• Title/Summary/Keyword: 차원

Search Result 31,826, Processing Time 0.059 seconds

A Data-based Sales Forecasting Support System for New Businesses (데이터기반의 신규 사업 매출추정방법 연구: 지능형 사업평가 시스템을 중심으로)

  • Jun, Seung-Pyo;Sung, Tae-Eung;Choi, San
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.23 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-22
    • /
    • 2017
  • Analysis of future business or investment opportunities, such as business feasibility analysis and company or technology valuation, necessitate objective estimation on the relevant market and expected sales. While there are various ways to classify the estimation methods of these new sales or market size, they can be broadly divided into top-down and bottom-up approaches by benchmark references. Both methods, however, require a lot of resources and time. Therefore, we propose a data-based intelligent demand forecasting system to support evaluation of new business. This study focuses on analogical forecasting, one of the traditional quantitative forecasting methods, to develop sales forecasting intelligence systems for new businesses. Instead of simply estimating sales for a few years, we hereby propose a method of estimating the sales of new businesses by using the initial sales and the sales growth rate of similar companies. To demonstrate the appropriateness of this method, it is examined whether the sales performance of recently established companies in the same industry category in Korea can be utilized as a reference variable for the analogical forecasting. In this study, we examined whether the phenomenon of "mean reversion" was observed in the sales of start-up companies in order to identify errors in estimating sales of new businesses based on industry sales growth rate and whether the differences in business environment resulting from the different timing of business launch affects growth rate. We also conducted analyses of variance (ANOVA) and latent growth model (LGM) to identify differences in sales growth rates by industry category. Based on the results, we proposed industry-specific range and linear forecasting models. This study analyzed the sales of only 150,000 start-up companies in Korea in the last 10 years, and identified that the average growth rate of start-ups in Korea is higher than the industry average in the first few years, but it shortly shows the phenomenon of mean-reversion. In addition, although the start-up founding juncture affects the sales growth rate, it is not high significantly and the sales growth rate can be different according to the industry classification. Utilizing both this phenomenon and the performance of start-up companies in relevant industries, we have proposed two models of new business sales based on the sales growth rate. The method proposed in this study makes it possible to objectively and quickly estimate the sales of new business by industry, and it is expected to provide reference information to judge whether sales estimated by other methods (top-down/bottom-up approach) pass the bounds from ordinary cases in relevant industry. In particular, the results of this study can be practically used as useful reference information for business feasibility analysis or technical valuation for entering new business. When using the existing top-down method, it can be used to set the range of market size or market share. As well, when using the bottom-up method, the estimation period may be set in accordance of the mean reverting period information for the growth rate. The two models proposed in this study will enable rapid and objective sales estimation of new businesses, and are expected to improve the efficiency of business feasibility analysis and technology valuation process by developing intelligent information system. In academic perspectives, it is a very important discovery that the phenomenon of 'mean reversion' is found among start-up companies out of general small-and-medium enterprises (SMEs) as well as stable companies such as listed companies. In particular, there exists the significance of this study in that over the large-scale data the mean reverting phenomenon of the start-up firms' sales growth rate is different from that of the listed companies, and that there is a difference in each industry. If a linear model, which is useful for estimating the sales of a specific company, is highly likely to be utilized in practical aspects, it can be explained that the range model, which can be used for the estimation method of the sales of the unspecified firms, is highly likely to be used in political aspects. It implies that when analyzing the business activities and performance of a specific industry group or enterprise group there is political usability in that the range model enables to provide references and compare them by data based start-up sales forecasting system.

