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An Analysis of Effectiveness of Economic Sanctions and Inducements and Implications for Policies towards North Korea Based on Theoretical Applications from Prospect Theory (경제제재와 경제지원의 효과 분석 및 대북정책에 대한 시사점: 전망이론적 논의)

  • Park, Ji-Youn;Jo, Dongho
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2013
  • Economic sanctions and inducements are types of 'policy instruments' based on 'economic tools' to influence other international actors. Ongoing debates on sanctions and inducements have exposed drawbacks for relying on individual case studies. There are some studies in the literature that attempt theoretical analysis of sanctions and inducements, but they are mostly based on rational choice theory. In reality, however, there exist so many cases that cannot be explained by rational choice theory. These are called anomalies or exceptions. The literature introduces specific variables to interpret these anomalies and thus sacrifice the universality of the theory. From this point of view, prospect theory would present an effective tool to analyze economic sanctions and inducements. It is a behavioral economic theory that tries to model a decisions making process in reality. The theory says that people make decisions based on subjective value of losses and gains from an individual reference point, and that people evaluate these losses and gains using heuristics. Thus prospect theory could offer a different frame which has greater explanatory range without adding new variables. As a result of this study, target's losses of 'back down' towards economic sanctions loom larger when the reference point level increases, therefore, the effectiveness of sanctions decreases. However, target's losses of 'stand firm' towards economic inducements loom larger under the same condition of reference point, therefore, the effectiveness of inducements increases. The findings of the paper suggest meaningful implications to the economic policy towards North Korea.

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Economic Sanction and DPRK Trade - Estimating the Impact of Japan's Sanction in the 2000s - (대북 경제제재와 북한무역 - 2000년대 일본 대북제재의 영향력 추정 -)

  • Lee, Suk
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.93-143
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    • 2010
  • This paper estimates the impact of Japan's economic sanction on DPRK trade in the 2000s. It conceptualizes the effects of sanction on DPRK trade, econometrically tests whether such effects exist in case of Japan's sanction using currently available DPRK trade statistics, and measures the size of the effects by correcting and reconfiguring the deficiencies of the currently available DPRK trade statistics. The main findings of the paper are as follows. First, Japan's sanction can have two different effects on DPRK trade: 'Sanction Country Effect' and "Third Country Effect.' The former means that the sanction diminishes DPRK trade with Japan while the latter refers to the effects on DPRK trade with other countries as well. The third country effect can arise not simply because the DPRK changes its trade routes to circumvent the sanction, but because the sanction forces the DPRK to readjust its major trade items and patterns. Second, currently no official DPRK trade statistics are available. Thus, the so-called mirror data referring to DPRK trading partners' statistics should be employed for the analysis of the sanction effects. However, all currently available mirror data suffer from three fundamental problems: 1) they may omit the real trade partners of the DPRK; 2) they may confuse ROK trade with DPRK trade; 3) they cannot distinguish non-commercial trade from commercial trade, whereas only the latter concerns Japan's sanction. Considering those problems, we have to adopt the following method in order to reach a reasonable conclusion about the sanction effect. That is, we should repeat the same analysis using all different mirror data currently available, which include KOTRA, IMF and UN Commodity Trade Statistics, and then discuss only the common results from them. Third, currently available mirror data make the following points. 1) DPRK trade is well explained by the gravity model. 2) Japan's sanction has not only the sanction country effect but also the third country effect on DPRK trade. 3) The third country effect occurs differently on DPRK export and import. In case of export, the mirror statistics reveal positive (+) third country effects on all of the major trade partners of the DPRK, including South Korea, China and Thailand. However, on DPRK import, such third country effects are not statistically significant even for South Korea and China. 4) This suggests that Japan's sanction has greater effects on DPRK import rather than its export. Fourth, as far as DPRK export is concerned, it is possible to resolve the abovementioned fundamental problems of mirror data and thus reconstruct more accurate statistics on DPRK trade. Those reconstructed statistics lead us to following conclusions. 1) Japan's economic sanction diminished DPRK's export to Japan from 2004 to 2006 by 103 million dollars on annual average (Sanction Country Effect). It comprises around 60 percent of DPRK's export to Japan in 2003. 2) However, for the same period, the DPRK diverted its exports to other countries to cope up with Japan's sanction, and as a result its export to other countries increased by 85 million dollars on annual average (Third Country Effect). 3) This means that more than 80 per cent of the sanction country effect was made up for by the third country effect. And the actual size of impact that Japan's sanction made on DPRK export in total was merely 30 million dollars on annual average. 4) The third country effect occurred mostly in inter-Korean trade. In fact, Japan's sanction increased DPRK export to the ROK by 72 million dollars on annual average. In contrast, there was no statistically significant increase in DPRK export to China caused by Japan's sanction. 5) It means that the DPRK confronted Japan's sanction and mitigated its impact primarily by using inter-Korean trade and thus the ROK. Fifth, two things should be noted concerning the fourth results above. 1) The results capture the third country effect caused only by trade transfer. Facing Japan's sanction, the DPRK could transfer its existing trade with Japan to other countries. Also it could change its main export items and increase the export of those new items to other countries as mentioned in the first result. However, the fourth results above reflect only the former, not the latter. 2) Although Japan's sanction did not make a huge impact on DPRK export, it might not be necessarily true for DPRK import. Indeed the currently available mirror statistics suggest that Japan's sanction has greater effects on DPRK import. Hence it would not be wise to argue that Japan's sanction did not have much impact on DPRK trade in general, simply using the fourth result above.

