• Title/Summary/Keyword: 정규오차회귀모델

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A Normalization and Modeling of Segmental Duration (음운지속시간의 정규화와 모델링)

  • 김인영
    • Proceedings of the Acoustical Society of Korea Conference
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    • 1998.08a
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    • pp.99-104
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    • 1998
  • 한국어의 자연스러운 음성합성을 위해 280문장에 대하여 남성화자 1명이 발성한 문음성 데이터를 음운 세그먼트, 음운 라벨링, 음운별 품사 태깅하여 음성 코퍼스를 구축하였다. 이 문 음성 코퍼스를 사용하여 음운환경, 품사 뿐만 아니라 구문 구조에 이하여 음운으 lwlthrtlrks이 어떻게 변화하는가에 대하여 xhdrPwjrdfmh 분석하였다. 음운 지속시간을 보다 정교하게 예측하기 위하여, 각 음운의 고유 지속시간의 영향이 배제된 정규화 음운지속시간을 회귀트리를 이용하여 모델화하였다. 평가결과, 기존의 회귀트리를 이용한 음운지속시간 모델에 의한 예측오차는 87%정도가 20ms 이내 이었지만, 정규화 음운 지속시간 모델에 의한 예측 오차는 89% 정도가 20ms 이내로 더욱 정교하게 예측되었다.

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Predictive Optimization Adjusted With Pseudo Data From A Missing Data Imputation Technique (결측 데이터 보정법에 의한 의사 데이터로 조정된 예측 최적화 방법)

  • Kim, Jeong-Woo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.200-209
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    • 2019
  • When forecasting future values, a model estimated after minimizing training errors can yield test errors higher than the training errors. This result is the over-fitting problem caused by an increase in model complexity when the model is focused only on a given dataset. Some regularization and resampling methods have been introduced to reduce test errors by alleviating this problem but have been designed for use with only a given dataset. In this paper, we propose a new optimization approach to reduce test errors by transforming a test error minimization problem into a training error minimization problem. To carry out this transformation, we needed additional data for the given dataset, termed pseudo data. To make proper use of pseudo data, we used three types of missing data imputation techniques. As an optimization tool, we chose the least squares method and combined it with an extra pseudo data instance. Furthermore, we present the numerical results supporting our proposed approach, which resulted in less test errors than the ordinary least squares method.

A Study on Segmental Duratio Control for the Kroean TTS (한국어 문음성 변환기의 음운지속시간 제어에 관한 연구)

  • 김인영
    • Proceedings of the Acoustical Society of Korea Conference
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    • 1998.06c
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    • pp.143-146
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    • 1998
  • 자연스러운 한국어의 음성합성을 위해서는 음운의 지속시간의 제어가 매우 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 POW3848 어절에 대한 음성 데이터에 대해 음운 세그먼트, 음운 라벨링, 품사 태깅을 행한 음성 데이터베이스를 구축하여 한국어 음운의 지속시간을 변화시키는 시간 특징을 통계적으로 분석하였다. 이 시간 특징들 중 변화 폭이 큰 요인들을 제어요소로 각 음운의 고유길이를 최대한 배제하고 단지 음운 발성 환경의 영향에 의한 지속시간 변화만을 고려하는 정규화 지속시간에 대한 회귀트리로 한국어 음운 지속시간을 모델화 하였다. 제안된 음운 지속시간 모델을 실시간 제어 알고리즘으로 구현하여 평가한 결과, 음운 지속시간 예측오차의 88% 정도가 25ms이내 이었고 예측치와 관측치 간의 다중 상관관계수는 0.92 정도로 평가되어, 제안된 모델의 타당성이 입증되었다.

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Multi-objective Optimization of Marine 3/2WAY Pneumatic Valve using Compromise Decision-Making Method (절충의사결정방법을 이용한 선박용 3/2WAY 공압밸브의 다목적 최적설계)

  • Kim, Jun-Oh;Baek, Seok-Heum;Kim, Tae-Woo;Kang, Sangmo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Process Engineers
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.81-90
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    • 2013
  • A study on the flow-structure characteristics of marine 3/2WAY pneumatic valve is essential for optimizing the performance of ship engines. It is important that the valve has desirable safety factor and reduced weight from safety and economic point of view. In this paper, flow-structure characteristics of pneumatic valve is obtained by being optimized based on the proper design criteria. The air with the pressure of 30 bar is the working fluid which is made to fill in the tack in short time. This time is defined as the filling time. On optimum design by considering the flow-structure characteristics, the approach is based on (1) the mathematical formulation of design decisions using the compromise decision-making method, and (2) the approximation technique of response surfaces. The methodology is demonstrated as the multi-objective optimization tool to improve the performance of marine 3/2WAY pneumatic valve.

