• Title/Summary/Keyword: 전염병 예측

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An Epidemic Model for Sentiment Diffusion (소셜미디어상에서의 감성 전파 모델링 연구)

  • Woo, Jiyoung;Choi, Minn Seok;Lee, Min Jung
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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    • 2015.07a
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    • pp.81-83
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    • 2015
  • 본 연구는 사용자의 감성이 온라인 소셜 미디어를 통해 감염이 된다는 사실을 감성 전파 모델링으로 보이고자 한다. 이를 위해 전염병 파생을 기술하고 이를 예측하는데 사용되었던 질병확산 모델을 기초로 소셜 미디어상의 감성 전파 모델을 제시한다. 제시한 모델의 타당성을 검증하기 위해 특정 리테일 산업에 대한 논의가 활발히 이루어지고 있는 웹포럼의 데이터를 수집한다. 수집된 데이터로부터 주요 주제어를 도출하고, 주제별 감성을 측정하고, 시간에 따른 감성 값을 도출하여, 제시한 모델을 추정한다. 실험 결과 사용자의 긍정적 감성과 부정적 감성이 서로 경쟁관계에 있다는 가정을 따른 제안한 모델이 타당함을 보였다.

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Mathematical Modelling of the H1N1 Influenza (신종 인플루엔자의 수학적 모델링)

  • Lee, Sang-Gu;Ko, Rae-Young;Lee, Jae-Hwa
    • Communications of Mathematical Education
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.877-889
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    • 2010
  • Mathematical modelling is a useful method for reinterpreting the real world and for solving real problems. In this paper, we introduced a theory on mathematical modelling. Further, we developed a mathematical model of the H1N1 influenza with Excel. Then, we analyzed the model which tells us what role it can play in an appropriate prediction of the future and in the decision of accompanied policies.

라이브커머스를 이용하는 소비자의 가치와 E-WOM 의도에서 판매자의 영향력은?

  • Choe, Eun-Ji;Jeon, Seong-Min
    • 한국벤처창업학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2022.04a
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    • pp.135-139
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    • 2022
  • 현재 COVID-19 전염병으로 인해 전 세계적으로 오프라인 상점 대신 소비자는 전자 상거래를 선호하는 추세이다. 이에 실시간 상호작용과 상거래의 통합인 '라이브 커머스'가 각광받고 있다. 국내 라이브 커머스 시장규모가 2023년에는 10조원이 넘어설 것이라는 전망에 비하여 연구가 현저히 적은 실정이다. 이에 본 연구에선 라이브커머스의 가치와 소비자의 동기가 적극적인 소비자 행동인 E-WOM 의도를 어떻게 예측하는지 살펴보았다. 라이브 커머스의 가치로는 쾌락적가치, 실용적가치, 상징적가치와 감정적가치로 분류하였다. 또한 수단-목적사슬 이론 및 이용과 충족 이론을 적용하여 설명하였다. 종속변수인 E-WOM 의도와에 사이에서 라이브커머스의 주역할을 하는 판매자를 매개변수로 설정하였다. 이때 판매자의 상호작용성과 신뢰도로 구분짓고 연구를 설정하였다. 그리고 지각된 위험성을 조절변수로 활용하여 지각된 가치들과 판매자의 사이에서 영향이 있는지 살펴보였다. 본 연구의 설문 응답 대상은 네이버 라이브 커머스 이용 대상자 410명을 대상으로 진행하였다.