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Energy Consumption in Vacuum-Press Drying of Some Softwood Lumbers of Different Thicknesses (침엽수 제재두께별 가열판 압체식 진공건조의 소요 에너지)

  • Jung, Hee-Suk;Lee, Jun-Ho;Kang, Wook;Lee, Nam-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.9-15
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    • 2001
  • Specific energy curves for water removal in vacuum-press drying of different thick softwoods of red pine (Pinus densiflora), white pine (Pinus koraiensis), larch (L. leptolepis) and Western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla) were split into three sections: increased slowly, fairly constant, and increased rapidly. Calculated specific energy for 3, 5, 7, 9 and 11cm thick lumber was a value of 0.483, 0.649, 0.814, 0.977 and 1.138kWh/kg of water, respectively. Specific energy almost linearly increased as lumber thickness increased, and specific energy for severe schedule was less than that for mild schedule. Average specific energy was 0.712kWh/kg and vacuum-press drying consumed less energy as compared with any other drying methods.

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Relationship between Softwood Lumber Thicknesses and Drying Rate and Drying Time Factor in Vacuum-Press Drying (가열판 압체식 진공건조에서 침엽수 제재두께와 건조속도 및 건조시간계수의 관계)

  • Jung, Hee-Suk;Lee, Jun-Ho;Kang, Wook;Lee, Nam-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2001
  • Red pine (Pinus densiflora), white pine (Pinus koraiensis), larch (Larix leptolepis) and Western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla) lumber were vacuum-press dried under three drying schedules to investigate current moisture contents (MC), drying rates and drying time factors related to five lumber thicknesses of 3, 5, 7, 9 and 11cm. Current MC could be estimated by drying factors such as lumber thickness, initial Me and drying time. Average drying rate from 30% to 15% Me was the highest for Western hemlock below fiber satuartion point, red pine, white pine and larch in the order of their magnitude. Drying rate curvilinearly decreased as lumber thickness increased. Drying time factor curvilinearly increased as lumber thickness increased.

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The influence of Perceived Parental reject on the School Adjustment: Mediating effect of Aggression and Social anxiety (아동이 지각한 거부·제재 양육이 학교적응에 미치는 영향: 공격성과 사회불안의 매개효과)

  • Kim, Yeonsoo;Kim, Sucheung
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.261-269
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of the study was to investigate the relationship among children's perception of parenting style, their social anxiety, aggression, and school adjustment. A total of 267 children(male 117, female 150) and 10 homeroom teachers participated. Each child completed questionnaires on perception of parenting style, and social anxiety. Children's aggression and school adjustment was measured by their homeroom teachers' reports. The results of the structural equation model showed that children's perception of parenting style high in rejection and control significantly influenced aggression as well as school adjustment, but didn't influence social anxiety. Both parenting style high in rejection and control and aggression had significant effect on school adjustment. Our results showed that parenting style high in rejection and control directly influenced school adjustment, and mediated by their aggression.

Kimchi Quality Affected by the Addition of Grapefruit Seed Extract Powder (자몽종자추출물 분말제재를 첨가한 김치의 저장성 연장)

  • 박우포;장덕규
    • Food Science and Preservation
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.288-292
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    • 2003
  • Grapefruit seed extract powder (GFSEP), which was made with grapefruit seed extract and calcium carbonate, was investigated to retard the fermentation rate. The mixing ratios of GFSEP to salted Chinese cabbage were 0.1, 0.3 and 0.5%. Quality characteristics of kimchi such as pH, titratable acidity, reducing sugar content and microbial loads were measured during fermentation at 10$^{\circ}C$. pH and reducing sugar content of control and kimchi sample with 0.1% GFSEP showed decreases until 10 days, and then attained to stabilized levels. Kimchi samples with 0.3% and 0.5% GFSEP maintained a higher pH and reducing sugar content, while microbial load was lower than others. Based on the pH and tit ratable acidity, kimchi samples with GFSEP prolong the shelf life about 3~10 days.

