• Proceedings of the Population Association of Korea Conference
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• 2006.12a
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• pp.193-230
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• 2006

본 논문은 국가별 추계인구와 미래 9개년 인구관련 설명변수들의 추정값을 통하여 적정인구 모형을 구형하고 한국의 적정인구를 추정하는데 목적이 있다. 후생을 고려한 생산함수 확장모형, 세계 176개국의 표본자료 그리고 다중회귀분석을 이용하여 $2000{\sim}2300$년 한국의 적정인구를 추정하고 그 추세곡선을 나타내는 것이다. 모형의 종속변수는 UN에 의한 세계각국의 추계인구이고, 설명변수는 9개 변수 즉 PPP GDP, 인접지역 경제통합율, 교육수준, 영어구사비율, 국토유효면적, 에너지량, 기온, 수자원량, 무역거리이다. 연구결과는 다음과 같다. $2000{\sim}2300$년 한국의 적정인구는 $4,350{\sim}4,950$만명으로 추정되며, 2000년${\sim}$2050년은 $4,700{\sim}5,010$만명, 2050년${\sim}2100$년은 $4,770{\sim}4,400$만명이 된다. 2125년 최저점 4,350만명을 통과한 후 점진적으로 2300년의 4,870만명으로 접근해 갈 것으로 추정된다. 연구결과의 시사점은 네 가지이다. 첫째 한국의 적정인구가 2125년을 기준으로 이전은 감소 이후는 증가 추세일 것이므로 정책결정시 적정한 목표인구를 설정해야 한다는 점이다. 둘째 현 추세로 진행되면 2050년 이후 적정인구가 추계인구보다 $500{\sim}600$만명 더 많아진다는 점이다. 셋째 2125년 이전의 적정인구는 좁게 $4,770{\sim}4,545$만명으로서, 출산율 향상을 통한 적정인구의 유지 노력이 필요하다는 점이다. 넷째 적정인구 추세의 기복은 출산기피로 인한 인구감소 때문으로 출산지원과 입양 및 이민 유입의 정책에 따라 변화될 수 있다는 점이다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2021.06a
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• pp.42-42
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• 2021

한강 자연성 회복은 사회환경을 고려한 한강의 생태적 기능회복과 복원, 자연의 복원력을 기반으로 한 사람이 공생 공존하는 새로운 관계로의 전환점을 의미하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 한강 유역권 산·학·연 관계자 100명을 대상으로 설문조사를 실시하여 한강 자연성 회복 비전과 추진전략을 도출한 결과, '맑은 물이 흐르는 강'(1순위), '더불어 사는 강'(2순위), '생명이 숨쉬는 강'(3순위), '살아 움직이는 강'(4순위)으로 정책방향을 수립할 수 있었다. 또한 설문조사의 결과를 바탕으로 AHP 및 델파이 분석을 통해 한강 상류, 중류(서울권, 경기권), 하류별 자연성 회복 평가지표간 가중치를 산정하여 주요 추진과제를 선정하였다. 상류유역에서는 비점오염원 관리를 통한 환경오염 감소, 중류 유역에서는 도심하천의 수질관리강화 및 물 순환 체계 개선, 하류 유역에서는 생물다양성 확보 및 상·하류 지역 협력을 통한 상수원 수질 개선의 방안 필요의 결과가 도출되었다. 본 연구를 통하여 한강의 하천관리정책은 이수·치수 중심의 하천조성에서 하천생태복원 및 강과 사람과의 공존과 공생이 조화를 이룬 하천조성으로 관점이 변화되었음을 확인할 수 있었으며, 가중치 평가를 통한 최적 조합의 하천 관리방안이 도출되었다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.71-71
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• 2022

국내 물시장은 100%에 가까운 상·하수도 서비스 수준을 달성한 지 오래다. 결과적으로 국내 물시장은 한계에 이르렀다는 평가와 함께 국내 물산업의 지속가능한 발전을 위해서는 포화된 국내 시장을 벗어나 해외 신시장을 발굴해야 한다는 견해가 보편적이다.. 그리고 정부에서는 2006년 물산업 육성 전략을 수립하는 한편 국내 물기업의 해외시장 진출을 위해 다각적인 정책을 수립·추진하고 있다. 이에 본 연구는 지역별·국가별 특성을 고려한 물시장 진출 전략의 필요성 관점에서 타겟시장으로 주목을 받고 있는 국가 사우디아라비아의 물시장 특성을 검토함으로써 국내 기업의 현지 진입 전략을 제시하였다. 사우디아라비아 정부는 '비전 2030'에 의거 시설 및 서비스 확대, 민간참여 등 물 부문의 성과목표를 제시하였으며, 물시장 규모는 2021년 기준 116억 $ 규모로 추정된다 추정된다(GWI, 2021). 현지 물시장 관련 SWOT 분석 결과는 인프라와 담수화 분야에 대한 지속적 투자 및 시장 개방화, 그리고 다수의 레퍼런스 보유 등이 기회이자 강점인 반면 오일머니 중심의 산업구조, 정부 중심의 투자, 높은 시장경쟁 등은 약점이자 위기로 분석되었다. 그리고 본 연구는 현지 물시장 진입 전략으로 첫째, 현지 정부 및 기업과의 협력 강화를 통한 정보취득, 둘째, 향후 성장 가능성이 높은 담수화 관련 에너지 효율 제고, 막힘현상(파울링) 등에 대한 혁신 기술 및 가격경쟁력 확보, 셋째, 프로젝트 수주, 소재·부품 등의 수출을 위한 현지화(지사, 사무소, 연구소 등 개설) 등을 제시하였다.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.34 no.5
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• pp.723-734
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• 2021

