• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.16 no.4 s.50
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• pp.393-402
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• 2006

The contamination characteristics of BTEX and TPH components in silty soils with the oil leakage event from point source were studied. The over ratios of three soil pollution standard for TPH component were $1.5{\sim}1.7$ times higher than that of BTEX component. The mean and maximum values of BTEX and TPH components with sample points were B-zone > A-zone > C-zone, and the highest concentrations were measured at $1{\sim}2m$ depth below surface. BTEX and TPH components were increased with linear distance in zone within 120 m and 80 m from point source. For the zone more than 120 m, BTEX and TPH concentrations were under soil pollution standard. The cutoff values of indicator kriging using BTEX and TPH components were defined as confirmative limit, warn- ing limit and counterplan limit. The variograms of indicator-transformed data were selected linear model. The contamination ranges of BTEX and TPH components using confirmative limit and warning limit were estimated similar, but the contamination range of those using counterplan limit was much reduced. The maximum contamination probabilities were estimated by probability maps usinB confirmative limit, warning limit and counterplan limit. The maximum contamination probabilities with three soil pollution standard were estimated 26%, 26% and 13% for BTEX component, and 44%, 38% and 26% for TPH component.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.9-19
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• 2009

This paper describes empirical approach methodology for the quantitative risk assessment of maritime transportation accident (MTA) of a merchant ship. The principal aim of this project is to estimate the risk of MTA that could degrade the ship safety by analyzing the underlying factors contributing to MTA based on the IMO's Formal Safety Assessment techniques and, by assessing the probabilistic risk level of MTA based on the quantitative risk assessment methodology. The probabilistic risk level of MTA to Risk Index (RI) composed with Probability Index (PI) and Severity Index (SI) can be estimated from proposed Maritime Transportation Accident Model (MTAM) based on Bayesian Network with Bayesian theorem Then the applicability of the proposed MTAM can be evaluated using the scenario group with 355 core damaged accident history. As evaluation results, the correction rate of estimated PI, $r_{Acc}$ is shown as 82.8%, the over ranged rate of PI variable sensitivity with $S_p{\gg}1.0$ and $S_p{\ll}1.0$ is shown within 10%, the averaged error of estimated SI, $\bar{d_{SI}}$ is shown as 0.0195 and, the correction rate of estimated RI, $r_{Acc}$(%), is shown as 91.8%. These results clearly shown that the proposed accident model and methodology can be use in the practical maritime transportation field.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.623-631
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• 2011

In recent decade, the occurrences of typhoon and severe storm events are increasing trend due to the climate change. And the intensity of natural disaster is more and more stronger and the loss of life and damage of property are also increasing. Therefore, this study tried to understand the impact of climate change on urban drainage system for prevention and control of natural disaster and for this, we selected Gyeyang-gu, Incheon city as a study area. We investigated the climate models and scenarios for the selection of proper model and scenario, then we estimated frequency based rainfall in hourly unit considering climate change. The XP-SWMM model was used to estimate the future flood discharge on urban drainage system using the estimated frequency based rainfall. As a result, we have known that the study area will be overflown in the future and so we may need prepare proper measures for the flood prevention and control.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.141-149
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• 1993

Production of hydro-energy is random in its output amount due to the characteristics of the reservoir inflows. Therefore, it is necessary to provide the rationality in determining the amount of energy for a supply contract. This study presents a methodology for determining reasonably reliable amount of the energy supply considering the energy sale-incomes associated with the penalties which are subject to inflow-reliabilities. The objective function consists of the returns of energy sales and the risk-loss function to reflect statistically relevant risks. A range of the coefficient of the risk-loss function was figured out by its sensitivity analysis. The risk-loss herein means the penalty which should be paid by the energy supplier in case that the level of the energy supply is behind the contracted amount. And the reliability of reservoir inflow is defined by the exceedance probability of the inflow. The log-normal distribution was accepted as the probability density function of monthly inflows on the level of significance at 5%. Golden-ratio searching was applied to identify the optimal reliability and Incremental Dynamic Programming was used to maximize generation of the hydro-power energy in reservoir operation. The algorithm was the applied to the Daechung multi-purpose reservoir and hydro-power plant system in order to verify its usefulness.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.127-133
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• 2009

The suspension bridge between Myodo and Gwangyang is located in the main navigation channel to Gwangyang Harbor. So, there is need for the collision protection against large vessels. In this paper, the method of risk analysis and non-linear numerical analysis are conducted to consider the ship collision effects. The results of risk analysis, the annual frequency of collapse is more than the acceptable frequency 0.0001. Therefore, as a ship collision protection, island protection with concrete block quay wall is planned. The ship collision force on the pylon is less than the lateral capacity of pylon from the nonlinear numerical analysis.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2011.05a
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• pp.122-122
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• 2011