Regulation of Violence: Violence Standards and Sanction (폭력물 규제: 심의규정과 제재조치 위반에 관한 분석)

  • Kim, Yoojung
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.14 no.9
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    • pp.164-175
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study is to confirm violence regulation of television. Television programs that infringed the standards of violence and were sanctioned, were analyzed in terms of broadcasting violence standards and the level of sanction imposed, according to network and cable television. The results show that both network and cable television were mainly imposed on sanction of caution and recommendation. And violation of article 36 was most. But there were differences in violation of articles 36, 39, 51 between network and cable television.

The significance of diagnosis and treatment planning in periapical lesion overfilled with calcium hydroxide paste (수산화칼슘제재의 과충전이 발생한 치근단 병소 증례에서 진단과 치료 계획의 중요성)

  • Jung, Kyoung-Hwa;Kwon, Eun-Young;Choi, Youn-Kyung;Kim, So-Yeun;Jeon, Hye-Mi;Park, Jeong-Kil
    • Journal of Dental Rehabilitation and Applied Science
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.95-100
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    • 2021
  • Calcium hydroxide has been widely used for root canal dressing material in endodontic treatment. This report describes that when the accurate diagnosis and proper nonsurgical endodontic retreatment is applied to periapical lesion with accidentally extruded calcium hydroxide paste, the lesion can be successfully treated. Overfilled calcium hydroxide can affect the healing process, so the overextension of calcium hydroxide agent should be avoided.

An Application of Prosocial Behavior Theory on Outdoor Recreation Management (실외 휴양지 관리에서 사회심리학적 이론의 적용 -Prosocial Behavior 이론을 중심으로-)

  • ;James H. Gramann
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.127-140
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    • 1992
  • 본 연구에서는 Schwartz의 Norm Activation 이론을 도입하여, 실 외휴양지에서 환경훼손행위 관리를 위한 Communicatin 정책의 이론적 배 경으로 도입되어 있는 Prosocial Behavior 이론의 적용성을 실험하였다. 본 연구는 실험실에서 자체개발한 설문지를 통하여 수행되었으며, 미국 Texas A&M 대학교의 남녀 대학생 340명이 참가하였다. 본 실험의 결과 실외휴 양 환경에 대한 훼손행위(Depreciative Behavior)의 인과응보적인 결과를 알려 주는 Information이 실외휴양지 관리에 바람직한 행동의사를 활성화 시키는데 효과적인 반면, 훼손행위에 대한 법적인 제재조치를 설명하는 위 협적 Information은 바람직한 행동의지를 활성화시키지는 못했다. 이용자의 개인적인 성향인자인 사회적 책임감(Social Responsibility)의 고저는 사회 에 바람직한 행동의지의 활성화와 직접적인 관계가 있었다. 그러나, 사회적 책임감의 고저가 환경훼손행위에 대한 인과응보적인 Information이나 제재 조치에 대한 위협적인 Information과의 교호작용은 없었다. 통계학적으로 유의성은 적으나 사회적 책임감이 높은 시험구의 경우 제재조치에 대한 위 협적인 Information에 대한 반작용이 컸으나, 사회적인 책임감이 높은 실험 구의 경우 제재조치에 대한 위협적인 Information이 효과적인 결과를 볼 때, 이용자의 바람직한 행동의지에 역으로 작용하는 Communication정책에 대한 체계적인 연구가 요구된다.

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Effects of Fish and Bacterium on the Morphological and Growth of Cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa (박테리아와 어류가 유해조류 Microcystis aeruginosa의 성장 및 형태변화에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Bo-Ra;Han, Myung-Soo;Kim, Baik-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.38 no.3 s.113
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    • pp.420-428
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    • 2005
  • Effects of three biological control agents such as Xanthobacter autotrophycus, Tanichthys albonubes and Oryzias latipes on the morphology and growth of cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa were studied. The experiments were consisted of six treatments of living organism (LO) and culture filtered water of three organisms (CFW). Three LOs effectively decreased the density of M. aeruginosa, and then cyanobacteria hardy showed in the microscopic field after 5 days of cultivation. All LO and CFW agents induced the colonial formation of cyanobacterium M. aeruginosa, although there were little differences in colony formation according to the kinds, density and type of treatment. In particular, the higher density treatment of fish CFW induced effectively the colony formation of cyanobacteria, compared to the bacterial LO and CFW. Thus, the application of bio agents to control the cyanobacterial bloom is needed to the further study to diminish the adverse effects such as the enhancement of colony formation towards on the new bloom against the aquatic ecosystem.