• Title/Summary/Keyword: 지가변동률

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주가와 지가의 인과관계에 관한 연구

  • 최승은
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 1996.10a
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    • pp.313-316
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    • 1996
  • 주식과 부동산은 각각 금융자산(financial asset)과 실물자산(real asset)의 대표 격으로 투자자들에게 매력적인 투자대상이다. 투자자들은 경제 여건의 변화에 따라 나타나는 두 자산의 수익률 차이를 최대한 이용하려고 노력해 왔다. 흔히들 주가와 지가는 서로 대칭적인 것으로 주가가 오르면 지가가 떨어지고, 지가가 오르면 부동산 시장으로 자금이 몰려서 주가가 떨어지는 것으로 얘기하는 경우가 많으나, 실제로는 동행관계로서 완급차이가 있을 뿐이다. 경기변동 곡선을 따라 경기변동에 민감한 주가가 우선적으로 반응하고 뒤이어 지가가 1년여의 시차를 두고 비슷한 패턴을 보이고 있다. 지금까지 대부분의 논문은 지가결정 모형을 세우기 위한 것으로 주가 이외에도 다른 여러 독립 변수들이 지가에 어떤 영향을 주는지를 연구하였다. 지가가 종속변수로서 여러 가지 실물 경기의 상황에 영향을 받는 것처럼 주가도 역시 다른 경기지표의 영향을 받는다. 그러므로 본 연구의 목적은 과거 30여년간의 우리나라 주가와 지가의 움직임을 통하여 주가와 지가 사이의 인과관계를 규명하는데 있다. 즉 주가와 지가 사이에 일방적인 인과관계가 있어서 주가가 지가에 선행하는지, 혹은 주가와 지가 사이에 상호적인 인과관계가 있는지 실증적인 연구를 통하여 알아보고자 한다.

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Land-use Enhancement Benefit According to Flood Safety (치수안전도에 따른 토지이용의 편익 분석)

  • Lee, Jin Ouk;Kim, Hung Soo;Shim, Myung Pil;Choi, Seung An
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.45-57
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    • 2004
  • This study analyzed the effect of land-use enhancement benefits with the flood safety which it is not quantified in the flood damage analysis, Korea. The land-use enhancement benefits mean the enhancement of land-use value according to the rise of flood safety of the protected area by the flood control projects and we performed the analysis of land-use enhancement benefits with the publicly announced land price which can objectively represent the land-use value of a specific area. We verified the statistical significance of the floating rate of land price according to the effects of flood control projects and the characteristics of a river through the analysis of variance. As a result of the verification, the increase of land-use value was represented by the net annual average floating rate of land price. The flood safety was classified as flood damage potential and flood prevention capacity. The flood damage potential was classified according to the rate of urbanization and flood prevention capacity was represented by the conditional annual non-exceedance probability obtained from the frequency analysis with uncertainty for the flood discharge. The study areas were small urban cities and we calculated the conditional annual non-exceedance probabilities of 200-year flood event for the levees constructed with the conditions of 10- and 50-year design frequency. The result was shown that the net annual average floating rate of land price would be raised nearly 5 times for 10%-increase of the conditional annual non-exceedance probability in small city areas.

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Location Benefit Analysis According to Flood Safety Increase (치수안전도 향상에 따른 자산이용고도화 효과 분석)

