• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.46 no.8
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• pp.807-819
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• 2013

This study proposes a new methodology for future water balance projection considering climate change by assigning a weight to each scenario instead of inputting future streamflows based on GCMs into a water balance model directly. K-nearest neighbor algorithm was employed to assign weights and streamflows in non-flood period (October to the following June) was selected as the criterion for assigning weights. GCM-driven precipitation was input to TANK model to simulate future streamflow scenarios and Quantile Mapping was applied to correct bias between GCM hindcast and historical data. Based on these bias-corrected streamflows, different weights were assigned to each streamflow scenarios to calculate water shortage for the projection periods; 2020s (2010~2039), 2050s (2040~2069), and 2080s (2070~2099). As a result by applying the proposed methodology to project water shortage over the Korean Peninsula, average water shortage for 2020s is projected to increase to 10~32% comparing to the basis (1967~2003). In addition, according to getting decreased in streamflows in non-flood period gradually by 2080s, average water shortage for 2080s is projected to increase up to 97% (516.5 million $m^3/yr$) as maximum comparing to the basis. While the existing research on climate change gives radical increase in future water shortage, the results projected by the weighting method shows conservative change. This study has significance in the applicability of water balance projection regarding climate change, keeping the existing framework of national water resources planning and this lessens the confusion for decision-makers in water sectors.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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• v.59 no.1
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• pp.301-327
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• 2007

The purpose of this study is to examine the timing and the risk factors associated with the adoption of legally-free foster children. The sample of the study was drawn from foster care files of Adoption and Foster Care Analysis and Reporting System(AFCARS) in 32 states between October 1998 (FY 1999) and September 2002(FY 2002). The timing post-TPR to adoption was examined by plotting the Kaplan-Meier cumulative hazard function for adoption and by plotting the KM hazard functions stratified by child's race and child's age at TPR. Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis was used to identify risk factors for adoption of legally-free foster children after TPR. The hazard of adoption was very low immediately after TPR but increased steadily starting at 3 months and then declined after 20 months. The cumulative hazard functions for White non-Hispanic children and Black non-Hispanic children crossed over at 13 months after TPR. Racial minority status, older age, and disability were negatively associated with the hazard of adoption. Physical abuse, sexual abuse had the lower hazard for adoption compared by neglect. Caretaker's inability to cope had the slightly lower hazard for adoption whereas inadequate housing showed the slightly greater hazard for adoption. Characteristics of foster care services turned into be powerful predictors of adoption. Specifically, legally-free children placed in pre-adoptive homes, those who shared the same racial/ethnic background with their foster caretakers, and those who were placed in two-parent families have a greater likelihood of adoption. The findings highlight the importance of foster care service provisions after TPR to facilitate adoption of legally-free foster children. Furthermore, a more substantial resources and targeted support for foster children who experience physical abuse and sexual abuse in need of adoption should be provided for moving the foster children into permanency.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.111-137
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• 2006

The purpose of this study is to analyze how to change the fertility behavior at each parity after/before the economic crisis, and to find its significant determinants. The study assumes that because the socioeconomic changes have significant effects on the individual's fertility behavior, the individual's fertility behaviors and the determinants affecting fertility at each parity may change with economic crisis. Such assumption has been proven in this study. After the economic crisis, Korean fertility behavior at each parity has changed. The proportion of women having no child has increased. However, women who want to have a second child or a third one are more likely to do so within shorter period after marriage. The rectangularization of fertility has appeared after the economic crisis, because women married at later ages tends to finish their child bearing within the short period, especially before age 35. Based on the multiple variable analysis, the determinants affecting the fertility behavior have changed after the economic crisis. Interestingly, the men's safety job have the positive effects on the first childbearing while the women's safety careers have the negative effects on it, after the economic crisis. Before the economic crisis, both do not have significant effects on the first childbearing. This findings point out the limitation of women career favor policy, which purpose to raise the fertility rates by making good environments for women having children to work comfortably without the anxiety of child care.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.37-50
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• 2020