Short-Term Load Forecasting Model Development Through Analysis on Power Demand during Chuseok Holiday (추석 연휴 전력수요 특성 분석을 통한 단기수요 예측 모형 개발)

  • Kwon, Oh-Sung;Park, R.;Song, K.;Joo, Sung-Kwan;Park, Jeong-Do;Cho, Burm-Sup;Shin, Ki-Jun;Lee, Ik-Jong
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2011.07a
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    • pp.608-609
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    • 2011
  • 전력수요 예측 오차가 큰 추석 연휴 및 전, 후일 전력수요 예측의 정확성을 향상시키기 위해 과거 추석 연휴 및 전, 후일에 대한 전력수요 특성을 분석하고 최대/최소 전력 예측을 위한 퍼지 입력데이터 선정 방법과 24시간 예측을 위한 정규화에 필요한 입력 데이터 선정방법을 개발하여 퍼지 선형회귀분석 모델을 사용하여 2006년에서 2010년까지 5개년의 사례연구를 통해 알고리즘의 우수성을 검증하였다.

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A Study on the Inference Model of In-use Vehicles Emission Distribution according to the Vehicle Mileage (주행거리별 운행차 배출가스 분포 추정 모델에 관한 연구)

  • 김현우
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.85-92
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    • 2002
  • To investigate the safety of the in-use vehicles emission against the tail-pipe emission regulation, in-use vehicles emission trend according to vehicle mileage should be known. But it is impossible to collect all vehicles emission data In order to know that. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a statistically meaningful inference method that can be used generally to estimate in-use vehicles emissions distribution according to the vehicle mileage with relatively less in-use vehicles emission data. To do this, a linear regression model that solved the problems of data normality and common variance of error was studied. As a way that can secure the data normality, In(emission) instead of emission itself was used as a sampled data. And a reciprocal of mileage was suggested as a factor to secure common variance of error. As an example, 36 data of FTP-75 test were handled in this study. As a result, using average value and standard deviation at each mileage which were inferred from a linear regression model, probability density distribution and cumulative distribution of emissions according to the vehicle mileage were obtained and it was possible to predict the deterioration factor through full useful life mileage and also possible to decide whether those in-use vehicles will meet the tail-pipe emission regulations or not.

Estimation of Resistance Bias Factors for the Ultimate Limit State of Aggregate Pier Reinforced Soil (쇄석다짐말뚝으로 개량된 지반의 극한한계상태에 대한 저항편향계수 산정)

  • Bong, Tae-Ho;Kim, Byoung-Il;Kim, Sung-Ryul
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.17-26
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    • 2019
  • In this study, the statistical characteristics of the resistance bias factors were analyzed using a high-quality field load test database, and the total resistance bias factors were estimated considering the soil uncertainty and construction errors for the application of the limit state design of aggregate pier foundation. The MLR model by Bong and Kim (2017), which has a higher prediction performance than the previous models was used for estimating the resistance bias factors, and its suitability was evaluated. The chi-square goodness of fit test was performed to estimate the probability distribution of the resistance bias factors, and the normal distribution was found to be most suitable. The total variability in the nominal resistance was estimated including the uncertainty of undrained shear strength and construction errors that can occur during the aggregate pier construction. Finally, the probability distribution of the total resistance bias factors is shown to follow a log-normal distribution. The parameters of the probability distribution according to the coefficient of variation of total resistance bias factors were estimated by Monte Carlo simulation, and their regression equations were proposed for simple application.

Development of Measuring Technique for Milk Composition by Using Visible-Near Infrared Spectroscopy (가시광선-근적외선 분광법을 이용한 유성분 측정 기술 개발)

  • Choi, Chang-Hyun;Yun, Hyun-Woong;Kim, Yong-Joo
    • Food Science and Preservation
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.95-103
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    • 2012
  • The objective of this study was to develop models for the predict of the milk properties (fat, protein, SNF, lactose, MUN) of unhomogenized milk using the visible and near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopic technique. A total of 180 milk samples were collected from dairy farms. To determine optimal measurement temperature, the temperatures of the milk samples were kept at three levels ($5^{\circ}C$, $20^{\circ}C$, and $40^{\circ}C$). A spectrophotometer was used to measure the reflectance spectra of the milk samples. Multilinear-regression (MLR) models with stepwise method were developed for the selection of the optimal wavelength. The preprocessing methods were used to minimize the spectroscopic noise, and the partial-least-square (PLS) models were developed to prediction of the milk properties of the unhomogenized milk. The PLS results showed that there was a good correlation between the predicted and measured milk properties of the samples at $40^{\circ}C$ and at 400~2,500 nm. The optimal-wavelength range of fat and protein were 1,600~1,800 nm, and normalization improved the prediction performance. The SNF and lactose were optimized at 1,600~1,900 nm, and the MUN at 600~800 nm. The best preprocessing method for SNF, lactose, and MUN turned out to be smoothing, MSC, and second derivative. The Correlation coefficients between the predicted and measured fat, protein, SNF, lactose, and MUN were 0.98, 0.90, 0.82, 0.75, and 0.61, respectively. The study results indicate that the models can be used to assess milk quality.