  • Lee, Jin Ouk;Choi, Seung An;Kim, Hung Soo;Shim, Myung Phil
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2004.05b
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    • pp.777-783
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    • 2004
  • 하천 세내지 주변은 급속한 시가지 조성과 인구밀집으로 유역의 불투수층이 증가하여 홍수도달시간이 짧아지고 홍수유출량이 증가하고 있다. 또한 엘리뇨${\cdot}$라니냐 등의 이상기후로 홍수사상의 발생 빈도와 규모가 증가하면서 홍수피해도 대형화되어 가고 있다. 그러나 치수사업은 다른 공공사업에 비해 경제성이 저평가 되어 투자우선순위가 밀려 사업시행이 지연되고 예방적 차원의 대책도 미흡하여 피해가 증가하는 악순환이 계속되고 있다. 따라서 본 인구에서는 우리나라의 치수경제성 분석에 있어 계량화하지 못하고 있는 자산이용고도화 효과를 치수안전도와 더불어 분석하고자 한다. 자산이용고도화는 치수사업 시행으로 해당지역의 치수안전도 향상에 따른 자산가치의 상승을 말하는데, 특정지역의 자산가치를 가장 객관적으로 표현할 수 있는 공시지가를 근거로 분석을 수행하였다. 치수사업 시행으로 인한 편익과 하천 특성에 따른 지가변동률의 차이가 통계적으로 유의성이 있는지를 분산분석을 통해 검증하였으면, 자산가치의 상승을 순수 연평균지가변동률로 나타내었다. 치수안전도는 홍수피해 잠재성과 홍수방어능력으로 구분하였는데 홍수피해 잠재성은 도시화율에 따라 구분하였고, 홍수방어능력은 홍수량의 빈도해석과 불확실성을 고려하여 조건부 비초과확률로 나타내었다. 본 연구에서는 소도시 지역(경안천, 복하천, 청미천)을 대상으로 200년 빈도의 홍수사상에 내해 10년, 50년 설계빈도로 건설된 제방의 조건부 비초과확률을 산정하여 지가변동률의 추이를 비교 분석하였다. 분석 결과, 소도시 지역에서는 조건부 비초과확률이 $10\%$ 상승했을 때 순수 연평균지가변동률이 5배정도 상승함을 알 수 있었다.다시 입력자료로 사용하는 업데이트 방식을 사용하기 때문에 예측결과의 오차가 완전하게 보정되지 않으면 다음 결과에 역시 오차를 주게 되어 오차보정이 상당히 중요하다는 것을 알 수 있었다. 오차를 보다 효과적으로 보정하기 위해서는 퍼지제어에 사용되는 퍼지규칙의 수를 늘리고, 유입량에 직접적인 영향을 주는 강우량과 연계한 2변수의 Fuzzy-Grey 모형을 이용한다면 보다 정확한 유입량 예측이 가능할 것으로 사료된다.이 작은 오차를 발생하였으며, 전체적으로 퍼프 모형이 입자모형보다는 훨씬 적은 수의 계산을 통해서도 작은 오차를 나타낼 수 있다는 것을 알 수 있었다. 그러나 Gaussian 분포를 갖는 퍼프모형은 전단흐름에서의 긴 유선형 농도분포를 모의할 수 없었고, 이에 관한 오차는 전단계수가 증가함에 따라 비선형적으로 증가하였다. 향후, 보다 다양한 흐름영역에서 장${\cdot}$단점 분석 및 오차해석을 수행한 후에 각각의 Lagrangian 모형의 장점만을 갖는 모형결합 방법을 제시할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.mm/$m^{2}$로 감소한 소견을 보였다. 승모판 성형술은 전 승모판엽 탈출증이 있는 두 환아에서 동시에 시행하였다. 수술 후 1년 내 시행한 심초음파에서 모든 환아에서 단지 경등도 이하의 승모판 폐쇄 부전 소견을 보였다. 수술 후 조기 사망은 없었으며, 합병증으로는 유미흉이 한 명에서 있었다. 술 후 10개월째 허혈성 확장성 심근증이 호전되지 않아 Dor 술식을 시행한 후 사망한 예를 제외한 나머지 6명은 특이 증상 없이 정상 생활 중이다 결론: 좌관상동맥 페동맥이상 기시증은 드물기는 하나, 영유아기에 심근경색 및 허혈성 심근증 또는 선천성 승모

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The Impact of Plan Characteristics of Residential Land Development Project on Inner Land Price Change (택지개발사업의 계획특성이 사업지구 지가변동에 미치는 영향)

  • Jang, In-Soo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.8
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    • pp.698-705
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact which the plan characteristics of Residential Land Development Projects have on land price changes in the project district and to derive policy implications for the efficient promotion of these projects. For this purpose, we analyzed the promotion land price change progress of Residential Land Development Projects step-by-step. After theoretical consideration and a review of the references, 16 plan characteristics of Residential Land Development Projects affecting land price changes were selected ((1) The rate of land price change, (2) Business area, (3) Residential land ratio, (4) Commercial land ratio, (5) Semi-residential land ratio, (6) Neighborhood facilities land ratio, (7) Apartment house ratio, (8) Street ratio, (9) Park & green ratio, (10) Ratio of land for schools, (11) Site development cost for $1m^2$, (12) General residential area ratio, (13) Semi-residential area ratio, (14) Commercial area ratio, (15) Semi-Industrial area ratio, and Natural green area ratio). We used SPSS Version 20.0 to analyze the impact of the 16 selected plan characteristics on the land price changes. As a result, it was found that the land price began to rise two years (before/after?) the appointment of the district and became stabilized after the completion of the project. The plan characteristics that affect the land price changes were found to be the (2) Business area, (4) Commercial land ratio, (6) Neighborhood facilities land ratio, (8) Street ratio, (11) Site development cost for $1m^2$, and (12) General residential area ratio.

Quality Evaluation of Official 'Land Price Change and Land Price Index' Statistics by TQM Approach (전사적 품질관리 접근에 의한 지가변동률통계의 품질평가 연구)

  • Kim, Yong-Chang
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.553-572
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    • 2008
  • International financial crises of the mid-l990s are widely perceived as the trigger that prompted recognition of the need for a new data quality management by the OECD, IMF, Eurostat and individual statistical agency. The official statistics improvements schedule in Korea was launched in 1996 as part of a broader internationally-agreed-upon initiative to strengthen transparency and promote good governance practices. These new initiatives are based on the Total Quality Management(TQM) movement and other management frameworks broadening the concept of quality beyond the traditional statistician's concepts of data quality. This paper aims to evaluate the statistics quality of Land Price Index. Evauation Method is the National Statistical Office's Data Quality Management System which focus on accuracy, timeliness, relevance, accessibility, comparability, serviceability, efficiency.