Information security has become an important issue in the world. Various information and communication technologies, such as the Internet of Things, big data, cloud, and artificial intelligence, are developing, and the need for information security is increasing. Although the necessity of information security is expanding according to the development of information and communication technology, interest in information security investment is insufficient. In general, measuring the effect of information security investment is difficult, so appropriate investment is not being practice, and organizations are decreasing their information security investment. In addition, since the types and specification of information security measures are diverse, it is difficult to compare and evaluate the information security countermeasures objectively, and there is a lack of decision-making methods about information security investment. To develop the organization, policies and decisions related to information security are essential, and measuring the effect of information security investment is necessary. Therefore, this study proposes a method of constructing an investment portfolio for information security measures using game theory and derives an optimal defence probability. Using the two-person game model, the information security manager and the attacker are assumed to be the game players, and the information security countermeasures and information security threats are assumed as the strategy of the players, respectively. A zero-sum game that the sum of the players' payoffs is zero is assumed, and we derive a solution of a mixed strategy game in which a strategy is selected according to probability distribution among strategies. In the real world, there are various types of information security threats exist, so multiple information security measures should be considered to maintain the appropriate information security level of information systems. We assume that the defence ratio of the information security countermeasures is known, and we derive the optimal solution of the mixed strategy game using linear programming. The contributions of this study are as follows. First, we conduct analysis using real performance data of information security measures. Information security managers of organizations can use the methodology suggested in this study to make practical decisions when establishing investment portfolio for information security countermeasures. Second, the investment weight of information security countermeasures is derived. Since we derive the weight of each information security measure, not just whether or not information security measures have been invested, it is easy to construct an information security investment portfolio in a situation where investment decisions need to be made in consideration of a number of information security countermeasures. Finally, it is possible to find the optimal defence probability after constructing an investment portfolio of information security countermeasures. The information security managers of organizations can measure the specific investment effect by drawing out information security countermeasures that fit the organization's information security investment budget. Also, numerical examples are presented and computational results are analyzed. Based on the performance of various information security countermeasures: Firewall, IPS, and Antivirus, data related to information security measures are collected to construct a portfolio of information security countermeasures. The defence ratio of the information security countermeasures is created using a uniform distribution, and a coverage of performance is derived based on the report of each information security countermeasure. According to numerical examples that considered Firewall, IPS, and Antivirus as information security countermeasures, the investment weights of Firewall, IPS, and Antivirus are optimized to 60.74%, 39.26%, and 0%, respectively. The result shows that the defence probability of the organization is maximized to 83.87%. When the methodology and examples of this study are used in practice, information security managers can consider various types of information security measures, and the appropriate investment level of each measure can be reflected in the organization's budget.

• Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.17-28
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• 2004

Purpose: Even though there have been various efforts for the dying with dignity of terminal patients, no researches focused on the public attitudes. Methods: In February 2004, we sampled 1,055 persons over 20 years of age from the sixteen cities and local districts of Korea through the quota sampling method according to their gender, age, and location. We conducted a telephone survey with a structured questionnaire on the attitudes toward dying with dignity and hospice palliative care. Results: The most important conditions for the dying with dignity on the patients' views were 'removing burdens for other people' (27.8%). Over the half of the samples chose their home as a preference for place of death (54.8%). 82.3% of the respondents agreed to the idea of withdrawing the medically futile life-sustaining treatment. Fifty seven percents of the answered public said that they intended to use the hospice service in case of terminal illness. Eighty percents thought that health care insurance should cover hospice service, and 80.9% gave positive response to the necessity of advance directives. Respondents emphasized 'the financial support for the terminal patients' (29.8%), 'covering hospice service with health insurance' (16.5%), and 'the education and public relation for settlement of desirable dying culture and hospice service' (15.9%) as the roles and responsibilities of the government for the dying with dignity. Conclusion: This study shows that there is a possibility of significant consensus on hospice and palliative care system for the dying with dignity of patients and reduction of the suffering for their families among the general public.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.117-131
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• 2021

Urban development is continuously being carried out to stabilize housing supply. The importance of ecosystem services assessments considering the various urban spatial structures is emerging as land use change in the wake of urban development has impact on the provision of ecosystem services. However, few studies are available as to the effects of land use transition in agricultural land due to urban development on ecosystem services. The purpose of this study is to examine the applicability of decision-making in the urban planning process by analyzing the impact of land use change on ecosystem services due to urban development. Therefore, the scenario was set on before and after the city development, targeting Namyangju Wangsuk Zone 1 and InVEST model was used to compare and analyze changes in value of ecosystem services. Analysis results of ecosystem services before the urban development, it turned out that habitat quality and water yield increased overtime but carbon storage and crop production decreased. Analysis results of ecosystem services after the urban development indicated that all items in ecosystem services by scenario decreased more than in 2018. Among the scenarios of urban development, compact city had the lowest value of water resource supply but had the highest value in terms of habitat quality, carbon storage amount, and crop production. The study results demonstrate that the compact city has positive effects on ecosystem services and is expected to be used as the basic data for supporting policy decision-making in the establishment of future urban development and management plans.

• Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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• v.46 no.1
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• pp.12-22
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• 2021

Backgrounds: Proper distribution and supply of physicians are factors that affect national health care systems. This study investigated the payment distribution levels and the determinants that influence the salary levels of hospital hired physicians. Methods: We analyzed 4,014 job advertisements posted on an internet invitation information site about physician recruitment from May 2016 to May 2019. We used univariate analysis to determine the relationship between average monthly salary and the other related variables. Multiple regression analysis was used to determine the predictors of physician salary level. Results: The average monthly salary for the service physician was 15.4 million won, highest for orthopedic surgeons with 22.24 million won, and lowest for diagnostic laboratory physician with 11.4 million won. The factors significantly associated with average monthly salary were; non-major specialty, housing provision, no severance pay, and incentives(p<0.05). Non-major specialty, incentives, and the regions were predictors of the average standardized monthly salary(p<0.05). Conclusion: Factors associated with average monthly salary as revealed by this study were; medical specialty, hospital regional location, housing provision, payment of retirement allowance, and payment of other incentives respectively. However, this study was a cross-sectional study, and further studies will be required.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.105-119
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• 2023

Water supply is decreasing due to climate change, and coastal and island regions are highly dependent on groundwater, reducing the amount of available water. For sustainable water supply in coastal and island regions, it is necessary to accurately diagnose the current condition and efficiently distribute and manage water. For a precise analysis of the groundwater flow in the coastal island region, submarine fresh groundwater discharge was calculated for the Seongsan basin in the eastern part of Jeju Island. Two methods were used to estimate the thickness of the fresh groundwater. One method employed vertical interpolation of measured electrical conductivity in a multi depth monitoring well; the other used theoretical Ghyben-Herzberg ratio. The value using the Ghyben-Herzberg ratio makes it impossible to accurately estimate the changing salt-saltwater interface, and the value analyzed by electrical conductivity can represent the current state of the freshwater-saltwater interface. Observed parameter was distributed on a virtual grid. The average of submarine fresh groundwater discharge fluxes for the virtual grid was determined as the watershed's representative flux. The submarine fresh groundwater discharge and flux distribution by year were also calculated at the basin scale. The method using electrical conductivity estimated the submarine fresh groundwater discharge from 2018 to 2020 to be 6.27 × 10⁶ m³/year; the method using the Ghyben-Herzberg ratio estimated a discharge of 10.87 × 10⁶ m³/year. The results presented in this study can be used as basis data for policies that determine sustainable water supply by using precise water budget analysis in coastal and island areas.

• Economic Analysis
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.84-132
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• 2020

A central bank infers market expectations of future yields based on yield curves. The central bank needs to precisely understand the changes in market expectations of future yields in order to have a more effective monetary policy. This need explains why a range of models have attempted to produce yield curves and market expectations that are as accurate as possible. Alongside the development of bond markets, the interconnectedness between them and macroeconomic factors has deepened, and this has rendered understanding of what macroeconomic variables affect yield curves even more important. However, the existence of various theories about determinants of yields inevitably means that previous studies have applied different macroeconomics variables when estimating yield curves. This indicates model uncertainties and naturally poses a question: Which model better estimates yield curves? Put differently, which variables should be applied to better estimate yield curves? This study employs the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model and takes the Bayesian approach to variable selection in order to ensure precision in estimating yield curves and market expectations of future yields. Bayesian variable selection may be an effective estimation method because it is expected to alleviate problems arising from a priori selection of the key variables comprising a model, and because it is a comprehensive approach that efficiently reflects model uncertainties in estimations. A comparison of Bayesian variable selection with the models of previous studies finds that the question of which macroeconomic variables are applied to a model has considerable impact on market expectations of future yields. This shows that model uncertainties exert great influence on the resultant estimates, and that it is reasonable to reflect model uncertainties in the estimation. Those implications are underscored by the superior forecasting performance of Bayesian variable selection models over those models used in previous studies. Therefore, the use of a Bayesian variable selection model is advisable in estimating yield curves and market expectations of yield curves with greater exactitude in consideration of the impact of model uncertainties on the estimation.

• Asia Marketing Journal
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.27-48
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• 2011

The Chinese counterfeits has begun to gain great attention recently because of the drastic increase in its volume. The consumption of counterfeit harms to manufacturer who spend millions of dollars to create and develop new product. The counterfeits in Chinese can cause international dispute and lower national reputation. The purpose of this study were to examine if the buyers of counterfeits tend to care more about interpersonal relationship than non-buyers among Chinese. Data were gathered by surveying Chinese consumer living in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou metropolitan area using convenient sampling, and 480 questionnaires were used in the statistical analysis. In analyzing data, descriptive statistics, factor analysis, structural equation modeling with AMOS were conducted. The results of this study were follows, first, attitude toward counterfeits was classified into three factors such as interpersonal relationship, perception, and involvement. It is general belief that attitudes toward counterfeits were correlated with on brand attachment, however this study show that the buyers of counterfeits tended to purchase counterfeit goods as more alternatives of genuine(original) product than non-buyers. Perhaps, the buyers of counterfeits tended to have lower consumer ethics than non-buyers because they value counterfeit high. It is generally accepted that both a producer and a buyer violate the laws, but they are rather generous for buyer. The results of this study suggest consumers' attitude towards counterfeit need to be changed, following consumer education and strict law enforcement. Based on these results, global brand marketing strategies for luxury goods were suggested.