• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
• /
• v.27 no.1
• /
• pp.263-280
• /
• 2011

The global financial crisis, triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007, has put the world economy into the recession with financial market turmoil. I tested whether variables were cointegrated or whether there was an equilibrium relationship. Also, Generalized impulse-response function (GIRF) and accumulation impulse-response function (AIRF) may be used to understand and characterize the time series dynamics inherent in economical systems comprised of variables that may be highly interdependent. Moreover, the IRFs enables us to simulate the response in freight to a shock in the USD/JPY exchange rate, Dow Jones industrial average index, Dow Jones volatility, Chinese Import volatility. The result on the cointegration test show that the hypothesis of no cointergrating vector could be rejected at the 5 percent level. Also, the empirical analysis of cointegrating vector reveals that the increases of USD/JPY exchange rate have negative relations with freight. The result on the impulse-response analysis indicate that freight respond negatively to volatility, and then decay very quickly. Consequently, the results highlight the potential usefulness of the multivariate time series techniques accounting to behavior of Freight.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
• /
• v.26 no.2
• /
• pp.49-57
• /
• 2010

This paper examines the relationship between port import from China and macroeconomic variables such as international financial crisis, exchange rate, and industrial production during the period 2000-2009. I employ GPH cointegration methodology since the model must be stationary to avoid the spurious results. The empirical results show that our model is stationary as well as mean-reverting. This paper also applies impulse-response functions to get additional information regarding the responses of the port import to the shocks economic variables such as financial crisis, exchange rate, and industrial production. The results show that the response of port import to exchange rate and financial crisis declines at the first and dies out slowly.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
• /
• 2001.05a
• /
• pp.1077-1082
• /
• 2001

기존의 타이어를 사용한 중량충격음에 대한 차음성능 평가방법의 타당성을 살펴보기 위하여 청감실험에 의한 감성적 반응결과와 L등급 및 Leq에 의한 평가 결과를 비교 분석하였다. 동일한 바닥충격원에 대한 분석결과 L등급평가 보다 Leq에 의한 평가가 청감실험의 반응에 잘 대응하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한, Zwicker parameters 중 Loudness와 Unbiased Annoyance는 청감실험과 가장 유사한 경향을 보였다.

• International Area Studies Review
• /
• v.22 no.4
• /
• pp.3-18
• /
• 2018

In this study, I examined capital market shock reaction effects of 29 OECD countries with the past 24 years sample period consisting of daily stock market return using T-GARCH model focused on volatility feedback hypothesis. US daily stock market return is used as a unique independent variable in this model in consideration of its characteristics of biggest market share and as an origin country of Global Financial Crisis. As a result, France, Finland, and Mexico in order are shown to be the strongest countries in the aspect of return spillovers from US. Canada, Mexico, and France are shown to be the highest countries in the aspect of explanatory power of model. The degrees of shock reaction are proved to be higher in order in Germany, Chile, Switzerland, and Denmark and those of downside shock reaction are seen higher in order in Greece, Great Britain, Australia, and Japan. Canada and Mexico belonging to NAFTA are shown to be higher in the return spillover from US and in the model explanatory power, but they are shown to be lower in the impact of shock reaction, suggesting that regional distance effect or gravity theory cannot be applied to financial spillovers any longer. In the analysis of subsample period of Global Financial Crisis, north American three countries do not show any consistent results as in the full sample period but shock reaction in the European countries are shown to record stronger, suggesting that shocks from US in the Crisis Times are transferred mainly to European region.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Studies
• /
• v.13 no.1
• /
• pp.111-131
• /
• 2007

