• Title/Summary/Keyword: 통계추론

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Likelihood based inference for the ratio of parameters in two Maxwell distributions (두 개의 맥스웰분포의 모수비에 대한 우도함수 추론)

  • Kang, Sang-Gil;Lee, Jeong-Hee;Lee, Woo-Dong
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.89-98
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    • 2012
  • In this paper, the ratio of parameters in two independent Maxwell distributions is parameter of interest. We proposed test statistics, which converge to standard normal distribution, based on likelihood function. The exact distribution for testing the ratio is hard to obtain. We proposed the signed log-likelihood ratio statistic and the modified signed log-likelihood ratio statistic for testing the ratio. Through simulation, we show that the modified signed log-likelihood ratio statistic converges faster than signed log-likelihood ratio statistic to standard normal distribution. We compare two statistics in terms of type I error and power. We give an example using real data.

Differences in attributional bias and irrational gambling beliefs between gamblers and non-gamblers (귀인양식과 귀인편향, 비합리적 도박신념에서의 차이: 도박자와 비도박자의 비교)

  • Eun-A Park;Jonghan Yi
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.177-203
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    • 2015
  • The aims of this study were 1) to compare irrational gambling beliefs of gamblers and non-gamblers, 2) to investigate the role of cognitive error on winning probability thinking error, and 3) to examine the relationship between attributional bias and gambling behavior. A total of 248 subjects were recruited for this study. All subjects were classified into non-gamblers, social gamblers and pathological gamblers, and administered self-report questionnaires to measure irrational gambling beliefs, the probability inference error, the attriburional style, and the attributional bias. A pathological gambler group scored highest on irrational gambling beliefs, especially the overestimation of self-ability factor, and a social gambler group and a non-gambler group follow. All three groups scored higher on the magnification of gambling skills than the mean (4.0) of the scale. Pathological gamblers and social gamblers scored higher on the probability thinking error than non-gamblers. Pathological gamblers displayed higher external attribution, lower internal attribution in their daily life events and higher internal attribution in failure situation than social gamblers and non-gamblers. The results indicate that cognitive errors would be a factor that differentiates pathological gamblers from social gamblers and non-gamblers. In predicting gambling behaviors, overestimation of self-ability of irrational gambling beliefs, internal attribution in failure situation, external attribution in daily live event, and probability thinking error were identified as significant factors. It is concluded that a public education about common cognitive bias featured in gamblers might be important in prevention of pathological gambling behaviors.

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A Hybrid Approach Using Case-Based Reasoning and Fuzzy Logic for Corporate Bond Rating (퍼지집합이론과 사례기반추론을 활용한 채권등급예측모형의 구축)

  • Kim Hyun-jung;Shin Kyung-shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.91-109
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    • 2004
  • This study investigates the effectiveness of a hybrid approach using fuzzy sets that describe approximate phenomena of the real world. Compared to the other existing techniques, the approach handles inexact knowledge in common linguistic terms as human reasoning does it. Integration of fuzzy sets with case-based reasoning (CBR) is important in that it helps to develop a successful system far dealing with vague and incomplete knowledge which statistically uses membership value of fuzzy sets in CBR. The preliminary results show that the accuracy of the integrated fuzzy-CBR approach proposed for this study is higher that of conventional techniques. Our proposed approach is applied to corporate bond rating of Korean companies.

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The Use of the Geometer's Sketchpad in Eighth-Grade Students' Quadrilateral Learning (The Geometer's Sketchpad를 활용한 8학년 학생들의 사각형 학습)

  • Han, Hye-Sook
    • Journal of the Korean School Mathematics Society
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.513-541
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    • 2008
  • The purposes of the study were to investigate whether the use of the Geometer's Sketchpad(GSP) is more effective than the use of traditional tools such as ruler and protractor to enhance eighth- grade students' understanding of quadrilaterals and geometric reasoning ability and to examine how the use of the software affects on the development of students' understanding and reasoning ability. According to the results of the posttest, there was a significant difference in student achievement between students using GSP and students using ruler and protractor. Students using GSP significantly outperformed students using ruler and protractor on the posttest. Student interview data showed that the use of the GSP was more effective in developing students' geometric reasoning ability. Students using GSP achieved higher degrees of acquisition for van Hiele level 2 and 3 than students using ruler and protractor. Dynamic visual representations and hands-on experiences provided in GSP learning environment helped students approach quadrilateral concepts more conceptually and realize their pre-existing conceptual errors and re-conceptualize their mathematical ideas.