The Pattern Analysis of Financial Distress for Non-audited Firms using Data Mining (데이터마이닝 기법을 활용한 비외감기업의 부실화 유형 분석)

  • Lee, Su Hyun;Park, Jung Min;Lee, Hyoung Yong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.21 no.4
    • /
    • pp.111-131
    • /
    • 2015
  • There are only a handful number of research conducted on pattern analysis of corporate distress as compared with research for bankruptcy prediction. The few that exists mainly focus on audited firms because financial data collection is easier for these firms. But in reality, corporate financial distress is a far more common and critical phenomenon for non-audited firms which are mainly comprised of small and medium sized firms. The purpose of this paper is to classify non-audited firms under distress according to their financial ratio using data mining; Self-Organizing Map (SOM). SOM is a type of artificial neural network that is trained using unsupervised learning to produce a lower dimensional discretized representation of the input space of the training samples, called a map. SOM is different from other artificial neural networks as it applies competitive learning as opposed to error-correction learning such as backpropagation with gradient descent, and in the sense that it uses a neighborhood function to preserve the topological properties of the input space. It is one of the popular and successful clustering algorithm. In this study, we classify types of financial distress firms, specially, non-audited firms. In the empirical test, we collect 10 financial ratios of 100 non-audited firms under distress in 2004 for the previous two years (2002 and 2003). Using these financial ratios and the SOM algorithm, five distinct patterns were distinguished. In pattern 1, financial distress was very serious in almost all financial ratios. 12% of the firms are included in these patterns. In pattern 2, financial distress was weak in almost financial ratios. 14% of the firms are included in pattern 2. In pattern 3, growth ratio was the worst among all patterns. It is speculated that the firms of this pattern may be under distress due to severe competition in their industries. Approximately 30% of the firms fell into this group. In pattern 4, the growth ratio was higher than any other pattern but the cash ratio and profitability ratio were not at the level of the growth ratio. It is concluded that the firms of this pattern were under distress in pursuit of expanding their business. About 25% of the firms were in this pattern. Last, pattern 5 encompassed very solvent firms. Perhaps firms of this pattern were distressed due to a bad short-term strategic decision or due to problems with the enterpriser of the firms. Approximately 18% of the firms were under this pattern. This study has the academic and empirical contribution. In the perspectives of the academic contribution, non-audited companies that tend to be easily bankrupt and have the unstructured or easily manipulated financial data are classified by the data mining technology (Self-Organizing Map) rather than big sized audited firms that have the well prepared and reliable financial data. In the perspectives of the empirical one, even though the financial data of the non-audited firms are conducted to analyze, it is useful for find out the first order symptom of financial distress, which makes us to forecast the prediction of bankruptcy of the firms and to manage the early warning and alert signal. These are the academic and empirical contribution of this study. The limitation of this research is to analyze only 100 corporates due to the difficulty of collecting the financial data of the non-audited firms, which make us to be hard to proceed to the analysis by the category or size difference. Also, non-financial qualitative data is crucial for the analysis of bankruptcy. Thus, the non-financial qualitative factor is taken into account for the next study. This study sheds some light on the non-audited small and medium sized firms' distress prediction in the future.

The Cross-Cultural Study about Effects of Service Quality Dimensions on CS in Korea and China (할인점 서비스품질의 각 차원이 CS에 미치는 영향에 대한 한(韓).중(中)간 비교 문화적 연구)

