• Title/Summary/Keyword: 전이확률

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Modeling the Spatial Dynamics of Urban Green Spaces in Daegu with a CA-Markov Model (CA-Markov 모형을 이용한 대구시 녹지의 공간적 변화 모델링)

  • Seo, Hyun-Jin;Jun, Byong-Woon
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.52 no.1
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    • pp.123-141
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    • 2017
  • This study predicted urban green spaces for 2020 based on two scenarios keeping or freeing the green-belt in the Daegu metropolitan city using a hybrid Cellular Automata(CA)-Markov model and analyzed the spatial dynamics of urban green spaces between 2009 and 2020 using a land cover change detection technique and spatial metrics. Markov chain analysis was employed to derive the transition probability for projecting land cover change into the future for 2020 based on two land cover maps in 1998 and 2009 provided by the Ministry of Environment. Multi-criteria evaluation(MCE) was adopted to develop seven suitability maps which were empirically derived in relation to the six restriction factors underlying the land cover change between the years 1998 and 2009. A hybrid CA-Markov model was then implemented to predict the land cover change over an 11 year period to 2020 based on two scenarios keeping or freeing the green-belt. The projected land cover for 2009 was cross-validated with the actual land cover in 2009 using Kappa statistics. Results show that urban green spaces will be remarkably fragmented in the suburban areas such as Dalseong-gun, Seongseo, Ansim and Chilgok in the year 2020 if the Daegu metropolitan city keeps its urbanization at current pace and in case of keeping the green-belt. In case of freeing the green-belt, urban green spaces will be fragmented on the fringes of the green-belt. It is thus required to monitor urban green spaces systematically considering the spatial change patterns identified by this study for sustainably managing them in the Daegu metropolitan city in the near future.

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A Study on the Stationary State of Military Pension using Markov Chains (마코프 체인을 이용한 군인연금 안정상태에 관한 연구)

  • Bae, Young-Min
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.61-69
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    • 2021
  • The military pension deficit is increasing due to an increase in the average life expectancy and pension option rate, and a significant reason for this is estimated to be a continued increase in the number of military pension recipients. In terms of the soundness of military pension finances, this paper uses the Markov chain model to validate the stability of the military group, suggesting the direction of future military pension system in terms of the ratio of pension receipts to employees, and verifying the feasibility of the method applied through verification. Through this paper, we have confirmed that the initial 45,270 military personnel converge to 43,141 after a certain period of time and reach a stable state, which is expected to help us to estimate the long term size of military pension recipients to confirm the direction of national financial support. Military man who are eligible for pensions for more than 20 years have a relatively low rate of turnover or retirement compared to ordinary private groups, making it easier to define their status and simplify state transition probabilities. Therefore, it is expected that the sustainability of the military pension will be confirmed from a long term perspective by viewing the military group as a system and applying it to the Markov chain model by checking the probability of transfer of status such as promotion, maintaining the current grade, and retirement during the period.

전이행렬을 이용한 수익데이터 분석

  • Im, Seung-Beom;Kang, Chang-Wan;Kim, Gyu-Gon
    • 한국데이터정보과학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2003.10a
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    • pp.107-113
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    • 2003
  • 최근 활발히 행하여지고 있는 금융 CRM(customer relationship management)의 주요 목적은 고객의 이해도 증진을 통하여 은행의 수익성을 높이는데 있으며 또한 그 과정에서 높은 수익과 낮은 수익을 주는 고객을 여러 가지 유형으로 나누어 관리에 효율성을 도모한다. 일반적으로 고객 세분화의 중요변수로 고객수익성을 고려하고 이러한 고객 세분화 결과에 의해 마케팅 시사점을 도출하게 된다. 본 연구에서는 고객 세분화 그룹에 따른 수익성 변동과정을 모형화하여 보다 효율적인 고객관계 관리를 가능하게 하는데 있다. 수익성 변동의 모형화 과정은 수익금액에 따라 고객을 몇 개의 범주로 분류하여 여러 기간에 걸쳐 나타내는 고객별 범주의 변화 추이를 전이행렬(transition matrix)로 나타내고 마코프 모형을 이용한 전이 확률의 추정을 통하여 다음 시점에서의 각 범주별 고객의 수를 예측 가능함을 보인다.

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Bayesian networks-based probabilistic forecasting of hydrological drought considering drought propagation (가뭄의 전이 현상을 고려한 수문학적 가뭄에 대한 베이지안 네트워크 기반 확률 예측)

  • Shin, Ji Yae;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Lee, Joo-Heon;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.11
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    • pp.769-779
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    • 2017
  • As the occurrence of drought is recently on the rise, the reliable drought forecasting is required for developing the drought mitigation and proactive management of water resources. This study developed a probabilistic hydrological drought forecasting method using the Bayesian Networks and drought propagation relationship to estimate future drought with the forecast uncertainty, named as the Propagated Bayesian Networks Drought Forecasting (PBNDF) model. The proposed PBNDF model was composed with 4 nodes of past, current, multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasted information and the drought propagation relationship. Using Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI), the PBNDF model was applied to forecast the hydrological drought condition at 10 gauging stations in Nakdong River basin. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis was applied to measure the forecast skill of the forecast mean values. The root mean squared error (RMSE) and skill score (SS) were employed to compare the forecast performance with previously developed forecast models (persistence forecast, Bayesian network drought forecast). We found that the forecast skill of PBNDF model showed better performance with low RMSE and high SS of 0.1~0.15. The overall results mean the PBNDF model had good potential in probabilistic drought forecasting.

