• Title/Summary/Keyword: 지수 포함확률

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A Study on the Relation of Rebar Corrosion Rate and the Strength Reliability Index of RC Slab Decks having Chloride Contamination (염해 손상을 받는 RC 교량 바닥판의 강도 신뢰성 지수와 철근 부식도 등급과의 관계 연구)

  • Cha, Chul-Jun;Park, Mi-Yun;Cho, Hyo-Nam
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.121-128
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    • 2005
  • This study focuses on evaluating the reliability index of a deck of RC slab having chloride contamination and studying the relation of grades of rebar corrosion and the reliability index of a bridge deck For this purpose, first, the failure probability related to flexural strength was calculated using a model for deterioration, which contains the application of deicing salts that usually causes significant long-term deterioration and reduction in the structural safety for strength of structure. And also, according to the depth of covering, the chloride contents depending on time due to depths of RC slab deck, the appearance time for initial corrosion of rebar and the occurrence time for split of covering were investigated using a MCS method.

An Analysis of the Software defect density based on components size (소프트웨어 컴포넌트 규모에 의한 소프트웨어 결함 밀도의 평가)

  • 이재기;남상식;김창봉
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea TC
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    • v.41 no.8
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    • pp.69-78
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    • 2004
  • In this paper, we estimated the exact software defect density to build up a suitable model that is closely related to the size of module in the probability model proposed by MD (Malaiya and Denton). To put it concretely, we predict that the software defect density using some practical data sets that are the outcomes from the system test performed our three projects for the types of distribution (exponential and geometric), per a unit of module, and the size of source line that have been recommended by KLOC(kilo-line-of-code). Then, we make comparison between our proposed defect density model and those examined real data.

Development of the National Integrated Daily Weather Index (DWI) Model to Calculate Forest Fire Danger Rating in the Spring and Fall (봄철과 가을철의 기상에 의한 전국 통합 산불발생확률 모형 개발)

  • Won, Myoungsoo;Jang, Keunchang;Yoon, Sukhee
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.348-356
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    • 2018
  • Most of fires were human-caused fires in Korea, but meteorological factors are also big contributors to fire behavior and its spread. Thus, meteorological factors as well as topographical and forest factors were considered in the fire danger rating systems. This study aims to develop an advanced national integrated daily weather index(DWI) using weather data in the spring and fall to support forest fire prevention strategy in South Korea. DWI represents the meteorological characteristics, such as humidity (relative and effective), temperature and wind speed, and we integrated nine logistic regression models of the past into one national model. One national integrated model of the spring and fall is respectively $[1+{\exp}\{-(2.706+(0.088^*T_{mean})-(0.055^*Rh)-(0.023^*Eh)-(0.014^*W_{mean}))\}^{-1}]^{-1}$, $[1+{\exp}\{-(1.099+(0.117^*T_{mean})-(0.069^*Rh)-(0.182^*W_{mean}))\}^{-1}]^{-1}$ and all weather variables significantly (p<0.01) affected the probability of forest fire occurrence in the overall regions. The accuracy of the model in the spring and fall is respectively 71.7% and 86.9%. One integrated national model showed 10% higher accuracy than nine logistic regression models when it is applied weather data with 66 random sampling in forest fire event days. These findings would be necessary for the policy makers in the Republic of Korea for the prevention of forest fires.

Influence of Joint Distribution of Wave Heights and Periods on Reliability Analysis of Wave Run-up (처오름의 신뢰성 해석에 대한 파고_주기결합분포의 영향)

  • Lee Cheol-Eung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.178-187
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    • 2005
  • A reliability analysis model f3r studying the influence of joint distribution of wave heights and periods on wave un-up is presented in this paper. From the definition of failure mode related to wave run-up, a reliability function may be formulated which can be considered uncertainties of water level. In particular, the reliability analysis model can be directly taken into account statistical properties and distributions of wave periods by considering wave period in the reliability function to be a random variable. Also, variations of wave height distribution conditioned to mean wave periods can be taken into account correctly. By comparison of results of additional reliability analysis using extreme distributions with those resulted from joint distribution of wave height and periods, it is found that probabilities of failure evaluated by the latter is larger than those by the former. Although the freeboard of sloped-breakwater structures can be determined by extreme distribution based on the long-term measurements, it may be necessary to investigate additionally into wave run-up by using the present reliability analysis model formulated to consider joint distribution of a single storm event. In addition, it may be found that the effect of spectral bandwidth parameter on reliability index may be little, but the effect of wave height distribution conditioned to mean wave periods is straightforward. Therefore, it may be confirmed that effects of wave periods on the probability of failure of wave run-up may be taken into account through the conditional distribution of wave heights. Finally, the probabilities of failure with respect to freeboard of sloped-breakwater structures can be estimated by which the rational determination of crest level of sloped-breakwater structures may be possible.

