• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.49 no.4
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• pp.275-282
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• 2016

The objective of this study is to propose a new method to determine the drought event and the design drought severity. In order to define a drought event from precipitation data, theory of run was applied with the cumulative rainfall deficit. When we have a large amount of rainfall over the threshold level, in this study, we compare with the previous cumulative rainfall deficit to determine whether the drought is relieved or not. The recurrence characteristics of the drought severity on the specific duration was analyzed by the conditional bivariate copula function and confidence intervals were estimated to quantify uncertainties. The methodology was applied to Seoul station with the historical dataset (1909~2015). It was observed that the past droughts considered as extreme hydrological events had from 10 to 50 years of return period. On the other hand, the current on-going drought event started from 2013 showed the significantly higher return period. It is expected that the result of this study may be utilized as the reliable criteria based on the concept of return period for the drought contingency plan.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.277-283
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• 2018

The crop growth model has been widely used for climate change impact assessment. Crop growth model require genetic coefficients for simulating growth and yield. In order to determine the genetic coefficients, regional growth monitoring data or yield trial data of crops has been used to calibrate crop growth model. The aim of this study is to verify that yield trial data of corn is appropriate to calibrate genetic coefficients of CERES-MAIZE. Field experiment sites were Suwon, Jinju, Daegu and Changwon. The distance from the weather station to the experimental field were from 1.3km to 27km. Genetic coefficients calibrated by yield trial data showed good performance in silking day. The genetic coefficients associated with silking are determined only by temperature. In CERES-MAIZE model, precipitation or irrigation does not have a significant effect on phenology related genetic coefficients. Although the effective distance of the temperature could vary depending on the terrain, reliable genetic coefficients were obtained in this study even when a weather observation site was within a maximum of 27 km. Therefore, it is possible to estimate the genetic coefficients by yield trial data in study area. However, the yield-related genetic coefficients did not show good results. These results were caused by simulating the water stress without accurate information on irrigation or rainfall. The yield trial reports have not had accurate information on irrigation timing and volume. In order to obtain significant precipitation data, the distance between experimental field and weather station should be closer to that of the temperature measurement. However, the experimental fields in this study was not close enough to the weather station. Therefore, When determining the genetic coefficients of regional corn yield trial data, it may be appropriate to calibrate only genetic coefficients related to phenology.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.191-205
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• 1997

Measurements on subsurface movement of the Songsanri tomb site including the Muryong royal tomb was conducted using a tiltmeter system for the period of 15 months form July 7, 1996 to September 30, 1997. Two coordinate tilt monitoring data shows the biggest movement rate of 2.3mm/m/yr toward south in the frontal wall(N-S tilt) of the Muryong royal tomb. Southward tilting of bricks above the southern fire place in the western wall of the Muryong royal tomb is a proof of southward tilting of the royal tomb since its excavation in 1971. The eastern wall of the Muryong royal tomb is also tilting toward inside the tomb with the rate of 1.523mm/m/yr. Furthermore, tilting rate of wall increases twice in rainy season. It is interpreted tbat infiltration of water into the tomb and nearby ground in rainy season results in dangerous status for the safety of tomb structure. On the whole, normal component tilting of the walls of the 5th tomb is large than its shear component. It shows a small displacement toward one direction without no abrupt change in its direction and amount of tilting. The tilting rate of walls of the 6th tomb is about 8.8mm/m/yr in the dry season which is much bigger than those of other tombs in rainy season. Deformation events of walls of the tombs are closely related to amount of precipitation and variation of temperature. In comparison with different weather conditions, tilting is much bigger during the period of rainy weather than sunny weather. It is interpreted that rainwater flew into the turm through faults and nearby ground. High water content in nearby ground resulted strength of ground. The tilting event of walls shows a hysterisis phenomenon in analysis of temperature effect on tilting event. The walls tilt rapidly with steep rising of temperature, but the tilted walls do not come back to original position with temperature falling. Therefore, a factor of steep increase of the temperature must be removed. It means the tomb have to be kept with constant temperature. The observation of groundwater level using three boreholes located in construction site and original ground represented that groundwater level in construction site is higher than that of original ground during the rainy season from the end of June to August. It means that the drainage system of the Muryong royal tomb is worse than original ground, and it is interpreted that the poor drainage system is related to safety of tomb structure. As above mentioned, it is interpreted that artificial changes of the tomb environment since the excavation, infiltration of rainwater and groundwater into the tomb site and poor drainage system had resulted in dangerous situation for the tomb structure. According to the result of the long period observation for the tomb site, it is interpreted that protection of the tomb site from high water content should be carried out at first, and the rise of temperature by means of the dehumidifier inside the tomb must be removed.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.46 no.12
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• pp.1235-1247
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• 2013

