• Title/Summary/Keyword: 주가 예측 모델

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A Study on Model for Gas Venting Characteristic of Pressure Vessel for Propulsion System (추진체계 가압용 압력용기의 기체배출특성 모델에 관한 연구)

  • Hwang, Yoojun;Byun, Jung Joo;Lee, Ju Young;Kim, Kiun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.268-276
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    • 2017
  • Developing a model was carried out to predict the characteristic of a pressure vessel from which the gas was vented through an orifice. An experimental test was conducted on a pressure vessel applicable to a propulsion system so that representative pressure and temperature were measured. Simulations were conducted with models using assumptions considering heat transfer inside the vessel, and the results were compared to those from the experiment. As a result, it was found out that a proposed heat transfer model was proper to predict pressure and temperature of the vented gas comparable to the measured data.

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Optimization Technique for Parameter Estimation used in 2-Dimensional Modelling of Nonlinear Consolidation Analysis of Soft Deposits (2차원 모델화된 연약지반의 비선형 압밀해석시 이용되는 모델변수 추정을 위한 최적화기법)

  • 김윤태;이승래
    • Geotechnical Engineering
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.47-58
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    • 1997
  • The predicted consolidation behavior of in-situ soft clay is quite different from the meas ureal one mainly due to the approximate numerical modelling techniques as well as the uncertainties involved in soil properties and geological configurations. In order to improve the prediction, this paper takes the following pinto consideration : an optimization technique should be adopted for characterizing the in-situ properties from measurements and also an equivalent and efficient model be considered to incorporate the actual 3-D effects. The soil parameters used be the modified Camflay model, which have an effect on the process of consolidation, were back-analyzed by BFGS scheme on the basis of settlements and pore pressures measured in real sites. The optimization technique was implemented in a general consolidation analysis program SPINED. By using the program, one may be able to appropriately analyze the timetependent consolidation behavior of soft deposits.

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Development of Urban Inundation Forecasting System in Seoul (서울시 도시침수 예측시스템 개발)

  • Shim, Jea Bum;Kim, Ho Soung;Kim, Kwang Hun;Lee, Byong Ju
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.341-341
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    • 2020
  • 서울시는 '10년, '11년, '18년의 기록적인 호우로 인해 막대한 재산피해를 기록하였다. 이로 인해 서울시는 수재해 최소화 대책의 필요성을 인지하여 방재시설물 확충 등의 구조적 대책과 함께 침수지역 예측, 호우 영향 예보와 관련된 비구조적 대책 수립을 위해 노력하고 있다. 그 일환으로 '18년에 『서울시 강한 비구름 유입경로 및 침수위험도 예측 용역』을 수행하였으며 이를 통해 레이더 기반의 비구름 이동경로 추정 기술, 침수시나리오 기반의 침수위험지역 추정기술 등을 적용한 서울시 도시침수 예측시스템을 개발하였다. 그러나 침수피해에 선제적으로 대응하기 위해서는 실시간으로 예측강우정보를 생산하고 이를 통해 침수위험지역을 추정하는 기술이 필요하다. 이에 본 연구를 통해 예측강우정보 생산 기술 적용, 예측강우정보를 이용한 실시간 침수위험지역 추정 기술 개발을 수행하여 서울시 도시침수 예측시스템을 고도화하였다. 예측강우정보의 경우 현재 기상청에서 광역 단위 호우특보 및 읍면동 단위 동네예보를 통해 제공되고 있지만, 풍수해 업무에 적용하기에는 제한적이며, 실시간 침수위험지역 추정의 경우 침수해석모델의 모의시간, 라이센스 등의 문제로 인해 한계를 보이고 있는 실정이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 레이더 실황강우정보를 활용한 이류모델 기반의 예측강우정보 생산 기술을 적용하여 풍수해 업무 적용이 용이하도록 하였으며, 예측강우정보를 이용한 최적 침수시나리오 추정 기술 개발을 통해 실시간 침수위험지역 추정이 가능하도록 하였다. 서울시 도시침수 예측시스템은 25개 자치구를 대상으로 강우량, 호우이동경로, 침수 정보를 제공하고 있다. 강우정보는 기상청 및 SK-TechX 기반의 10분 및 1시간 단위 AWS 관측정보, 이류모델 기반 10분 단위 레이더 예측정보, 국지예보모델 기반 1시간 단위 LDAPS 예측정보를 제공하며. 호우이동경로는 레이더 실황강우정보와 LDAPS 바람장을 이용하여 서울시 및 수도권 지역의 10분 단위 1시간 예측경로를 제공한다. 침수정보는 실시간으로 레이더 예측강우정보를 이용하여 최적의 침수시나리오를 추정하여 격자 단위 상세 침수정보와 시군구 단위 침수위험지도를 제공한다. 본 시스템을 통해 실시간 침수위험지역 확인이 가능해짐에 따라 서울시의 효율적인 풍수해 업무 지원이 가능할 것으로 판단된다.