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Analysis on Results and Changes in Recent Forecasting of Earthquake and Space Technologies in Korea and Japan (한국과 일본의 지진재해 및 우주이용 기술예측에 대한 최근의 변화 분석)

  • Ahn, Eun-Young
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.55 no.4
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    • pp.421-428
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    • 2022
  • This study analyzes emerging earthquake and space use technologies from the latest Korean and Japanese scientific and technological foresights in 2022 and 2019, respectively. Unlike the earthquake prediction and early warning technologies presented in the 2017 study, the emerging earthquake technologies in 2022 in Korea was described as an earthquake/complex disaster information technology and public data platform. Many detailed future technologies were presented in Japan's 2019 survey, which includes largescale earthquake prediction, induced earthquake, national liquefaction risk, wide-scale stress measurement; and monitoring by Internet of Things (IoT) or artificial intelligence (AI) observation & analysis. The latest emerging space use technology in Korea and Japan were presented in more detail as robotic mining technology for water/ice, Helium-3, and rare earth metals, and manned station technology that utilizes local resources on the moon and Mars. The technological realization year forecasting in 2019 was delayed by 4-10 years from the prediction in 2015, which could be greater due to the Corona 19 epidemic, the declaration of carbon neutrality in Korea and Japan in 2020 and the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022. However, it is required to more active research on earthquake and space technologies linked to information technology.

A study of epidemic model using SEIR model (SEIR 모형을 이용한 전염병 모형 예측 연구)

  • Do, Mijin;Kim, Jongtae;Choi, Boseung
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.297-307
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    • 2017
  • The epidemic model is used to model the spread of disease and to control the disease. In this research, we utilize SEIR model which is one of applications the SIR model that incorporates Exposed step to the model. The SEIR model assumes that a people in the susceptible contacted infected moves to the exposed period. After staying in the period, the infectee tends to sequentially proceed to the status of infected, recovered, and removed. This type of infection can be used for research in cases where there is a latency period after infectious disease. In this research, we collected respiratory infectious disease data for the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERSCoV). Assuming that the spread of disease follows a stochastic process rather than a deterministic one, we utilized the Poisson process for the variation of infection and applied epidemic model to the stochastic chemical reaction model. Using observed pandemic data, we estimated three parameters in the SIER model; exposed rate, transmission rate, and recovery rate. After estimating the model, we applied the fitted model to the explanation of spread disease. Additionally, we include a process for generating the Exposed trajectory during the model estimation process due to the lack of the information of exact trajectory of Exposed.

Research on the Small Hydropower Renewable Energy Resources in Northern Gyeong-Buk 1. Streamflow Measurement (경북북부지역 소수력 재생에너지 자원조사 1. 유량측정)

  • Kim, Jeong-Heon;Kim, Dong-Hyeon;Kim, Seong-Won
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.216-219
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    • 2011
  • 신.재생에너지는 머지않아 고갈될 것이라 예측하고 있는 화석에너지의 대체에너지로서 대형 홍수와 국지적 집중호우, 가뭄과 전염병, 기근 등 우리인류의 생존을 위협하는 재앙을 어느 정도 줄일 수 있고, 온실효과 가스를 저감하고자 하는 하나의 방법으로서 가스배출량이 적은 수력, 풍력, 태양광 등의 재생에너지를 이용한 방법이다. 이 중 물은 무한적인 자원이 아니기 때문에 소중히 여기고 순환과정을 통하여 재활용 될 수 있고, 친환경적이고 장기적인 수명과 다른 자원을 사용하는 발전소들보다 더 효율적이며 복원 가능성이 크고 다른 오염유발 에너지 자원을 대신한다. 본 연구에서는 경상북도 북부지역 5개 지점의 소수력발전 후보지점에 대한 평 갈수기 및 홍수기의 유량측정에서 수위-유량관계곡선식의 유도등의 목적을 달성하기 위하여 2009년 3월부터 2010년 9월까지 5개 지점을 대상으로 현지조사 및 자료수집, 측량작업, 유량측정 등을 실시하였다. 본 유량측정을 통하여 경상북도 북부지역의 최적 소수력 발전지점 선정을 위한 기초자료를 제공할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

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Enhanced Stabilization of Carcasses by Retrofitting Burial Sites to Bioreactor (매몰지 생물반응조 개조를 통한 사체의 안정화 촉진)

  • Kim, Geonha;Jeon, Haeseong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.36 no.10
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    • pp.679-684
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    • 2014
  • Many burial sites were constructed to suppress the spread of foot and mouth disease during outbreak. Defected burial sites were removed when leachate leak is presumed and carcasses were moved to the circular storage tanks. However, carcasses were not decomposed possibly due to low water content, low microbial activities, and poor mixing. In this research, storage tank containing carcasses in it was modified to bioreactor to accelerate stabilization. Liquids with nutrients were added and circulated to maintain the optimum water content while extraneous microorganisms were augmented. Settlement was used as the primary index for assessing stabilization rate, and the consolidation theory was utilized to estimate the expected final settlement. 30% of carcasses is expected to be decomposed and removed from the storage tank for five years of bioreactor operation.

