• Title/Summary/Keyword: 최소자승 추정법

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The Applicability Assesment of the Short-term Rainfall Forecasting Using Translation Model (이류모델을 활용한 초단시간 강우예측의 적용성 평가)

  • Yoon, Seong-Sim;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.43 no.8
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    • pp.695-707
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    • 2010
  • The frequency and size of typhoon and local severe rainfall are increasing due to the climate change and the damage also increasing from typhoon and severe rainfall. The flood forecasting and warning system to reduce the damage from typhoon and severe rainfall needs forecasted rainfall using radar data and short-term rainfall forecasting model. For this reason, this study examined the applicability of short-term rainfall forecast using translation model with weather radar data to point out that the utilization of flood forecasting in Korea. This study estimated the radar rainfall using Least-square fitting method and estimated rainfall was used as initial field of translation model. The translation model have verified accuracy of forecasted radar rainfall through the comparison of forecasted radar rainfall and observed rainfall quantitatively and qualitatively. Almost case studies showed that accuracy is over 0.6 within 4 hours leading time and mean of correlation coefficient is over 0.5 within 1 hours leading time in Kwanak and Jindo radar site. And, as the increasing the leading time, the forecast accuracy of precipitation decreased. The results of the calculated Mean Area Precipitation (MAP) showed forecast rainfall tend to be underestimated than observed rainfall but the correlation coefficient more than 0.5. Therefore it showed that translation model could be accurately predicted the rainfall relatively. The present results indicate that possibility of translation model application of Korea just within 2 hours leading forecasted rainfall.

Comparison of Experimental Values and Theoretical Predictions of the Dielectric Constant of Epoxy/BaTiO$_3$ Composite Embedded Capacitor Films (에폭시/BaTiO$_3$ 복합 내장형 커패시터 필름의 유전상수에 관한 실험값과 이론적 예측값과의 비교)

  • 조성동;이상용;현진걸;백경욱
    • Journal of the Microelectronics and Packaging Society
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.87-96
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    • 2004
  • Polymer/ceramic composites are the most promising embedded capacitor material for organic substrates application. Predicting the effective dielectric constant of polymer/ceramic composites is very important for design of composite materials. In this paper, we measured the dielectric constant of epoxy/$BaTiO_3$ composite embedded capacitor films with various $BaTiO_3$ particles loading for 5 different sizes $BaTiO_3$ powders. Experimental data were fitted to several theoretical equations to find the equation useful for the prediction of the effective dielectric constant of polymer/ceramic composites and also to estimate the dielectric constant of $BaTiO_3$ powders. The Lichtenecker equation and the Jayasundere-Smith equation were useful for the prediction of the effective dielectric constant of epoxy/$BaTiO_3$ composites. And calculated dielectric constants of the $BaTiO_3$ powders were in the range of 100 to 600, which were lower than those of $BaTiO_3$ bulk ceramics.

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The Multi-layer Neural Network for Direct Control Method of Nonlinear System (비선형 시스템의 직접제어방식을 위한 다층 신경회로망)

  • 최광순;정성부;엄기환
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics C
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    • v.35C no.6
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    • pp.99-108
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    • 1998
  • In this paper, we proposed a multi-layer neural network for direct control method of nonlinear system. The proposed control method uses neural network as the controller to learn inverse model of plant. The neural network used consists of two parts; one part is for identification of linear part, and the other is for identification of nonlinear part of inverse system. The neural network has to be learned the liner part with RLS algorithm and the nonlinear part with error of plant. From the simulation and experiment of tracking control to use one link manipulator as plant, we proved usefulness of the proposed control method to comparing to conventional direct neural network control method. By comparing the two methods, from simulation and experiment, we were convinced that the proposed control method is more simple and accuracy than the conventional method. Moreover, number of weight and bias to be controller parameter are small, and it has smaller steady state error than conventional method.

