• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.93-117
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• 1994

이론적으로, 국가경제에 있어서 인구구조(人口構造)의 변화(變化)는 인적자본(人的資本) 형성 및 노동공급(勞動供給), 각 주체들의 소비(消費) 저축행위(貯蓄行爲) 등의 장기적(長期的) 추세(趨勢)를 결정짓는 중요한 요인으로 인식되어 왔다. 본 논문에서는 우리나라의 연령별(年齡別) 인구구조 변화가 거시경제변수인 가계소비(家計消費), 금리(金利) 및 경상수지(經常收支)에 미치는 영향에 대하여 이론적(理論的)인 모형(模型) 제시(提示)와 함께 실증분석(實證分析)을 시도하였다. 이론적 모형에서는 인구구조 변화와 이러한 거시경제변수들간의 관계를 평생소득가설(平生所得假說)에 의거하여 설정하였으며, 실증분석 결과는 실제로 인구구조 변화의 거시경제적 효과가 통계적(統計的)으로 유의성(有意性)이 매우 높게 나타나고 있음을 보여주고 있다. 그러나 가계소비와 경상수지의 경우, 장년층인구(壯年層人口)의 상대적(相對的) 증가(增加)는 경제전체의 평균소비성향(平均消費性向)을 낮추고 경상수지(經常收支)를 개선(改善)하는 요인인 것으로 분석되어 평생소득가설에 잘 부합하고 있는 반면, 금리(金利)의 경우에는 장년층인구 증가가 금리를 상승(上昇)시키는 요인으로 나타나고 있어 평생소득가설에 상반(相反)되는 모습을 나타내고 있다.

• 해운
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• s.83
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• pp.12-16
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• 2011

2011년 하반기 세계경제는 고유가와 유럽 재정우기 등 상반기 충격요인들의 향배에 의해 결정될 것이다. 3분기에도 4%대의 소비자물가 상승세가 이어지면서 국내경기는 하반기 중 회복의 활력이 세지 않을 전망이다. 원화절상, 일본 대체효과 소멸 등으로 수출활력이 다소 둔화되고 설비투자도 대기수요가 충족되면서 상승세가 꺾일 전망이다. 이에 따라 2011년 하반기 국내경제 성장률은 4.5%, 연간으로는 4.1% 수준을 기록할 것으로 전망된다. 가계부채, 건설사 및 저축은행 부실문제 등이 우리경제의 장기적인 불안요인으로 작용하겠지만 단기간 내 경제에 심각한 충격을 줄 정도는 아닌 것으로 보인다. 하반기 중에도 물가안정 대책에 초점이 두어져야 하며 단계적인 정책금리 인상으로 기대 인플레이션 상승을 억제할 필요가 있다. 하반기의 시작점에서 경제악화 요인들은 어떠한 것들이 있으며, 효과적으로 대처하기 위해서 현재의 상황과 앞으로의 전망을 살펴볼 필요가 있다. 다음은 LG 경제연구소에서 발표한 "2011년 하반기 세계경제 환경 및 국내경제 정책 전망"의 주요 내용을 정리 요약한 것이다.

• Journal of Families and Better Life
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.58-68
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• 1995

본 연구는 경제적 자원의 결핍과 열악한 시장환경으로인해 소비의 효율성 발휘에 제약을 받고 있는 빈곤농가 주부의 소비자기능을 평가하고, 관련 변수를 규명하려는 목적으로 수행되었다. 농촌지도 실무자들로부터 상대적으로 낙후된 지역을 추천받아 농가주부를 대상으로 설문조사를 수행하였으며, 총 444부를 분석에 사용하였다. 빈도분포, 교차분석, 일원분산분석 및 최소유의차검증, 중분류분석 등의 결과 빈곤농가 주부의 소비자기능은 비빈곤농가 주부에 비해 낮았으며, 소비자기능은 주부의 학력과 연령, 가계관리자 유형, 주관적 관 리능력에 따라 차이가 나타났다. 소비자기능의 하위영역별로 볼 때, 빈곤농가 주부는 지출비목별 예산수립, 정기적인 저축, 구매품목의 사전결정, 가격.상표.제조년월일의 확인, 사용방법.주의사항.보증내용의 확인, 영수증 확인 및 보관, 가계부기록.확인, 아프터서비스 요청 항목에서 모든 비빈곤농가 주부 보다 낮은 기능점수를 보였고, 인적정보 활용, 충분한 상점탐색 항목에서는 부분적으로 낮은 기능점수를 보였다.