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A Study on Deriving the Statistical Weight Estimation Formula for an Aircraft Wing (항공기 날개의 통계적 중량 예측식 도출 연구)

  • Kim, Seok-Beom;Jeong, Han-Gyu;Hwang, Ho-Yon
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.32-40
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    • 2018
  • In this research, a method of deriving statistical weight prediction formula which is used during the conceptual design phase was studied and it was programmed using Microsoft Excel and verified by applying to jet transport aircraft. The database was built while referencing the variables of conventional wing weight estimation formulas and it was used for modeling the jet transport wing weight regression equation. The model was evaluated using the K-fold cross validation method to solve the overfitting problem of the model.

Development of QSAR Model Based on the Key Molecular Descriptors Selection and Computational Toxicology for Prediction of Toxicity of PCBs (PCBs 독성 예측을 위한 주요 분자표현자 선택 기법 및 계산독성학 기반 QSAR 모델 개발)

  • Kim, Dongwoo;Lee, Seungchel;Kim, Minjeong;Lee, Eunji;Yoo, ChangKyoo
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.54 no.5
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    • pp.621-629
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    • 2016
  • Recently, the researches on quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) for describing toxicities or activities of chemicals based on chemical structural characteristics have been widely carried out in order to estimate the toxicity of chemicals in multiuse facilities. Because the toxicity of chemicals are explained by various kinds of molecular descriptors, an important step for QSAR model development is how to select significant molecular descriptors. This research proposes a statistical selection of significant molecular descriptors and a new QSAR model based on partial least square (PLS). The proposed QSAR model is applied to estimate the logarithm of partition coefficients (log P) of 130 polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and lethal concentration ($LC_{50}$) of 14 PCBs, where the prediction accuracies of the proposed QSAR model are compared to a conventional QSAR model provided by OECD QSAR toolbox. For the selection of significant molecular descriptors that have high correlation with molecular descriptors and activity information of the chemicals of interest, correlation coefficient (r) and variable importance of projection (VIP) are applied and then PLS model of the selected molecular descriptors and activity information is used to predict toxicities and activity information of chemicals. In the prediction results of coefficient of regression ($R^2$) and prediction residual error sum of square (PRESS), the proposed QSAR model showed improved prediction performances of log P and $LC_{50}$ by 26% and 91% than the conventional QSAR model, respectively. The proposed QSAR method based on computational toxicology can improve the prediction performance of the toxicities and the activity information of chemicals, which can contribute to the health and environmental risk assessment of toxic chemicals.

Prediction of Ground Subsidence Hazard Area Using GIS and Probability Model near Abandoned Underground Coal Mine (GIS 및 확률모델을 이용한 폐탄광 지역의 지반침하 위험 예측)

  • Choi, Jong-Kuk;Kim, Ki-Dong;Lee, Sa-Ro;Kim, Il-Soo;Won, Joong-Sun
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.40 no.3 s.184
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    • pp.295-306
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    • 2007
  • In this study, we predicted areas vulnerable to ground subsidence near abandoned underground coal mine at Sam-cheok City in Korea using a probability (frequency ratio) model with Geographic Information System (GIS). To extract the factors related to ground subsidence, a spatial database was constructed from a topographical map, geo-logical map, mining tunnel map, land characteristic map, and borehole data on the study area including subsidence sites surveyed in 2000. Eight major factors were extracted from the spatial analysis and the probability analysis of the surveyed ground subsidence sites. We have calculated the decision coefficient ($R^2$) to find out the relationship between eight factors and the occurrence of ground subsidence. The frequency ratio model was applied to deter-mine each factor's relative rating, then the ratings were overlaid for ground subsidence hazard mapping. The ground subsidence hazard map was then verified and compared with the surveyed ground subsidence sites. The results of verification showed high accuracy of 96.05% between the predicted hazard map and the actual ground subsidence sites. Therefore, the quantitative analysis of ground subsidence near abandoned underground coal mine would be possible with a frequency ratio model and a GIS.

