• Title/Summary/Keyword: 통계 모델링

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Statistical significance test of polynomial regression equation for Huff's quartile method of design rainfall (설계강우량의 Huff 4분위 방법 다항회귀식에 대한 유의성 검정)

  • Park, Jinhee;Lee, Jaejoon;Lee, Sungho
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.3
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    • pp.263-272
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    • 2018
  • For the design of hydraulic structures, the design flood discharge corresponding to a specific frequency is generally used by using the design storm calculated according to the rainfall-runoff relationship. In the past, empirical equations such as rational equations were used to calculate the peak flow rate. However, as the duration of rainfall is prolonged, the outflow patterns are different from the actual events, so the accuracy of the temporal distribution of the probability rainfall becomes important. In the present work, Huff's quartile method is used for the temporal distribution of rainfall, and the third quartile is generally used. The regression equation for Huff's quadratic curve applies a sixth order polynomial equation because of its high accuracy throughout the duration of rainfall. However, in statistical modeling, the regression equation needs to be concise in accordance with the principle of simplicity, and it is necessary to determine the regression coefficient based on the statistical significance level. Therefore, in this study, the statistical significance test for regression equation for temporal distribution of the Huff's quartile method, which is used as the temporal distribution method of design rainfall, is conducted for 69 rainfall observation stations under the jurisdiction of the Korea Meteorological Administration. It is statistically significant that the regression equation of the Huff's quartile method can be considered only up to the 4th order polynomial equation, as the regression coefficient is significant in most of the 69 rainfall observation stations.

A study on the Effect of Mentoring Skills and Mentoring Functions on Initial Start-up Performance and Satisfaction (멘토의 역량과 멘토링 기능이 창업의 초기성과만족도에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Bang, Hye-Min;Jeon, In-Oh
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.444-454
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    • 2015
  • This study reports on initial founder performance and satisfaction that is affected by mentoring skills and mentoring functions. Through the empirical analysis, seen the initial founder performance and satisfaction as a respective dependent variable, this study intends to provide efficient direction of the responsibility mentor and present a method that enhances the survival of the initial start-up founder. The frequency analysis was conducted to determine the general characteristics of the sample, by leveraging the statistical package SPSS 20.0 for Windows program, details of the items measuring tools present a statistical analysis of sample data, 120 people have gathered in the survey data for this factor analysis was performed with a correlation to classify each region was calculated to Cronbach's ${\alpha}$ factor to determine the reliability of the measurement tool, and tested the hypothesis using linear regression analysis for verification. Was found to play an important role to draw the founder and mentor mentoring skills and capabilities in early stage start-ups, and conclusions drawn from this process. In particular, modeling of the mentor with a sound mind and behavior brought the better performance and satisfaction of the initial start-up founder. If a mentor provides mentoring with more interests in career development and psychosocial functions of the mentoring functions, it is seen to be more efficient way to improve survival rate of initial start-up as well as increasing a founder's performance and satisfaction.

A Study on the Usage Pattern Based on Genres and Socio-demographic Characteristics in Online Games (사회통계학적, 장르적 분류에 따른 온라인 게임의 이용 특성에 관한 연구)

  • Ryu, Sung-Il;Park, Sun-Ju
    • Journal of Korea Game Society
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.61-71
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    • 2010
  • This study looks into the usage pattern in online games based on genres and socio-demographic characteristics. Compared to the prior studies that adopted survey as their main research method, this study has analyzed the actual data of game login records and adopted parametric modeling and mathematical approach. In terms of the socio-demographic characteristics, the following facts were confirmed: men > women by gender, students > white-collars > housewives > blue-collars > self-employed > jobless(etc.) by occupation, college graduates > K-12 students > high-school graduates > undergrads & grads by academic background, 3∼5 million > 1∼3 million > over 5 million > less than 1 million by income levels, and not married > married by marital status. In terms of genres, the population of the players is in the order of web board games, RPG, action/racing/shooting, and sports. The RPG game is confirmed to have a higher level of MCR (Max Concurrent User Ratio) than any other genres. On the other hand, the hypothesis on the difference in Repeated Use Ratio according to genres is rejected. This study has also confirmed that interactions exist between gender and age; genre and gender; genre and age among online game users, and conducted post-hoc analysis about those interactions.

