• Title/Summary/Keyword: 토지이용 변화 예측

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Runoff Accuracy Comparison Between Distributed Model and Lumped Model Based on Observed Data (분포형 모형과 집중형 모형의 유출해석 정확도 비교)

  • Kang, Bo-Seong;Yang, Sung-Kee
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.430-430
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    • 2015
  • 기상이변에 따른 국지성 호우 및 태풍의 영향으로 돌발 홍수가 자주 발생하여 홍수피해가 증가하고 있다. 이와 같은 피해를 저감하기 위해서는 신속하고 정확한 강우의 예측과 홍수량 산정이 필요하며, 이를 위해 최근 강우의 실시간 변화를 관측하고 예측이 가능한 레이더 강우의 활용성이 증대되고 있다. 강우-유출 해석을 위한 수문 모형으로 집중형 수문모형과 분포형 수문모형이 있다. 집중형 수문모형(HEC-HMS)은 수리 수문학적 매개변수들을 반영하여 강우로 인한 유역의 지표면 유출을 모의하는 단일 사상 모형이며, 분포형 수문모형(Vflo)은 유역의 공간적 특성을 격자기반으로 반영하는 GIS를 기반으로 하고 있으며 레이더 강우와 연계한 물리적 기반의 유출모형으로 홍수량 예측 및 분석에 매우 효과적인 방법이다. 본 연구에서는 GIS를 이용하여 외도천 유역의 지형적 지리적 특성(DEM, 토지피복도, 토양도 등)을 분석하고 분포형 모형인 Vflo와 집중형 모형인 HEC-HMS를 활용하여 유출량을 모의하고, 첨두 유량, 첨두 발생 시간을 비교 분석하여 외도천 유역에 적합한 유출 모형을 확인하였다. 이와 같이 강우-유출 모형에 의해 분석된 결과는 향후 돌발홍수를 대비하기 위한 '단기 강우-유출 분석 시스템' 개발 시 중요한 기반이 될 것으로 기대된다.

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Prediction of Soil Erosion from Agricultural Uplands under Precipitation Change Scenarios (우리나라 강우량 변화 시나리오에 따른 밭토양의 토양 유실량 변화 예측)

  • Kim, Min-Kyeong;Hur, Seong-Oh;Kwon, Soon-Ik;Jung, Goo-Bok;Sonn, Yeon-Kyu;Ha, Sang-Keun;Lee, Deog-Bae
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.43 no.6
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    • pp.789-792
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    • 2010
  • Major impacts of climate change expert that soil erosion rate may increase during the $21^{st}$ century. This study was conducted to assess the potential impacts of climate change on soil erosion by water in Korea. The soil loss was estimated for regions with the potential risk of soil erosion on a national scale. For computation, Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) with rainfall and runoff erosivity factors (R), cover management factors (C), support practice factors (P) and revised USLE with soil erodibility factors (K) and topographic factors (LS) were used. RUSLE, the revised version of USLE, was modified for Korean conditions and re-evaluate to estimate the national-scale of soil loss based on the digital soil maps for Korea. The change of precipitation for 2010 to 2090s were predicted under A1B scenarios made by National Institute of Meteorological Research in Korea. Future soil loss was predicted based on a change of R factor. As results, the predicted precipitations were increased by 6.7% for 2010 to 2030s, 9.5% for 2040 to 2060s and 190% for 2070 to 2090s, respectively. The total soil loss from uplands in 2005 was estimated approximately $28{\times}10^6$ ton. Total soil losses were estimated as $31{\times}10^6$ ton in 2010 to 2030s, $31{\times}10^6$ ton in 2040 to 2060s and $33{\times}10^6$ ton in 2070 to 2090s, respectively. As precipitation increased by 17% in the end of $21^{st}$ century, the total soil loss was increased by 12.9%. Overall, these results emphasize the significance of precipitation. However, it should be noted that when precipitation becomes insignificant, the results may turn out to be complex due to the large interaction among plant biomass, runoff and erosion. This may cause increase or decrease the overall erosion.

