• Title/Summary/Keyword: 적합도 분석

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A Study on the Prediction Model of Stock Price Index Trend based on GA-MSVM that Simultaneously Optimizes Feature and Instance Selection (입력변수 및 학습사례 선정을 동시에 최적화하는 GA-MSVM 기반 주가지수 추세 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-sik;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.147-168
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    • 2017
  • There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.

The Effect of Recombinant Human Epidermal Growth Factor on Cisplatin and Radiotherapy Induced Oral Mucositis in Mice (마우스에서 Cisplatin과 방사선조사로 유발된 구내염에 대한 재조합 표피성장인자의 효과)

  • Na, Jae-Boem;Kim, Hye-Jung;Chai, Gyu-Young;Lee, Sang-Wook;Lee, Kang-Kyoo;Chang, Ki-Churl;Choi, Byung-Ock;Jang, Hong-Seok;Jeong, Bea-Keon;Kang, Ki-Mun
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.242-248
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    • 2007
  • Purpose: To study the effect of recombinant human epidermal growth factor (rhEGF) on oral mucositis induced by cisplatin and radiotherapy in a mouse model. Materials and Methods: Twenty-four ICR mice were divided into three groups-the normal control group, the no rhEGF group (treatment with cisplatin and radiation) and the rhEGF group (treatment with cisplatin, radiation and rhEGF). A model of mucositis induced by cisplatin and radiotherapy was established by injecting mice with cisplatin (10 mg/kg) on day 1 and with radiation exposure (5 Gy/day) to the head and neck on days $1{\sim}5$. rhEGF was administered subcutaneously on days -1 to 0 (1 mg/kg/day) and on days 3 to 5 (1 mg/kg/day). Evaluation included body weight, oral intake, and histology. Results: For the comparison of the change of body weight between the rhEGF group and the no rhEGF group, a statistically significant difference was observed in the rhEGF group for the 5 days after day 3 of. the experiment. The rhEGF group and no rhEGF group had reduced food intake until day 5 of the experiment, and then the mice demonstrated increased food intake after day 13 of the of experiment. When the histological examination was conducted on day 7 after treatment with cisplatin and radiation, the rhEGF group showed a focal cellular reaction in the epidermal layer of the mucosa, while the no rhEGF group did not show inflammation of the oral mucosa. Conclusion: These findings suggest that rhEGF has a potential to reduce the oral mucositis burden in mice after treatment with cisplatin and radiation. The optimal dose, number and timing of the administration of rhEGF require further investigation.

A Disk Group Commit Protocol for Main-Memory Database Systems (주기억 장치 데이타베이스 시스템을 위한 디스크 그룹 완료 프로토콜)

  • 이인선;염헌영
    • Journal of KIISE:Databases
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.516-526
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    • 2004
  • Main-Memory DataBase(MMDB) system where all the data reside on the main memory shows tremendous performance boost since it does not need any disk access during the transaction processing. Since MMDB still needs disk logging for transaction commit, it has become another bottleneck for the transaction throughput and the commit protocol should be examined carefully. There have been several attempts to reduce the logging overhead. The pre-commit and group commit are two well known techniques which do not require additional hardware. However, there has not been any research to analyze their effect on MMDB system. In this paper, we identify the possibility of deadlock resulting from the group commit and propose the disk group commit protocol which can be readily deployed. Using extensive simulation, we have shown that the group commit is effective on improving the MMDB transaction performance and the proposed disk group commit almost always outperform carefully tuned group commit. Also, we note that the pre-commit does not have any effect when used alone but shows some improvement if used in conjunction with the group commit.

Traffic Control using Multi Rule-Base in an ATM Network (ATM 네트워크에서 멀티 룰-베이스 기법을 이용한 트래픽 제어)

  • Kim, Young-Il;Ryoo, In-Tae;Shim, Cheul;Lee, Sang-Bae
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.18 no.12
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    • pp.1870-1883
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    • 1993
  • In this paper, in order to build up the User Network Interface based on ATM, a study on traffic control techniques which should be performed by main function groups-B 75,5 NT2, LEX-is discussed. The structure of B-NT2 which is the most important function group In the User Network Interface is defined in quite a simple manner in addition, the functional blocks of LEX are defined in a similar manner as those of B NT2. It is possible to distribute total traffic control functions by using the similarities between B-NT2 and LEX and by allocating virtual path identifiers fixedly according to the characteristics of the traffics. For the traffic control techniques of ATM, relations among Connection Admtsslon Control, Usage Parameter Control and Bandwidth Allocation Control are defined and Multi Rule Base structure to realize optimal control functions according to the characteristics of the source traffics is proposed. And the Real-time Variable Window algorithmsimply designed to be suitable for the Multi Rule Base architecture is also proposed. The performances of the proposed algorithm are analyzed through the computer simulation by generating on-off source traffic in a virtual system that has the form of the proposed hardware. The analyzed results show that the distributed control is possible and that the implementation of the proposed architecture and algorithm is possible.

