• Title/Summary/Keyword: 지상기상자료

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Development of ensemble weighting technique for sequential forecasted rainfall to extend forecast precedence time (예측 선행시간 확장을 위한 순차적 예측강우 가중평균 앙상블 생성기법 개발)

  • Na, Wooyoung;Kang, Minseok;Kim, Gildo;Lee, Hyunwook;Yoo, Chulsang
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2019.05a
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    • pp.59-59
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    • 2019
  • 최근 기후변화로 인해 대류성 집중호우가 빈번하게 발생하고 있으며, 이러한 강우 특성은 산지지역에 위치한 소하천유역에 상당한 피해를 야기한다. 대류성 집중호우는 규모가 작고 속도가 빠르기 때문에 중규모 이상의 유역에서 부분적으로 상이한 강우특성을 보인다. 아울러 이러한 호우패턴의 변화는 일시적인 현상이 아닌 하나의 기상 특성으로 자리를 잡아가고 있기 때문에 이에 대한 대책마련이 더욱 필요한 실정이다. 돌발홍수 예경보시스템에 예측강우 자료는 예측 선행시간의 한계를 가진다. 즉, 예측강우 자료자체가 가지는 편의와 불확실성으로 인해 예측 선행시간이 3시간을 초과하면 신뢰도가 급격히 하락하게 된다. 이를 해결하기 위해 우리나라에서는 지상관측치와의 편의를 보정하거나 예측강우자료 자체의 품질을 개선하려는 노력을 지속하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 예측 선행시간을 확장하고자 순차적으로 생산되는 예측강우를 가중평균하여 앙상블 예측치를 모의하는 기법을 개발하였다. 각 선행시간별 예측강우자료를 앙상블 멤버로 인식하여 이들의 공분산 구조를 파악하고, 분산과 공분산 수치를 이용하여 가중치를 결정하였다. 1, 2, 3시간 예측 선행시간에 대한 확장 가능성을 확인하고자 하였고, 최적의 앙상블 멤버 개수를 결정하여 적용 및 평가하였다. 본 연구에서는 2016년과 2017년에 발생한 주요 호우사상을 선정하고, 우리나라 전역에 걸쳐 예측강우 앙상블 생성 방법론을 적용하였다. 그 결과, 가중평균 앙상블의 예측치가 예측강우장 1개, 단순평균 앙상블 예측치에 비해 좋은 품질의 예측 성능을 보였으며, 예측치의 분산 또한 감소하여 예측에 대한 불확실성이 줄어듦을 확인하였다.

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Performance Analysis on Terrain-Adaptive Clutter Map Algorithm for Ground Clutter Rejection of Weather Radar (기상 레이다의 지형 클러터 제거를 위한 지형적응 클러터 맵 알고리듬 성능분석)

  • Kim, Hye-Ri;Jung, Jung-Soo;Kwag, Young-Kil;Kim, Ji-Won;Kim, Ji-Hyeon;Ko, Jeong-Seok
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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    • v.25 no.12
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    • pp.1292-1299
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    • 2014
  • Weather radar systems can provide weather information of the ground, sea, and air in extensive spatial coverage in near real time. However, it becomes problematic when ground clutter signal exists around precipitation because strong signals of ground can cause a false precipitation report. A large percentage of land coverage of Korea consists of mountainous regions where ground clutter needs to be mitigated for more accurate prediction. Thus, it is considered necessary to introduce a new suitable ground clutter removal technique specifically adequate for Korea. In this paper, the C-Map(Clutter Map) method using raw radar signals is proposed for removing ground clutter using a terrain-adaptive clutter map. A clutter map is generated using raw radar signals(I/Q) of clear days, then it is subtracted from received radar signals in frequency domain. The proposed method is applied to the radar data acquired from Sobaeksan rain radar and the result shows that the clutter rejection ratio is about 91.17 %.

Application of Seasonal AERI Reference Spectrum for the Improvement of Cloud data Filtering Method (계절별 AERI 기준 스펙트럼 적용을 통한 구름에 영향을 받은 스펙트럼 자료 제거방법 개선)

  • Cho, Joon-Sik;Goo, Tae-Young;Shin, Jinho
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.409-419
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    • 2015
  • The Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI) which is the Fourier Transform InfraRed (FTIR) spectrometer has been operated by the National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR) in Anmyeon island, South Korea since June 2010. The ground-based AERI with similar hyper-spectral infrared sensor to satellite could be an alternative way to validate satellite-based remote sensing. In this regard, the NIMR has focused on the improvement of Cloud data Filtering Method (CFM) which employed only one reference spectrum of clear sky in winter season. This study suggests Seasonal-Cloud data Filtering Method (S-CFM) which applied seasonal AERI reference spectra. For the comparison of applied S-CFM and CFM, the methane retrievals (surface volume mixing ratio) from AERI spectra are used. The quality of AERI methane retrieval applied S-CFM was significantly more improved than that of CFM. The positive result of S-CFM is similar pattern with the seasonal variation of methane from ground-based in-situ measurement, even if the summer season's methane is retrieved over-estimation. In addition, the comparison of vertical total column of methane from AERI and GOSAT shows good result except for the summer season.

