• Title/Summary/Keyword: 추론 검증

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Risk Aversion in Forward Foreign Currency Markets (선도환시장(先渡換市場)에서의 위험회피도(危險回避度)에 관한 연구(硏究))

  • Jang, Ik-Hwan
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.179-197
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    • 1991
  • 선도환의 가격을 결정하는 접근방법에는 2차자산(derivative assets)이라는 선도계약의 기본특성에 기초한 재정거래(arbitrage)에 의한 방법이 가장 많이 이용되고 있다. 재정거래방식에는 선도환과 현물외환가격간의 상호관련성에 의하여 선도환가격을 이자율평가설(covered interest rate parity : CIRP), 즉 현물가격과 양국간의 이자율차이의 합으로 표시하고 있다. 특히 현물가격과 이자율은 모두 현재시점에서 의사결정자에게 알려져 있기때문에 선도환가격은 확실성하에서 결정되어 미래에 대한 예측이나 투자자의 위험회피도와는 관계없이 결정된다는 것이 특징이다. 이자율평가설에 관한 많은 실증연구는 거래 비용을 고려한 경우 현실적으로 적절하다고 보고 있다(Frenkel and Levich ; 1975, 1977). 다른 방법으로는 선도환의 미래예측기능에만 촛점을 맞추어 가격결정을 하는 투기, 예측접근방법(speculative efficiency approach : 이하에서는 SEA라 함)이 있다. 이 방법 중에서 가장 단순한 형태로 표시된 가설, 즉 '선도환가격은 미래기대현물가격과 같다'는 가설은 대부분의 실증분석에서 기각되고 있다. 이에 따라 SEA에서는 선도환가격이 미래에 대한 기대치뿐만 아니라 위험프리미엄까지 함께 포함하고 있다는 새로운 가설을 설정하고 이에 대한 실증분석을 진행한다. 이 가설은 이론적 모형에서 출발한 것이 아니기 때문에, 특히 기대치와 위험프레미엄 모두가 측정 불가능하다는 점으로 인하여 실증분석상 많은 어려움을 겪게 된다. 이러한 어려움을 피하기 위하여 많은 연구에서는 이자율평가설을 이용하여 선도환가격에 포함된 위험프레미엄에 대해 추론 내지 그 행태를 설명하려고 한다. 이자율평가설을 이용하여 분석모형을 설정하고 실증분석을 하는 것은 몇가지 근본적인 문제점을 내포하고 있다. 먼저, 앞서 지적한 바와 같이 이자율평가설을 가정한다는 것은 SEA에서 주된 관심이 되는 미래예측이나 위험프레미엄과는 관계없이 선도가격이 결정 된다는 것을 의미한다. 따라서 이자율평가설을 가정하여 설정된 분석모형은 선도환시장의 효율성이나 균형가격결정에 대한 시사점을 제공할 수 없다는 것을 의미한다. 즉, 가정한 시장효율성을 실증분석을 통하여 다시 검증하려는 것과 같다. 이러한 개념적 차원에서의 문제점 이외에도 실증분석에서의 추정상의 문제점 또한 존재한다. 대부분의 연구들이 현물자산의 균형가격결정모형에 이자율평가설을 추가로 결합하기 때문에 이러한 방법으로 설정한 분석모형은 그 기초가 되는 현물가격모형과는 달리 자의적 조작이 가능한 형태로 나타나며 이를 이용한 모수의 추정은 불필요한 편기(bias)를 가지게 된다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 실증분석상의 편기에 관한 문제점이 명확하고 구체적으로 나타나는 Mark(1985)의 실증연구를 재분석하고 실증자료를 통하여 위험회피도의 추정치에 편기가 발생하는 근본원인이 이자율평가설을 부적절하게 사용하는데 있다는 것을 확인 하고자 한다. 실증분석결과는 본문의 <표 1>에 제시되어 있으며 그 내용을 간략하게 요약하면 다음과 같다. (A) 실증분석모형 : 본 연구에서는 다기간 자산가격결정모형중에서 대표적인 Lucas (1978)모형을 직접 사용한다. $$1={\beta}\;E_t[\frac{U'(C_{t+1})\;P_t\;s_{t+1}}{U'(C_t)\;P_{t+1}\;s_t}]$$ (2) $U'(c_t)$$P_t$는 t시점에서의 소비에 대한 한계효용과 소비재의 가격을, $s_t$$f_t$는 외환의 현물과 선도가격을, $E_t$${\beta}$는 조건부 기대치와 시간할인계수를 나타낸다. Mark는 위의 식 (2)를 이자율평가설과 결합한 다음의 모형 (4)를 사용한다. $$0=E_t[\frac{U'(C_{t+1})\;P_t\;(s_{t+1}-f_t)}{U'(C_t)\;P_{t+1}\;s_t}]$$ (4) (B) 실증분석의 결과 위험회피계수 ${\gamma}$의 추정치 : Mark의 경우에는 ${\gamma}$의 추정치의 값이 0에서 50.38까지 매우 큰 폭의 변화를 보이고 있다. 특히 비내구성제품의 소비량과 선도프레미엄을 사용한 경우 ${\gamma}$의 추정치의 값은 17.51로 비정상적으로 높게 나타난다. 반면에 본 연구에서는 추정치가 1.3으로 주식시장자료를 사용한 다른 연구결과와 비슷한 수준이다. ${\gamma}$추정치의 정확도 : Mark에서는 추정치의 표준오차가 최소 15.65에서 최대 42.43으로 매우 높은 반면 본 연구에서는 0.3에서 0.5수준으로 상대적으로 매우 정확한 추정 결과를 보여주고 있다. 모형의 정확도 : 모형 (4)에 대한 적합도 검증은 시용된 도구변수(instrumental variables)의 종류에 따라 크게 차이가 난다. 시차변수(lagged variables)를 사용하지 않고 현재소비와 선도프레미엄만을 사용할 경우 모형 (4)는 2.8% 또는 2.3% 유의수준에서 기각되는 반면 모형 (2)는 5% 유의수준에서 기각되지 않는다. 위와같은 실증분석의 결과는 앞서 논의한 바와 같이 이자율평가설을 사용하여 균형자산가격 결정모형을 변형시킴으로써 불필요한 편기를 발생시킨다는 것을 명확하게 보여주는 것이다.