Keyword trends analysis related to the aviation industry during the Covid-19 period using text mining (텍스트마이닝을 활용한 Covid-19 기간 동안의 항공산업 관련 키워드 트렌드 분석)

  • Choi, Donghyun;Song, Bomi;Park, Dahyeon;Lee, Sungwoo
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.115-128
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to conduct keyword trend analysis using articles data on the impact of Covid-19 in the aviation in dustry. In this study, related articles were extracted centering on the keyword "Airline" by dividing the period of 6months before and after Covid-19 occurrence. After that, Topic modeling(LDA) was performed. Through this, The main topic was extracted in the event of an epidemic such as Covid-19, It is expected to be used as primary data to predict the aviation industry's impact when occurrence like Covid-19.

Vulnerability Assessment for Public Health to Climate change Using Spatio-temporal Information Based on GIS (GIS기반 시공간정보를 이용한 건강부문의 기후변화 취약성 평가)

  • Yoo, Seong-Jin;Lee, Woo-Kyun;Oh, Su-Hyun;Byun, Jung-Yeon
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.13-24
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    • 2012
  • To prevent the damage to human health by climate change, vulnerability assessment should be conducted for establishment of adaptation strategies. In this study, vulnerability assessment was conducted to provide information about vulnerable area for making adaptation policy. vulnerability assessment for human health was divided into three categories; extreme heat, ozone, and epidemic disease. To assess vulnerability, suitable indicators were selected by three criteria; sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and exposure, spatial data of indicators were prepared and processed using GIS technique. As a result, high vulnerability to extreme heat was shown in the low land regions of southern part. And vulnerability to harmful ozone was high in the surrounding area of Dae-gu basin and metropolitan area with a number of automobiles. Vulnerability of malaria and tsutsugamushi disease have a region-specific property. They were high in the vicinity of the Dimilitarized zone and south-western plain, respectively. In general, vulnerability of human health was increased in the future time. Vulnerable area was extended from south to central regions and from plain to low mountainous regions. For assessing vulnerability with high accuracy, it is necessary to prepare more related indicators and consider weight of indicators and use climate prediction data based on the newly released scenario when assessing vulnerability.

Development of Evaluation Framework and Professional Evaluation of Health Information Predictability (건강정보의 예보성 평가준거를 활용한 전문가 평가결과 분석연구)

  • Kang, Min-Sug;Lee, Moo-Sik;Hong, Jee-Young;Kim, Sang-Ha
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.10 no.10
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    • pp.2966-2973
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    • 2009
  • In this article, I propose effective strategies for improving the Predictive Health Care. The results of qualitative study on health information show the following order from the highest score: whether health information is scientifically sound ($3.7\pm0.5$), whether people can easily understand health information ($3.6\pm0.5$), and whether health information reflects the public'sconcerns (($3.5\pm0.5$), and whether health information includes enough information to satisfy the public ($2.9\pm0.6$). The most pressing reforms for the effective Predictive Health Care areto provide enough health information and regularly collection of information because the Predictive Health Care has not provided enough information, authoritative information has rarely been offered, and methodological limitations on producing and applying predictive information have not been addressed. Although the Predictive Health Care provides online services like web-based epidemic reporting system, it needs to extend services from the epidemic information to general health information because of lack of promoting the Predictive Health Care and of credibility of information offered so far. Lastly, the Predictive Health Care needs to strengthen efforts to collect information, form common grounds between information and the public's concerns, clarify classification system of information, and offer an easy way for the public to use information.