Analysis of Risk Classification on the Urban Flood Damage in Changwon city (창원시 용도지역별 침수 피해에 따른 위험등급화 분석)

  • Park, Ki-Yong;Jeong, Jin-Ho;Jeon, Won-Sik
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.685-693
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    • 2017
  • This study aims to effectively respond to urban local rainstorms by classifying the risk against flood damage for each use district. The risk classification is based on sensitivity analysis of the socio-economic damage caused by local rainstorms in Changwon city, Korea by a Fuzzy model using data, such as the districts that provide institutional bases for land use, land prices, which estimate the property values, and floor area ratios, which measures the density and areas of flood damage. The analysis result indicated that flood damage in five districts of Changwon (Masan happo-gu, Masan Hoewon-gu, Sungsan-gu, Euichang-gu, and Jinhae-gu) is highest in the order of commercial areas, residential areas, industrial areas, and forests, which was attributed to high land price and floor area ratio of commercial areas. On the other hand, specific analysis in Masan Hoewon-gu and Sungsan-gu was different from the previous result, indicating that the risk against flood damage may vary according to the districts depending on their local conditions. The analysis from this study can be applied to future urban planning and be used as a guideline to estimate the potential flood damage. Overall, this study is meaningful in that it proposes an effective management of land use as a new resolution to mitigate of urban flood damage within a broader perspective of climate change and urbanization.

Application of Geographical Information System on Golf Course Design for Reduction of Environmental Impacts (지형정보시스템기법을 이용한 친환경적 골프코스 설계)

  • Joo, Young-Kyoo;Lee, Whal-Hee;Lee, Mu-Chun
    • Asian Journal of Turfgrass Science
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.93-105
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    • 2006
  • The construction of golf courses has had adverse effects on the natural landscape and delicate ecosystem of Korea. Efficiency in planning and design was necessary to minimize the environmental impact of the original construction. However, the ordinal design methods have limited the data processing by the massive scale of the project of golf course development. Conventional design methods did not have a proper tool for alternative plans on pre-estimation of landscape destruction or minimizing of the environmental impact. Therefore, advanced computerized techniques need to be adapted for golf course design to solve the problems concerning the environmental impacts. Geographic information system (GIS) was applied on the process of geographical data input and analysis through the final outputs. Simulation works by the total database management enable the pre-investigation of the design In view of an assessment of environmental impacts. It is also possible to evaluate plans easily and propose the alternatives properly. Precise quantity calculation of engineering works by computer system should be guaranteed scientific, economic, and environmentally-sound.

Proposal of Prediction Technique for Future Vegetation Information by Climate Change using Satellite Image (위성영상을 이용한 기후변화에 따른 미래 식생정보 예측 기법 제안)

  • Ha, Rim;Shin, Hyung-Jin;Kim, Seong-Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.58-69
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    • 2007
  • The vegetation area that occupies 76% in land surface of the earth can give a considerable impact on water resources, environment and ecological system by future climate change. The purpose of this study is to predict future vegetation cover information from NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) extracted from satellite images. Current vegetation information was prepared from monthly NDVI (March to November) extracted from NOAA AVHRR (1994 - 2004) and Terra MODIS (2000 - 2004) satellite images. The NDVI values of MODIS for 5 years were 20% higher than those of NOAA. The interrelation between NDVIs and monthly averaged climate factors (daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature, rainfall, sunshine hour, wind velocity, and relative humidity) for 5 river basins of South Korea showed that the monthly NDVIs had high relationship with monthly averaged temperature. By linear regression, the future NDVIs were estimated using the future mean temperature of CCCma CGCM2 A2 and B2 climate change scenario. The future vegetation information by NOAA NDVI showed little difference in peak value of NDVI, but the peak time was shifted from July to August and maintained high NDVIs to October while the present NDVI decrease from September. The future MODIS NDVIs showed about 5% increase comparing with the present NDVIs from July to August.