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91년 3/4분기 전국 지가변동률조사 결과

  • 한국주택협회
    • 주택과사람들
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    • no.2 s.19
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    • pp.83-88
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    • 1991
  • [ $\circ$ ]''91년 3/4분기 중 전국평균지가상승률은$ 2.71\%$(''91년 누계: $11.18\%$) $\circ$ 도시규모별: 6대도시-$2.73\%$, 중소도시-$3.21\%$, 녹지-$3.11\%$, 비도시-2.01$\%$ $\circ$ 용도지역별: 주거-2.71$\%$, 상업-2.78$\%$, 공업-$3.61\%$, 녹지-$3.11\%$, 비도시-$2.01\%$ $\circ$$\cdot$도별: 대전($7.14\%$), 인천($4.78\%$) 등이 많이 올랐고, 서울($1.93\%$), 전남($1.09\%$) 등의 상승률이 낮았음.

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Exploring Spatio-Temporal Variations of Land Price in Daegu Metropolitan City (대구시 지가의 시공간적 변화 탐색)

  • Kim, Kamyoung
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.414-432
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    • 2012
  • Land price is a kind of text to read urban spatial structure. The purpose of this paper is to inquire into the characteristics of Daegu's urban structure and its change in time through exploring spatio-temporal variations of land price with a detailed spatial and temporal resolution. To achieve this, land value surfaces were represented using the officially assessed land price every other year from 1995 to 2011. Through mapping and exploring spatio-temporal patterns and fluctuation rates of land price for this period, changes in urban structure, the effects of local decision makings such as Greenbelt adjustment, housing site development, and gentrification, and the effects of business fluctuations or policies at global or national scales could be caught. In addition, the trends for suburbanization and multi-centric urban form could be examined from the results of a negative exponential model explaining the effect of distance from an urban center on spatial variation of land price. These results demonstrate that urban analysis using land price mirroring spatial decision making at various scales could deepen understanding for internal structure and change of a city and provide useful information for establishing regional and urban development policies and evaluating their effects.

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A Study on the Standard Land Price and Just Compensation (공공수용 적정보상지가에 관한 분석)

  • LEE, Hojun;KIM, Hyungtai;JEONG, Dongho
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.1-29
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    • 2012
  • Based on the spatial and land price data of innovation cities and their periphery areas in Korea, this study examines the degree and timing of changes in land price in relation to projects concerning innovation city. The study result confirms that the current system is inconsistent with the principle of restitution of development gain and therefore, this study attempts to seek improvement measures so that the current system can better fit the principle. The analysis reveals that most innovation cities, excluding Sinseo-dong of Daegu and Ujeong-dong of Ulsan, recorded a statistically significant increase in land prices since 2005, compared to those of their neighboring areas. It can be said that the information related to projects concerning innovation city was reflected in the land price since 2005. However, the standard land price pursuant to Article 70 of the Land Compensation Act is the officially assessed land price released on 1st of January 2007, and this official land price was actually applied to the compensation process. Therefore, estimating the compensation amount for land expropriation based on this land price will contradict the principle of restitution of development gain. In other words, despite the fact that development-related information was already reflected in land prices of innovation cities from 2005 to the end of 2006, the compensation process were carried out without institutional arrangements or efforts to exclude such reflection. To solve this problem, this study makes two suggestions. First, it is necessary to cast aside the limitations of the official land price that can be retroactively applied in accordance with Paragraph 5 of Article 70 of the Land Compensation Act, and instead apply the land price which is the most latest but deemed to have no reflection of development gains. Based on this revised standard land price, if the compensation amount is corrected by the average inflation rate and the average rate of increase in land price during the period until the time of the recognized land price, the amount would better satisfy the principle of restitution of development gain. Second, it is necessary to clearly stipulate the standards of development gains being reflected on the land price by including it in the secondary legislation. Under the current system, it is highly likely that appraiser's arbitrary interpretation on development gains is included in the process of calculating the amount of compensation for land expropriation. In this regard, it is necessary to improve the standards on determining whether development gains are reflected based on the results of this academic research and the existing guidelines for appraisal of compensation for land expropriation published by the Korea Association of Property Appraisers.

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A study about Land value of neighborhood inflenced by activation of Jeonju Hanok Village Effect for the Ubiquitous age (유비쿼터스 시대에 전주 한옥마을 활성화가 인근지역 지가영향요인에 미치는 연구)

  • Choi, Ji-Yeon;Kim, Dong-Hyun
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.515-526
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    • 2014
  • In this study, the 'preservation of Jeonju Hanok Village Improvement Project' in earnest in promoting itself as the official land price changes in Jeonju Hanok Village and surrounding area thereby affect land prices to some extent in order to identify the time series analysis, t-black dispersion analysis showed the following results were obtained. First, time series analysis, and the Hanok Village, but the average official land price rises, and the area has been stead ilyrising. Second, the time series of the Official price year-over-year change in the average rate of the Hanok Village(+)rising, and the area is a gentle rise sooner or later (+)is expected to be an increase in conversion. Third, the number of tourists visiting Jeonju Hanok Village and sharply increased since 2008, was. Fourth, in order to use local official land price rises in the commercial area of highest priority that requires strategy was analyzed.