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Nonlinear Inference Using Fuzzy Cluster (퍼지 클러스터를 이용한 비선형 추론)

  • Park, Keon-Jung;Lee, Dong-Yoon
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.203-209
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    • 2016
  • In this paper, we introduce a fuzzy inference systems for nonlinear inference using fuzzy cluster. Typically, the generation of fuzzy rules for nonlinear inference causes the problem that the number of fuzzy rules increases exponentially if the input vectors increase. To handle this problem, the fuzzy rules of fuzzy model are designed by dividing the input vector space in the scatter form using fuzzy clustering algorithm which expresses fuzzy cluster. From this method, complex nonlinear process can be modeled. The premise part of the fuzzy rules is determined by means of FCM clustering algorithm with fuzzy clusters. The consequence part of the fuzzy rules have four kinds of polynomial functions and the coefficient parameters of each rule are estimated by using the standard least-squares method. And we use the data widely used in nonlinear process for the performance and the nonlinear characteristics of the nonlinear process. Experimental results show that the non-linear inference is possible.

High Resolution Reconstruction of Multispectral Imagery with Low Resolution (저해상도 Multispectral 영상의 고해상도 재구축)

  • Lee, Sang-Hoon
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.547-552
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    • 2007
  • This study presents an approach to reconstruct high-resolution imagery for multispectral imagery of low-resolution using panchromatic imagery of high-resolution. The proposed scheme reconstructs a high-resolution image which agrees with original spectral values. It uses a linear model of high-and low- resolution images and consists of two stages. The first one is to perform a global estimation of the least square error on the basis of a linear model of low-resolution image associated with high-resolution feature, and next local correction then makes the reconstructed image locally fit to the original spectral values. In this study, the new method was applied to KOMPSAT-1 EOC image of 6m and LANDSAT ETM+ of 30m, and an 1m RGB image was also generated from 4m IKONOS multispectral data. The results show its capability to reconstruct high-resolution imagery from multispectral data of low-resolution.

Analysis of Extreme Wave Conditions for Long-Term Wave Observation Data Considering Directionality (방향성을 고려한 장기 파랑관측자료의 극치파랑조건 분석)

  • Kim, Gunwoo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.700-711
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    • 2022
  • In this study, deepwater design waves were estimated for 16 wave directions and various return periods based on statistical analysis of extreme waves observed for more than 20 years at three stations (Chilbal-do, Geomun-do, Donghae). These values were compared with design waves estimated based on the omni-directional wave data. The Weibull distribution was used as the probability distribution function whose parameters were determined by the least square method. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was applied for the goodness of fit test. Notably, the directional design waves were smaller than the omni-directional design wave for every wave direction. The maximum 50-year wave heights for directional sectors were 7.46 m (NNE), 12.05 m (S), and 9,59 m (SSW) at Chilbal-do, Geomun-do and Donghae whereas those for uni-directional wave data were 7.91 m, 13.82 m and 10.38 m, respectively. This implied possible under-estimation of the deepwater design waves for 16 wave directions being currently used in the design of offshore and coastal structures.

Forecasting the Growth of Smartphone Market in Mongolia Using Bass Diffusion Model (Bass Diffusion 모델을 활용한 스마트폰 시장의 성장 규모 예측: 몽골 사례)

  • Anar Bataa;KwangSup Shin
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.193-212
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    • 2022
  • The Bass Diffusion Model is one of the most successful models in marketing research, and management science in general. Since its publication in 1969, it has guided marketing research on diffusion. This paper illustrates the usage of the Bass diffusion model, using mobile cellular subscription diffusion as a context. We fit the bass diffusion model to three large developed markets, South Korea, Japan, and China, and the emerging markets of Vietnam, Thailand, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia. We estimate the parameters of the bass diffusion model using the nonlinear least square method. The diffusion of mobile cellular subscriptions does follow an S-curve in every case. After acquiring m, p, and q parameters we use k-Means Cluster Analysis for grouping countries into three groups. By clustering countries, we suggest that diffusion rates and patterns are similar, where countries with emerging markets can follow in the footsteps of countries with developed markets. The purpose was to predict the timing and the magnitude of the market maturity and to determine whether the data follow the typical diffusion curve of innovations from the Bass model.