수자원 분야에서 기후변화 관련 연구는 치수 측면 보다는 이수 측면에서 주로 이뤄지고 있다. 이는 홍수분석을 위한 시간 단위를 충족시켜주는 전지구 대기순환모형(Global Circulation Model: GCM)의 자료가 드물고, 시간 단위의 GCM 자료라 하더라도 극치값(extreme value) 표현에는 한계가 있기 때문이다. 이를 극복하기 위하여 과거 관측자료의 통계적 특성으로 극치자료의 편의(bias)를 보정하고 시간 단위로 분해하기도 한다. 하지만 이런 통계적 상세화(statistical downscaling)는 미래 기후는 과거자료와 통계적 차이가 유의하지 않음을 가정하고 있어, 미래 기후는 현재와 다를 것이라는 공감대에 는 적합하지 않다. 이와 같은 이유로 타당한 극치수문변수 결과를 얻기 위해서는 시간 단위의 고분해능(high resolution) GCM이나 지역기후모델(regional climate model)과 같은 고해상도의 미래 기후변화 자료가 필요하게 된다. 이에 국립기상연구소에서는 영국 기상청의 통합모델(UM)기반의 지역기후모델(HadGEM3)을 사용하여 50 km 및 12.5 km 격자 단위로 역학적 상세화(dynamic downscaling)를 수행하였다. 본 연구에서는 개발된 HadGEM3-RA 결과의 극치수문변수 검증을 위하여 한강유역의 관측 자료와 다양한 방법으로 비교하였다. 두 자료의 극치값을 GEV (Generalized Extreme Value) 분포에 적합(fitting)시켜 비초과확률별 극치사상과, 특정 임계값(threshold value) 이상의 극치사상 발생확률을 비교하였다. 검토 결과, HadGEM3-RA는 통계적 상세화로 구한 극치값 보다는 작았으나 기존의 지역 기후모델에 비하여 현실성 있는 극치값이 계산되었음을 확인하였다.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.14 no.5
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• pp.53-64
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• 2010

Seismic fragility curves of structures represent the probability of exceeding the prescribed structural damage state for a given various levels of ground motion intensity, such as peak ground acceleration (PGA). This means that seismic fragility curves are essential to the evaluation of structural seismic performance and assessments of risk. Most of existing studies have not considered the near- and far-fault earthquake effect on the seismic fragility curves. In order to evaluate the effect of near- and far-fault earthquakes, seismic fragility curves for PSC box girder bridges subjected to near- and far-fault earthquakes are calculated and compared. The seismic fragility curves are strongly dependent on the earthquake characteristics such as fault distance. This paper suggests that the effect of near- and far-fault earthquakes on seismic fragility curves of PSC box girder bridge structure should be considered.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.188-201
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• 2005

This is the first part of a two-part paper which describes comparison of reliability design methods by application to Donghae Harbor Breakwaters. This paper, Part 1, is restricted to stability of armor blocks, while Part 2 deals with sliding of caissons. Reliability design methods have been developed fur breakwater designs since the mid-1980s. The reliability design method is classified into three categories depending on the level of probabilistic concepts being employed. In the Level 1 method, partial safety factors are used, which are predetermined depending on the allowable probability of failure. In the Level 2 method, the probability of failure is evaluated with the reliability index, which is calculated using the means and standard deviations of the load and resistance. The load and resistance are assumed to distribute normally. In the Level 3 method, the cumulative quantity of failure (e.g. cumulative damage of armor blocks) during the lifetime of the breakwater is calculated without assumptions of normal distribution of load and resistance. Each method calculates different design parameters, but they can be expressed in terms of probability of failure so that tile difference can be compared among the different methods. In this study, we applied the reliability design methods to the stability of armor blocks of the breakwaters of Donghae Harbor, which was constructed by traditional deterministic design methods to be damaged in 1987. Analyses are made for the breakwaters before the damage and after reinforcement. The probability of failure before the damage is much higher than the target probability of failure while that for the reinforced breakwater is much lower than the target value, indicating that the breakwaters before damage and after reinforcement were under- and over-designed, respectively. On the other hand, the results of the different reliability design methods were in fairly good agreement, confirming that there is not much difference among different methods.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.158-169
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• 2019

A probabilistic model that can predict the residual useful lifetime of structure is formulated by using the gamma process which is one of the stochastic processes. The formulated stochastic model can take into account both the sampling uncertainty associated with damages measured up to now and the temporal uncertainty of cumulative damage over time. A method estimating several parameters of stochastic model is additionally proposed by introducing of the least square method and the method of moments, so that the age of a structure, the operational environment, and the evolution of damage with time can be considered. Some features related to the residual useful lifetime are firstly investigated into through the sensitivity analysis on parameters under a simple setting of single damage data measured at the current age. The stochastic model are then applied to the rubble-mound breakwater straightforwardly. The parameters of gamma process can be estimated for several experimental data on the damage processes of armor rocks of rubble-mound breakwater. The expected damage levels over time, which are numerically simulated with the estimated parameters, are in very good agreement with those from the flume testing. It has been found from various numerical calculations that the probabilities exceeding the failure limit are converged to the constraint that the model must be satisfied after lasting for a long time from now. Meanwhile, the expected residual useful lifetimes evaluated from the failure probabilities are seen to be different with respect to the behavior of damage history. As the coefficient of variation of cumulative damage is becoming large, in particular, it has been shown that the expected residual useful lifetimes have significant discrepancies from those of the deterministic regression model. This is mainly due to the effect of sampling and temporal uncertainties associated with damage, by which the first time to failure tends to be widely distributed. Therefore, the stochastic model presented in this paper for predicting the residual useful lifetime of structure can properly implement the probabilistic assessment on current damage state of structure as well as take account of the temporal uncertainty of future cumulative damage.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.277-282
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• 2005

The arrangement of I-picture starting times of multiplexed variable bit .ate (VBR) MPEG videos may significantly affect the cell loss ratio (CLR) characteristics of the multiplexed traffic. This paper presents an efficient I-picture arrangement method which can minimize the CLR of the multiplexed traffic when multiple VBR MPEG videos are multiplexed onto a single constant bit rate link. In the proposed method, we use the probability that the arrival rate exceeds the link capacity as the measure for the CLR of the multiplexed traffic. Simulation results show that the proposed method can find more optimal arrangement than existing methods in respect of the CLR.