This study is to evaluate the climate change impact on future storage behavior of Chungju dam($2,750{\times}10^6m^3$) and the regulation dam($30{\times}10^6m^3$) using SWAT(Soil Water Assessment Tool) model. Using 9 years data (2002~2010), the SWAT was calibrated and validated for streamflow at three locations with 0.73 average Nash-Sutcliffe model Efficiency (NSE) and for two reservoir water levels with 0.86 NSE respectively. For future evaluation, the HadCM3 of GCMs (General Circulation Models) data by scenarios of SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A2 and B1 of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) were adopted. The monthly temperature and precipitation data (2007~2099) were spatially corrected using 30 years (1977~2006, baseline period) of ground measured data through bias-correction, and temporally downscaled by Change Factor (CF) statistical method. For two periods; 2040s (2031~2050), 2080s (2071~2099), the future annual temperature were predicted to change $+0.9^{\circ}C$ in 2040s and $+4.0^{\circ}C$ in 2080s, and annual precipitation increased 9.6% in 2040s and 20.7% in 2080s respectively. The future watershed evapotranspiration increased up to 15.3% and the soil moisture decreased maximum 2.8% compared to baseline (2002~2010) condition. Under the future dam release condition of 9 years average (2002~2010) for each dam, the yearly dam inflow increased maximum 21.1% for most period except autumn. By the decrease of dam inflow in future autumn, the future dam storage could not recover to the full water level at the end of the year by the present dam release pattern. For the future flood and drought years, the temporal variation of dam storage became more unstable as it needs careful downward and upward management of dam storage respectively. Thus it is necessary to adjust the dam release pattern for climate change adaptation.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.49 no.6
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• pp.551-563
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• 2016

According to the 4th and 5th assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global climate has been rapidly changing because of the human activities since Industrial Revolution. The perceived changes were appeared strongly in temperature and concentration of carbon dioxide ($CO_2$). Global average temperature has increased about $0.74^{\circ}C$ over last 100 years (IPCC, 2007) and concentration of $CO_2$ is unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years (IPCC, 2014). These phenomena influence precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil moisture which have an important role in hydrology, and that is the reason why there is a necessity to study climate change. In this study, Asia region was selected to simulate primary energy index from 1951 to 2100. To predict future climate change effect, Common Land Model (CLM) which is used for various fields across the world was employed. The forcing data was Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) data which is the newest greenhouse gas emission scenario published in IPCC 5th assessment. Validation of net radiation ($R_n$), sensible heat flux (H), latent heat flux (LE) for historical period was performed with 5 flux tower site-data in the region of AsiaFlux and the monthly trends of simulation results were almost equaled to observation data. The simulation results for 2006-2100 showed almost stable net radiation, slightly decreasing sensible heat flux and quite increasing latent heat flux. Especially the uptrend for RCP 8.5 has been about doubled compared to RCP 4.5 and since late 2060s, variations of net radiation and sensible heat flux would be significantly risen becoming an extreme climate condition. In a follow-up study, a simulation for energy index and hydrological index under the detailed condition will be conducted with various scenario established from this study.