• Korea Trade Review
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• v.48 no.1
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• pp.127-163
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• 2023

The objective of this study is to investigate the volatility spillover effects among BDI, CCFI and SCFI. This paper will divide the empirical analysis section into two periods to analyze and compare the differences in volatility spillover effect between shipping freight indices before and after the outbreak of COVID-19 separately. First, in order to compare the mean spillover impact and index lead-lag correlations in BDI and CCFI indices, along with BDI and SCFI indices before and after COVID-19, the co-integration analysis and the test of Granger causality built on the VAR model were utilized. Second, the impulse response and variance decomposition are employed in this work to investigate how the shipping freight index responds to shocks experienced by itself and other freight indices in a short period. Before the COVID-19 epidemic, the results demonstrated that the BDI freight index is the Granger cause of the variable CCFI freight index. But the BDI and CCFI freight indices have no apparent lead-lag relationships after COVID-19, and this empirical result echoes the cointegration test result. After the COVID-19 epidemic, the SCFI index leads the BDI index. This study employs the VAR-BEKK-GARCH joint model to explore the volatility spillover results between dry bulk and container transport markets before and after COVID-19. The empirical results demonstrate that after COVID-19, fluctuations in the BDI index still affect the CCFI index in the maritime market. However, there is no proof of a volatility spillover relationship between the BDI and SCFI after the COVID-19 epidemic. This study will provide an insight into the volatility relationship among BDI, CCFI and SCFI before and after the the COVID-19 epidemic occurred.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.57-66
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• 2017

SIR model (Kermack and McKendrik, 1927) is one of the most popular method to explain the spread of disease, In order to construct SIR model, we need to estimate transition rate parameter and recovery rate parameter. If we don't have any information of the two rate parameters, we should estimate using observed whole trajectory of pandemic of disease. Thus, with restricted observed data, we can't estimate rate parameters. In this research, we introduced Reed-Frost model (Andersson and Britton, 2000) to calculate the probability of infection in the early stage of pandemic with the restriction of data. When we have an initial number of susceptible and infected, and a final number of infected, we can apply Reed - Frost model and we can get the probability of infection. We applied the Reed - Frost model to the Vibrio cholerae pandemic data from Republic of the Cameroon and calculated the probability of infection at the early stage. We also construct SIR model using the result of Reed - Frost model.

• Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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• v.30 no.1
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• pp.68-75
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• 2011

BACKGROUND: To assess and prevent the environmental impacts and risks by veterinary pharmaceuticals, Guidance on Estimating Soil Persistence and Degradation Kinetics from Environmental Fate Studies on Veterinary Pharmaceuticals for Environmental Risk Assessment was proposed. METHODS AND RESULTS: Proposed guidance was coined by VICH, EU guideline, OECD guideline and soil dissipation studies for the purpose of international harmonizing. Guidance was also modified from pesticide soil persistence testing guidelines of US, EU, and Korea, with practical approaches adopting in-use test guideline for Korea. CONCLUSION(S): Proposed guidance are consisted of three parts; Laboratory Soil Experiment, Field Soil Dissipation Study, and Estimation of $DT_{50}/DT_{90}$. Proposed guidance is to be available for the requirement for registration of veterinary pharmaceuticals with fit for purpose in Korea.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.20 no.8
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• pp.1487-1493
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• 2016

The susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered model (SEIR) is used extensively in the field of epidemiology. On the other hand, dissemination information among users through internet grows exponentially. This information spreading can be modeled as an epidemic. In this paper, we derive the mathematical model of SEIR in viral communication from the view of optimal control theory. Overall the methods based on classical calculus, In order to solve the optimal control problem, proved to be more efficient and accurate. According to Pontryagin's minimum principle (PMP) the Hamiltonian function must be optimized by the control variables at all points along the solution trajectory. We present our method based on the PMP and forward backward algorithm. In this algorithm, one should integrate forward in time for the state equations then integrate backward in time for the adjoint equations resulting from the optimality conditions. The problem is mathematically analyzed and numerically solved as well.

• Korean Journal of Microbiology
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.289-293
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• 2001

Incidence of infectious viruses is ensuing throughout the world and threatening the health of children as well as adults. The outbreaks of viral diseases of alimentary tract in Pusan from 1998 to 2000 were detected. Viruses were isolated from stool specimens, cerebrospinal fluid and throat swabs from suspicious patients and confirmed by cell culture, latex agglutination test, indirect immunofluorescent test and electron microscopic observation. The average isolation rate was 12.5% from the suspected specimens. From this work, 2 cases of enteric adenoviruses, 23 cases of echovirus, 31 cases of coxsackivirus 36 cases of rotavirus, 45 cases of SRSV, and 7 cases of poliovirus were detected. The major serotypes of coxsackievirus were B2, B3, B4, B6 and echovirus of serotypes 6, 9, 11, 25, and 30 were examined. Two cases of enteric adenovirus type 41 were also confirmed. The incidence of SRSV was mostly concentrated between December through following March, April through October with echovirus and coxsackievirus, and January through April with rotavirus, respectively. Electron micrograph of negative-stained viruses showed typical appearance with 30-80 nm in diameter.