Design of a MapReduce-Based Mobility Pattern Mining System for Next Place Prediction (다음 장소 예측을 위한 맵리듀스 기반의 이동 패턴 마이닝 시스템 설계)

  • Kim, Jongwhan;Lee, Seokjun;Kim, Incheol
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.3 no.8
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    • pp.321-328
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    • 2014
  • In this paper, we present a MapReduce-based mobility pattern mining system which can predict efficiently the next place of mobile users. It learns the mobility pattern model of each user, represented by Hidden Markov Models(HMM), from a large-scale trajectory dataset, and then predicts the next place for the user to visit by applying the learned models to the current trajectory. Our system consists of two parts: the back-end part, in which the mobility pattern models are learned for individual users, and the front-end part, where the next place for a certain user to visit is predicted based on the mobility pattern models. While the back-end part comprises of three distinct MapReduce modules for POI extraction, trajectory transformation, and mobility pattern model learning, the front-end part has two different modules for candidate route generation and next place prediction. Map and reduce functions of each module in our system were designed to utilize the underlying Hadoop infrastructure enough to maximize the parallel processing. We performed experiments to evaluate the performance of the proposed system by using a large-scale open benchmark dataset, GeoLife, and then could make sure of high performance of our system as results of the experiments.

Research on optimal safety ship-route based on artificial intelligence analysis using marine environment prediction (해양환경 예측정보를 활용한 인공지능 분석 기반의 최적 안전항로 연구)

  • Dae-yaoung Eeom;Bang-hee Lee
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.100-103
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    • 2023
  • Recently, development of maritime autonomoust surface ships and eco-friendly ships, production and evaluation research considering various marine environments is needed in the field of optimal routes as the demand for accurate and detailed real-time marine environment prediction information expands. An algorithm that can calculate the optimal route while reducing the risk of the marine environment and uncertainty in energy consumption in smart ships was developed in 2 stages. In the first stage, a profile was created by combining marine environmental information with ship location and status information within the Automatic Ship Identification System(AIS). In the second stage, a model was developed that could define the marine environment energy map using the configured profile results, A regression equation was generated by applying Random Forest among machine learning techniques to reflect about 600,000 data. The Random Forest coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.89, showing very high reliability. The Dijikstra shortest path algorithm was applied to the marine environment prediction at June 1 to 3, 2021, and to calculate the optimal safety route and express it on the map. The route calculated by the random forest regression model was streamlined, and the route was derived considering the state of the marine environment prediction information. The concept of route calculation based on real-time marine environment prediction information in this study is expected to be able to calculate a realistic and safe route that reflects the movement tendency of ships, and to be expanded to a range of economic, safety, and eco-friendliness evaluation models in the future.

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Condition Estimation of Facility Elements Using XGBoost (XGBoost를 활용한 시설물의 부재 상태 예측)

  • Chang, Taeyeon;Yoon, Sihoo;Chi, Seokho;Im, Seokbeen
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.31-39
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    • 2023
  • To reduce facility management costs and safety concerns due to aging of facilities, it is important to estimate the future facilities' condition based on facility management data and utilize predictive information for management decision making. To this end, this study proposed a methodology to estimate facility elements' condition using XGBoost. To validate the proposed methodology, this study constructed sample data for road bridges and developed a model to estimate condition grades of major elements expected in the next inspection. As a result, the developed model showed satisfactory performance in estimating the condition grades of deck, girder, and abutment/pier (average F1 score 0.869). In addition, a testbed was established that provides data management function and element condition estimation function to demonstrate the practical applicability of the proposed methodology. It was confirmed that the facility management data and predictive information in this study could help managers in making facility management decisions.

Current Situation and Problems in Applying Groundwater Flow Models to EIAs in Korea (지하수환경영향예측을 위한 지하수모델의 적용현황 및 문제점: 환경영향평가서와 먹는샘물환경영향조사서를 중심으로)

  • 김강주
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Groundwater Environment
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.66-75
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    • 1999
  • This work was initiated to investigate current situation and problems in applying groundwater-related models for various kinds of environmental impact assessment in Korea. and therefore. to enhance appropriate application in the future. This study was carried out with 544 and 16 documents of EIA (Environmental Impact Assessment. Law of Environmental Impact Assessment) and Mineral-Water EIA (“the environmental impact investigation for mineral water developments”; Law of Drinking Water Management). respectively. It was revealed that there were considerably many cases which may cause serious impacts on subsurface environments in EIA. However. none applied groundwater models. Generally, the influences on subsurface system were underestimated or even ignored in EIA. For Mineral-Water EIA. groundwater models wert applied. in general. But. numerous and serious problems were noted: limited number of calibration parameters and parameter types. setting boundary conditions without adequate bases. recharge rates several times higher than precipitation rates. numerically unstable results. etc. Such kinds of misusages seem to be caused by modelers larking in professional knowledges. To solve the problems revealed from this study. more systematic re-education programs are suggested.

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