Improvement and Validation of Convective Rainfall Rate Retrieved from Visible and Infrared Image Bands of the COMS Satellite (COMS 위성의 가시 및 적외 영상 채널로부터 복원된 대류운의 강우강도 향상과 검증)

  • Moon, Yun Seob;Lee, Kangyeol
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.37 no.7
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    • pp.420-433
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is to improve the calibration matrixes of 2-D and 3-D convective rainfall rates (CRR) using the brightness temperature of the infrared $10.8{\mu}m$ channel (IR), the difference of brightness temperatures between infrared $10.8{\mu}m$ and vapor $6.7{\mu}m$ channels (IR-WV), and the normalized reflectance of the visible channel (VIS) from the COMS satellite and rainfall rate from the weather radar for the period of 75 rainy days from April 22, 2011 to October 22, 2011 in Korea. Especially, the rainfall rate data of the weather radar are used to validate the new 2-D and 3-DCRR calibration matrixes suitable for the Korean peninsula for the period of 24 rainy days in 2011. The 2D and 3D calibration matrixes provide the basic and maximum CRR values ($mm\;h^{-1}$) by multiplying the rain probability matrix, which is calculated by using the number of rainy and no-rainy pixels with associated 2-D (IR, IR-WV) and 3-D (IR, IR-WV, VIS) matrixes, by the mean and maximum rainfall rate matrixes, respectively, which is calculated by dividing the accumulated rainfall rate by the number of rainy pixels and by the product of the maximum rain rate for the calibration period by the number of rain occurrences. Finally, new 2-D and 3-D CRR calibration matrixes are obtained experimentally from the regression analysis of both basic and maximum rainfall rate matrixes. As a result, an area of rainfall rate more than 10 mm/h is magnified in the new ones as well as CRR is shown in lower class ranges in matrixes between IR brightness temperature and IR-WV brightness temperature difference than the existing ones. Accuracy and categorical statistics are computed for the data of CRR events occurred during the given period. The mean error (ME), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean squire error (RMSE) in new 2-D and 3-D CRR calibrations led to smaller than in the existing ones, where false alarm ratio had decreased, probability of detection had increased a bit, and critical success index scores had improved. To take into account the strong rainfall rate in the weather events such as thunderstorms and typhoon, a moisture correction factor is corrected. This factor is defined as the product of the total precipitable waterby the relative humidity (PW RH), a mean value between surface and 500 hPa level, obtained from a numerical model or the COMS retrieval data. In this study, when the IR cloud top brightness temperature is lower than 210 K and the relative humidity is greater than 40%, the moisture correction factor is empirically scaled from 1.0 to 2.0 basing on PW RH values. Consequently, in applying to this factor in new 2D and 2D CRR calibrations, the ME, MAE, and RMSE are smaller than the new ones.

Estimation of Precipitable Water from the GMS-5 Split Window Data (GMS-5 Split Window 자료를 이용한 가강수량 산출)

  • 손승희;정효상;김금란;이정환
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.53-68
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    • 1998
  • Observation of hydrometeors' behavior in the atmosphere is important to understand weather and climate. By conventional observations, we can get the distribution of water vapor at limited number of points on the earth. In this study, the precipitable water has been estimated from the split window channel data on GMS-5 based upon the technique developed by Chesters et al.(1983). To retrieve the precipitable water, water vapor absorption parameter depending on filter function of sensor has been derived using the regression analysis between the split window channel data and the radiosonde data observed at Osan, Pohang, Kwangiu and Cheju staions for 4 months. The air temperature of 700 hPa from the Global Spectral Model of Korea Meteorological Administration (GSM/KMA) has been used as mean air temperature for single layer radiation model. The retrieved precipitable water for the period from August 1996 through December 1996 are compared to radiosonde data. It is shown that the root mean square differences between radiosonde observations and the GMS-5 retrievals range from 0.65 g/$cm^2$ to 1.09 g/$cm^2$ with correlation coefficient of 0.46 on hourly basis. The monthly distribution of precipitable water from GMS-5 shows almost good representation in large scale. Precipitable water is produced 4 times a day at Korea Meteorological Administration in the form of grid point data with 0.5 degree lat./lon. resolution. The data can be used in the objective analysis for numerical weather prediction and to increase the accuracy of humidity analysis especially under clear sky condition. And also, the data is a useful complement to existing data set for climatological research. But it is necessary to get higher correlation between radiosonde observations and the GMS-5 retrievals for operational applications.