• Korean Journal of Microbiology
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.294-298
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• 2001

Highly effective polymerase chain reaction (PCR) often brings about false positivity caused by contamination of the sample with target nucleic acids. To solve this problem, in situ PCR (ISPCR) has been developed and applied onto various tissue sections and suspension cultures. With combination of PCR and in situ hybridization, this method amplifies the nucleic acid targets in situ and detect the amplified products inside the cells over the background of various cell types. In order to amplify the nucleic acid targets inside the cells, permeabilisation of a sample is required for the entry of amplification reactants into a cell. Treatments of a sample for the purpose allow not only the entry of reactants into the cell but also the exit of amplification products out of the cell. As a means to reduce the leakage of the amplification products, two methods were applied to suspension cultures of HIV-infected Molt/LAV and U 1.1 cells, in which modified, tailed primers produced long linear amplificants whereas biotinylated dUTP instead of dTTP did bulky products.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.301-312
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• 2015

The purpose of this paper is to establish the epidemic model to explain the process of disease spread. The process of disease spread can be classified into two types: deterministic process and stochastic process. Most studies supposed that the process follows the deterministic process and established the model using the ordinary differential equation. In this article, we try to build the disease spread prediction model based on the SIR (Suspectible - Infectious - Recovered) model. we first estimated the model parameters using least squared method and applied to a deterministic model using ordinary differential equation. we also applied to a stochastic model based on Gillespie algorithm. The methods introduced in this paper are applied to the data on the number of cases of malaria every week from January 2001 to March 2003, released by Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. As a result, we conclude that our model explains well the process of disease spread.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.1-9
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• 2019

An agent-based simulation is a popular simulation tool to solve various problems, such as stock market, population prediction, disease prediction, and development of a traffic system. As the agents are developed and researched in different application fields, the agent has a rigid structure and may not acceptable in different domains. As a result, it is a challenging problem to define a structure for an agent structure to reflect the researcher's simulation objective. This research proposes an extendable form for an agent and its modeling environment. In order to propose a standard structure, this study adopts system entity structure and discrete event system specification formalism. Also, this research introduces the SESManager which supports the proposed specification method. The proposed environment can hierarchically define the agent structure and synthesize the agent so that it can perform the agent simulation according to the user's simulation purpose.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.254-254
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• 2022

밭 용수관리 및 가뭄 대응을 위한 토양수분 실측자료의 품질관리가 필수적으로 수행되어야 한다. 토양수분 자료의 체계적인 유지관리를 위해 국제 토양수분 네트워크(International Soil Moisture Network; ISMN)가 설립되었고, 전세계 1,400여개 지점의 토양수분량 자료의 품질관리하고 있다. ISMN 품질관리 방식은 토양특성, 강우에 대한 반응, 토양온도, 시계열특성을 이용한다. 지표면 최상 토층에 저장되어있는 수분인 토양수분은 기후 예측, 홍수 예보, 농업가뭄평가, 수자원 관리, 온실가스 산정, 인프라 보전, 수인성 전염병 모델링 등 다양한 분야에 활용될 수 있다(Dorigo et al., 2011). 본 연구에서는 FDR(Frequency Domain Reflectometry) 기기를 이용한 토양수분 측정자료의 품질관리를 위해 ISMN에서 제시한 총6개의 단계별 품질관리 체계를 적용하였다. 단계는 1) 토양수분이 0 m3m-3보다 작은지, 2) 또는 0.6 m3m-3보다 큰지, 3) 토양수분값이 공극률보다 큰지, 4) 토양온도가 영하인지, 5) 토양수분이 강우 이벤트 없이 증가하는지, 그리고 5) 토양수분 시계열 자료에 spike 가 있는지 6) break나 plateau가 있는지를 검사하여 Quality Flag를 설정하였다. 이를 기반으로 토양수분 데이터 자동 프로그램을 개발하여 이상치를 보정하였다. 향후, ISMN의 Quality Flag (QF1-QF10)를 적용하여 모니터링 자료의 품질관리 자동 프로그램을 개발하고자 한다.

• The Korean Journal of Malacology
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.13-19
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• 2012

To determine the status of Korean molluscs infection and relation with climate change of Korean peninsula, references were reviewed. Wild animals serve as intermediate, reservoirs and paratenic hosts to zoonotic parasites of human beings. Trematode are common parasites of molluscs and almost all trematodes infect mollusks as the first host in the life cycle, and most have a complex life cycle involving other hosts. The significance of auxiliary hosts to the ecology of the parasite has not been proper discussion. There is increasing concern as to the impact of climate change on the epidermiology of many parasitic diseases. A total of 21 species for snail transmitted parasites from Korean molluscs has been reviewed. Among them, 15 species was aquatic mollusks and 6 species for marine mollusks. Maximum infections belonged to Semisulcospira livertina had 11 kind of parasite pathogenic organisms, including Paragonimus westermani, Metagonimus yokogawai, Centrocestus armatus, Notocotylus magniovatus, Centrocestus formosanus, incerte cercaria, nipponensis cercaria, Yoshidae cercaria, cristata cercaria, innominatum cercaria and Metagonimus sp. And 11 in Parafossarulus manchouricus including Clonorchis sinensis, Asymphylodora japonica, Cyathocotyle orientalis, Exorchis oviformis, Notocotylus attenuatus, Echinochasmus japonicus, Loxogenes liberum, Cercariae of Loxogenes liberum Type I, Cercariae of Loxogenes liberum Type II, Furcocercus cercariae (Family Sanguincolidae) and Cercaria of Mucobucaris, 10 in Semisulcospira sp. including Paragonimus westermani, Metagonimus yokogawai, Centrocestus armatus, Echinochasmus redioduplicatus, Notocotylus magniovatus, Cercaria incerte, Cercaria nipponensis, Cercaria yoshidae, paludinarum cercaria and Metagonimus sp., 7 in Koreanomelania globus including Pseudexorchis major, Cercaria of parapleurolophocercous type, Metagonimus sp. (A & B), Cercaria nipponensis, Cercaria inserta and Cercaria yoshidae. Also, Tapes philippinarum have 3 pathogenic organisms including Cercariae tapidis, Cercariae furcocercus and Parvatrema sp. In particular, under climatic extremes such as floods and drought, aquatic molluscs may play a more prominent role in parasite transmission in the future.