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An Efficient Array Algorithm for VLSI Implementation of Vector-radix 2-D Fast Discrete Cosine Transform (Vector-radix 2차원 고속 DCT의 VLSI 구현을 위한 효율적인 어레이 알고리듬)

  • 신경욱;전흥우;강용섬
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.18 no.12
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    • pp.1970-1982
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    • 1993
  • This paper describes an efficient array algorithm for parallel computation of vector-radix two-dimensional (2-D) fast discrete cosine transform (VR-FCT), and its VLSI implementation. By mapping the 2-D VR-FCT onto a 2-D array of processing elements (PEs), the butterfly structure of the VR-FCT can be efficiently importanted with high concurrency and local communication geometry. The proposed array algorithm features architectural modularity, regularity and locality, so that it is very suitable for VLSI realization. Also, no transposition memory is required, which is invitable in the conventional row-column decomposition approach. It has the time complexity of O(N+Nnzp-log2N) for (N*N) 2-D DCT, where Nnzd is the number of non-zero digits in canonic-signed digit(CSD) code, By adopting the CSD arithmetic in circuit desine, the number of addition is reduced by about 30%, as compared to the 2`s complement arithmetic. The computational accuracy analysis for finite wordlength processing is presented. From simulation result, it is estimated that (8*8) 2-D DCT (with Nnzp=4) can be computed in about 0.88 sec at 50 MHz clock frequency, resulting in the throughput rate of about 72 Mega pixels per second.

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The Surface Treatment Effect for Nanoimprint Lithography using Vapor Deposition of Silane Coupling Agent (나노임프린트 공정에서 실란커플링제 기상증착을 이용한 표면처리 효과)

  • Lee, Dong-Il;kim, Ki-Don;Jeong, Jun-Ho;Lee, Eung-Sug;Choi, Dae-Geun
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.45 no.2
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    • pp.149-154
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    • 2007
  • Nanoimprint lithography (NIL) is useful technique because of its low cost and high throughput capability for the fabrication of sub-micrometer patterns which has potential applications in micro-optics, magnetic memory devices, bio sensors, and photonic crystals. Usually, a chemical surface treatment of the stamp is needed to ensure a clean release after imprinting and to protect the expensive original master against contamination. Meanwhile, adhesion promoter between resin and substrate is also important in the nanoscale pattern. In this work, we have investigated the effect of surface treatment using silane coupling agent as release layer and adhesion promoter for UV-Nanoimprint lithography. Uniform SAM (self-assembled monolayer) could be fabricated by vapor deposition method. Vapor phase process eliminates the use of organic solvents and greatly simplifies the handling of the sample. It was also proven that 3-acryloxypropyl methyl dichlorosilane (APMDS) could strongly improve the adhesion force between resin and substrate compared with common planarization layer such as DUV-30J or oxygen plasma treatment.

A Curricular Study on AI & ES in Library and Information Science (문헌정보학에서의 인공지능과 전문가시스템 교육과정 연구)

  • Koo Bon-Young;Park Mi-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.211-232
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    • 1998
  • It is the purpose of this study to specify contents of Library and Information Science to train information professional to meet environment change of technology and system. Among them. recognizing necessity of present Artificial Intelligence and Export System (AI and ES) required by changing environment of latest Information technology, it is also the purpose of this work to figure out fundamental data and the way of solution how to introduce what contents out of AI and ES to Library and Information Science. The briefed results are as follows. 1. Due to rapid change of high Information technology and computer application it is the most important essential points, In order of Importance, in finding available network source, In indexing on-line data base, in analysing and design information system. and in computer application ability. 2. In contents of AI and ES, most Important training portion for Library and Information Science are : data base treating, thesaurus, natural language processing. and knowledge representation. 3. Library and information science professors recognize It necessary for bigger number of Library and Information Science students to be educated artificial intelligence and expert system. 4. During forthcoming age it shows more important reorganization that artificial intelligence and expert system improves information professional in reference service, cataloging, classification, information retrieval, and documentation delivery 5. According to library and information science professors more important reorganization on the subject of AI and ES, the curricular on AI and ES is, forthcoming, to be Introduced to curricular on library and information science in the nation, In order of importance, (see 1. above).