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A study on the limit of orthodontic treatment (교정 치료의 한계에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sun-Ju;Park, So-Young;Woo, Hae-Hong;Park, Eun-Jie;Kim, Young-Ho;Lee, Shin-Jae;Moon, Seong-Cheol;Baek, Seung-Hak
    • The korean journal of orthodontics
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    • v.34 no.2 s.103
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    • pp.165-175
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    • 2004
  • Information on the limits of treatment could allow for more rational treatment Planning and better results after treatment. From this point of view, this article has attempted to discuss the limits of orthodontic tooth movement. A relatively wider range of tooth movement is expected after Class III surgical-orthodontics than after conventional orthodontic treatment in general. The purposes of this Paper were: first, to evaluate the reliability of teeth position measuring gauge; and second, to elucidate the limits of orthodontic tooth movement. Dental casts of fifty-fine subjects were analyzed by using Set-up model checker (InVisitec Co., Korea) before and aster the Class III surgical-orthodontic treatment. The changes of maxillary and mandibular dental arch widths were also measured from the canines to the second molars. To test the inter-examiner reliability, randomly selected casts were measured by another examiner. Descriptive statistics and paired t tests were used to explain the tooth movement during treatment. The results showed a relatively good reliability of measuring instruments and a very diverse range of tooth movement. Collective changes by the orthodontic tooth movement evaluated in Class III surgical-orthodontics allowed for a suggestive interpretation of specific treatment patterns. Arch width changes during the inter-arch coordination were mainly the result of tipping in both buccal segments. Based on the results of this study, the possibility of a change in dentition as a result of orthodontic treatment should be understood in order to launch a well-organized plan of treatment.

The Relationship among Returns, Volatilities, Trading Volume and Open Interests of KOSPI 200 Futures Markets (코스피 200 선물시장의 수익률, 변동성, 거래량 및 미결제약정간의 관련성)

  • Moon, Gyu-Hyen;Hong, Chung-Hyo
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.107-134
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    • 2007
  • This paper tests the relationship among returns, volatilities, contracts and open interests of KOSPI 200 futures markets with the various dynamic models such as granger-causality, impulse response, variance decomposition and ARMA(1, 1)-GJR-GARCH(1, 1)-M. The sample period is from July 7, 1998 to December 29, 2005. The main empirical results are as follows; First, both contract change and open interest change of KOSPI 200 futures market tend to lead the returns of that according to the results of granger-causality, impulse response and variance decomposition with VAR. These results are likely to support the KOSPI 200 futures market seems to be inefficient with rejecting the hypothesis 1. Second, we also find that the returns and volatilities of the KOSPI 200 futures market are effected by both contract change and open interest change of that due to the results of ARMA(1,1)-GJR-GARCH(1,1)-M. These results also reject the hypothesis 1 and 2 suggesting the evidences of inefficiency of the KOSPI 200 futures market. Third, the study shows the asymmetric information effects among the variables. In addition, we can find the feedback relationship between the contract change and open interest change of KOSPI 200 futures market.

