• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.28 no.5
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• pp.141-153
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• 2010

The study is about the development of operating speed prediction models aimed for an evaluation of design consistency of four lane rural roads. The main differences of this study relative to previous research are the method of data collection and classification of road alignments. The previous studies collected speed data at several points in the horizontal curve and approaching tangent. This method of collection is based on the assumption that acceleration and deceleration only occurs at horizontal tangents and the speed is kept constant at horizontal curves. However, this assumption leads to an unreliable speed estimation, so drivers' behavior is not well represented. Contrary to the previous approach, speed data were collected with one and data analysis using a speed profile is made for data selection before building final models. A total of six speed prediction models were made according to the combination of horizontal and vertical alignments. The study predicts that the speed data analysis and selection for model building employed in this study can improve the prediction accuracy of models and be useful to analyze drivers' speed behavior in a more detailed way. Furthermore, it is expected that the operating speed prediction models can help complement the current design-speed-based guidelines, so more benefits to drivers as real road users, rather than engineers or decision makers, can be achieved.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.24 no.5 s.91
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• pp.109-121
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• 2006

The road should be designed in the consistent alignment which the driver can drive safely. Also, proper highway environments in order to maintain optimal operational speeds on highway sections should be provided In design stage, for highway environments, it is essential for an operational speed estimation model to different highway environments. If a method which could evaluate the status of the road safety is developed through this operational speed estimation model, it is possible to provide safe and more comfortable highways to road users. In the study factors to effect on operational speeds are classified into three groups horizontal & vertical alignments and traffic operation characteristic factors. Factors are chosen to effect on operational speeds by using collation analysis as classifications of tangent sections, horizontal curve sections and vertical curve sections. In order to develop operational speed estimation models in express highways, multi-regression analysis has been used in this study using the selected factors. This study has meaning that the developed estimation models for operational speeds and evaluation of degree of safety to horizontal and vortical alignments simultaneous. In order to represent whole area of the country with the developed models, the models should be re-analyzed with vast data related with road alignment factors in the near future.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.23 no.7 s.85
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• pp.17-33
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• 2005

Highway design speed is a very important design element which determines highway design level. When determining highway design speed, one would estimate it utilizing the most likelihood of design speed and vehicle operating speed relationship. Existing operating speed prediction models only include highway geometric characteristics and their impacts on speed, which usually can not consider the impact of highway design speed on surrounding roadway environment and land use pattern. If this happens, excessive highway construction cost and huge environmental impact can occur. In this research project, a new vehicle operating speed prediction model was developed which can reflect the effect of surrounding roadway environment into vehicle speed prediction. The followings are the research findings : Firstly, highway terrain types and land use pattern on national roads were classified and integrated into drivers' visual recognition pattern. This was performed using a data management software. Secondly, the developed highway terrain types and land use pattern were related to vehicle speeds and it was found that there were significant statistical differences among vehicle speed for each different terrain and land use pattern. Thirdly. the General Linear Model analysis was employed to analyze the effects of highway geometric features, terrain types, and land use patterns. For two-lane highway and four-lane highway tested in this research project, it was found that R squares were 0.67 and 0.85, respectively. Additionally an optimal highway design speed range table, based on this research project. was proposed for practical use. This table can be reliably used on South Korean national road design, but discretion is required for applying this table to other types of highways including provincial roads and municipal roads.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.117-131
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• 2009

When most drivers take to the freeway, they don't necessarily pay attention to the geometric design. They expect proper design by depending on their own senses and recognition. When they evaluate the features of traveling on the freeway, they can think differently than engineers. The design needs to predict the exact speed of the driver to satisfy the driver's expectation, safety, pleasure and so on. This study categorized the factors influencing the speed of six freeways considering geometric and operational features to make a prediction model of speed. The model used multiple regression with these factors and produced statically appropriate results. This study utilized the principle component analysis and the quantification II analysis based on the image data of the satisfaction of the traveling environment collected through individual interviews. As a result, this study found the factors of satisfaction in a traveling environment. It made a satisfaction model of the traveling environment on freeways considering the change of driver's actual recognition and societal recognition using structural equations and the quantification II theory. Through the model made in this study, This model can present not only qualitative factors like satisfaction of traveling environment on freeways, but also the quantitative elements like speed. What is important is the evaluation of features of traveling on freeways reflected in the recognition and traffic environment felt by drivers.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.131-139
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• 2002

