• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.29 no.5
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• pp.139-155
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• 2011

This study is to estimate the dynamic change of the regional railway passenger traffic and, based on the estimated, to forecast the future regional railway passenger traffic by using the Seasonal ARIMA model. The existing studies using ARIMA failed to consider seasonality nor the monthly or the quarterly data. It was attempted in this study to use the monthly regional railway passenger traffic data to propose a model that estimates dynamic change of demand. The authors employed the Seasonal ARIMA model previously developed and used (1) the numbers of monthly passenger data and (2) the monthly passenger-km data. The test results showed that the numbers of passengers in 2015 and 2020 would increase by 36% and 71%, respectively, compared to those in 2008. The numbers of passenger-kms in 2015 and 2020 would increase by 25% and 78%, respectively, compared to those in 2008.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.302-308
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• 2009

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of intercity rail passengers' and travel patterns based on the 2001 Seoul-Busan rail passengers' Travel Survey. Results representing personal characteristics such as age and income seem to affect on destination the income was not seen to be a critical effect on destination choice. The variables such as travel time, transfer status, and date for travel seem to be and recreation activity. However, the destination choice would be relationship between Seoul and all four destination cities. The insights gained of an activity-based rail travel demand model.

• Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.39-49
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• 2016

The main objective of this paper is to analyze university students' modal shift for commuting trip due to the introduction of new urban rail transit in a satellite city of metropolitan area. The paper uses SP(2011)/RP(2013) data collected from Yeungnam University in Gyeongsan City, which is a satellite city of Deagu Metropolitan City. So far few researches, especially using before-and-after individual SP/RP travel survey, have been conducted on analyzing university students' modal shift due to the introduction of new urban rail transit. For this research, some descriptive statistical analyses were conducted. Furthermore, some empirical logit models were estimated for analyzing factors affecting the modal shift. Finally, some important findings and policy implications are discussed. The significant findings from this research are summarized as follows. From the descriptive statistical analyses of SP and RP data, it is found that the rate of modal shift to rail transit is relatively high especially for bus travellers. Furthermore, from the empirical SP model estimation, it is found that time saving is the most important factor affecting the modal shift to urban rail transit. On the other hand, from the empirical RP model estimation, it is found that residential location is the most important factor affecting the modal shift to urban rail transit.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.25 no.5
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• pp.111-122
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• 2007

This paper investigates the rail service patterns by train class. The emphasis in intercity rail planning is to more efficiently use of existing station facilities. Rail transit operations are affected by the system layout and ridership patterns and by work rules. Operations are also influenced by past practices and the institutional setting. Main factors to decide train service patterns are the location, socioeconomic characteristics, land use and travel demand of the station. In this context, the travel demand of intercity rail station is of crucial significance. Tests on a KTX case shows that train service frequency can be efficiently decreased in weekday to transport the same passenger demand. The work has shown many subjects that need further research including various factors influencing on train frequency. This study serves the railroad authorities in planning and determining business strategy in the increasingly competitive environment of regional rail transport.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.30 no.6
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• pp.59-70
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• 2012

The relative importance of leisure trip has been increased after adopting the five-day workweek system and considering the higher income level. Thus, the value of travel time for intercity leisure trips should be estimated to conduct a reasonable benefit/cost analysis for railway construction projects. In this paper, the value of travel time was estimated separately for each trip purpose such as business, leisure, and other non-business than leisure. The estimated values of leisure travel time ranged from 5,310 to 14,185 (won/hr) by altering travel mode, and were increased by 42-107% when comparing with those of non-business travel time. Besides, how to apply the value of intercity leisure travel time for B/C analysis of railway projects was suggested. For the construction case of a railway connecting Chuncheon and Sokcho, the estimated benefit was increased by 2.3%.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.243-250
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• 2016