  • Noh, Eun-Jeong;Seo, Yong-Goo
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
    • /
    • v.19 no.1
    • /
    • pp.23-35
    • /
    • 2009
  • A hypermarket as the one of the most globally standardized retailing format is also the type of store among various types of stores that the most active in expanding into other foreign markets. Recently, as several Korean retailing companies start to penetrate into Chinese market they differentiate themselves with modern facilities and customers service oriented high-end concept. China and Korea as Far East Asian countries share many common values, however precise and careful analysis should be carried out since there may also be critical differences in socio-economic aspects as well as in consumption patterns due to the level of development stages of retail industry among two countries. Even though precise and careful study is crucial on Chinese retailing market and consumers, none of researches and studies on 'how the quality of service dimensional structure is different between Korea and China', and 'what will be the most important and influential service dimensional factors for Chinese consuers compared to the hypermarkets customers in Korea' in order to improve the level of Chinese consumers satisfaction' have been fulfilled At this point of view, this study uses KD-SQS (Rho Eun Jung & Sir Yong Gu, 2008) which is a measure of Korean hypermarkets service quality to set up a hypothesis on Korean and Chinese consumers, and an empirical analysis is conducted. We try to get the answers about how the comparative importance of Service quality dimensions which decides the level of customer satisfaction is different depending on the cultural dimensions and socio-economic factors among two countries, Korea and China. Based upon the results, we try to give a valuable suggestion of what service dimensional factors should be reinforced to improve the level of CS in Chinese retailing market. Hypotheses for this study are as follows : H1. Each dimension of Service Quality significantly affects the level of CS H2. The effect of 'Basic Benefit' in service quality dimensions on the level of CS is greater in China than in Korea H3. The effect of 'Promotion' in service quality dimensions on the level of CS is greater in China than in Korea H4. The effect of 'Physical Aspects'in service quality dimensions on the level of CS is greater in Korea than in China. H5. The effect of 'Personal Interaction' in service quality dimensions on the level of CS is greater in China than in Korea H6. The effect of 'Policy' in service quality dimensions on the level of CS will be greater in Korean than in China H7. The effect of additional convenience in service quality dimensions on the level of CS will be greater in Korean than in China. More than 1,100 data were collected directly from the surveys of Chinese and Korean consumers in order to verify the hypotheses above. In Korea, stores which have floor space of over $9,000m^2$and opened later than year 2000 were selected for the samples, and thus Gayang, Wolgye, Sangbong, Eunpyeong, Suh-Suwon, Gojan stores and their customers were surveyed. In China, notable differences in the income levels and consumer behaviors between cities and regions were considered, and thus the research area was limited to the stores only in Shanghai. 6 stores which have the size of over $6,000m^2$ and opened later than 2000, such as Ruihong, Intu, Mudanjang, Sanrin, Raosimon, and Ranchao stores were selected for the survey. SPSS 12.0 and AMOS 7.0 were used as statistical tools, and exploratory factor analysis, confirmatory factor analysis, and multi-group analysis were conducted. In order to carry out a multi group analysis that decides whether the structure variables which shows the different effects of 6 service dimensions in Korean and Chinese groups is statistically valid, configural invariance, metric invariance, and structural invariance are tested in order. At the results of the tests, 3 out of 7 hypotheses were supported and other 4 hypotheses were denied. According to the study, 4 dimensions (Basic Benefit, Physical Environment, Policy, and additional convenience) were positively correlated with CS in Korea, and 3 dimensions (i.e. basic benefit, policy, additional convenience) were significant in China. However, the significance of the service-dimensions was turned out to be partially different in Korea and China. The Basic Benefit is more influential in deciding the level of CS in china than Korea, however Physical Aspect is more important factor in Korea. 'Policy dimension' did not make significant difference between two countries. In the 'additional convenience dimension', the differences in 'socio-economic factors' than in'cultural background' were considered as more important in Chinese consumers than Korean. Overall, the improvement of Service quality will be crucial factors to increase the level of CS in Chinese market same as Korean market. In addition, more emphases need to be placed on the service qualities of 'Basic Benefit' and 'additional convenience' dimensions in China. In particular, 'low price' and 'product diversity' that constitute 'Basic Benefit' are proved to be comparatively disadvantageous and weak points of Korean companies compared to global players, and thus the prompt strengthening those dimensions would be urgent for Korean retailers. Moreover, additional conveniences such as various tenants and complex service and entertaining area will be more important in China than in Korea. Besides, Applying advanced Korean Hypermaret`s customer policy to Chinese consumers will help to get higher reliability and to differentiate themselves to other competitors. However, as personal interaction, physical aspect, promotions were proved as not significant for the level of CS in China, Korean companies need to reconsider the priority order of resource allocations when they tap into Chinese market.