본 연구에서는 한국과 미국 두 국가에 있어 이자율 스왑시장간의 정보전달 메커니즘에 대해 분석하였다. 이를 위하여 데이터로 2003년 초부터 2006년 말까지 4년간 Bloomberg에서 집계된 3년물, 5년물, 10년물 이자율 스왑금리를 사용하였으며, 메커니즘의 동태 분석은 VAR 모형을 사용하였다. 분석 결과, 그랜저 인과관계 검정, 충격반응함수 분석 및 분산분해 분석 모두 결과적으로 미국 이자율 스왑시장의 정보가 국내 이자율 스왑시장에 상당한 영향력을 가진다는 사실을 알 수 있었다. 또한 이러한 미국 시장의 국내 시장으로의 정보의 전이 현상은 3년물, 5년물, 10년물 이자율 스왑에 같이 나타나는 현상으로 스왑계약 기간에 상관없음이 관측되었다. 한편, 충격반응함수 분석 결과, 미국의 이자율 스왑시장의 충격은 국내 이자율 스왑시장에 다음 날 바로 유의한 영향을 주는 것으로 나타났으며 그 충격은 2일간 지속되었다. 반면 국내 이자율 스왑시장의 정보는 미국 시장에 별 영향력을 발휘하지 못했다.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
• /
• v.27 no.2
• /
• pp.217-240
• /
• 2011

In this study, vector autoregressive and vector error correction models in the short-run dynamics are considered to analyze the effect of the changes in international crude oil prices on Baltic dry index, Baltic Capesize index and Baltic Panamax index, and the intercorrelations between Capesize and Panamax prices, respectively. First, using the vector autoregressive model, the changes in international crude oil price have a statistically significant positive effect for Capesize at lag 1, for Panamax a significant negative effect at lag 3 and a significant positive effect for Baltic dry index at lag 1. From the impulse response analysis, the international crude oil price causes Baltic dry index to increase in the sort-run and the effect converges on the mean after 3 months. Second, using the vector error correction model, the empirical results for the spillover effects between Capesize and Panamax markets provide that in the case of the deviation from a long-run equilibrium the Panamax price is adjusted toward decreasing. The increases in freight rates of the Capesize market at lag 1 lead to increase the freight rates in Panamax market at present. The Panamax responses from the Capesize shocks increase rapidly for 3 months and the effect converges on the mean after 5 months. The Capesize responses from the Panamax shocks are relatively small, and increase weakly for 3 months and the effect disappears thereafter.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.24 no.5
• /
• pp.799-807
• /
• 2011

This study investigates long and short run responses of variables to exogenous shocks by imposing prior restrictions on a contemporaneous structural shock coefficient matrix of the model to identify shocks by endogenous variables in the vector autoregression. The relative importance of each structural shock in variation of each variable is calculated through the identification of proper restrictions (not based on any specific theory but on researcher judgment corresponding to actual situations) and an estimation of the structural vector autoregression. The results of the analyses are found to maintain consistency.

• Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society
• /
• v.20 no.6
• /
• pp.2953-2966
• /
• 2018

Housing prices are closely related to various variables that indicate macroeconomic conditions. In this paper, empirical analysis based on data is performed referring to previous studies. Focusing on the policy interest rate among the factors affecting the housing price, the non-linear impulse responses of other variables to the interest rate shock are analyzed. Using the random forest algorithm, the variable importance scores of the macroeconomic variables presented in the previous studies are calculated. After selecting the variables through this process, the impulse responses are calculated using a model that can capture non-linearity. According to the model, the responses of housing prices to the policy rate is only significant when the rate is raised. Especially, the impulse response is amplified when the shock increases due to the non-linear characteristics that can not be captured by the traditional VAR methodology. The analysis results suggest that the interest rate as a policy instrument should be approached from a more cautious perspective.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers Conference
• /
• 2009.11a
• /
• pp.163-166
• /
• 2009

Bullet and fragment impact test with rocket motors was performed and characteristics of the results were analyzed. The material of the motor case was carbon epoxy composite. The motor was loaded with HTPE propellants to improve the insensitive munitions characteristics. In the tests, sound pressure and heat flux sensors were used to determine the category of response according to the standard. The reaction response of all of the HTPE motors impacted by bullet and fragment was judged as Type V burning.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
• /
• v.22 no.3
• /
• pp.401-412
• /
• 2011

This study uses a vector error correction model to analyze the daily time series data of the spot price of EUA (European Union Allowance). As endogenous variables, five variables are considered for the analysis, including prices of crude oil, natural gas, electricity and coal in addition to carbon price. Data period is Phase 2 period (April 21, 2008 to March 31, 2010) to avoid Phase 1 period (2005-2007) where the EUA prices were distorted. Unit-root and cointegration test results reveal that all variables have a unit root and cointegration vectors exist, so a vector error correction model is adopted instead of a vector autoregressive model.