This study introduces a developed artificial neural networks(ANN) model as a more efficient and reliable prediction model in operating speed Prediction with the 85th percentile horizontal curve of two-way rural highway in the aspect of evaluating highway design consistency. On the assumption that the speed is decided by highway geometry features, total 30 survey sites were selected. Data include currie radius, curve length, intersection angle, sight distance, lane width, and lane of those sites and were used as input layer data of the ANN. The optimized model structure was drawn by number of unit of hidden layer, learning coefficient, momentum coefficient, and change in learning frequency in multi-layer a ANN model. To verify learning Performance of ANN, 30 survey sites were selected while data in obtained from the 20 cites were used as learning data and those from the remaining 10 sites were used as predictive data. As a result of statistical verification, the model D of 4 types of ANN was evaluated as the most similar model to the actual operating speed value: R2 was 85% and %RMSE was 0.0204.

• 한국도로학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2010.09a
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• pp.271-276
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• 2010

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.1177-1190
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• 2009

The traffic operating speed is one of important information to measure a road capacity. When we supply the information of the road of high traffic by using navigation, offering the present traffic information and the forecasted future information are the outstanding functions to serve the more accurate expected times and intervals. In this study, we proposed the traffic speed forecasting model using the accumulated traffic speed data of the road and highway and forecasted the average speed for each the road and high interval and each time interval using Fourier transformation and time series regression model with trigonometrical function. We also propose the proper method of missing data imputation and treatment for the outliers to raise an accuracy of the traffic speed forecasting and the speed grouping method for which data have similar traffic speed pattern to increase an efficiency of analysis.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.23 no.7 s.85
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• pp.35-42
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• 2005

Few studies have been carried out to find out the interaction of design speeds, operating speeds, and posted speeds though they have a complementary relationships. As an attempt to find the relationships, this study measured the speeds of the free flowing vehicles at four lane rural highways. In comparison of 95th percentile speeds and inferred design speeds determined from the road design manual with the geometric features of each sites, operating speeds were constantly higher than the inferred design speeds at the sites where the inferred design speed is under 110km/h. and the reverse situation was observed at the sites where the inferred design speed is over 130km/h. In the comparison of operating speeds and posted speeds. the range of the 85th percentile speeds at the sites where posted speeds is 80km/h was distributed from 95km/h to 110km/h. and the range was distributed from the 105km/h to the 120km/h at the sites where posted speeds is 90km/h. Multiple regression analysis was used to develop prediction equations for mean. 85th. and 95th percentile speeds at approach and curve midpoint locations. At the midpoint, only posted speeds influenced the mean, 85th. At the approach locations, the mean, 85th, 95th percentile speeds were influenced by posted speeds and length of the approach tangent.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.57-67
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• 2008

At present engineers use the highway design speed concept to develop the horizontal alignment. This concept has a strength of attaining consistent horizontal alignments because of its use of a single speed value. Yet it shows a critical weakness that when opened the operating speed for the vehicles on the road can be a lot different than the design speed. To resolve this, many countries already develop the horizontal alignment by adopting procedures that weigh vehicle operating speeds, and this research joins them by developing an operating speed based horizontal alignment design. We have collected vehicle speed samples over the nation, selected some speed influential design elements by doing a statistical analysis, provided a set of models for two-lane roads and four lane roads, and showed a stepwise feedback procedure by doing a case study. It is underscored that in the case study the proposed procedure has scaled down the speed inconsistency problem, and we are of opinion that our procedure would coin both investment efficiency and speed consistency in future highway projects.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.17 no.5
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• pp.137-149
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• 1999

For decades, many traffic flow studies on the analysis and determination of level of service (LOS) for the weaving sections have been made to Provide several regression equations. Weaving and non-weaving speeds were dependent variables for the equations, with independent variables being weaving length, number of lanes, and weaving ratios. One of the difficulties in developing the equations was that the weaving areas were rare in Korea, so the statistical analyses for calibrating the equation parameter could not be performed in a desirable manner. In this regard, a new and stochastic methodology for predicting the weaving and non-weaving speeds within the weaving sections was required. In this study the following design variables were developed; influence area of the weaving section. headway distribution within the weaving section, maximum weaving volume of the weaving section, length of the ideal weaving section, and speed estimations for the weaving and non-weaving flows. The evaluation of the new model was made comparing the delay in the weaving section with the one in the freeway basic section.