• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.4 no.4 s.16
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• pp.201-211
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• 2003

Considering about construction projects characteristics, there Is an existing uncertainty which causes inaccuracy or invalidity under decision making situation. Therefore, cost risk analysis of numerous construction projects are Inclined to depend on expert's experiences and subjective judgements. In Korean domestic construction works, however, there is no reasonable method or process for applying subjective elements. Only probabilistic analysis using objective calculation are being used now. This research suggests a cost risk analysis method to analyze quantitatively Cost Impact by risk, and it appraises expert's subjective elements for the purpose of enhancing validity of cost estimation. Moreover, a new cost risk analysis method is introduced for providing convenient user interface in practical business.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.2 no.2 s.6
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• pp.68-80
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• 2001

While opportunities for international construction firms have been growing with globalization, the risk of international construction projects is significantly increasing in severity and complexity. However, the traditional risk management approach in the construction industry has maintained a profit focus. In addition, this approach has not considered the overall risk at the corporate level, but rather has focused only on the risk of individuals at the project level. Corporate risk management should be implemented from the initial stages of new project selection. This paper suggests the Multi-criteria Integrated Systematic Analysis as a strategic decision-making tool for international construction contractors. The model integrates the multi-criteria of risk, return, and efficiency to choose the optimal set of new portfolios at the corporate level. This model also introduces the Value at Risk (VaR) concept to the international construction industry to present the total risk at the corporate level. To validate this model, this paper tested an experimental case study using the historical data of a global general contractor.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.163-170
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• 2014

This study calculates the employee receives severance pay scale are paid from the company in the DC system. In addition, by utilizing the reserve growth model were studied in accordance with shortfall risk levels generated by stochastic asset allocation. For the analysis, from 2004 to 2013 using the KOSPI returns and total bond yields were simulated. Scenario 1 is when compared to the severance reserve is insufficient. Scenario 2 is the same as if toy reserve this severance pay. During one period, depending on the asset allocation of stocks and bonds was confirmed that the probability pension risk does not occur. And we suggest that members of DC pension risk endeavor with the government and companies to avoid.

• Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.537-544
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• 2018

A national comprehensive aviation test center is being constructed for the purpose of flight tests for development and modification of aircraft or flight inspections for the development of navaids. Flight testing is a high-risk task, so strict risk management processes are required prior to operation. In addition, since the flight test center is subject to the airdrome regulations under the current law, the introduction of the safety management system will enhance safety as usual in ordinary airports. The establishment of a safety management system based on ICAO criteria is an optimal means of ensuring safe and effective operation of the test center and may mitigate the risks that may arise during flight testing. This paper focuses on risk assessment and mitigation required for safety management at the flight test center. We conducted risk assessments on the flight hazards identified in the previous study. Then the high risk group of hazards were selected and risk mitigation techniques such as avoidance, reduction, acceptance, and control were applied.

• 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2011.11a
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• pp.155-155
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• 2011