Localizing Head and Shoulder Line Using Statistical Learning (통계학적 학습을 이용한 머리와 어깨선의 위치 찾기)

  • Kwon, Mu-Sik
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.32 no.2C
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    • pp.141-149
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    • 2007
  • Associating the shoulder line with head location of the human body is useful in verifying, localizing and tracking persons in an image. Since the head line and the shoulder line, what we call ${\Omega}$-shape, move together in a consistent way within a limited range of deformation, we can build a statistical shape model using Active Shape Model (ASM). However, when the conventional ASM is applied to ${\Omega}$-shape fitting, it is very sensitive to background edges and clutter because it relies only on the local edge or gradient. Even though appearance is a good alternative feature for matching the target object to image, it is difficult to learn the appearance of the ${\Omega}$-shape because of the significant difference between people's skin, hair and clothes, and because appearance does not remain the same throughout the entire video. Therefore, instead of teaming appearance or updating appearance as it changes, we model the discriminative appearance where each pixel is classified into head, torso and background classes, and update the classifier to obtain the appropriate discriminative appearance in the current frame. Accordingly, we make use of two features in fitting ${\Omega}$-shape, edge gradient which is used for localization, and discriminative appearance which contributes to stability of the tracker. The simulation results show that the proposed method is very robust to pose change, occlusion, and illumination change in tracking the head and shoulder line of people. Another advantage is that the proposed method operates in real time.

A Case Study on Stochastic Fracture Network Modeling for Rock Slopes of Busan-Ulsan Highway(Reach 5) (부산-울산 고속국도(5공구)에 위치한 암반사면의 추계론적 절리연결구조 모사에 대한 사례연구)

  • Heo, In-Sill;Um, Jeong-Gi;Kim, Yang-Phil;Kim, Kook-Han;Lee, Young-Kyun
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.16 no.4 s.50
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    • pp.337-349
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    • 2006
  • Seven hundred and fifty one fractures of the rhyolitic tuffaceous rock masses were mapped using 6 scanlines placed on rock slope exposures that were within 8.02 km of Busan-Ulsan highway. These data were analyzed to find the number of fracture sets that exist in the rock slopes and the probability distributions of orientation, spacing, trace length and fracture size in 3-D for each of the fracture sets. All the fracture set orientation distributions exhibit high variability. The Fisher distributions were found to be unsuitable to represent the statistical distribution of orientation for most of the fracture sets. The probability distributions, gamma, exponential and lognormal were found to be highly suitable to represent the distribution of spacing and semi-trace length of fracture sets. In obtain-ing these distributions, corrections were applied for sampling biases associated with spacing and trace length. The generated fracture system in 3-D was used to make predictions of fracture traces for each fracture set on 2-D win-dows. Developed stochastic 3-D fracture network for the rock mass was validated by comparing statistical proper-ties of the observed fracture traces on scanlines with the predicted fracture traces on the scanlines. This exercise fumed out to be successful.

A Study on the Improvement of the System to Reduce Damage on Ammonia Chemical Accident (암모니아 화학사고 피해를 줄이기 위한 제도개선 연구)

  • Lee, Joo Chan;Jeon, Byeong Han;Kim, Hyun Sub
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.306-313
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is suggested to improve upon current existing methods of ammonia chemical accident prevention and damage reduction. Method: Ammonia is one of the most common toxic substances that causes frequent chemical accidents. And it was selected as leakage materials according to statistics on chemical accident. Based on actual cases of chemical accidents, CARIS modeling was used to compare the damage impact range of Ammonia and HCl and Cl. Also, find out problems with the current systems. Result: As a result of find out the range of accident influence that spreads to the surroundings when an ammonia chemical accident, it was longer than the range of influence of hydrochloric acid and shorter than that of chlorine. In addition, it was found that when chemical accident by ammonia, hydrochloric acid, or chlorine, there are apartments and schools, which can have an effect. Conclusion: It is decided that it is necessary to determine whether or not chemical accident prevention management plans and statistical investigations are submitted for workplaces dealing with ammonia, and detailed guidelines and reviews are necessary. In addition, it is judged that it is necessary to establish a DB for ammonia handling plants, and it is considered that information sharing and joint inspection among related organizations should be pursued.

