• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.277-294
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• 2001

본 연구는 환율과 금리 및 주가간의 균형관계를 나타내는 분석모형(分析模型)을 구축 제시하고, 그 분석모형을 구성하고 있는 일별(日別) 국내 외 금융지표의 변동간에 장기관계(長期關係)가 성립하는지 즉, 공적분(共積分) 관계(關係)의 성립여부를 분석하며, 이들 금융지표간 균형관계에 대한 안정성(安定性)(stationary) 여부를 검증함으로써 제시한 분석모형의 유효성(有效性) 즉, 장기모형관계(長斯模型關係)에 대한 성립여부를 분석하는 데 중점을 두고 있다. 분석결과는 분석모형의 변수간 장기관계 즉, 공적분 관계가 존재한다 할지라도 다변량 가설검증에 의하여 분석모형이 장기모형관계(長斯模型關係)로부터 유의적(有意的)으로 이탈할 수도 있다는 사실을 확충하고 있다.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.17 no.10
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• pp.169-176
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• 2019

Recently, the Korean economy is congested with Japan's economic retaliation, the US-China trade war, the Bank of Korea's 0.25% base rate cut and Korea's economic growth forecast revision. The purpose of this study is to analyze the KOSPI, CPI, Treasury bonds(3 years) Interest rate & sales performance of all industries, and examine the impact of each index on the KOSPI. The analysis period is from January 2003 to June 2019, and the effect of each index on the KOSPI is analyzed. In numerical analysis, we performed correlation coefficients and regression analysis. In the model analysis, the distribution, quadrant, scatter, box-plot and impulse response were examined. This study examined the volatility and dynamic characteristics of each index. As a result, the KOSPI showed a high correlation with sales and Treasury bonds, but showed a very low correlation with the CPI. The KOSPI will continue to be affected by sales and interest rates.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.16 no.8
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• pp.387-394
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• 2016

The volatility in the stock market responds differently to information types. That is, the asymmetric volatility exists in the stock market which responds more to unexpected negative returns due to bad news than unexpected positive returns due to good news. This paper examines the asymmetric response of the volatility of KOSPI, large-cap, middle-cap, and small-cap indices returns which is announced in Korea exchange (KRX) by using the MA-GJR model and the MA-EGARCH model. According to empirical analyses, it shows that the asymmetric response of volatility exists in all indices regardless of volatility estimation models and the degree of the asymmetric volatility response of the small-cap index returns is greater than that of the large-cap index returns. Moreover, this results also observed robustly during the period of both before and after the global financial crisis.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.91-105
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• 2005

Using Campa and Chang's Expectations Hypothesis model, We test the expectations hypothesis in the term structure of volatilities in options on KOSPI 200 by using daily dosing prices from January 1999 to December 2003. In particular, it addresses whether long-dated volatilities are consistent with expected future short-dated volatilities, assuming rational expectation. Our results do not support the expectations hypothesis : long-term volatilities rise relative to short-term volatilities, but the increases are not matched as predicted by the expectations hypothesis. In addition, an increase in the current long-term volatilities relative to the current short-term volatilities is followed by at a random.

• Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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• 2010.11a
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• pp.379-389
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• 2010

주가수익률의 하락은 주식시장의 유동성(liquidity)에 부정적인 영향을 주며, 특히 금융정책이 긴축 시에는 더욱 주식시장을 위축되게 만들고 있다. 이러한 경우에 있어서 업종들 간의 주가수익률에는 차이가 발생하게 된다.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Studies
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.157-185
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• 1996

