• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
• /
• v.26 no.4
• /
• pp.519-547
• /
• 2017

This paper explores whether it is better to forecast city gas demand in Korea using national level data directly or, alternatively, construct forecasts from regional demand models and then aggregate these regional forecasts. In the regional model, we consider gas demand for Seoul metropolitan and the other local areas. Our forecast evaluation exercise for 2013-2016 shows the regional forecast model generally outperforms the national forecasting model. This result comes from the fact that the dynamic properties of each region's gas demands can be better taken into account in the regional demand model. More specifically, the share of residential gas demand in the Seoul metropolitan area is above 50%, and subsequently this demand is heavily influenced by temperature fluctuations. Conversely, the dominant portion of regional gas demand is due to industrial gas consumption. Moreover, electricity is regarded as a substitute for city gas in the residential sector, and industrial gas competes with certain oil products. Our empirical results show that a regional demand forecast model can be an effective alternative to the demand model based on nation-wide gas consumption and that regional information about gas demand is also useful for analyzing sectoral gas consumption.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
• /
• v.33 no.1
• /
• pp.59-86
• /
• 2024

Recently, research on city gas demand is increasing by reflecting the characteristics of each region. The similarity of the social structure of the adjacent region and the density of the supply infrastructure induce spatial correlation with the clustering that has a microscopic relationship between regions. Accordingly, as a result of analyzing the spatial correlation after dividing the demand for city gas for civilian use into a total of 54 regions based on the jurisdiction of 34 city gas companies, it was confirmed that there was a positive spatial correlation from a global and local perspective. In this study, the demand for city gas for civilian use for 54 regions from January 2014 to December 2022 was composed of panel data, and the spatial panel regression analysis and the general panel regression analysis were compared, and it was found that the spatial error model (SEM) was the most suitable model. This presents policy and practical implications by confirming that the demand for city gas for civilian use in one region has a significant relationship with the adjacent region.

• Korean Chemical Engineering Research
• /
• v.56 no.6
• /
• pp.841-855
• /
• 2018

The purpose of this study is to estimate the available potential heat source for heat pump in the district heating supply area in the city. Unused energy potentials were estimated and integrated based on open source based data. In particular, geographical spatial analysis of recoverable heat energy density and heat demand in the heat source area of large retailers and public sauna facilities in the DH network located in the southern part of the metropolitan area (Pyeongtaek-si) was conducted. As a result of the study, the DH network area had a total potential energy of 1,741.7 toe/year for the two heat sources of large retailers and public saunas. It is estimated that 1,006.9 toe/year, which is 57.8% of the total, can be linked to the district heating. The large retailers showed a positive correlation with the floor area and energy use of 0.4937. The recoverable energy intensity was estimated to be $0.0017toe/m^2$ per unit area and $0.0069tCO_2/m^2$ for greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, public saunas were analyzed by comparing the empirical case with the theoretical calculation, and it was estimated that energy conservation estimate of 80% was $0.0315toe/m^2$ per bath area and $0.1183tCO_2/m^2$ for greenhouse gas emissions. The total potential energy amount of this area was positively correlated with the heat demand of apartment house by administrative district, and it was confirmed that it had a relatively high potential energy especially in traffic and commercial center.

• Analytical Science and Technology
• /
• v.13 no.4
• /
• pp.453-465
• /
• 2000

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were produced by thermoreaction (incompletely combustion) of organic compounds such as fuel, gasoline, diesel etc, and were known the strong carcinogenic compounds. In our country, a study for health risk assessment of PAHs in air were needed according to rapidly increasing of motor vehicle and progressing to industrial country. In this study, concentrations of PAHs in 263 air samples of fourteen sites-Seoul, Pusan, etc-according to four times sampling for one year are measured by GC/MSD for basic research for health risk assessment. As the result, 14 PAHs are detected in all samples and annual average concentration of total PAHs was $28.72ng/m^3$ and highest average concentration of total PARs was $47.76ng/m^3$ in winter season. The concentrations of total PAHs are proportioned to amount of extracted organic material (EOM). The average concentration of total PAHs in EOM was 0.28%.