Modeling for Egg Price Prediction by Using Machine Learning (기계학습을 활용한 계란가격 예측 모델링)

  • Cho, Hohyun;Lee, Daekyeom;Chae, Yeonghun;Chang, Dongil
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.15-17
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    • 2022
  • In the aftermath of the avian influenza that occurred from the second half of 2020 to the beginning of 2021, 17.8 million laying hens were slaughtered. Although the government invested more than 100 billion won for egg imports as a measure to stabilize prices, the effort was not that easy. The sharp volatility of egg prices negatively affected both consumers and poultry farmers, so measures were needed to stabilize egg prices. To this end, the egg prices were successfully predicted in this study by using the analysis algorithm of a machine learning regression. For price prediction, a total of 8 independent variables, including monthly broiler chicken production statistics for 2012-2021 of the Korean Poultry Association and the slaughter performance of the national statistics portal (kosis), have been selected to be used. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), which indicates the difference between the predicted price and the actual price, is at the level of 103 (won), which can be interpreted as explaining the egg prices relatively well predicted. Accurate prediction of egg prices lead to flexible adjustment of egg production weeks for laying hens, which can help decision-making about stocking of laying hens. This result is expected to help secure egg price stability.

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Analyzing Changes in Consumers' Interest Areas Related to Skin under the Pandemic: Focusing on Structural Topic Modeling (팬데믹에 따른 소비자의 피부 관련 관심 영역 변화 분석: 구조적 토픽모델링을 중심으로)

  • Nakyung Kim;Jiwon Park;HyungBin Moon
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.173-192
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    • 2024
  • This study aims to understand the changes in the beauty industry due to the pandemic from the consumer's perspective based on consumers' opinions about their skin online before and after the pandemic. Furthermore, this study tries to derive strategies for companies and governments to support sustainable growth and innovation in the beauty industry. To this end, posts on social media from 2017 to 2022 that contained the keyword 'skin concerns' are collected, and after data preprocessing, 96,908 posts are used for the structural topic model. To examine whether consumers' interest areas related to skin change according to the pandemic situation, the analysis period is divided into 7 periods, and the variables that distinguish each stage are used as meta-variables for the structural topic model. As a result, it is found that consumers' interests can be divided into 22 topics, which can be categorized into four main categories: beauty manufacturing, beauty services, skin concerns, and other. The results of this study are expected to be utilized in construction of product development and marketing strategies of related companies and the establishment of economic support policies by the government in response to changes in demand in the beauty industry due to the pandemic.

Development of a SEAMCAT Based Interference Evaluation Tool with ITU-R P.526 (ITU-R P.526을 지원하는 SEAMCAT 기반 전파 간섭 평가 도구 개발)

  • Lim, Chang Heon;Kwon, Jong Man;Kim, Yong Hoon;Lee, Yang Won
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.37C no.9
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    • pp.791-801
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    • 2012
  • Currently, SEAMCAT has been widely used as a tool to evaluate the effects of interference among a variety of wireless communication systems. This supports various channel propagation models, all of which are based on some statistical models for the channel propagation and do not exploit any specific terrain characteristics. Thus it is not appropriate for assessing the effects of interference between wireless systems, given some specific terrain features. In order to overcome this limit in its use, it is necessary to extend the capability of SEAMCAT to support a channel propagation model which takes into account terrain informations. The ITU-R P.526 is a familiar channel propagation model which calculates the path loss considering the terrain features. In this paper, we present an enhanced version of SEAMCAT which supports the ITU-R P.526 and provide a few examples of interference evaluation using it.

Longitudinal Data Analysis for School-aged Adolescents' Obesity Rates across the States (미국 청소년의 비만에 관한 종단적 분석)

  • Kim, TaeEung;Kim, Jongho;Hwang, Sunhwan
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.16 no.8
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    • pp.743-755
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    • 2016
  • The objectives of this research is to examine: 1) how the rates of adolescents' BMI change over time in terms of the state level; and 2) development difference in the state level of BMI in terms of children's obesogenic behaviors from 1999 to 2011. Data were drawn from the 1999-2011 Youth Risk Behavior Survey in the United States (N=260, 293, grades 9-12, and 27 states). Ordinary least squares regression and hierarchical linear modeling were utilized to capture a longitudinal time effect of school-aged adolescents' obesity rates across the states, controlling for demographics and nutrition- and physical activity-related behaviors. The state's level of children's BMI percentile was significantly associated with longitudinal time. Longitudinal time effect across the states appears to play an important factor associated with children's decrease of BMI percentile. Therefore the states' implementation of physical activity and nutritional policies seems to be effective for preventing and reducing childhood obesity during last decade. More attention should focus on enforcing the policy and overcoming current barriers in order to minimize children's obesogenic factor.