본 연구는 한국증권시장에서 변동성의 정보비대칭효과를 조건부 이분산모형을 이용하여 검증하고자 하였다. 검증방법으로는 Engle과 Ng (1993)의 연구에 기초하여 정보반응곡선(News impact curve)으로 분석하였다. 분석자료로 1980년 부터 1995년 까지의 한국종합주가지수, 일별 초과수익률자료를 사용하였다. 정보반응곡선에 이용한 모형은 GARCH 모형, EGARCH 모형, TGARCH 모형, AGARCH 모형등 4개의 조건부 이분산 모형이다. 무조건 분산을 이용한 정보 반응곡선의 함수형태로 보면, 분산의 정보반응에 있어서 GARCH 모형은 대칭적으로 반응하며 나머지 조건부 이분산 모형인 EGARCH 모형, TGARCH 모형, 그리고 AGARCH 모형은 비대칭적으로 반응하는 모형임을 알 수 있었다. 실증분석결과 정보반응곡선을 통하여 악재(bad news)정보에 따라 예측하지 못한 주식수익률의 하락이 호재(good news)에 따른 예측하지 못한 주식수익률의 상승보다 더 큰 변동성을 발견할 수 있었다. 그러나 비대칭성의 크기는 그다지 큰 것으로 보이지 않았다. 모형적합성 검정에서도 4개의 조건부 이분산 모형은 모두 적합한 것으로 보인다. 그중에서도 EGARCH 모형과 TGARCH 모형이 상대적으로 주가예측력이 뛰어나 보인다. 그러나 변동성의 정보 비대칭반응을 통계적으로 유의적인 것으로 확인한 모형은 TGARCH모형 뿐이었다.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.143-170
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• 2006

We explore how stock returns and volatility have been impacted by securities market stimulating and controlling plans during the 1980-2004 period, using return analysis, event study, and BFL tests. First, we examine effectiveness of the stimulating plans for a depressed market and the controlling plans for an overheated market with respect to different firm sizes and industries as well as the whole market. KOSPI, large-sized, finance, and manufacturing company stock prices significantly rise following stimulating plans, implying that the plans are quite effective. Controlling plans also seem effective as stock prices stop rising and tend to decline following the plans. Second, we test whether securities market plans have any further impact with respect to fun sizes and industries in addition to the impact on the entire market. Only large-sized stocks show additional response to stimulating plans, while small-sized, electrical-electronic equipment, distribution, and manufacturing industries are further impacted by controlling plans. Third, the results of BFL tests show that volatility does not change around the announcement dates of stimulating and controlling plans. It appears that securities market plans have no impact on volatility. Only stock returns respond to the plans.

• Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.46-54
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• 2020

This study aims to develop and analyze the performance of a selective option straddle strategy based on forecasted volatility to improve the weakness of typical straddle strategy solely based on negative volatility risk premium. The KOSPI 200 option volatility is forecasted by the SVM model combined with the asymmetric volatility spillover effect. The selective straddle strategy enters option position only when the volatility is forecasted downwardly or sideways. The SVM model is trained for 2008-2014 training period and applied for 2015-2018 testing period. The suggested model showed improved performance, that is, its profit becomes higher and risk becomes lower than the benchmark strategies, and consequently typical performance index, Sharpe Ratio, increases. The suggested model gives option traders guidelines as to when they enter option position.

• Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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• 2019.10a
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• pp.844-847
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• 2019

주가 예측은 상업적인 매력 때문에 많은 이목이 끌리는 분야이지만, 주가의 불확실성과 변동성 때문에 주가 예측은 어려운 작업이다. 최근에는 주가 예측 모델에 어텐션 메커니즘을 사용하여 주가 예측에 많은 인자들이 사용되어 생기는 성능 하락 문제를 해결하여 좋은 성능을 보여주는 연구가 존재한다. 본 연구에서는 그 모델 중 하나인 Dual-Stage Attention-Based Recurrent Neural Network(DARNN)의 어텐션 메커니즘을 변경해가며 어떤 어텐션 메커니즘이 주가 예측에 적합한지를 알아본다. KOSPI100 지수의 예측실험을 통해 location 스코어함수를 사용한 어텐션 메커니즘이 가장 뛰어난 성능을 보여주는 것을 확인하였고, 이는 기존의 스코어함수를 사용한 DARNN에 비해 약 10% 향상된 성능으로 스코어 함수가 모델의 중요한 영향을 끼치는 것을 확인하였다.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.28 no.8
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• pp.59-66
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• 2023

The Golden Cross is commonly seen as a buy signal in financial markets, but its reliability for predicting stock price movements is limited due to market volatility. This paper introduces a time-invariant approach that considers the Golden Cross as a singular event. Utilizing LSTM neural networks, we forecast significant stock price changes following a Golden Cross occurrence. By comparing our approach with traditional time series analysis and using a confusion matrix for classification, we demonstrate its effectiveness in predicting post-event stock price trends. To conclude, this study proposes a model with a precision of 83%. By utilizing the model, investors can alleviate potential losses, rather than making buy decisions under all circumstances following a Golden Cross event.