• Title/Summary/Keyword: 태풍 ‘매미’

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Outliers and Level Shift Detection of the Mean-sea Level, Extreme Highest and Lowest Tide Level Data (평균 해수면 및 최극조위 자료의 이상자료 및 기준고도 변화(Level Shift) 진단)

  • Lee, Gi-Seop;Cho, Hong-Yeon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.32 no.5
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    • pp.322-330
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    • 2020
  • Modeling for outliers in time series was carried out using the MSL and extreme high, low tide levels (EHL, HLL) data set in the Busan and Mokpo stations. The time-series model is seasonal ARIMA model including the components of the AO (additive outliers) and LS (level shift). The optimal model was selected based on the AIC value and the model parameters were estimated using the 'tso' function (in 'tsoutliers' package of R). The main results by the model application, i.e.. outliers and level shift detections, are as follows. (1) The two AO are detected in the Busan monthly EHL data and the AO magnitudes were estimated to 65.5 cm (by typhoon MAEMI) and 29.5 cm (by typhoon SANBA), respectively. (2) The one level shift in 1983 is detected in Mokpo monthly MSL data, and the LS magnitude was estimated to 21.2 cm by the Youngsan River tidal estuary barrier construction. On the other hand, the RMS errors are computed about 1.95 cm (MSL), 5.11 cm (EHL), and 6.50 cm (ELL) in Busan station, and about 2.10 cm (MSL), 11.80 cm (EHL), and 9.14 cm (ELL) in Mokpo station, respectively.

Analysis of Berth Operation Ratio in terms of Wave Response at Busan New Port Site (부산신항역 파랑반응에 따른 부두 가동율 해석)

  • Jeong, Jae-Hyun;Lee, Hak-Seung;Lee, Joong-Woo;Yang, Sang-Yong;Jeong, Young-Hwan
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • v.1
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    • pp.57-62
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    • 2006
  • Busan New Port, under construction aiming for the hub of Northeast Asia and Partly in operation, had damaged up to 48 billion Won due to Typhoon 'maemi' in 2003. The present criteria of domestic harbor design only describes about the critical wave height with respect to the size of vessel for harbor tranquility. The berth operation ratio which represents the annual available berthing days is depending on the efficiency of cargo handling work and this depends on the motion of the moored vessel due to the wave action and the characteristics of cargo gears. The motion of moored vessel might be related not only to the wave height but also to wave period. Furthermore, the berth operation ratio relies on external forces such as currents and winds, including the characteristics of mooring system and the specification of the moored vessel. In this study we only deal with berth operation ratio in normal sea state, considering wave and current by measured data and numerical calculation. Especially we tried to evaluate the berth operation ratio for each berth adopting the variation of dredging and reclamation plan and the change of wave environment during the process of the new port construction. For better understanding and analysis of wave transformation process, we applied the steady state spectral wave model and extended mild-slope wave model to the related site. This study summarizes comparisons of harbor responses predicted by two numerical predictions obtained at Busan New port site. Field and numerical model analysis was conducted for the original port plan and the final corrected plan.

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A Modified grid-based KIneMatic wave STOrm Runoff Model (ModKIMSTORM) (II) - Application and Analysis - (격자기반 운동파 강우유출모형 KIMSTORM의 개선(II) - 적용 및 분석 -)

  • Jung, In Kyun;Shin, Hyung Jin;Park, Jin Hyeog;Kim, Seong Joon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.6B
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    • pp.709-721
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    • 2008
  • This paper is to test the applicability of ModKIMSTORM (Modified KIneMatic Wave STOrm Runoff Model) by applying it to Namgangdam watershed of $2,293km^2$. Model inputs (DEM, land use, soil related information) were prepared in 500 m spatial resolution. Using five typhoon events (Saomi in 2000, Rusa in 2002, Maemi in 2003, Megi in 2004 and Ewiniar in 2006) and two storm events (May of 2003 and July of 2004), the model was calibrated and verified by comparing the simulated streamflow with the observed one at the outlet of the watershed. The Pearson's coefficient of determination $R^2$, Nash and Sutcliffe model efficiency E, the deviation of runoff volumes $D_v$, relative error of the peak runoff rate $EQ_p$, and absolute error of the time to peak runoff $ET_p$ showed the average value of 0.984, 0.981, 3.63%, 0.003, and 0.48 hr for 4 storms calibration and 0.937, 0.895, 8.08%, 0.138, and 0.73 hr for 3 storms verification respectively. Among the model parameters, the stream Manning's roughness coefficient was the most sensitive for peak runoff and the initial soil moisture content was highly sensitive for runoff volume fitting. We could look into the behavior of hyrologic components from the spatial results during the storm periods and get some clue for the watershed management by storms.

Analysis on the Effects of Flood Damage Mitigation according to Installation of Underground Storage Facility (지하저류조 설치에 따른 침수피해 저감효과 분석)

  • Kim, Young Joo;Han, Kun Yeun;Cho, Wan Hee
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.1B
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    • pp.41-51
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    • 2010
  • In this study, runoff simulation was carried out in the area of Bisan 7-dong, Seo-gu, Daegu as drainage basin and the effects of the installation of underground storage facilities were analyzed during heavy rainfall. SWMM model was used for the runoff and pipe network analysis on Typhoon Maemi, 2003. 2-D inundation analysis model based on diffusion wave was employed for inundation analysis and to verify computed inundation areas with observed inundation trace map. The simulation results agree with observed in terms of inundation area and depth. Also, the effects of flood damage mitigation were analyzed through the overflow discharge and 2-D inundation analysis, depending upon whether the underground storage facility is installed or not. When the underground storage facility ($W:120m{\times}L:180m{\times}H:1.7m$) is installed, volume of overflow could be reduced by 72% and flooding area could be reduced by 40.1%. When the underground storage facility ($W:120m{\times}L:180 m{\times}H:2.0m$) is installed, volume of overflow could be reduced by 84.8% and flooding area could be reduced by 50.6%. When the underground storage facility ($W:120m{\times}L:180m{\times}H:2.2m$) is installed, volume of overflow could be reduced by 94% and flooding area could be reduced by 91.2%. There is no overflow of manhole, when the height of storage facility is 2.5 m. It is expected that the study results presented through quantitative analysis on the effects of underground facilities can be used as base data for socially and economically effective installation of underground facilities to prevent flood damage.