Development of Land Surface Model for Soyang river basin (소양강댐 유역에 대한 지표수문모형의 구축)

  • Lee, Jaehyeon;Cho, Huidae;Choi, Minha;Kim, Dongkyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.12
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    • pp.837-847
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    • 2017
  • Land Surface Model (LSM) was developed for the Soyang river basin located in Korean Peninsula to clarify the spatio-temporal variability of hydrological weather parameters. Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was used as a LSM. The spatial resolution of the model was 10 km and the time resolution was 1 day. Based on the daily flow data from 2007 to 2010, the 7 parameters of the model were calibrated using the Isolated Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm and the model was verified using the daily flow data from 2011 to 2014. The model showed a Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of 0.90 and a correlation coefficient of 0.95 for both calibration and validation periods. The hydrometeorological variables estimated for the Soyang river basin reflected well the seasonal characteristics of summer rainfall concentration, the change of short and shortwave radiation due to temperature change, the change of surface temperature, the evaporation and vegetation increase in the cover layer, and the corresponding change in total evapotranspiration. The model soil moisture data was compared with in-situ soil moisture data. The slope of the trend line relating the two data was 1.087 and correlation coefficient was 0.723 for the Spring, Summer and Fall season. The result of this study suggests that the LSM can be used as a powerful tool in developing precise and efficient water resources plans by providing accurate understanding on the spatio-temporal variation of hydrometeorological variables.

Spatial Gap-filling of GK-2A/AMI Hourly AOD Products Using Meteorological Data and Machine Learning (기상모델자료와 기계학습을 이용한 GK-2A/AMI Hourly AOD 산출물의 결측화소 복원)

  • Youn, Youjeong;Kang, Jonggu;Kim, Geunah;Park, Ganghyun;Choi, Soyeon;Lee, Yangwon
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.5_3
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    • pp.953-966
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    • 2022
  • Since aerosols adversely affect human health, such as deteriorating air quality, quantitative observation of the distribution and characteristics of aerosols is essential. Recently, satellite-based Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) data is used in various studies as periodic and quantitative information acquisition means on the global scale, but optical sensor-based satellite AOD images are missing in some areas with cloud conditions. In this study, we produced gap-free GeoKompsat 2A (GK-2A) Advanced Meteorological Imager (AMI) AOD hourly images after generating a Random Forest based gap-filling model using grid meteorological and geographic elements as input variables. The accuracy of the model is Mean Bias Error (MBE) of -0.002 and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.145, which is higher than the target accuracy of the original data and considering that the target object is an atmospheric variable with Correlation Coefficient (CC) of 0.714, it is a model with sufficient explanatory power. The high temporal resolution of geostationary satellites is suitable for diurnal variation observation and is an important model for other research such as input for atmospheric correction, estimation of ground PM, analysis of small fires or pollutants.

A Study on the Development of Forest Fire Occurrence Probability Model using Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index -Occurrence of Forest Fire in Kangwon Province- (캐나다 산불 기상지수를 이용한 산불발생확률모형 개발 -강원도 지역 산불발생을 중심으로-)

  • Park, Houng-Sek;Lee, Si-Young;Chae, Hee-Mun;Lee, Woo-Kyun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.95-100
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    • 2009
  • Fine fuel moisture code (FFMC), a main component of forest fire weather index(FWI) in the Canadian forest fire danger rating system(CFFDRS), indicated a probability of ignition through expecting a dryness of fine fuels. According to this code, a rising of temperature and wind velocity, a decreasing of precipitation and decline of humidity in a weather condition showed a rising of a danger rate for the forest fire. In this study, we analyzed a weather condition during 5 years in Kangwon province, calculated a FFMC and examined an application of FFMC. Very low humidity and little precipitation was a characteristic during spring and fall fire season in Kangwon province. 75% of forest fires during 5 years occurred in this season and especially 90% of forest fire during fire season occurred in spring. For developing of the prediction model for a forest fire occurrence probability, we used a logistic regression function with forest fire occurrence data and classified mean FFMC during 10 days. Accuracy of a developed model was 63.6%. To improve this model, we need to deal with more meteorological data during overall seasons and to associate a meteorological condition with a forest fire occurrence with more research results.