As sustainable growth has been emphasized in the field of transportation, the railway system has been promoted as an environmentally-friendly transport mode. However, mode shifts from other transport modes to railway have been sluggish. In this context, to enhance the understanding of railway's competitive advantages and disadvantages, this research evaluates travelers'preferences for public transport modes for inter-regional trips: such understanding should make it possible to formulate effective policy for promoting railways. To this end, passenger recognition of competitive transport modes has been measured by applying multidimensional scaling analysis for six major inter-regional public transport services - KTX, ITX-Samaeul, Mugunghwa-ho, premium express bus, general express bus, and airline. As a result, we can conceptualize the recognition similarity in two-dimensional space, and understand how travelers perceive the six major transport modes.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.87-96
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• 2016

The multinomial logit model, based on random utility maximization (RUM) theory, has been the predominant model used in travel mode choice contexts. In this paper, the travel mode choice model based on random regret minimization (RRM) theory is proposed as an alternative to the RUM model, and the applicability of the RRM model is examined. The presented model is applied to the case of inter-city travel mode choice in Korea. The empirical results show that the RUM model and RRM model have parameters that are consistent with the intuition. The goodness of fit statistics in the RRM model improved compared with the results of the RUM model. Consequently, these results show the possibility of using the RRM model in the context of travel mode choice.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.32 no.6D
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• pp.679-686
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• 2012

KTX step 1 April 2004, after the opening, the second phase of the project was opened in November 2010. High-speed rail after the opening and continue to increase the demand of high-speed rail, Have the speed of competitive advantage compared too the means of transportation. The opening of these high-speed rail has led to changes of the move, the company's position, and the spatial structure of the population of reorganization, such as the social, economic, transportation. In this study, survey data using the High Speed Rail Station EMME/2 of the program to take advantage of the 2-Dimentional Blancing trip distribution to investigate the passage through the trip distribution by the estimation of the parameters of the model to estimate the distribution of the means of access and high-speed rail station to reproduce and Analysis of the results by means of access parameters (${\theta}$) autos 0.0395, buses 0.0390, subway 0.0650, taxi 0.0415, the frequency distribution (Trip Length Frequency Distribution: TLFD) were analyzed survey data value model with the results of comparing $R^2$ cars analysis and model values similar survey data 0.909 bus 0.923, subway 0.745 to 0.922, taxi, F test P value analysis is smaller than 0.05 at the 95% confidence level as a note that was judged to have been. Trip frequency distribution analysis, but in the future, set the unit to 5km-trip frequency distribution middle zone Units from small zone units (administrative district) segmentation research is needed, and can reflect the trip distance 0~5 km interval combined function to take advantage of the gravity model and the 3-Dimentional Blancing applied research is needed to be considered.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2010.06a
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• pp.2270-2277
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• 2010

Recently the role of a railroad is emphasized as the imprortant part for growth for the low carbon green growth and the social consensus about the railroad investment is actively progressed. The various social economic value in which the travel demand change over of the environment-friendly railroad system can bring becomes with public debate as much as a discussion is not any more necessary. In this research, the influence that it recognized that the travel time improvement by the high speed rail was the most important element among many method that it can increase the railroad use efficiency in which it connects the interregional major cities and the railway travel time improvement reaches to the rate of railway and road travel time, and the environment like the carbon emission quantity was comprehensively inquired.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.33 no.6
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• pp.575-583
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• 2015

The Korea Transport Institute (KOTI) builds the origin and destination(O-D) trip data with relatively smaller zone size such as Eup, Myeon, Dong administration unit districts in metropolitan area. Otherwise, O-D trip data was built by bigger size of traffic analysis zone(TAZ) such as Si, Gun, Gu administration unit districts for rural area. In some cases, it is needed to divide a zone into several sub-zones for rural area in order to analyze travel distribution pattern in detail for a certain highway and rail project. The study suggested a method to estimate O-D trips for sub-zones in the larger-size zones in rural area. Two different distribution models, direct demand model and gravity model, were calibrated for sub-zone's intra-zonal O-D trip pattern with metropolitan area O-D data which has smaller zone-size (sub-zone) data categorized by low, middle and high population density. The calibration results were compared between the two models. The gravity model with impedance function of power functional form was selected with better explanation for all groups in the metropolitan area. The adjusted $R^2$ was 0.7426, 0.6456 and 0.7194 for low, middle and high population density group, respectively. The suggested O-D trip estimating method is expected to produce enhanced trip patterns with sub-divided small zones.