• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.158-169
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• 2019

A probabilistic model that can predict the residual useful lifetime of structure is formulated by using the gamma process which is one of the stochastic processes. The formulated stochastic model can take into account both the sampling uncertainty associated with damages measured up to now and the temporal uncertainty of cumulative damage over time. A method estimating several parameters of stochastic model is additionally proposed by introducing of the least square method and the method of moments, so that the age of a structure, the operational environment, and the evolution of damage with time can be considered. Some features related to the residual useful lifetime are firstly investigated into through the sensitivity analysis on parameters under a simple setting of single damage data measured at the current age. The stochastic model are then applied to the rubble-mound breakwater straightforwardly. The parameters of gamma process can be estimated for several experimental data on the damage processes of armor rocks of rubble-mound breakwater. The expected damage levels over time, which are numerically simulated with the estimated parameters, are in very good agreement with those from the flume testing. It has been found from various numerical calculations that the probabilities exceeding the failure limit are converged to the constraint that the model must be satisfied after lasting for a long time from now. Meanwhile, the expected residual useful lifetimes evaluated from the failure probabilities are seen to be different with respect to the behavior of damage history. As the coefficient of variation of cumulative damage is becoming large, in particular, it has been shown that the expected residual useful lifetimes have significant discrepancies from those of the deterministic regression model. This is mainly due to the effect of sampling and temporal uncertainties associated with damage, by which the first time to failure tends to be widely distributed. Therefore, the stochastic model presented in this paper for predicting the residual useful lifetime of structure can properly implement the probabilistic assessment on current damage state of structure as well as take account of the temporal uncertainty of future cumulative damage.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.28-39
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• 2019

In the design process of counter measures against the beach erosion, information like the main sediment transport mode and yearly net amount of longshore and cross shore transport is of great engineering value. In this rationale, we numerically analyzed the yearly sediment budget of the Mang-Bang beach which is suffering from erosion problem. For the case of cross sediment transport, Bailard's model (1981) having its roots on the Bagnold's energy model (1963) is utilized. In doing so, longshore sediment transport rate is estimated based on the assumption that longshore transport rate is determined by the available wave energy influx toward the beach. Velocity moments required for the application of Bailard's model (1981) is deduced from numerical simulation of the nonlinear shoaling process over the Mang-Bang beach of the 71 wave conditions carefully chosen from the wave records. As a wave driver, we used the consistent frequency Boussinesq Eq. by Frelich and Guza (1984). Numerical results show that contrary to the Bailard's study (1981), Irribaren NO. has non negligible influence on the velocity moments. We also proceeds to numerically simulate the yearly sediment budget of Mang-Bang beach. Numerical results show that for ${\beta}=41.6^{\circ}$, the mean orientation of Mang-Bang beach, north-westwardly moving longshore sediment is prevailing over the south-eastwardly moving sediment, the yearly amount of which is simulated to reach its maxima at $125,000m^3/m$. And the null pint where north-westwardly moving longshore sediment is balanced by the south-eastwardly moving longshore sediment is located at ${\beta}=47^{\circ}$. For the case of cross shore sediment, the sediment is gradually moving toward the shore from the April to mid October, whereas these trends are reversed by sporadically occurring energetic wind waves at the end of October and March. We also complete the littoral drift rose of the Mang-Bang beach, which shows that even though the shore line is temporarily retreated, and as a result, the orientation of Mang-Bang beach is larger than the orientation of null pont, south-eastwardly moving longshore sediment is prevailing. In a case that the orientation of Mang-Bang beach is smaller than the orientation of null pont, north-westwardly moving longshore sediment is prevailing. And these trend imply that the Mang-Bang beach is stable one, which has the self restoring capability once exposed to erosion.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.37-45
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• 2022

A simplified model using the lifetime distribution has been presented to estimate the Mean Residual Life (MRL) of rubble-mound breakwaters, which is not like a stochastic process model based on time-dependent history data to the cumulative damage progress of rubble-mound breakwaters. The parameters involved in the lifetime distribution can be easily estimated by using the upper and lower limits of lifetime and their likelihood that made a judgement by several experts taking account of the initial design lifetime, the past sequences of loads, and others. The simplified model presented in this paper has been applied to the rubble-mound breakwater with TTP armor layer. Wiener Process (WP)-based stochastic model also has been applied together with Monte-Carlo Simulation (MCS) technique to the breakwater of the same condition having time-dependent cumulative damage to TTP armor layer. From the comparison of lifetime distribution obtained from each models including Mean Time To Failure (MTTF), it has found that the lifetime distributions of rubble-mound breakwater can be very satisfactorily fitted by log-normal distribution for all types of cumulative damage progresses, such as exponential, linear, and logarithmic deterioration which are feasible in the real situations. Finally, the MRL of rubble-mound breakwaters estimated by the simplified model presented in this paper have been compared with those by WP stochastic process. It can be shown that results of the presented simplified model have been identical with those of WP stochastic process until any ages in the range of MTT F regardless of the deterioration types. However, a little of differences have been seen at the ages in the neighborhood of MTTF, specially, for the linear and logarithmic deterioration of cumulative damages. For the accurate estimation of MRL of harbor structures, it may be desirable that the stochastic processes should be used to consider properly time-dependent uncertainties of damage deterioration. Nevertheless, the simplified model presented in this paper can be useful in the building of the MRL-based preventive maintenance planning for several kinds of harbor structures, because of which is not needed time-dependent history data about the damage deterioration of structures as mentioned above.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.28-43
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• 2022

This study classified UAV image-based physical spatial types for parks in urban areas of Changwon City and analyzed thermal comfort characteristics according to physical spatial types by comparing them with ENVI-met thermal comfort results. Physical spatial types were classified into four types according to UAV-based NDVI and SVF characteristics. As a result of ENVI-met thermal comfort, the T_MRT difference between the tree-dense area and other areas was up to 30℃ or more, and it was 19. 6℃ at 16:00, which was the largest during the afternoon. As a result of analyzing UAV-based physical spatial types and thermal comfort characteristics by time period, it was confirmed that the physical spatial types with high NDVI and high SVF showed a similar to thermal comfort change patterns by time when using UAV, and the physical spatial types with dense trees and artificial structures showed a low correlation to thermal comfort change patterns by time when using UAV. In conclusion, the possibility of identifying the distribution of thermal comfort based on UAV images was confirmed for the spatial type consisting of open and vegetation, and the area adjacent to the trees was found to be more thermally pleasant than the open area. Therefore, in the urban planning stage, it is necessary to create an open space in consideration of natural covering materials such as grass and trees, and when using artificial covering materials, it is judged that spatial planning should be done considering the proximity to trees and buildings. In the future, it is judged that it will be possible to quickly and accurately identify urban climate phenomena and establish urban planning considering thermal comfort through ground LIDAR and In-situ measurement-based UAV image correction.