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Target Advertisement Service using a Viewer's Profile Reasoning (시청자 프로파일 추론 기법을 이용한 표적 광고 서비스)

  • Kim Munjo;Im Jeongyeon;Kang Sanggil;Kim Munchrul;Kang Kyungok
    • Journal of Broadcast Engineering
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    • v.10 no.1 s.26
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    • pp.43-56
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    • 2005
  • In the existing broadcasting environment, it is not easy to serve the bi-directional service between a broadcasting server and a TV audience. In the uni-directional broadcasting environments, almost TV programs are scheduled depending on the viewers' popular watching time, and the advertisement contents in these TV programs are mainly arranged by the popularity and the ages of the audience. The audiences make an effort to sort and select their favorite programs. However, the advertisement programs which support the TV program the audience want are not served to the appropriate audiences efficiently. This randomly provided advertisement contents can occur to the audiences' indifference and avoidance. In this paper, we propose the target advertisement service for the appropriate distribution of the advertisement contents. The proposed target advertisement service estimates the audience's profile without any issuing the private information and provides the target-advertised contents by using his/her estimated profile. For the experimental results, we used the real audiences' TV usage history such as the ages, fonder and time of the programs from AC Neilson Korea. And we show the accuracy of the proposed target advertisement service algorithm. NDS (Normalized Distance Sum) and the Vector correlation method, and implementation of our target advertisement service system.

MUSIC THERAPY FOR ADOLESCENTS WITH CONDUCT DISORDER (품행장애 청소년의 음악치료 사례연구)

  • Jhin, Hea-Kyung;Kwon, Hea-Kyung
    • Journal of the Korean Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.110-123
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    • 2000
  • The short-term music therapy was performed for adolescents with conduct disorder admitted to Seoul National Mental Hospital for 3 months from Jun to September, 1998. This case study focused mainly on two female patients who participated regularly in the group music therapy. The music therapy process was divided into three phases;beginning, opening up, and closing. This music therapy session consisted of three parts;hello song as beginning, various musical activities, and sound & movement activity as closing. Free musical improvisation, song discussion, musical monodrama, and sound & movement were the mainly applied techniques. Free improvisation was used to enhance, motivate, identify and contain the adolescents' feelings and ideas. Song discussion was used to convey their thoughts and to support each other. Musical monodrama was used to make them have insights into interpersonal relationships. Sound & movement was used to enhance spontaneity. It made them explore their body and voice as an expressive medium. Throughout three months period of music therapy, patient A's communication skill, socialization, and behavior areas were assessed with improvement. She could use music as a symbolic form and was able to share her feelings about herself and her family. Patient B's self-expression and cognitive areas were assessed with improvement. She became more spontaneous and could verbalize her emotions during the group session. Music as a non-verbal and therefore often a non-threatening medium wherein so much can be expressed provided two female patients an atmosphere where a sense of trust may be regained.

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OPERATIONAL MODEL OF TIME-KEEPING SYSTEMS OF HEUMGYEONGGAK-NU (흠경각루 시보시스템의 작동모델)

  • KIM, SANG HYUK;YUN, YONG-HYUN;MIHN, BYEONG-HEE;LEEM, BYONG GUEN;YOON, MYUNG KYOON;LEEM, BYONG SI
    • Publications of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.31-40
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    • 2019
  • We study the internal structure under the artificial mountain of Heumkyeonggak-nu, a Korean water-powered clock in the early Joseon dynasty. All the puppets on the artificial mountain are driven by the rotational force generated by the water wheel at their designated time. We design a model that work with three parts of the artificial mountain. At the upper part of the artificial mountain to the east, west, north and south, there are four puppets called the Four Mystical Animal Divinity and four ladies called the Jade Lady respectively. The former rotates a quarter every double hour and the latter rings the bell every hour. In the middle part of this mountain is the timekeeping platform with four puppets; the Timekeeping Official (Hour Jack), the Bell-, Drum-, and Gong-Warriors. The Hour Jack controls time with three warriors each hitting his own bell, drum, and gong, respectively. In the plain there are 12 Jade Lady puppets (the lower ladies) combined with 12 Oriental Animal Deity puppets. In his own time a lady doll pops out of the hole and her animal doll gets up. Two hours later, the animal deity lies down and his lady hides in the artificial plain. These puppets are regularly moved by the signal such as iron balls, bumps, levers, and so on. We can use balls and bumps to explain the concept of the Jujeon system. Iron balls were used to manipulate puppets of the timekeeping mechanism in Borugak-nu, another Korean water-powered clock in Joseon dynasty, which was developed earlier than Heumgyeonggak-nu. According to the North Korea's previous study (Choi, 1974), it is obvious that bumps were used in the internal structure of Heumgyeonggak-nu. In 1669, The armillary clock made by Song, I-young was also utilized bumps. Finally we presented mock-ups of three timekeeping systems.