  • PDF

A Study on Satisfaction and Evaluation of Students현 Spot-Practice in Department of Food and Nutrition (식품영양학과 학생들의 현장실습 만족도 및 평가도에 관한 연구)

  • 최미경;전예숙;홍원주;김순경;김동희;김애정;강명화;김미현
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
    • /
    • v.33 no.2
    • /
    • pp.373-380
    • /
    • 2004
  • The purpose of this study was to estimate satisfaction and evaluation degree of students' spot-practice in department of food and nutrition and to investigate relating factors to them for development of spot-practice Programme. The survey for analysis was conducted through the questionnaires to 229 students finished internship. Proportions of the students were 93.9% for senior, 93.9% for female. Proportions of spot-practice facilities were 38.9%, 46.7%, and 14.4% for school, business & industry, and hospital respectively. The major part of subjects (83.8%) took part in spot-practice during 2 weeks. The satisfaction scores to spot-practice were the lowest for pay, and the highest for a kind of spot-practice facilities. The evaluation scores were the lowest for 'I made a plan and prepared my work in advanced', and the highest for 'I did my best for doing my work'. The satisfaction score in hospital was significantly lower than those in school or business & industry. The satisfaction score in self-operated foodservice was significantly higher than that in contract managed one. However, there no significant differences in evaluation scores by foodsevice employment type. In the case of coincidence of area in spot-practice and residence, or facilities of spot-practice and job desired, the satisfaction and evaluation scores were significantly higher than those of others. The period of spot-practice was significantly positively correlated with satisfaction scores for atmosphere of spot-practice facilities, service and treatment for spot-practice student, while negatively correlated with evaluation score for 'I did my best for doing my work'. The spot-practice pay was significantly positively correlated with satisfaction and evaluation scores for various items. In conclusion, various factors are related to satisfaction and evaluation degree of spot-practice students, and consist concern and support from college St university, foodservice institution, and government for systematic spot-Practice are required.

Factors influencing the axes of anterior teeth during SWA on masse sliding retraction with orthodontic mini-implant anchorage: a finite element study (교정용 미니 임플랜트 고정원과 SWA on masse sliding retraction 시 전치부 치축 조절 요인에 관한 유한요소해석)

  • Jeong, Hye-Sim;Moon, Yoon-Shik;Cho, Young-Soo;Lim, Seung-Min;Sung, Sang-Jin
    • The korean journal of orthodontics
    • /
    • v.36 no.5
    • /
    • pp.339-348
    • /
    • 2006
  • Objective: With development of the skeletal anchorage system, orthodontic mini-implant (OMI) assisted on masse sliding retraction has become part of general orthodontic treatment. But compared to the emphasis on successful anchorage preparation, the control of anterior teeth axis has not been emphasized enough. Methods: A 3-D finite element Base model of maxillary dental arch and a Lingual tipping model with lingually inclined anterior teeth were constructed. To evaluate factors influencing the axis of anterior teeth when OMI was used as anchorage, models were simulated with 2 mm or 5 mm retraction hooks and/or by the addition of 4 mm of compensating curve (CC) on the main archwire. The stress distribution on the roots and a 25000 times enlarged axis graph were evaluated. Results: Intrusive component of retraction force directed postero-superiorly from the 2 mm height hook did not reduce the lingual tipping of anterior teeth. When hook height was increased to 5 mm, lateral incisor showed crown-labial and root-lingual torque and uncontrolled tipping of the canine was increased.4 mm of CC added to the main archwire also induced crown-labial and root-lingual torque of the lateral incisor but uncontrolled tipping of the canine was decreased. Lingual tipping model showed very similar results compared with the Base model. Conclusion: The results of this study showed that height of the hook and compensating curve on the main archwire can influence the axis of anterior teeth. These data can be used as guidelines for clinical application.

A Study on the Legislative Guidelines for Airline Consumer Protection (항공소비자 보호제도의 입법방향)

