• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.46 no.2
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• pp.212-232
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• 2011

The main objective of this study is to establish a population projection method based on the biregional cohort-component method and to apply it to population projections for Busan. Some drawbacks of using the net migration cohort-component method in a regional or local level population projection are demonstrated. A biregional cohort-component method, a variant of the interregional cohort-component method, is established as an alternative where in-migration and out-migration are separately considered and then are combined to produce a projection for the migration component. Predicated on the established method, population projections for Busan are undertaken for the period of 2005~2030 under three different scenarios. Considerably different projection results are obtained between the net migration and biregional methods; among others, the trend of population decline is more severe in the former than in the latter. An investigation of the temporal trend of the projected population shows that the proposed method is highly reasonable. In conclusion, the proposed method based on the biregional cohort-component method seems not only to be theoretically more robust than the net migration cohort-component method but also to be very effective in the real world application.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.703-719
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• 2015

We propose an extension of the Lee and Jho (2015) mean reverting the two factor mortality model by incorporating a period-specific cohort effect. We found that the consideration of cohort effect improves the mortality fit of Korea male data above age 65. Parameters are estimated by the weighted least squares method and Metropolis algorithm. We also emphasize that the cohort effect is necessary to choose the base survival index to calculate longevity bond issue price. A key contribution of the article is the proposal and development of a method to calculate the longevity bond price to hedge the longevity risk exposed to Korea National Pension Services.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.47 no.1
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• pp.98-120
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• 2012

The main objective of this study is to conduct subnational population projections of Korea based on a multiregional cohort-component method. This objective is accomplished by: (i) establishing a viable framework to implement the multiregional cohort-component method with reference to the Markov chain model and Rogers' multiregional population projection model; (ii) applying the established framework to subnational population projections of Korea, 2005~2030. The main results are twofold. First, the proposed method turns out to be highly valid in a methodological sense, which is seen from a high level of coincidence between the estimated and the observed. Second, the projection results turn out to be highly useful in the sense that interregional migration flow matrices are resulted for projection periods. The projected migration flows are expected to provide invaluable information for an understanding of future population change and for a formulation of policy alternatives. This study is strongly inspired by the multiregional perspective emphasizing the evolution of multiple regional populations interconnected by interregional migration flows rather than the overall national change.

• Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.13-24
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• 2019

Objectives : The goals of the study are how to establish the cohort systems for the children and adolescents victims with sexual abuse in Korea and to identify the risk and protective factors that influence mental health in child sexual abuse (CSA). This is initial assessment data based on the analysis of cohort variables for baseline evaluation of subjects. Methods : We constructed the cohort systems for CSA victims recruited by Seoul Sunflower Children Center, CSA victims protection center. The initial assessment data which consisted of demographic and psychological inventories of CSA victims and their parents/families, psychiatric diagnoses were the results of statistical analysis of 65 subjects under 19 years old for 3 years 7 months. Results : The initial data were followings : female participants, N=56; mean age, 11.6 (SD=4.5); the most sexual assault, molestation 71.8%; victims, family and acquaintance 87.1%; 61.5% of the subjects diagnosed with psychiatric disorder; 29.2% diagnosed with PTSD and 23.1% diagnosed with depression. Mean duration for abuse to report is 1.5 years. Mean score of IES-R-K, TSCYC-avoidant and CBCL-problematic behavior were increased above clinical cut-off. Conclusions : CSA victims tend to have high risks in mental health problem. The cohort study could provide the risk and protective factors of CSA in mental health, and construct the predictive model for mental illness in Korea.

• The Journal of Korean Academy of Prosthodontics
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• v.58 no.3
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• pp.193-200
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• 2020

Purpose: To investigate the relationship between dementia and complete tooth loss on both sides or one side using large demographic data. Materials and methods: A retrospective cohort study was designed using the National Health Insurance Service-Elderly Cohort Database (NHIS-ECD) which was established for people over the age of 60. The experimental group was the complete edentulous cohort, which had a history of treatment for national health insurance covered complete denture on both sides or one side from July 1, 2012 to December 31, 2013. And the control group was the dentulous cohort, which had a history of conservative dental treatment for the same period. All subjects had no history of diagnosis or treatment of dementia during this time. These cohorts were matched 1:1 by age, gender, and place of residence according to the propensity score matching method. Then the incidence of dementia was compared between these cohorts. Results: Compared with those groups, the incidence of dementia was significantly higher in the experimental group (12.13%) than in the control group (9.74%) (P<.05). No clear association between other factors has been identified. Conclusion: The analysis of large-scale demographic data shows that the incidence of dementia is high in complete edentulous patients on both sides or one side.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.27-51
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• 2006

In this paper, I have tested various kinds of methods for mortality projection and chose Lee-Carter method for projection of Korean mortality by age and sex. I reviewed the trends of life tables and life expectancies by age and sex from 2005 to 2050 projected by Lee-Carter method and found that the method was very applicable for Korean mortality projection. The differences between reported and estimated data for the period of 1971-2003 were small enough for both sexes and for all of the age groups. The projected life expectancies in 2051 were 82.73 years for males and 89.41 for females, and the differences decreased from 7.06 years in 2005 to 6.68 years. Because of the limitation of Korean infant mortality rate, I adopted the Japanese estimated IMR in 2050 as Korean object level in 2051. When the time series of IMR become long enough, we can use Korean IMR directly for the mortality projection. In addition, if we can estimate the changes of the main cause of death correctly in future, the mortality projection will be more correct and reliable. This will be available when we can produce a long series of life tables by cause of deaths.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.97-115
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• 2023