• Economic Analysis
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.1-53
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• 2019

This paper examines monetary policy quantitatively in a two-agent and small-scale New-Keynesian economy with debt-constrained households that cannot smooth their consumption intertemporally and frictionlessly since highly indebted households are not allowed to borrow above a certain debt ceiling in incomplete financial markets without additional risk premiums due to information asymmetry between savers and borrowers. We find that, in the event of cost shocks, the asymmetric responses of borrowing households without, and saving households with, dividend incomes lead to different labor supplies and consumptions over heterogeneous households, and eventually to an extension of the monetary policy transmission channels. The income effect and low elasticity of the labor supply play key roles in such asymmetric responses over heterogeneous households. We also find that the social welfare in a flexible inflation targeting (FIT) monetary policy, in which both the inflation gap and the output gap are considered in an integrated manner when policy-making, is similar to that of the Ramsey optimal monetary policy (ROP), in which the shares of debt-constrained households, as well as all economic states, including both the inflation gap and output gap, are considered comprehensively for policy-making, and that it is greater than that of simple inflation targeting (SIT) monetary policy, in which only the inflation gap is considered mechanically for policy-making. Such social welfare implies that a FIT policy may still work even in an economy with a sizable number of debt-constrained households. Further, the responses of cost shocks to consumption and labor supply are dying out more slowly under FIT and ROP policies than under an SIT policy.

• Journal of the Korean Home Economics Association
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.201-215
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• 1996

The purpose of the study was to examine the effects of household characteristics to family savings. Family savings were defined in four ways such as monthly savings, average propensity to save, financial assets, and net financial assets. The household characteristics dealt with were family income, household size, number of earners, age, occupation, education, housing tenure, and urbanization. The data used in the study was Survey of Family Finance 1990. The main statistical method was multiple regression. Family income was found to the most important variable to determine four family saving variables holding other characteristics constant. Also, household size had significant negative effects on family savings. Two-earner households were found to have higher average propensity to save and less financial assets compared to single-earner households. Fro monthly savings and average propensity to save, the households with forties andfifties household head tended to be less than others, while financial assets tended to increase with the age of household head. Compared to salary earner households, blue-colored households had significantly lower average propensity to save, and the households with professionals had significantly higher financial assets. The college-graduated households tended to have less monthly savings than the elementary-graduated households. Also, the housing renters were found to have more monthly savings and higher average propensity to save, compared to the housing owners.

• 사회경제평론
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.119-154
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• 2016

Kalecki thought that monetary and financial factors play very important roles in the processes of investment decision and expenditure. He also acknowledged that interest rate is monetary phenomenon and investment finance is provided by banks prior to savings as Keynes did, and suggested that the more is the debt, the greater is the risk of debtor and lender. However, in developing investment theory he dismissed those monetary and financial factors or substituted into actual profit or savings, because he aimed to construct the investment theory to be able to explain the 'automatic mechanism of the fluctuation of capitalist economy'. Thus it is argued that Kalecki did not consider the monetary and financial factors in his investment theory. This paper aims to modify Kalecki's investment theory so that it incorporates the monetary and financial factors, such as the willingness of banking system to lend, interest rates, the ratio of leverage which had been dismissed by him. The Kaleckian investment theory that incorporates the monetary and financial factors in Kalecki's theory of investment allows us to explain not only an automatic and regular business cycle, but also irregular excessive investment and high leverage, consequent risk increase and financial crisis occurred in the economy with developed financial system.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.93-102
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• 1989

A runoff model is estabilished for the direct runoff hydrograph at the watershed outlet. The watershed is divided into subareas bounded by watershed lines of stream segment. Different storage elements are used to represent the subareas which simply translate rain-fall excess to runoff and transmit flow from an upstream areas. For transmit, the relationship between flowsection and runoff is expressed by the exponential function to represent the nonlinearity of lag time, and the relationship between flowsection and stream length is expressed by the 1st order equation to represent the effect of the travel length. The parameters of lag time can be obtained by stream magnitude and the effective rain fall is routed through the main stream. Application of the model to the Bochung river basin gives accurate results, especially for the peak runoff and peak time, and is approved to be used for the prediction by stream magnitude of small watershed having no runoff records.