  • Lee, Chang-Jae
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
    • /
    • v.32 no.1
    • /
    • pp.3-51
    • /
    • 2017
  • From a historical point of view, while the Warsaw Convention was passed in 1924 to regulate the unified judicial responsibility in the global air transportation industry, protection of airline consumers was somewhat lacking in protecting air carriers. In principle, the air carrier does not bear any obligation or liability when the aircraft is not operated normally due to natural disasters such as typhoon or heavy snowfall. However, in recent years, in developed countries such as the US and Europe, there has been a movement in which regulates the air carriers' obligation to protect their passengers even if there is no misconduct or negligence. Furthermore, the legislation of such advanced countries imposes an obligation on the airlines to compensate the loss separately from damages in case the abnormal operation of the aircraft is not caused by force majeure but caused by their negligence. Under this historical and international context, Korea is also modifying the system of aviation consumer protection by referring to other foreign legislation. However, when compared with foreign countries, our norm has a few drawbacks. First, the airline's protection or care obligations are mixed with the legal liability for damages in the provision, which seems to be due to the lack of understanding of the airline's passenger protection obligation. The liability for damages, which is governed by the International Convention or the Commercial Act, shall be determined by judging the cause of the airline's liability in respect of the damage of the individual passenger in the course of the air transportation. However, the duty to care and the burden for compensation shall be granted to all passengers who feel uncomfortable with the abnormal operation regardless of the cause of the accident. Also, our compensation system for denied boarding due to oversale is too low compared to the case of foreign countries, and setting the compensation amount range differently based on the time for the re-routing is somewhat unclear. Regarding checked-baggage claim, it will be necessary to refund the fee only from the fact that the baggage is delayed without asking whether there is any damage occurred from the delayed baggage. This is the content of the duty to care, which is different from the current Commercial Act or the international convention, in which responsibility is different depending on whether the airline takes all the necessary measures in order to prevent delaying of the baggage. The content of force majeure, which is a requirement for exemption from the obligation to care passengers on the airplane, shall be reconsidered. Maintenance for safe navigation is not considered to be included in force majeure, and connection to airplanes, airport conditions are disputable. According to the EC Regulation, if the cause of the abnormal operation of the airline is force majeure, the airline's compensation obligation is exempted but the duty to care of airline company is still meaningful. Furthermore, even if the main role of aviation consumer protection is on an airline, it is the responsibility of government agencies to supervise the fulfillment of such protection obligations. Therefore, it is necessary for the Korean government to actively take measures such as enforcing incentives for airlines that faithfully fulfill their obligation to care and imposed penalties on the contrary.

  • PDF

Study on Acknowledge and State of Clinical Experience for 3-years Dental Technology Department (3년제 치기공과 임상실습에 대한 인식 및 실태조사 - 일부 치과기공소 소장을 중심으로 -)

  • Park, Myung-Ja
    • Journal of Technologic Dentistry
    • /
    • v.17 no.1
    • /
    • pp.41-57
    • /
    • 1995
  • This study was conducted to collect and analyze previous information in order to manage efficience, improve experience effect and promote employment rate. The questionnaire interview with 27 chief of dental Laboratory refered clinical experience in technology department about clinical experience in 14 Jumior colleges were also investigated. The results were summarried as follows : The portion of age of 35-39 among chief of dental Laboratory was 40.7% which was the highest, that of male was 96.3%, that of junior college graduate was 97.5%, that of 10years experience was 92.6% and that of ceramic technician was 85.2%, 63.0% dental laboratory for clinical experience was a bore space of 30pyong. Aspect of dental laboratory management, manufacturing all part of prosthetic restoration was 29.6%, othodontic appliance and ceramic restoration was 7.4%, 3.8%, each. The percentage of 40.7 was having connection with 30-3a dental clinics and referring case per day was 10-19 cases(40.7%), manufacturing time of referred prosthetic restoration was 3-4 days(77.8%), places preparing seminar room for education was 29.6%, above a place of 40pyong was 11.1% 30-34 pyong and 35-39 pyong was 7.4% each. During training of 2 years education course student, 18.5% was rack of thorough occupational career. While 44.4% will want the more salary among 3years education course student, 74.1% will expect the more dental techmicians would engaged in their field, 51.9% will hope improve of their theory and practice, 29.6% be expected better skill and 14.8% be expected better theory. Attitude of clinical experience places was distributed by 59.3% of offering only experience chance, 25.9% of wasting time and 29.0% of annoying. The big emphasis of climical experience was thorough occupational career(44.4%). The clinical experience places of our college were selected after direct visiting, so their condition of management was not that bad but most of dental laboratory were poor in management state and working environment. Therefore it is difficult to choose appropriate places and dental Laboratory are also limited manpower and time as suppliers. So that it recommended to induce flexible management of experience period by interval and rotation of experience places among college and to applicate intern-system for employment ant industry-college cooperation aspect.