Model-Based Plane Detection in Disparity Space Using Surface Partitioning (표면분할을 이용한 시차공간상에서의 모델 기반 평면검출)

  • Ha, Hong-joon;Lee, Chang-hun
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.4 no.10
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    • pp.465-472
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    • 2015
  • We propose a novel plane detection in disparity space and evaluate its performance. Our method simplifies and makes scenes in disparity space easily dealt with by approximating various surfaces as planes. Moreover, the approximated planes can be represented in the same size as in the real world, and can be employed for obstacle detection and camera pose estimation. Using a stereo matching technique, our method first creates a disparity image which consists of binocular disparity values at xy-coordinates in the image. Slants of disparity values are estimated by exploiting a line simplification algorithm which allows our method to reflect global changes against x or y axis. According to pairs of x and y slants, we label the disparity image. 4-connected disparities with the same label are grouped, on which least squared model estimates plane parameters. N plane models with the largest group of disparity values which satisfy their plane parameters are chosen. We quantitatively and qualitatively evaluate our plane detection. The result shows 97.9%와 86.6% of quality in our experiment respectively on cones and cylinders. Proposed method excellently extracts planes from Middlebury and KITTI dataset which are typically used for evaluation of stereo matching algorithms.

The Cyclicality of Productivity, Market Power, and Returns to Scale in the Korean Open Economy: An Empirical Analysis 1975-2010 (한국경제의 총요소생산성의 순환성에 관한 실증분석(1975-2010))

  • Park, Sehoon;Zhu, Yan Hua
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.239-261
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    • 2011
  • The cyclicality of productivity has been one of the essential issues in macroeconomics. Since Solow(1957) developed the dominant approach to the measurement of productivity growth, Solow's approach, which assumes the perfect competition, the constant returns to scale, and the full use of input factor has been modified particularly in Hall's(1990) and Basu's(1996) works. Their researches take account of market power, returns to scale, and variable factor utilization. This paper establishes the empirical model based on Hall's(1990) and Basu's(1996) models, estimates 4 types of Solow's reidual in manufacturing and 2 service industries over the period 1975:1-2010:4, and analyzes the cyclicality of measured productivity. The result proved the measured productivity to be procyclical in manufacturing industries and electricity and water industry, and in contrast to the Basu's, the variable factor utilization transformed the countercyclicality of measured productivity into its procyclicality in the Korean economy.

Prediction of Expected Residual Useful Life of Rubble-Mound Breakwaters Using Stochastic Gamma Process (추계학적 감마 확률과정을 이용한 경사제의 기대 잔류유효수명 예측)

  • Lee, Cheol-Eung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.158-169
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    • 2019
  • A probabilistic model that can predict the residual useful lifetime of structure is formulated by using the gamma process which is one of the stochastic processes. The formulated stochastic model can take into account both the sampling uncertainty associated with damages measured up to now and the temporal uncertainty of cumulative damage over time. A method estimating several parameters of stochastic model is additionally proposed by introducing of the least square method and the method of moments, so that the age of a structure, the operational environment, and the evolution of damage with time can be considered. Some features related to the residual useful lifetime are firstly investigated into through the sensitivity analysis on parameters under a simple setting of single damage data measured at the current age. The stochastic model are then applied to the rubble-mound breakwater straightforwardly. The parameters of gamma process can be estimated for several experimental data on the damage processes of armor rocks of rubble-mound breakwater. The expected damage levels over time, which are numerically simulated with the estimated parameters, are in very good agreement with those from the flume testing. It has been found from various numerical calculations that the probabilities exceeding the failure limit are converged to the constraint that the model must be satisfied after lasting for a long time from now. Meanwhile, the expected residual useful lifetimes evaluated from the failure probabilities are seen to be different with respect to the behavior of damage history. As the coefficient of variation of cumulative damage is becoming large, in particular, it has been shown that the expected residual useful lifetimes have significant discrepancies from those of the deterministic regression model. This is mainly due to the effect of sampling and temporal uncertainties associated with damage, by which the first time to failure tends to be widely distributed. Therefore, the stochastic model presented in this paper for predicting the residual useful lifetime of structure can properly implement the probabilistic assessment on current damage state of structure as well as take account of the temporal uncertainty of future cumulative damage.