• 한국노년학
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• v.36 no.3
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• pp.905-926
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• 2016

Although the concept of the elderly varies depending on scholars and laws, as consumption expenditure is deeply associated with income due to the nature of this study, 55 years old was set as the low limit standard for the elderly according to Prohibition of Discrimination on Age in Employment and Employment Promotion for the Aged Act and the elderly households were limited to single-elderly person household and an elderly couple family household for this study. It is considered consumption characteristics as a significant analysis subject in terms of social welfare because it could be understood as an expressed need which was a reflection of desire. Therefore, the present study aimed to investigate the consumption characteristics of the elderly households by stereotyping the consumption pattern of the elderly households, and find the determining factors for consumption patterns and thus contribute to the establishment of related policies through the expressed needs of the elderly households. K-means of cluster analysis was performed by putting the consumption expenditure of the elderly households to investigate inherent structural type of consumption pattern of the elderly households, which were the investigation subjects. As a result, four groups were stereotyped and named as below: 'health care-centered type', 'saving-centered type', 'livelihood-centered type', and 'food expenses-centered type' Binary Logistic Regression analysis was used to identify the factors that influence the decision of consumption pattern of the elderly households. The result of study showed that the elderly households faced all different needs and problems and thus there is a need for various approach plans to solve this situation. In particular, although the elderly have been viewed as economically poor people so far, the study showed that there were also kind of prepared households through saving. Overall, livelihoodcentered type accounted for the highest portion and, as a factor that influenced this, marital state and household income played an important role. Therefore, it is considered that more active efforts to increase the income of the elderly households are needed. In addition, age, owning of house and subjective health state were found to also have significant influence. Through these results of the study, the elderly's own improvement of awareness on health, presentation of overall standard for health state of the elderly, securement of the elderly's access to cultural life, and financial management coordination for improvement of quality of life, development and dissemination of jobs suitable for the elderly, and dissemination of communal life household, which is a cooperation residential type, were presented as institutional task in the conclusion.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.16 no.6
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• pp.151-161
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• 2018

Income is a vital aspect of economic life. Knowing what their income will help people create budgets that allow them to pay for their living expenses. Income data is used by banks, stores, and service companies for marketing purposes and for retaining loyal customers; it is a crucial demographic element used at a wide variety of customer touch points. Therefore, it is essential to be able to make income predictions for existing and potential customers. This paper aims to predict employment earnings or income based on history, and uses machine learning techniques such as SVMs (Support Vector Machines), Gaussian, decision tree and DCNNs (Deep Convolutional Neural Networks) for predicting employment earnings. The results show that the DCNN method provides optimum results with 88% compared to other machine learning techniques used in this paper. Improvement of the data length such PCA has the potential to provide more optimum result.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.525-532
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• 2017

Recently, there shows a trend in Korea that the rate of the population entering into aging is the most rapidly increasing among the OECD countries. Consequently, This study, therefore, aims at analyzing the forms of portfolio establishment by group, the factors affecting the old age preparation, and the presence of middle-aged households' preparation for the old ages in order to forestall social problems like the poverty ration of elderly that have been caused by the rapidly aging society. The result shows that the portfolio for the old age preparation can be expanded if a combination product of finance and real estate is developed as a means of old age preparation. Upon the results of the study above, it can be seen that the old age preparations differ according to not only the demographic elements, but also the extent to how much resources one holds. Especially, the various factors affecting the holding resources vary householder by household depending on whether they prepare for the old ages or not.