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The Study on the Focus Group of Adolescent Alcohol Use (청소년 음주 예방을 위한 포커스집단 연구)

  • Lee, Si-Yeon;Choi, Youn-Jung;Kwon, Hyun-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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    • v.58 no.1
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    • pp.319-346
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    • 2006
  • This study examines the current alcohol use situation among adolescents and provides information relevant to development of adequate prevention programs for adolescent alcohol use in Korea. In this study, we used focus group research method and analyzed the outcome with constant comparison method. We classified 4 major categories of adolescent alcohol use situation such as the factors on enhancing alcohol use, the factors on delaying alcohol use, the occasions significantly related to alcohol use and the first alcohol use experience of adolescent. And we found out 16 minor categories and 93 concepts under the major categories. The results from the study revealed that the factors on enhancing alcohol use were associated with adolescents' psychological reasons, their positive perceptions on alcohol, family factors, peer influences, teacher's influences and social and cultural aspects on alcohol in general. The factors on delaying alcohol use were associated with health conditions, their negative perceptions on alcohol, parental monitoring, economic reasons and their limited access to purchase alcohol. The occasions significantly related to adolescent alcohol use were family events, school events and peer gatherings. In addition, the first adolescent alcohol use experience was strongly associated with the peer influences and significant adults' offer of alcohol. Findings suggest recommendations for prevention and intervention programs for adolescent alcohol use in Korea.

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Nutrient Components and Physicochemical Properties of New Domestic Potato Cultivars (국내산 신품종 감자의 영양성분 및 이화학적 특성)

  • Choi, Hee-Don;Lee, Hae-Chang;Kim, Sung-Soo;Kim, Yun-Sook;Lim, Hak-Tae;Ryu, Gi-Hyung
    • Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.382-388
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    • 2008
  • This study examined the nutrient components and physicochemical properties of three new potato cultivars: Gui Valley, Bora Valley, and Gogu Valley, which were acquired from PotatoValley Ltd., and compared them to the Superior cultivar that is widely distributed in food markets. Amino acid, fatty acid, and mineral compositions, as well as total starch, reducing sugar, dietary fiber, vitamin C, and phenolic acid contents were measured. The gelatinization and pasting properties of the potatoes were evaluated using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and a rapid visco analyzer (RVA). The three new potato cultivars showed differences for various characteristics compared to the existing Superior cultivar. The Gui valley cultivar has a high potential for processing into items such as French fries or chips, due to its high starch content and low reducing sugar content. Bora valley showed an incredibly high phenolic acid contents, and Gogu valley contained high levels of dietary fiber, minerals, vitamin C, and essential amino acids. Overall, these cultivars are expected to be highly valuable items for develpment and applications of functional food.

Bearing Capacity Analyses of Shallow Foundations in Reinforced Slopes

  • Kim, Hong-Taek;Choi, In-Sik;Sim, Young-Jong
    • Geotechnical Engineering
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.127-148
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    • 1996
  • Recently, foundations of heavy structures such as bridge abutments have been built on slopes or near the crest of slopes at an increasing rate. Because the bearing capacity of such foundations is considerably lower than the bearing capacity of the same soil on a level ground, deep footings such as piles and caissons are often used. However, the costs of such methods are generally very high. One of the new techniques to overcome the problem is to place reinforcing members such as geosynthetics or metal strips horizontally at some depths beneath the footings. Rational methods of analysis to predict the bearing capacity of footings in reinforced slopes are therefore needed. This paper proposes an analytical method for estimating the increase in bearing capacity gained from the included horizontal strips or ties of tensile reinforcing in the foundation soil below the footing built near the crest of a slope. A failure mechanism, including the concept of'wide slab effect', adopted in the present study for analyzing the bearing capacity of foundations in reinforced slopes, is established through the observed model test behaviors described by Binquet SE Lee and Huang et al, and the Boussinesq solutions. The analytical results are then compared with the experimental data described in the paper by Huang et al. Also in order to properly evaluate the soil reinforcement interaction, typical pullout test values of the apparent friction coefficient, which usually vary with depths owing to both the increase of the shearing volume and the increase in local stress caused by soil dilatancy, are analyzed and related functionally. Furthermore, analytical parametric studies are carried out to investigate the effect and significance of various pertinent parameters associated with design of reinforced slope foundations. Keywords : Bearing capacity, Reinforced slope, Slab effect, Friction coefficient.

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