  • PDF

A study on the interaction between visual perception and the body in contemporary painting space (20세기 회화공간에서 시지각과 신체의 상관성에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Kum-Hee
    • Journal of Science of Art and Design
    • /
    • v.11
    • /
    • pp.109-152
    • /
    • 2007
  • This thesis started from accepting the criticism and concretely seeking the possibility of visual visuality, in particular, visual physicality or physical visuality through the expression revealed in painting space. This study aims at stressing the role of the body in visual perception and pictorial expression by it by examining the interaction between it and the body. First of all, this study explored perception and the position of the body in the great frame of the historical stream from modernism, through minimalism, through post-minimalism to later art in order to confirm the interaction between visual perception and the body or the change in the intervention of physicality in the stream of contemporary art, and connected them with a discourse on perception and the body. It raised as the grounds for it the discussions which provided the theoretical background about perception. It dealt with the scientific discussions on perceptual physicality by Gestalt psychology in perceptive psychology, and next the discussion of Rudolf Arnheim who exemplified Gestalt psychology mainly on the dimension of visual art. It is significant in explaining the perceptual activeness which is the same as that of M. Merleau-Ponty as a primary debater to solve the questions of perceptual physicality and physical visuality. M. Merleau-Ponty set forth ambiguous perception and the body as its background as the fundamental bases for perceiving the world rather than consciousness proved explicitly. As Hal Foster said, as minimalist phenomenological background they provided appropriate theoretical background to the late art rising against modernist logic. Next, after the 1970s Frank Stella showed a working method and a tendency entirely different from those in the previous period. For example, deconstruction of frame, decentralized spatial expression, dynamic and mixed expression, and allowing real space by overlapping were judged to swing to approval of perceptual physicality. Francis Bacon's painting structure, that is, figure, triptych, aplat and a method of production by accident were understood to well reflect M. Merleau-Ponty's chair logic of chiasme. This study tries to seek the possibility of pictorial expression from works aiming at defining the question of seeing in connection with physicality, the role of the body as the body accumulated and the linking with a real, daily life as the background of the body, and confirm the phase shift.

  • PDF

The Kinematic Analysis of the Pitching motion for the Straight and Curve ball (직구와 커브 투구동작의 운동학적 비교 분석)

  • Lee, Young-Jun;Kim, Jung-Tae
    • Korean Journal of Applied Biomechanics
    • /
    • v.12 no.2
    • /
    • pp.109-130
    • /
    • 2002
  • The purpose of this paper was to make a comparative analysis for the difference of the various kinematic variation which is occurred in the each situation when pitchers throw a straight and a curve ball. Four pitchers, who are two national team players and two high level pitchers, were selected among the right over hand pitchers of D university in the Busan for this paper. The data were analyzed by using 3D equipment. The results of the analysis which was about the elapsed time of the pitching, the movement of the body center-point, the highest height of the left knee, stride length, knee joint angle, shoulder joint angle, elbow joint angle and wrist joint angle in the each section(ST, LKU, HBP, LCF, MCP, BRP) were as follows : 1. Pitching time in the each section and step in the pitching for straight and curve ball was similar. The total elapsed time of the straight and curve ball was 1.78${\pm}$0.07sec and 1.77${\pm}$0.11sec in the order. 2. The position change of the body center to the Z(above below) direction did not show significant difference in the each situation of the section and step between pitching for the straight and curve ball. 3. Height of the left knee did not show significant difference as 125.38${\pm}$11.85cm and 124.95${\pm}$11.63m in the each pitching motion for straight and curve ball. The rate(%H) between height and stride length showed 68.42${\pm}$5.53(%H), 68.40${\pm}$5.45(%H) in the each pitching motion. 4. Pitching for curve ball showed longer stride length than pitching for straight ball that as the stride length was 140.35${\pm}$4.96cm and 144.8${\pm}$1.69cm. The rate(%H) between height and stride length showed 76.9${\pm}$3.77(%H), 79.39${\pm}$2.23(%H) in the each pitching motion. 5. Left knee joint angle did not show significant difference in the ST, LKU and HBP section in the each pitching motion. However, it was shown that knee joint angle was flexed much more in the LFC, MCP and BRP section in the pitching for curve ball. 6. Right shoulder joint angle did not show significant difference in the ST, LKU and HSP section. However, when pitches threw a curve ball in the LKU section. In the LFC section, the right shoulder joint angle was extended much more in the pitching for curve ball, and the angle was extended much in the MCP and BRP section in the pitching for curve ball than straight ball. 7. Right elbow joint angle did not show significant difference in the ST, LKU and HRP section in the two pitching motion. The angle had more flexion in the LFC and MCP section in the pitching for curve ball than the pitching for straight ball. The angle in the each pitching motion for straight ball and curve ball were extended by a narrow margin in the BRP section. 8. Right wrist joint angle was extended much more in the LFC and MCP section in the pitching for curve ball. In the BRP section, the angle was extended much more in the pitching for straight ball than curve ball.