Wind energy is one of the rapidly developing renewable energies which is being developed and invested in response to climate change. As renewable energy policies and power plant installations are promoted, the supply of wind power in Korea is gradually expanding and attempts to accurately predict demand are expanding. In this paper, the ARIMA and ARIMAX models which are Time series techniques and the SVR, Random Forest and XGBoost models which are machine learning models were compared and analyzed to predict wind power generation in the Jeonnam and Gyeongbuk regions. Mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used as indicators to compare the predicted results of the model. After subtracting the hourly raw data from January 1, 2018 to October 24, 2020, the model was trained to predict wind power generation for 168 hours from October 25, 2020 to October 31, 2020. As a result of comparing the predictive power of the models, the Random Forest and XGBoost models showed the best performance in the order of Jeonnam and Gyeongbuk. In future research, we will try not only machine learning models but also forecasting wind power generation based on data mining techniques that have been actively researched recently.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.3-24
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• 2000

The provability of major oil spill acidents around Korean coast is very high due to increase of sea traffic and decrease of quality of ships crews and increase of the old-ship. The Strategies of establishment of a advanced response management system against this mass pollution incident are as follows;. 1. Development of Regional Contingency Plan, which is scientifically illuminated, in order to implement the National Contingency Plan efficiently. 2. Early completion of a national response capability twenty thousand tons. 3. To strengthen training and exorcise specialized in the field of marine pollution response. 4. Establishment of a system of response cooperation among neighbor countries by promoting the NOWPAP tasks etc. The response policy in the 21th century should be concentrated to promote a practicle response capability through response operation scientifically specialized and internationalized by establishing the advanced response system early.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
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• v.48 no.2
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• pp.259-285
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• 2014

Public policies in regard to developing reading culture programs and the contents, and in running public libraries have been used to overcome existing social issues such as regional self-centeredness and cultural lagging. It means that public libraries are playing an important role to encourage communications within local communities. The purpose of this research is therefore to analyze the concept of local community, and develop reading culture and contents to reinforce the concept. This research also targeted to analyze the required contents in reading culture. Through the case study of "G" city, the research analyzed their citizenship and sense of local community and the requests. As a result, the requited subjects were for economics, unemployment, poverty, aging, and housing order. For the subjects of environment were environment pollution and energy order. For the subjects of human rights, disabilities, and multi-cultural were requested. For the subject of education, school violence, tutoring, and truly teaching were requested. Based on the requirements, 221 items of reading lists, DVD clips, and abstracts are developed as well as 4 programs of reading culture.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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• v.1 no.2
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• pp.5-19
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• 1998

This attempts to study the change of land use pattern and to (md out the factors to impact the change of the pattern in metropolitan area of Seoul. The data are collected from the 9 units of geomorphological map of the study area with the help of Mapinfo techniques. The data are analyzed statistically with aids of SAS programs. Land use patterns are classified into two: rural and urban and population, urbanization, transportation, industrialization and land development programs are selected as independent variables to change the land use patterns from 1960-1990. The results may be summarized as follows : (1) Arable lands consisted of 30% of the total land in 1960 but the ratio of the arable land decreased to less than 25% in 1990 in the study area. (2) Urban land use types are dominant around southern part of Seoul but rural one are dominant around northern and eastern area of Seoul. (3) Rural type are influenced by population factor but urban land use type are related to transportation and population factors. Land development program is not a significant one to impact the land use pattern in the study area.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.61-73
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• 2010

This research is to analyze reasons for violation of the Self Carfree day policy. It also analyzes satisfaction of the policy participation incentives. The results are that the violation rate is increasing if the drivers live in a zone which is highly energy consuming, which has low potential demand per bus stop and low trip generation per number of houses, which therefore requires more bus routes and bus services, and in which the drivers pay more car operating fees and show less tendancy towards participation even with the 5-10% oil price increase. The results are significant at the 0.05 level.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.297-323
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• 2010

The distinguished feature of the economic relationship between China and Africa during the cold war is the one that there was economic point of view at all even though such a huge trade between the two countries. It was caused by purely ideological and political purpose of China. because of the giant stream of time which is called as 'the cold war', it has been replaced with other conceptions: 'aid' or 'support.' Since the end of the cold war, however, the relationship between China and Africa has been showing noticeable features; political and ideological purposes are getting less meaningful or excluded completely. In 1990, China was based on the pragmatism, which is a rigorous sense of economy, and Africa was getting popular as an emerging market, which is not only performing as a stable energy supplier but also making trade and direct investment is possible. Also, it has implications for Korea that seriously considers putting more efforts into expanding its influence on all over the trade relations which includes investment and import-export in the emerging market: Africa.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.11 no.10
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• pp.419-429
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• 2013

The Wireless sensor network(WSN) consisting of a large number of sensors aims to gather data in a variety of environments. The sensor nodes operate on battery of limited power. so, To extend network life time is major goals of research in the WSN. In this paper, we state the key point of a energy consumption with minimum&load balancing. The proposed protocol guarantee balance of number of cluster member nodes using the node memory threshold and optimization of distribution of cluster head using the optimized clustering method. The results show that the proposed protocol could support the load balancing and high energy efficiency by distributing the clusters with a reasonable number of member nodes. The simulation results show that our schme ensure longer life time in WSN as compare with existing schemes such as LEACH and CBLM.