신재생에너지 수요가 확대됨에 따라 신재생에너지 관련 제품에 소요되는 물질에 대한 관심이 확대되고 있다. 이들 물질은 공급리스크가 존재하는 희유금속이 주를 이루고 있다. 본 연구에서는 신재생에너지 등의 high tech 기술 확대로 인한 희유금속의 수요 및 공급을 전망하고 있는 미국의 critical raw material 관리 전략을 살펴보고자 한다. 미국은 2010년 12월 미국 에너지성(DOE : Department of Energy)에서 위기 물질 전략(Critical Materials Strategy)에 관한 리포트를 공표하였다. 클린 에너지 기술 4개 분야(영구자석, 선진 전지, 태양전지 박막, 형광 물질)에서 핵심이 되는 물질(희유금속 등)의 수급 불균형이 일어날 가능성에 대해 조사를 실시하여 리스크 평가하여 단기, 중단기로 구분하여 위기물질을 선정하였다. 클린 에너지 기술 4개 분야에서 핵심이 되는 물질(네오디움, 디스프로슘, 코발트, 리튬, 랜턴, 세륨, 테룰, 인듐, 갈륨, 유로피움, 테르비움, 이트륨)의 12광종 수급을 2025년까지 전망한 결과 전체적으로 단기(2010년~2015년)보다 중기(2015년~2025년)에 공급 부족이 확대한다고 예측되었다. 단기적으로는 인듐이 약간 부족하는 것 외에 디스프로슘과 이트륨에 관해서도 공급 부족할 것으로 예측되었다. 중기적으로는 코발트(전지 기술에 사용)와 유로피움(고효율 조명용의 형광 물질에 사용) 외 대상이 된 다른 모든 물질은 공급 부족이 발생할 것으로 전망되었다. 이를 종합하여 단기적으로는 디스프리슘, 유로피움, 인듐, 테르븀, 네오디움, 이트륨 등이, 중기적으로는 디스프리슘, 유로피움, 테르븀, 네오디움, 이트륨 등이 위기물질(Critical Material)로 분석되었다. 에너지성은 위기물질을 공급원다각화, 대체물질개발, 리유즈, 리사이클링 등을 국제적 파트너와 함께 추진하여 리스크를 관리할 것이며, 2011년까지 최신정보를 구축하여 위기물질 전략을 재설정할 예정이다. 체계적인 위기물질 선정 및 관리전략 등을 참조하고, 신재생에너지기술 변화에 따른 원재료의 중요성 및 리스크 관리현황을 기초로 우리나라에 적합한 위기관리 물질 선정 및 관리가 필요할 것이다.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.127-134
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• 2008

Potential economic impact of a hypothetical severe accident at a nuclear power plant(Uljin units 3/4) was estimated by applying the Delphi method, which is based on the expert judgements and opinions, in the process of quantifying uncertain factors. For the purpose of this study, it is assumed that the radioactive plume directs the inland direction. Since the economic risk can be divided into direct costs and indirect effects and more uncertainties are involved in the latter, the direct costs were estimated first and the indirect effects were then estimated by applying a weighting factor to the direct cost. The Delphi method however subjects to risk of distortion or discrimination of variables because of the human behavior pattern. A mathematical approach based on the Bayesian inferences was employed for data processing to improve the Delphi results. For this task, a model for data processing was developed. One-dimensional Monte Carlo Analysis was applied to get a distribution of values of the weighting factor. The mean and median values of the weighting factor for the indirect effects appeared to be 2.59 and 2.08, respectively. These values are higher than the value suggested by OECD/NEA, 1.25. Some factors such as small territory and public attitude sensitive to radiation could affect the judgement of panel. Then the parameters of the model for estimating the direct costs were classified as U- and V-types, and two-dimensional Monte Carlo analysis was applied to quantify the overall economic risk. The resulting median of the overall economic risk was about 3.9% of the gross domestic products(GDP) of Korea in 2006. When the cost of electricity loss, the highest direct cost, was not taken into account, the overall economic risk was reduced to 2.2% of GDP. This assessment can be used as a reference for justifying the radiological emergency planning and preparedness.

• Journal of Information Technology and Architecture
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.451-466
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• 2013

기업들은 정보기술 리스크(IT Risk)에 대하여 어떻게 대처하고 있을까? 금융기관이나 공공기관은 태생적으로 이미 위험관리를 적극적으로 수행하고 있다. 정보기술에 대한 위험관리도 지난 10년동안 전산망 마비, 해킹 사고, 디도스 공격, 고객정보 유출 등을 겪으면서 적극적으로 대응해 왔다. 특히 2011년 농협사태는 IT 성과보다는 IT 보안을 훨씬 중요하게 보는 계기가 되었다. IT 보안 인력과 예산이 대폭 강화되고 망분리 사업이 추진되는 것이 대표적인 사례이다. 하지만 그동안 IT 위험관리는 특정 기술에 대한 사전 대응 및 사후 대응 강화에 집중되었다. 현재 IT 위험관리는 단편적 관리에서 종합적 관리로 전환되고 있다. 최근에 많은 기업들이 전사 차원의 정보기술 리스크 거버넌스(IT Risk Governance) 체계를 구축하고 있거나 구축하는 계획을 갖고 있다. 하지만 아직도 IT보안은 전사적으로 통합되지 못하였으며, IT 위험관리 프로세스는 조직에 내재화 되지 못 하였고, IT 성과관리와 연계성은 고려하지 못하고 있다. 본 논문에서는 IT 관리와 기술을 효과적으로 연계하기 위하여, 그리고 IT 성과와 IT 위험을 균형되게 관리하기 위하여 엔터프라이즈아키텍처(EA: Enterprise Architecture) 활용을 제안하고자 한다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• autumn
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• pp.242-245
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• 2003