The Effects of Use Patterns and Service Quality on Performance and Use Satisfaction on Library Information System (도서관의 이용패턴과 서비스품질이 정보화성과지각 및 만족에 미치는 영향)

  • Jung, Hyung-Shik;Yeoum, Seoung-Yeoub
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.217-244
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    • 2008
  • Consumers' overall satisfaction on a specific library use is inferred to be primarily accrued from their performance perception and use satisfaction on the library information service system as recent information technology is being rapidly improved and more libraries are being equipped with advanced information technologies. However, prior research has been conducted only on general library service quality and visitors' satisfaction, leaving the important aspects of visitors' library use and information performance perception. Thus, the objectives of this research are to examine the effect of library use patterns such as general visit for book reading and more professional information search, coupled with service quality, on the library users' performance perception on the information system that in turn, affects library use satisfaction on the same information system. More specifically, this study examines whether library visitors perceive differenltly the information system performance according to their library use patterns such that professional library users may have less positive on information system service due to their higher expectation or more positive perception on it due to variety of information uses and positive judgment on advanced information system. Next, three dimensions of service quality, consisting of interaction, outcome, and physical evidence quality in visitors' library use situations, are hypothesized to affect performance perception on library information system. Thirdly, the performance perception on library information system is hypothesized to influence the system use satisfaction while these two constructs are to affect visitors' overall satisfaction. we develop the following research model in accordance with the above theoretical reasoning. All variables used in this study(General Use Patterns, Professional Use Patterns, Interaction Quality, Outcome Quality, Physical Evidence Quality, Information Performance Perception, Information Use Satisfaction, Overall Satisfaction) were defined operationally based on the underlying prior studies. A survey was conducted with prepared questionnaires to about 400 visitors of a specific university library. Among them, 353 proper questionnaires were finally used for the analyses. Two-step approach was used to test the hypotheses. First, confirmatory factor analysis was conducted to guarantee the validity and reliability of variables. The results showed that all variables had not only convergent and discriminant validity, but also reliability. Then, research model was examined with a structural equation using LISREL 8.30 version. The fitness of the research model was found to be within the acceptable level. The findings of this study are as follows. The professional library use pattern was found to affect the users' performance perception on the library information system while the general library use pattern was not. Second, three dimensions of service quality (interaction, outcome, physical evidence) were found to influence the information system performance respectively while none of them was not to information use satisfaction. Third, library users' performance perception on the information system operation was found to affect the information system use satisfaction, both of which also influence users' overall satisfaction of the library. The findings of this study suggest that contemporary libraries strengthen their advanced information system operation in a way of user orientation and more importantly maximize their visitors' utilization of information system, accompanying proper material and various program development. This study conceptualized the new constructs of library users' performance perception on the information system and information use satisfaction which could better explain library users' overall satisfaction. Thus, furture study related with library service could utilize the constructs of information system performance and satisfaction as well as the variety of library use patterns in the users' viewpoints.

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Conceptualization of an SSI-PCK Framework for Teaching Socioscientific Issues (과학기술 관련 사회쟁점 교육을 위한 교과교육학적 지식(SSI-PCK) 요소에 대한 탐색)

  • Lee, Hyunju
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.539-550
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of the study is to conceptualize SSI-PCK by identifying major components and sub-components to promote science teachers' confidence and knowledge on teaching SSIs. To achieve this, I conducted extensive literature reviews on teachers' perceptions on SSI, case studies of teachers addressing SSIs, SSI instructional strategies, etc. as well as PCK. Results indicate that SSI-PCK include six major components: 1) Orientation for Teaching SSI (OTS), 2) Knowledge of Instructional Strategies for Teaching SSI (KIS), 3) Knowledge of Curriculum (KC), 4) Knowledge of Students' SSI Learning (KSL), 5) Knowledge of Assessment in SSI Learning (KAS), and 6) Knowledge of Learning Contexts (KLC). OTS refers to teachers' instructional goals and intentions for teaching SSIs. Teachers often present a) activity-driven, b) knowledge and higher order thinking skills, c) application of science in everyday life, d) nature of science and technology, e) citizenship and f) activism orientations for teaching SSIs. KIS indicates teachers' instructional knowledge required for effectively designing and implementing SSI lessons. It includes a) SSI lesson design, b) utilizing progressive instructional strategies, and c) constructing collaborative classroom cultures. KC refers to teachers' knowledge on a) connection to science curriculum (horizontal/vertical) and b) connection to other subject matters. KSL refers to teachers' knowledge on a) learner experiences in SSI learning, b) difficulties in SSI learning, and c) SSI reasoning patterns. KAS indicates teachers' knowledge on a) dimensions of SSI learning to assess, and b) methods of assessing SSI learning. Finally, KLC refers to teachers' knowledge on the cultures of a) classrooms, b) schools, and c) community and society where they are located when teaching SSIs.