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Quantitative evaluation of radar reflectivity and rainfall intensity relationship parameters uncertainty using Bayesian inference technique (Bayesian 추론기법을 활용한 레이더 반사도-강우강도 관계식 매개변수의 불확실성 정량적 평가)

  • Kim, Tae-Jeong;Park, Moon-Hyeong;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.9
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    • pp.813-826
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    • 2018
  • Recently, weather radar system has been widely used for effectively monitoring near real-time weather conditions. The radar rainfall estimates are generally relies on the Z-R equation that is an indirect approximation of the empirical relationship. In this regards, the bias in the radar rainfall estimates can be affected by spatial-temporal variations in the radar profile. This study evaluates the uncertainty of the Z-R relationship while considering the rainfall types in the process of estimating the parameters of the Z-R equation in the context of stochastic approach. The radar rainfall estimates based on the Bayesian inference technique appears to be effective in terms of reduction in bias for a given season. The derived Z-R equation using Bayesian model enables us to better represent the hydrological process in the rainfall-runoff model and provide a more reliable forecast.

A study of Bayesian inference on auto insurance credibility application (자동차보험 신뢰도 적용에 대한 베이지안 추론 방식 연구)

  • Kim, Myung Joon;Kim, Yeong-Hwa
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.689-699
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    • 2013
  • This paper studies the partial credibility application method by assuming the empirical prior or noninformative prior informations in auto insurnace business where intensive rating segmentation is expanded because of premium competition. Expanding of rating factor segmetation brings the increase of pricing cells, as a result, the number of cells for partial credibility application will increase correspondingly. This study is trying to suggest more accurate estimation method by considering the Bayesian framework. By using empirically well-known or noninformative information, inducing the proper posterior distribution and applying the Bayes estimate which is minimizing the error loss into the credibility method, we will show the advantage of Bayesian inference by comparison with current approaches. The comparison is implemented with square root rule which is a widely accepted method in insurance business. The convergence level towarding to the true risk will be compared among various approaches. This study introduces the alternative way of redcuing the error to the auto insurance business fields in need of various methods because of more segmentations.

효소 관련 특허 분석

  • 유기찬;황인표
    • The Microorganisms and Industry
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.49-59
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    • 1994
  • 효소관련 각종 특허를 국가별, 산업적 응용면, 또는 효소기술상으로 분류하여 통계적으로 분석을 해 봄으로써 여러가지 현상을 발견 내지 추론해 볼 수 있다. 첫째, 연도별, 국가별 출원현황 및 경향을 알 수 있으며 둘째, 이러한 특허출원들이 산업적으로 어떤 분야에 적용 내지 적용가능한 지를 파악할 수 있고 셋째, 기술적으로도 어누 부문에 치중 내지 편중되어 출원이 이루어지고 있는 지를 알 수 있다. 그리고 보다 중요한 것은 이러한 여러 측면을 동시에 고찰해 봄으로써 효소특허출원 경향에 관한 통찰력의 배양을 통해 연구자가 연구개발의 흐름을 파악해 볼 수 있다는 것이다.

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NCW 체계하의 전투능력 평가 방안 연구

  • Jeong, Jong-Mun;Go, Dong-Cheol
    • Information and Communications Magazine
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.3-8
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    • 2009
  • 본 연구는 네트워크 중심전(NCW)에서 전투력에 영향을 미치는 요소들과 전투능력 평가방법에 관한 것이다. 전투능력에 영향을 미치는 기초변수로 상황인식, 환경적응, 물자보급, 정보유통 및 지휘통제를 설정하고 이러한 기초변수가 전투능력에 미치게 될 영향을 추론하였다. 설정된 기초변수를 전제하여 대응소요 시간을 기반으로 전투능력을 평가하는 방안을 제시하였다. 대응 신뢰성 및 대응 효율을 평가함으로써 전투능력을 정량화하는 것이 가능하며 정량화된 자료를 축적함으로써 통계적으로 전투능력과 기초변수와의 상관관계를 파악할 수 있으며 이러한 관계를 이해하는 것은 NCW 체계구축에 중요한 요소가 될 것이다.

Feasibility Analysis for Course Evaluation System through Simulation (모의실험을 통한 강의평가제의 타당성분석)

  • Kim, yong-tae;Kim, seong-yoon;Lee, sang-jun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Contents Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.389-390
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    • 2017
  • 대부분의 강의평가는 참여율을 높이기 위해 학생들이 성적확인 이전에 일괄적으로 평가하는 방식으로 강제성을 가지고 있다. 이에 본 연구는 전수조사로 진행되는 강의평가제의 문제점을 지적하면서 모의실험을 통한 표본 강의평가제를 제시하고 표본평균을 이용해 모평균을 추론하는 것이 통계적으로 의미 있다는 것을 확인하고자 한다.

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