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An Analysis of Environmental Factors of Abandoned Paddy Wetlands as References and Changes in Land Cover Types in the Influence Area (묵논습지 환경요인 및 생태영향권 내 토지피복유형 변화 분석)

  • Park, MiOk;Kwon, SoonHyo;Back, SeungJun;Seo, JooYoung;Koo, BonHak
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.331-344
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    • 2022
  • This study analyzed the characteristics of the soil and hydrological environment of abandoned paddy wetlands examined the changes in land cover type in the ecological affect area, analyzed the environmental factors of abandoned paddy wetlands, and examined the changes in land cover type in the ecological impact area. The ecological environment characteristics of the reference abandoned paddy wetlands were investigated through literature research, environmental spatial information service, and preliminary exploration of the abandoned paddy wetlands, and the basic data for the restoration of abandoned paddy wetlands ware provided by examining the changes in land cover type in the ecological impact area for 40 years. Through this study, it will be possible to manage the rapidly increasing number of abandoned farmland to be converted into wetlands so that it can perform functions equivalent to or greater than that of natural wetlands. In particular, as we checked the clues that abandoned paddy wetlands could spread to surrounding ecological influences through land cover changes, the study sites are highly likely to be reference wetlands, and if the topography, soil, water circulation system, and carbon reduction performance are analyzed carefully, it will be possible to standardize the development process. In addition, through the change in land cover, clues were confirmed that the abandoned paddy wetlands could spread to the surrounding ecological affect areas. The land cover type in the ecological impact area, forests was mainly distributed, but generally decreased rapidly in the last 10-20 years, and forests were changing from coniferous forests to broad-leaved forests, mixed forests, or grassland. It has not yet been fully called to the wetland, and it is found that it has maintained the form of barren or grassland, and as can be seen in the case of natural wetlands after more than 30 years after abandoned, it is expected that the transition will gradually proceed to wetlands that are structurally and functionally similar to natural wetlands.

Comparison of physics-based and data-driven models for streamflow simulation of the Mekong river (메콩강 유출모의를 위한 물리적 및 데이터 기반 모형의 비교·분석)

  • Lee, Giha;Jung, Sungho;Lee, Daeeop
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.6
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    • pp.503-514
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    • 2018
  • In recent, the hydrological regime of the Mekong river is changing drastically due to climate change and haphazard watershed development including dam construction. Information of hydrologic feature like streamflow of the Mekong river are required for water disaster prevention and sustainable water resources development in the river sharing countries. In this study, runoff simulations at the Kratie station of the lower Mekong river are performed using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), a physics-based hydrologic model, and LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory), a data-driven deep learning algorithm. The SWAT model was set up based on globally-available database (topography: HydroSHED, landuse: GLCF-MODIS, soil: FAO-Soil map, rainfall: APHRODITE, etc) and then simulated daily discharge from 2003 to 2007. The LSTM was built using deep learning open-source library TensorFlow and the deep-layer neural networks of the LSTM were trained based merely on daily water level data of 10 upper stations of the Kratie during two periods: 2000~2002 and 2008~2014. Then, LSTM simulated daily discharge for 2003~2007 as in SWAT model. The simulation results show that Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of each model were calculated at 0.9(SWAT) and 0.99(LSTM), respectively. In order to simply simulate hydrological time series of ungauged large watersheds, data-driven model like the LSTM method is more applicable than the physics-based hydrological model having complexity due to various database pressure because it is able to memorize the preceding time series sequences and reflect them to prediction.

Health Impacts of Climate Change and Natural Disaster (기후변화와 자연재난의 건강영향)

  • Kim, Daeseon;Lee, Chulwoo;Vatukela, Jese
    • Journal of Appropriate Technology
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.118-125
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    • 2019
  • Climate change is one part of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). According to the Fifth Assessment Report by the Inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) published in 2014, global warming is caused by greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The most important GHG is carbon dioxide (CO2), which is released by the burning of fossil fuels and, to a lesser extent, by land use practices, followed by nitrous oxide and methane. IPCC predicts that global temperatures will rise 3.7℃ and sea level will rise 0.63 m by 2099 in the case of no strong restraint. According to the report, we can expect a massive species extinctions, changes in storm and drought cycles, altered ocean circulation, and redistribution of vegetation by global warming. However, climate changes, especially global warming, are the largest potential threat to human health and the source of a number of diseases globally. If climate changes are continued uncontrolled, human health will be adversely affected by the accelerating climate change and the natural disaster induced by climate change. It means we will face more serious conditions of injury, disease, and death related to natural disasters such as flood, drought, heat waves, malnutrition, more allergy, air pollution and climate change related infections related to morbidity and mortality. This review emphasizes on the relationship between global climate changes and human health and provides some suggestions for improvement.