The Strategy of Characterizing Space that uses Anti-House as a Metaphor for Character's Self-Defense Mechanism - Focusing on the TV Series and the Theater version of - (캐릭터의 자아방어기제를 은유하는 '안티돔' 공간의 성격화 전략 - <에반게리온>의 TV 시리즈와 극장판 를 중심으로 -)

  • Yang, Se-Hyeok;Ryu, Beom-Yeol
    • Cartoon and Animation Studies
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    • s.41
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    • pp.75-106
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    • 2015
  • Animations characterize space as a strategy to effectively show the inner conflicts of characters and to highlight the theme. During the process of inner conflict, characters unconsciously use defense mechanism to protect their egos from the fear that came from deficiency, and because of the self-deceptive quality of self-defense mechanism, the reality is distorted and conflicts get intensified. This study focuses on the concept of anti-house, the space where conflicts get intensified, analyzes animations to find out the aspect of inner conflict, and interprets the characteristic of space that is used for metaphoric structure frame. Also, it aims to reveal how the defense mechanism, which intensifies the inner conflict of characters, is characterized as anti-house. The analysis in this study was mainly done with the TV series, , and the theater version of . It is because the characters have serious deficiency from broken home and have a psychological quality of closed boundary that is symbolized as 'A.T. field'. Especially, the core character, 'Shinji Ikari', shows how a character uses compulsive self-defense mechanism to deal with inner conflict and as a result, goes through ego-collapse and then introspection. This process of the character's experience is the core of the whole plot. Through analysis, the relationship between the character's self-defense mechanism and the space, anti-house(which expands to Anti-city), was inferred. The space is made up of three axes, x-axis of horizontal space, y-axis of vertical space, and in the sense that all the space has no exit, z-axis of deeper contradictory space. This thesis started with the decision that is the most suitable work in analyzing the metaphorical relationship between self-defense mechanism and anti-house. There was limitation, however, as the typical characteristics of Japanese animations, pedantic composition and the possibility of broad interpretation, hindered clear verification. Hopefully, this limitation will be overcome by following studies and this study is expected to show the importance of space in interpreting the text of animations, and to serve as database for other creative works.

Research Trend and Futuristic Guideline of Platform-Based Business in Korea (플랫폼 기반 비즈니스에 대한 국내 연구동향 및 미래를 위한 가이드라인)

  • Namn, Su Hyeon
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.93-114
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    • 2020
  • Platform is considered as an alternative strategy to the traditional linear pipeline based business. Moreover, in the 4th industrial revolution period, efficiency driven pipeline business model needs to be changed to platform business. We have such success stories about platform as Apple, Google, Amazon, Uber, and so on. However, for those smaller corporations, it is not easy to find out the transformation strategy. The essence of platform business is to leverage network effect in management. Thus platform based management can be rephrased as network management across the business functions. Research on platform business is popular and related to diverse facets. But few scholars cover what the research trend of the domain is. The main purpose of this paper is to identify the research trend on platform business in Korea. To do that we first propose the analytical model for platform architecture whose components are consumers, suppliers, artifacts, and IT platform system. We conjecture that mapping of the research work on platform to the components of the model will make us understand the hidden domain of platform research. We propose three hypotheses regarding the characteristics of research and one proposition for the transitional path from pipeline to platform business model. The mapping is based on the research articles filtered from the Korea Citation Index, using keyword search. Research papers are searched through the keywords provided by authors using the word of "platform". The filtered articles are summarized in terms of the attributes such as major component of platform considered, platform type, main purpose of the research, and research method. Using the filtered data, we test the hypotheses in exploratory ways. The contribution of our research is as follows: First, based on the findings, scholars can find the areas of research on the domain: areas where research has been matured and territory where future research is actively sought. Second, the proposition provided can give business practitioners the guideline for changing their strategy from pipeline to platform oriented. This research needs to be considered as exploratory not inferential since subjective judgments are involved in data collection, classification, and interpretation of research articles.