A Residual Ionospheric Error Model for Single Frequency GNSS Users in the Korean Region (한국지역에서의 단일주파수 GNSS 사용자를 위한 전리층 잔류 오차 모델 개발)

  • Yoon, Moonseok;Ahn, Jongsun;Joo, Jung -Min
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.194-202
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    • 2021
  • Ionosphere, one of the largest error sources, can pose potentially harmful threat to single-frequency GNSS (global navigation satellite system) user even after applying ionospheric corrections to their GNSS measurements. To quantitatively assess ionospheric impacts on the satellite navigation-based applications using simulation, the standard deviation of residual ionospheric errors is needed. Thus, in this paper, we determine conservative statistical quantity that covers typical residual ionospheric errors for nominal days. Extensive data-processing computes TEC (total electron content) estimates from GNSS measurements collected from the Korean reference station networks. We use Klobuchar model as a correction to calculate residual ionospheric errors from TEC (total electron content) estimate. Finally, an exponential delay model for residual ionospheric errors is presented as a function of local time and satellite elevation angle.

Comparison Study on the Various Forms of Scale Parameter for the Nonstationary Gumbel Model (다양한 규모매개변수를 이용한 비정상성 Gumbel 모형의 비교 연구)

  • Jang, Hanjin;Kim, Sooyoung;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.48 no.5
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    • pp.331-343
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    • 2015
  • Most nonstationary frequency models are defined as the probability models containing the time-dependent parameters. For frequency analysis of annual maximum rainfall data, the Gumbel distribution is generally recommended in Korea. For the nonstationary Gumbel models, the time-dependent location and scale parameters are defined as linear and exponential relationship, respectively. The exponentially time-varying scale parameter of nonstationary Gumbel model is generally used because the scale parameter should be positive. However, the exponential form of scale parameter occasionally provides overestimated quantiles. In this study, various forms of time-varying scale parameters such as exponential, linear, and logarithmic forms were proposed and compared. The parameters were estimated based on the method of maximum likelihood. To compare the accuracy of each scale parameter, Monte Carlo simulation was performed for various conditions. Additionally, nonstationary frequency analysis was conducted for the sites which have more than 30 years data with a trend in rainfall data. As a result, nonstationary Gumbel model with exponentially time-varying scale parameter generally has the smallest root mean square error comparing with another forms.

A survey on the Minimum Time Scale by Southern Region of the Korean Peninsula for Daily SPI Application (일 단위 SPI 적용을 위한 한반도 남부지역별 최소 시간 척도 조사)

  • Chae Lim Lee;Ji Yu Seo;Jeong Eun Won;Sang Dan Kim
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.328-328
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    • 2023
  • 표준강수지수(Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI)는 강수량 변동의 정도를 표준화하여 나타낸 지수로, 가뭄 평가에 적용되고 있다. 일반적으로 SPI를 산정할 때는 월 단위의 시간 척도를 적용하며, 장기간의 가뭄에 대해 평가한다. 그러나 시간 척도가 길어질수록 가뭄 발생 후 가뭄을 감지하는 데 걸리는 시간이 더 길어지기 때문에 대처가 더욱 어려워진다. 또한, 기후변화로 인해 가뭄 빈도가 증가하고, 그 정도가 더욱 심화되면서 일 단위의 적용이 필요해지고 있다. 본 연구는 한반도 남부지역을 대상으로 일 단위의 SPI 적용을 위한 최소 시간 척도를 조사하였다. 대상 지역을 강원권, 수도권, 부울경, 대경권, 호남권, 충청권의 총 6개 지역으로 분리하여, 각 지역별, 계절별 최소 시간 척도를 조사하였다. SPI 산정을 위해 후보 분포형으로 Gumbel, Gamma, GEV, Loglogistic, Lognormal, Weibull을 적용하였으며, 시간 척도는 5일부터 365일까지 총 10개로 설정하였다. 본 연구에선 크게 적합도 검정과 정규성 검정으로 진행하였다. 적합도 검정에서는 Chi-square test를 적용하였으며, 이때 일 단위의 짧은 시간 척도를 적용할 경우 누가 강수 시계열의 값이 0으로, 0값이 시계열에 포함되면 SPI의 정확도가 떨어지는 문제가 발생하는데, 이를 보완하기 위해 누가 강수 시계열의 0값을 고려하였다. 마지막으로 각 후보 분포형을 적용하여 산정된 SPI가 표준정규분포에 합당한지를 검증하기 위해 Anderson-Darling test를 수행하였다. 결과적으로 대부분의 지역에서는 봄과 여름의 경우 최소 15일 정도의 시간 척도까지는 적용할 수 있을 것으로 판단되며, 겨울의 경우는 최소 30일 정도의 시간 척도를 적용해야 함을 확인하였다. 지역별로 차이가 크진 않지만, 이러한 연구 결과를 참고하여 각 지역별로 더 나은 가뭄 대책을 마련할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