Analysis of the Radiation Therapy Outcomes and Prognostic Factors of Thymoma (흉선종에 대한 방사선치료 성적 및 예후인자분석)

  • Lee, Seok-Ho;Lee, Kyu-Chan;Choi, Jin-Ho;Lee, Jae-Ik;Sym, Sun-Jin;Cho, Eun-Kyung
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
    • /
    • v.28 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-8
    • /
    • 2010
  • Purpose: This retrospective study was performed to evaluate the efficacy of radiation therapy (RT) and to investigate the prognostic factors for thymoma when treated with RT. Materials and Methods: We analyzed 21 patients with thymoma and also received RT from March 2002 to January 2008. The median follow-up time was 37 months (range, 3 to 89 months). The median patient age was 57 years (range, 24 to 77 years) and the gender ratio of males to females was 4:3. Of the 21 patients, complete resections (trans-sternal thymectomy) and R2 resections were performed in 14 and 1 patient, respectively. A biopsy was performed in 6 patients (28.7%). The WHO cell types in the 21 patients were as follows: 1 patient (4.8%) had type A, 10 patients (47.6%) had type B1-3, and 10 patients (47.6%) had type C. Based on Masaoka staging, 10 patients (47.6%) were stage II, 7 patients (33.3%) were stage III, and 4 patients (19.1%) were stage IVa. Three-dimensional RT was adminstered to the tumor volume (planned target volume), including the anterior mediastinum and the residual disease. The total RT dose ranged from 52.0 to 70.2 Gy (median dose, 54 Gy). Consistent with the WHO criteria, the response rate was only analyzed for the 6 patients who received a biopsy only. The prognostic factors analyzed for an estimate of survival included age, gender, tumor size, tumor pathology, Masaoka stage, the possibility of treatment by performing surgery, the presence of myasthenia gravis, and RT dose. Results: The 3-year overall survival rate (OS) and the progression free survival rate (PFS) were 80.7% and 78.2%, respectively. Among the 10 patients with WHO cell type C, 3 of 4 patients (75%) who underwent a complete resection and 3 of 6 patients (50%) who underwent a biopsy survived. Distant metastasis developed in 4 patients (19.1%). The overall response rate in the 6 patients who received biopsy only were as follows: partial remission in 4 patients (66.7%), stable disease in 1 patient (16.6%), and progressive disease in 1 patient (16.6%). Acute RTOG radiation pneumonitis occurred in 1 patient (4.8%), grade 2 occurred in 2 patients (9.5%), grade 3 occurred in 1 patient (4.8%), and grade 4 occurred in 1 patient (4.8%). A univariate analysis revealed that the significant prognostic factors for OS were age (${\geq}60$, 58.3%; <60, 100%; p=0.0194), pathology (WHO cell type A-B3, 100%; C, 58.3%; p=0.0194) and, whether the patient underwent surgery (yes, 93.3%; no, 50%; p=0.0096). Conclusion: For the 15 patients who received surgery, there was no local failure within the radiation field. In patients with WHO cell type C, surgical procedures could have resulted in a more favorable outcome than biopsy alone. We report here our clinical experience in 21 patients with thymoma who were treated by radiation therapy.