인공위성 원격탐사에 의한 지구 수계환경 감시

  • 박경윤
    • Water for future
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.36-41
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    • 1991
  • 1960년대 초부터 미 국립항공우주국(NASA)에서 기상위성을 지구궤도에 올리면서 시작되고 우주개발 선도국들에 의해 수 없이 발사되어 지구상공을 선회하고 있는 각종 실험위성, 자원탐사위성들로부터 이전까지만해도 지엽적이고 단편적인으로 알려지던 지구환경현황들이 이제는 지구전체에 대한 시시각각의 정보로 확대되고 있다. 기상위성들에 장착된 Sensor들로는 구름과 기상현상의 분포는 물론이고 각 대양의 해수면 온도 분포들이 파악되고 있으며 식물지수에 의한 지상의 식물분포의 계절적 변화양상에서 열대림의 사막화 추세들까지도 분석된다. 특히 위성탐사에 의한 남극 오존홀 (Ozone Hole)의 확인은 최근악화 되고 있느 swlrnchs 환경문제에 대한 커다란 주의를 환기시켜 주었다. 대양의 Phytoplankton 분포가 계절에 따라 위성자료에 의해 분석되므로서 해양의 생산능력(Productivity)의 변화도 알게되고 있다. 해양수면의 높이를 측정했던 초단파(microwave)영역의 SAR 자료는 구름을 투과하여 지구표면을 전천후 Monitoring할 수 있는 다음 세대의 Sensor로 각광을 받고 있으며 앞으로 유럽과 일본, 카나다, 소련 등에서 이들 새로운 Sensor들이 탑재 될 자원탐사 위성(ERS)과 RADASAT 등의 위성이 계속해서 개발되고 있어 이들에 의한 지구환경상태 진단은 크게 각광받게 될 것이다. 그외에도 해면풍 운량, 총강우량 분포, 대기 투명도, 대기의 열수지등의 계절적 변화에 대한 인공위성자료 해석을 통하여 지구의 온난화nas제가 본격적으로 ud가되고 있다. 또한 자원탐사위성인 Landsat 과 SPOT 등의 위성에 의해서는 각대륙의 토지 이용도 변화, 토사의 이도, 지질도 작성, 입체도 제착등과 농산물수확량의 예측있어서 괄목할 만한 발전이 계속되고 있다. 더욱이 NASA와 일본, 유럽등에서 지구관측을 위해서 준비하고 있는 각종 지구관측위성(EOS)들이 실용화 될 2000년 대에는 일반 지구환경감시는 물론 수계환경 감시 체계구축에 획기적인 진전이 있을 것으로 기대된다.

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The Tendency Analysis of Albedo by Land Cover Over Northeast Asia Using MODIS 16-Day Composited Albedo data (MODIS 16-Day Albedo 자료를 이용한 동북아시아 지역의 토지피복 별 알베도 변화 분석)

  • Park, Eun-Bin;Han, Kyung-Soo;Lee, Chang-Suk;Pi, Kyung-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.501-508
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    • 2012
  • Albedo is known as a factor that directly impacts on the surface energy balance one of the elements of earth radiation balance. The change of albedo includes the change of soil moisture, vegetation, solar zenith angle, snow, and so on. In addition, it operates as a crucial path to understanding feedback mechanisms between radiation balance and its influence on climate and vegetation dynamics and therefore, observing the variation of albedo is a one of the essential procedures for anticipating climate change. In this study, we used MODIS 16-Day composited Albedo data from 2001 to 2011 years with the purpose of observing the change of albedo over Northeast Asia. According to the tendency of albedo for 11 years, albedo in the area of an active vegetation has increased in near-infrared (NIR) domain and decreased in visible (VIS) domain. On the basis of local changes in vegetation in 2002, the both area of the Gobi Desert and the Manchuria was enormously changed and chosen the research area and furthermore, the vegetation of both regions had deteriorated due to the change of the minimum value since 2010.