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Seismic Performance Management of Aged Road Facilities Using Deterministic Method vs. Probabilistic Method (확률론적 및 결정론적 방법을 이용한 노후도로시설물 내진성능관리)

  • Kim, Dong Joo;Choi, Ji Hye;Lee, Do Hyung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.40 no.5
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    • pp.455-463
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    • 2020
  • Road facilities with a service life of more than 30 years are expected to triple in the next ten years. The seismic performance of road facilities should be reviewed with consideration of the "Common Application of Seismic Design Standards" issued by Korea's Ministry of Public Administration and Security in 2017. These standards should be applied to all existing road facilities, including retrofitted or seismic-designed facilities, for evaluating seismic performance. In order to manage seismic performance for a large number of facilities, decision-support technology that can provide economic and reliable results is needed. However, the indices method currently used in Korea is a deterministic method, and the seismic performance of individual facilities is evaluated based on qualitative indices so that only retrofitting among road facilities is prioritized. In turn, with the indices method, it is difficult to support decisions other than the decision to prioritize retrofitting. Therefore, it is necessary to use the seismic risk assessment method to overcome such shortcomings and provide useful information such as direct loss, indirect socio-economic loss, and benefit of the investment.

Relationship between Spine Angle and Body Mass Index in Undergraduate Students (대학생의 척추측만각 및 체질량지수의 관계)

  • Park, Su-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.157-164
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    • 2017
  • This study investigated the prevalence of scoliosis among undergraduate students who were in early adulthood, and to examine its relationship with body mass index (BMI), which has been associated with scoliosis in previous studies. A descriptive survey of 158 students of universities based in Seoul, Daejeon, Daegu, and Gyeonggi Province was conducted. A structured questionnaire comprising items pertaining to general features, postural features, and BMI was used, and the angle of the trunk rotation (ATR) was measured directly with a scoliometer to assess the spinal angle. Participants with an ATR of greater than $6^{\circ}$ were classified into the scoliosis group. Data were collected for three weeks from November 7, 2014. Scoliosis and BMI were analyzed for their frequencies and percentages, and their relationships were analyzed using the ${\chi}^2$-test and Logistic regression. Overall, 114 (72.2%) participants had an ATR of smaller than $5^{\circ}$, while 44 (27.8%) had an ATR of greater than $6^{\circ}$. After excluding the confounding variables, the overweight group was 2.63 times more likely than the normal BMI group to have an ATR of greater than $6^{\circ}$ which was statistically significant. However, the underweight group was 0.24 times less likely than the normal BMI group to have an ATR of greater than $6^{\circ}$, but this difference was not statistically significant. Although early examination and management of scoliosis in South Korea is generally performed on children and adolescents, the high prevalence of scoliosis among university students found in this study calls for aggressive early examination and management for this age group as well.

A Study on the ERGM on Innopolis Start-ups Networks: Focusing on Daedeok Innopolis (연구소기업 네트워크의 ERGM 분석 연구: 대덕연구개발특구를 중심으로)

  • Jang-Won Koo;Jae-Bin Lim
    • Industry Promotion Research
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.45-58
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    • 2024
  • This study modelled the social network structure characteristics between Innopolis Start-ups located in Daejeon and Innopolis Start-ups' customers scattered across the country as a tendency of regional clustering among homogeneous technologies, and the observed values were included within the 95% confidence interval of the ERGM(Exponential Random Graph Model) analysis model. If both the research institute and the customer company are located in Yuseong-gu, Daejeon, the probability of being connected is about 13 times higher than if they are located in other administrative districts, and there is a strong tendency of connection between firms with the same technology with a negative value of assortment and homogeneity (0.1904), especially among the six technology sectors, with a P value of 0.035. There was a negative value (-0.0035) among firms not located in Yuseong-gu, with less clustering tendency. This confirms that Yuseong-gu, Daejeon, where the Daedeok Innopolis is located, is forming the centre of an innovation cluster.