The Unfinished Work Transition Probability Distribution of Modulated $n^*$D/D/1 Queue (확률적 $n^*$D/D/1 대기모형의 부하량 전이 확률 분포)

  • Lee, Sang-Cheon;Hong, Jung-Wan
    • IE interfaces
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.738-744
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    • 2000
  • This Paper presents a method for unfinished work transition probability distribution of modulated $n^*D/D/l$ queue with overload period. The Modulated $n^*D/D/l$ queue is well known as a performance analysis model of ATM multiplexer with superposition of homogeneous periodic on-off traffic sources. Theory of probability by conditioning and results of $N^*D/D/l$ queue are used for analytic methodology. The results from this paper are expected to be applied to general modulated $n^*D/D/l$ queue.

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A Study on the Hydrologic Decision-Making for Drought Management : 2. Decision-Making Method for Drought Management (가뭄관리를 위한 수문학적 의사결정에 관한 연구 : 2. 가뭄관리를 위한 의사결정 방법)

  • Kang, In-Joo;Yoon, Yong-Nam
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.35 no.5
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    • pp.597-609
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    • 2002
  • This study suggests a methodology of hydrologic decision making for the establishment of a standard of drought management from the drought analysis by the past drought history and for the drought monitoring and management according to drought processing. The construction and analysis of a decision tree diagram are performed and the step by step plan according to drought severity is suggested. Say, the decision tree diagram is constructed by the transition probability and quantity of monthly precipitation. Then the drought processing is investigated by the analysis of diagram and the 3-step of drought notice, drought warning, and emergency plan are established. The suggested methology in this study can be used for the other area and the decision tree diagram be used by changing the diagram according to the utilization purposes. Also, the choice of monthly PDSI class and precipitation analysis can be performed by the continuous data supplement. And so, a new standard value by the modified diagram is provided and the continuous drought management will be possible.

Characteristics of Ramsey Resonance Signal in an Optically Pumped Cesium Atomic Clock (광펌핑 세슘원자 시계에서의 Ramsey 공진 특성)

  • 이호성
    • Korean Journal of Optics and Photonics
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.173-180
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    • 1993
  • We observed Ramsey resonance signals from an optically pumped cesium atomic clock and compared them with the theoretical results calculated from the Ramsey transition probabilities. The theoretical results were in good agreement with the experimental results when the weighting factor of $1/{\nu}$ was taken into account to the Maxwellian distribution of velocities in the atomic beam. It was also found that the clock transition signal of Rabi-Ramsey spectra can be greatly enhanced by using two lasers with the proper polarizations as pumping sources of cesium atoms.

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Stochastic Initial States Randomization Method for Robust Knowledge Transfer in Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (멀티에이전트 강화학습에서 견고한 지식 전이를 위한 확률적 초기 상태 랜덤화 기법 연구)

  • Dohyun Kim;Jungho Bae
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.474-484
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    • 2024
  • Reinforcement learning, which are also studied in the field of defense, face the problem of sample efficiency, which requires a large amount of data to train. Transfer learning has been introduced to address this problem, but its effectiveness is sometimes marginal because the model does not effectively leverage prior knowledge. In this study, we propose a stochastic initial state randomization(SISR) method to enable robust knowledge transfer that promote generalized and sufficient knowledge transfer. We developed a simulation environment involving a cooperative robot transportation task. Experimental results show that successful tasks are achieved when SISR is applied, while tasks fail when SISR is not applied. We also analyzed how the amount of state information collected by the agents changes with the application of SISR.

Atomic motion and spatial distribution of 87Rb by Coordinate-dependent asymmetry radiation force in MOT (MOT에서 좌표의존 비대칭 광압에 의한 루비듐 원자의 운동과 원자 구름 분포)

  • 박성종
    • Korean Journal of Optics and Photonics
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.221-226
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    • 2000
  • We observed the spatial distributions of atom in a magneto-optical trap. These distributions include sphere, stick, ring, ring with core, sphere-sphere, sphere-ring etc. Coordinate-dependent asymmetry radiation force (CDARF) that arises due to laser beams misalignment and transverse profile of the laser beams is exerted on atoms, and the shape of trapped cloud is changed with the misalignment parameter. We use equations of motion that takes into account the Zeeman sublevels of the 87Rb atom, magnitude and direction of magnetic field, polarization of trapping lasers, and transverse profile of the laser beams. A theoretical analysis of the equation of motion for the trapped atom explained all the experimental observations.

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Korean POS and Homonym Tagging System using HMM (HMM을 이용한 한국어 품사 및 동형이의어 태깅 시스템)

  • Kim, Dong-Myoung;Bae, Young-Jun;Ock, Cheol-Young;Choi, Ho-Soep;Kim, Chang-Hwan
    • Annual Conference on Human and Language Technology
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    • 2008.10a
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    • pp.12-16
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    • 2008
  • 기존의 자연언어처리 연구 중 품사 태깅과 동형이의어 태깅은 별개의 문제로 취급되었다. 그로 인해 두 문제를 해결하기 위한 모델 역시 서로 다른 모델을 사용하였다. 이에 본 논문은 품사 태깅 문제와 동형이의어 태깅 문제는 모두 문맥의 정보에 의존함에 착안하여 은닉마르코프모델을 이용하여 두 가지 문제를 해결하는 시스템을 구현하였다. 제안한 시스템은 품사 및 동형이의어 태깅된 세종 말뭉치 1100만여 어절에 대해 unigram과 bigram을 추출 하였고, unigram을 이용하여 어절의 생성확률 사전을 구축하고 bigram을 이용하여 전이확률 사전을 구축하였다. 구현된 시스템의 성능 확인을 위해 비학습 말뭉치 261,360 어절에 대해 실험하였고, 실험결과 품사 태깅 99.74%, 동형이의어 태깅 97.41%, 품사 및 동형이의어 태깅 97.78%의 정확률을 보였다.

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