In recent years, the structure of the population has been changing rapidly, with a declining birthrate and aging population, and the inequality of population distribution is expanding. At this point, changes in population estimation methods are required, and more accurate estimates are needed at the subregional level. This study aims to estimate the population in 2040 at the 500m grid level by applying an explainable machine learning to Busan in order to respond to this need for a change in population estimation method. Comparing the results of population estimation by applying the explainable machine learning and the cohort component method, we found that the machine learning produces lower errors and is more applicable to estimating areas with large population changes. This is because machine learning can account for a combination of variables that are likely to affect demographic change. Overestimated population values in a declining population period are likely to cause problems in urban planning, such as inefficiency of investment and overinvestment in certain sectors, resulting in a decrease in quality in other sectors. Underestimated population values can also accelerate the shrinkage of cities and reduce the quality of life, so there is a need to develop appropriate population estimation methods and alternatives.

• Journal of Nutrition and Health
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• v.52 no.5
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• pp.449-464
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• 2019

Purpose: North Koreans could be at higher risk for their bone health because of previous periods of severe famine and the continuing low availability of food. This study determined the bone mineral density (BMD) status and its relationship with dietary behaviors and nutrient intake of North Korean refugees (NKR) in South Korea (SK). Methods: This cross-sectional study analyzed 110 female NKR from a NORNS cohort of a non-probability sample of adult NKR in Seoul. BMD examined by DEXA was used to divide participants into the normal group (NG) and the non-normal group (NNG) according to the WHO guideline. A self-administered questionnaire included questions on age, the socioeconomic situation in North Korea (NK) and SK, the food security in NK and SK, and the health behaviors, dietary behaviors, and food frequency questionnaire administered in SK. A one-day 24-hr recall was conducted and the results were analyzed by using CanPro. SPSS was used to analyze whether BMD and related dietary behaviors and nutrient intakes differed according to the groups. Results: NG (62.7%) was significantly younger and had a lower abdominal obesity score than NNG (p < 0.001). While 14.5% of NG reported experiencing menopause, all of NNG reported experiencing menopause. The NG more frequently consumed the dairy group of foods (9.6 times a week) than did the NNG (4.8 times a week) after the statistics were adjusted for age (p < 0.007). The NG consumed significantly more animal protein and animal calcium than did the NNG (p = 0.01, p = 0.009, respectively). Calcium intake was low with 49.3% of NG, and 78.0% of the NNG reported consuming calcium lower than the estimated average requirement. Only calcium showed an index of nutrient quality lower than one in both groups. Conclusion: These results showed that NKR women and possibly all North Korean women are at high risk for bone health and they consumed low levels of bone-related nutrients, and this should be considered for the nutrition policy for NKR and North Korea.

• Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.176-183
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• 2021

Objectives : The purpose of this study was to find out how demographic factors, suicide attempt patterns, psychiatric history and management of suicide attempters affect the completion of emergency department (ED) based case management program. Methods : Among the patients who attempted suicide and visited the emergency department of Chung-Ang University Hospital from June 1, 2018 to May 31, 2021, 661 patients who agreed to case management were studied. After being discharged from the emergency department, subjects were registered for an eight-week follow-up service program. Hierarchical logistic regression analysis was conducted with demographic factors, suicide attempt patterns, psychiatric history and management as independent variables, and completion of case management program as dependent variables. Results : Suicide attempt pattern had the most significant influence on the completion of case management program, followed by demographic factors, psychiatric history and management. Those who completed the case management program were significantly more likely to have suicide plans in the future, more authentic in suicide attempts, and had higher proportion of past suicide attempts than those who did not complete the program. Conclusions : To ensure that the subjects complete the follow-up project program and get connected to community services, an individualized approach with consideration of suicide attempt patterns, demographic factors, and psychiatric history is needed.

• Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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• v.63 no.5
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• pp.405-411
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• 2007

Background: The objective of this study was to evaluate the clinical applicability of the repeatability criteria recommended by the American Thoracic Society/European Respiratory Society (ATS/ERS) spirometry guidelines and to determine which factors affect the repeatability of spirometry in Korean adults. Methods: We reviewed the spirometry data of 4,663 Korean adults from the Korean National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (KNHANES) Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Cohort (COPD cohort) and the Community-based Cohort Study VI-Fishing village/Islands (community cohort). We measured the anthropometric factors and differences between the highest and second-highest FVC (dFVC) and $FEV_1$ ($dFEV_1$) from prebronchodilator spirometry. Analyses included the distribution of dFVC and $dFEV_1$, comparison of the values meeting the 1994 ATS repeatability criteria with the values meeting the 2005 ATS/ERS repeatability criteria, and the performance of linear regression for evaluating the influence of subject characteristics and the change of criteria on the spiro-metric variability. Results: About 95% of subjects were able to reproduce FVC and $FEV_1$ within 150 ml. The KNHANES based on the 1994 ATS guidelines showed poorer repeatability than the COPD cohort and community cohort based on the 2005 ATS/ERS guidelines. Demographic and anthropometric factors had little effect on repeatability, explaining only 0.5 to 3%. Conclusion: We conclude that the new spirometry repeatability criteria recommended by the 2005 ATS/ERS guidelines is also applicable to Korean adults. The repeatability of spirometry depends little on individual characteristics when an experienced technician performs testing. Therefore, we suggest that sustained efforts for public awareness of new repeatability criteria, quality control of spirograms, and education of personnel are needed for reliable spirometric results.