone variables indicate the percentage of positive, neutral, and negative sentences in a prospectus, respectively. We considered only the sentences in the Risk Factors section of a prospectus for the tone analysis in this study. All sentences were classified into 'positive', 'neutral', and 'negative' via text analysis using TF-IDF (Term Frequency - Inverse Document Frequency). Measuring the tone of each sentence was conducted by machine learning instead of a lexicon-based approach due to the lack of sentiment dictionaries suitable for Korean text analysis in the context of finance. For this reason, the training set was created by randomly selecting 10% of the sentences from each prospectus, and the sentence classification task on the training set was performed after reading each sentence in person. Then, based on the training set, a Support Vector Machine model was utilized to predict the tone of sentences in the test set. Finally, the machine learning model calculated the percentages of positive, neutral, and negative sentences in each prospectus. To predict the price movement of an IPO stock, four different machine learning techniques were applied: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and Artificial Neural Network. According to the results, models that use quantitative variables using technical analysis and prospectus tone variables together show higher accuracy than models that use only quantitative variables. More specifically, the prediction accuracy was improved by 1.45% points in the Random Forest model, 4.34% points in the Artificial Neural Network model, and 5.07% points in the Support Vector Machine model. After testing the performance of these machine learning techniques, the Artificial Neural Network model using both quantitative variables and prospectus tone variables was the model with the highest prediction accuracy rate, which was 61.59%. The results indicate that the tone of a prospectus is a significant factor in predicting the price movement of an IPO stock. In addition, the McNemar test was used to verify the statistically significant difference between the models. The model using only quantitative variables and the model using both the quantitative variables and the prospectus tone variables were compared, and it was confirmed that the predictive performance improved significantly at a 1% significance level.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.13 no.6
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• pp.49-62
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• 2018

The purpose of this study is to develop an assessment index for the selection of promising start-ups, which will enhance the efficiency of program that support start-ups. In order to develop assessment models for selecting start-ups, three major research steps were conducted. First, this study attempted to theoretically redefine the assessment index from the perspective of the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) through a literature review. Second, major assessment index were derived using Delphi technique for experts in start-up areas. Third, weights were derived by applying AHP technique to calculate the importance of each index. The results of this study are summarized as follows. First, this study attempted to apply the assessment model for selecting start-ups from the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) view through the previous study review. Second, the final major questions were derived with sufficient opinions collected and structured survey of leading start-up experts in areas related to research subjects and elicited the most representative questions. Third, the results of applying the weights of the main selected assessment index, commercialization viewpoint is the most priority, followed by market view, technology development viewpoint, and organizational capability viewpoint. In the middle section, th ability to make products in the commercialization viewpoint, market competitiveness in the market, product discrimination capacity in the technology development perspective, and the ability of the entrepreneur in the organizational capacity perspective were important. Overall important items were found to be in the order of the capabilities of entrepreneurs, market competitiveness, product fire capability, and product discrimination. The importance of small items was highest priority for comparative excellence of competing products, and the degree of marketability, capacity of entrepreneurship, ability to raise capital, desire for entrepreneurship, and passion were shown. The results of this study presented a conceptual alternative to the preceding study on the development of existing selection assessment indexes. And it provides meaningful and important implications as an attempt to develop more sophisticated indicators by overcoming the limitations of empirical research on only some of the evaluation metrics.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.103-122
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• 2018

This paper expands the results of previous studies indicating that manager's ability positively affects business performance to analyze whether the degree to which the role of manager's ability improves business performance appears differently according to the characteristics of enterprises. As for the characteristics of enterprises, whether enterprises correspond to enterprises with high levels of funding constraints or late movers in the market is considered. Enterprises with high levels of funding constraints greatly require managers' roles not only for efficient use of funds but also for smooth financing. Late movers require more judgments of professional managers to overcome insufficient resources held and low profitability. In the case of enterprises with corporate characteristics with high dependency on the manager, the business performance is expected to greatly vary with the ability of the manager. The empirical analysis was conducted with listed companies from 2010 to 2014, manager's ability was measured by first measuring the efficiency of the entire enterprise through data envelopment analysis (DEA) using the methodology of Demerjian et al.(2012) and removing enterprise characteristics factors thereafter. Business performance was measured by the return on industrial fixed assets. The results of the empirical analysis indicated that the degree to which manager's ability improves business performance was higher in managerial competence enhances managerial performance in enterprises with high levels of funding constraints and late movers. Business performance is considered to have been improved further in cases where manager's ability is high because investments were made more efficiently through smooth funding. In addition, in the case of late movers in relatively poor environments, business performance was improved further because high manager's ability induced efficient decision making. In this paper, we extend the precedent study that the manager's ability improves the management performance, and confirm that the manager's ability to improve the managerial performance can be different according to the situation of the company. In addition, it is meaningful to analyze empirically whether a company's managerial ability is more important. This paper expanded the results of previous studies indicating that manager's ability improves performance to identify that the degree to which manager's ability improves business performance may appear differently according to situations in which enterprises are placed. In addition, this paper is meaningful in that it empirically analyzed what enterprises require manager's ability more importantly.

• Asia Marketing Journal
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.27-48
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• 2011

The Chinese counterfeits has begun to gain great attention recently because of the drastic increase in its volume. The consumption of counterfeit harms to manufacturer who spend millions of dollars to create and develop new product. The counterfeits in Chinese can cause international dispute and lower national reputation. The purpose of this study were to examine if the buyers of counterfeits tend to care more about interpersonal relationship than non-buyers among Chinese. Data were gathered by surveying Chinese consumer living in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou metropolitan area using convenient sampling, and 480 questionnaires were used in the statistical analysis. In analyzing data, descriptive statistics, factor analysis, structural equation modeling with AMOS were conducted. The results of this study were follows, first, attitude toward counterfeits was classified into three factors such as interpersonal relationship, perception, and involvement. It is general belief that attitudes toward counterfeits were correlated with on brand attachment, however this study show that the buyers of counterfeits tended to purchase counterfeit goods as more alternatives of genuine(original) product than non-buyers. Perhaps, the buyers of counterfeits tended to have lower consumer ethics than non-buyers because they value counterfeit high. It is generally accepted that both a producer and a buyer violate the laws, but they are rather generous for buyer. The results of this study suggest consumers' attitude towards counterfeit need to be changed, following consumer education and strict law enforcement. Based on these results, global brand marketing strategies for luxury goods were suggested.