Most engineering tasks require collaboration between many users in major hospital Construction Projects that have many risks. Loss of cost and change orders occurred in factors such as information exchange, misunderstandings, advanced Technology in hospital projects. Moreover, changes in context, costs, requirements, deadlines, etc. require negotiation of issues that may modify important project characteristics. Each part of the major hospital construction projects have been rapidly changed technology of equipments. Therefore it is a major challenge to make a high level of communication and to have mutual understanding. The objective of this paper is to reduce risks for the design process and construction process of hospital projects.

• The Korean Society of Law and Medicine
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.139-207
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• 2022

As various state restrictions on individual freedom were imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic, concerns have been raised that excessive infringements on fundamental rights were indiscriminately permitted based on the public interest of preventing infectious diseases. Therefore, the question of how to set acceptable limits of liberty restrictions on individuals has emerged. However, since the phenomenon of infections spreading to the population is only predicted statistically, how to deal with the risk of the infected individual as a subject of legal analysis has become a problem. In the absence of a theoretical framework of legal analysis of risk, the risk of infected individuals during the pandemic was not analyzed strictly, and proportionality review of infection prevention measures was often only an abstract comparison of the importance of public interest and individual rights. Therefore, this research aims to conduct a theoretical review on how risk can be conceptualized legally in a public health crisis, and to develop a theoretical framework for proportionality review of the risk of liberty-limiting measures during a pandemic. Chapter 2 analyzes the legal philosophical concepts of risk, which are the basis for liberty restrictions during a public health crisis, and applies and extends them to the pandemic. Chapter 3 reviews previous studies related to liberty restriction measures in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, and points out they have a limitation that specific criteria for the proportionality review of public health measures in the pandemic have not been presented. Accordingly, Chapter 3 specifies the methodological framework for proportionality review, referring to the theoretical discussion on risks in Chapter 2. Chapter 4 reviews the legitimacy of gathering restriction orders, applying the theoretical discussion in Chapter 2 and the criteria for proportionality review established in Chapter 3. In particular, Section 4 examines logic of proportionality review in judicial precedents over the ban on gathering restrictions implemented in the COVID-19 pandemic. In analyzing the precedents, the logic of proportionality review in each case is critically reviewed and reconstructed based on the theoretical framework presented in this research.

• Journal of The Korea Institute of Healthcare Architecture
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.45-56
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• 2024

Purpose: It is important to note that the relative importance of risk factors should be identified to successfully complete the remodeling project of general hospital. Approached by analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the present study aimed to systematically evaluate the risk factors for remodeling of general hospital. Methods: The present work classified the risk factors of general hospital remodeling into four major categories including the requirements survey stage, planning and design stage, dismantling and construction stage, and maintenance stage. In addition, four sub-categories were derived from each major category factor. Furthermore, five major categories and four subcategories were selected to be considered from the perspectives of two stakeholders of contractor and constructor. The relative importance of the major and sub-categories factors was calculated using the AHP technique on the survey data collected from 49 respondents who participated in the survey study. Results: The results indicate that, the risk factor of requirements survey stage was found to be the most important risk factor to consider among the four major categories of factors. Also, insufficient preliminary investigation, design inconsistencies in architecture/mechanics/electricity, occurrence of safety accidents, and insufficient review of various equipment capacities and performances were found to have the highest priorities of each subcategory factor group included in the four major categories. From the perspective of contractor, the error in predicting the construction period was found to be the most important risk factor. The occurrence of safety accidents during construction was found to be the most important risk factor to be considered by constructor. Implications: The result of the current work should provide important insights and guidelines for the risk management activity that contributes to controlling the project time, cost, and scope required for general hospital remodeling.