On the Annual Change of Surface Wind at Seocheon, Korea (서천지방의 지상풍 연변화에 관하여)

  • 문승의;김백조
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.375-382
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    • 1998
  • The characteristics of the basic statistics and steadiness of wind and the monthly normality test of surface wind distribution are investigated by using the observed wind data compiled from 10m meteorological observation tower at Seocheon district, where is located In the western coastal region of Korea. during the period from Feb. 7, 1996 to Feb. 7 1997 The northerly is appeared to be even in August and Sepember due to the influences of loccal circulation such as land and sea breeze. The correlation coefacients between two wind components are seemed to be positive during the in the period of from June to September and negative from October to April, respectively The constancy of wand Is high In shifts to lower values Increasing sampling time. It is found from monthly normality test based on the skewness and the excess of kurtosis coefficients that the distribution of zonal wind component is normal In spring and meridional one Is normal in late summer and early autumn.

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Growth Characteristics of Ligusticum chuanxing Hort. according to Soil and Meteorological Environment by Each Cultivation (재배지별 토양 및 기상환경에 따른 토천궁의 생육특성)

  • Jeong, Dae Hui;Kim, Ki Yoon;Park, Hong Woo;Jung, Chung Ryul;Kim, Hyun Jun;Jeon, Kwon Seok
    • Korean Journal of Plant Resources
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.64-72
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    • 2021
  • This study aimed to identify regions with a suitable growth environment for Ligusticum chuanxing Hort. and use basic data to identify appropriate cultivation and stable production strategies. Four main areas of cultivation were selected and the relationship between growth characteristics (aboveground and underground parts) and weather and soil environment was analyzed. Overall growth was found to be significantly higher in Pyeongchang. Atmospheric and soil temperatures showed a significant negative correlation with overall height from the ground, stem diameter, and growth characteristics of the underground part; leaf length and width were positively correlated. As insolation increased, the growth characteristics, excluding leaf size, showed a positive correlation. Soil characteristics such as organic matter (OM), N, P, and K showed negative correlations with the overall height of the upper part and growth characteristics of the underground part, including stem diameter. Analysis of roots indicated that OM, N, P, and K were essential and were absorbed through the soil. The OM, N, P, and K values in the Pyeongchang area, which showed the optimal growth, were lower than those in other areas. It is believed that these results can be used to select cultivation sites for L. chuanxing and establish cultivation technology in future.

A study on short-term wind power forecasting using time series models (시계열 모형을 이용한 단기 풍력발전 예측 연구)

  • Park, Soo-Hyun;Kim, Sahm
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.29 no.7
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    • pp.1373-1383
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    • 2016
  • The wind energy industry and wind power generation have increased; consequently, the stable supply of the wind power has become an important issue. It is important to accurately predict the wind power with short-term basis in order to make a reliable planning for the power supply and demand of wind power. In this paper, we first analyzed the speed, power and the directions of the wind. The neural network and the time series models (ARMA, ARMAX, ARMA-GARCH, Holt Winters) for wind power generation forecasting were compared based on mean absolute error (MAE). For one to three hour-ahead forecast, ARMA-GARCH model was outperformed, and the neural network method showed a better performance in the six hour-ahead forecast.

A Study on the Establishment of Agricultural Satellite Development Policy (농림업 중형위성 개발정책 수립에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hyeon-Cheol;Kim, Ah-Leum;Kim, Bum-Seung;Hong, Suk-Young;Lee, Woo-Kyung
    • Journal of Satellite, Information and Communications
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.87-94
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    • 2015
  • The increasing demands and utilization of the multi-purpose satellites have led to diverse research activities with regards to satellite image processing and applications. In the domestic development project for the Compact Advanced Satellite, it is a goal to develop the satellite with the domestic individual technique performing a various tasks such as the earth observation, the monitoring of the weather, climate and environment. In particular, the Compact Advanced Satellite is expect to be widely used in the agricultural sector, which account for a substantial part of public demand. This paper aims at establishing the way to utilize the satellite imagery in the domestic institution and the strategy for securing the specialized satellite payload in the agriculture sector. The technical element of satellite has a high value, so that it is hard to be transferred technology. For this reason, it is required to establish the domestic development planning. Furthermore, this paper can be utilized to identify and support the incoming Compact Advanced Satellite development plan utilizing satellite images capabilities specially in agricultural sector.