• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
• /
• v.18 no.4
• /
• pp.899-907
• /
• 2022

Purpose: Although many studies on seismic fragility analysis of general bridges have been conducted using machine learning methods, studies on curved bridge structures are insignificant. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze the seismic fragility of bridges with I-shaped curved girders based on the machine learning method considering the material property and geometric uncertainties. Method: Material properties and pier height were considered as uncertainty parameters. Parameters were sampled using the Latin hypercube technique and time history analysis was performed considering the seismic uncertainty. Machine learning data was created by applying artificial neural network and response surface analysis method to the original data. Finally, earthquake fragility analysis was performed using original data and learning data. Result: Parameters were sampled using the Latin hypercube technique, and a total of 160 time history analyzes were performed considering the uncertainty of the earthquake. The analysis result and the predicted value obtained through machine learning were compared, and the coefficient of determination was compared to compare the similarity between the two values. The coefficient of determination of the response surface method was 0.737, which was relatively similar to the observed value. The seismic fragility curve also showed that the predicted value through the response surface method was similar to the observed value. Conclusion: In this study, when the observed value through the finite element analysis and the predicted value through the machine learning method were compared, it was found that the response surface method predicted a result similar to the observed value. However, both machine learning methods were found to underestimate the observed values.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society For Composite Materials Conference
• /
• 2001.05a
• /
• pp.155-158
• /
• 2001

The layup optimization by genetic algorithm (GA) for the strength of laminated composites with free-edge is presented. For the calculation of interlaminar stresses of composite laminates with free edges, extended Kantorovich method is applied. In the formulation of GA, repair strategy is adopted for the satisfaction of given constraints. In order to consider the bounded uncertainty of material properties, convex modeling is used. Results of GA optimization with scattered properties are compared with those of optimization with nominal properties. The GA combined with convex modeling can work as a practical tool for light weight design of laminated composite structures since uncertainties are always encountered in composite materials.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society For Composite Materials Conference
• /
• 2000.11a
• /
• pp.169-172
• /
• 2000

Although extensive efforts have been devoted to the optimal design of composite laminated plates in recent years, some practical issues still need further research. One of them is the handling of the uncertainties in material properties, which were ignored in most researches in the past. In this paper, the convex modeling is used in calculating the failure criterion, given as constraint, to consider the uncertain material properties in the thickness optimization. Numerical results show that the optimal thickness increases when the uncertainties of elastic moduli considered, which shows such uncertainties should not be ignored for safe and reliable designs.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2018.05a
• /
• pp.436-436
• /
• 2018

하천의 조도계수는 하상 입자들의 크기 및 형상, 식생, 수로의 만곡 등 흐름특성에 영향을 주는 복합적인 경험적 매개변수이므로 그 값을 정확히 산정하는 것은 매우 어렵다(Chow, 1959). 제주도 산지하천은 하상이 매우 불규칙하고 조도계수의 불확실성으로 인해 정확한 홍수위, 홍수량 산정이 어렵다. 또한 하상경사가 매우 급하여 상류와 사류가 복합적으로 발생하므로 수치모의 시 수위차가 크게 발생할 우려가 있다. 따라서 현장실측 기반의 하천 조도계수 산정을 통한 홍수위, 홍수량 산정에 정확도를 향상시킬 필요가 있다. 이 연구에서는 제주도 북부지역의 건천(한천, 병문천, 독사천, 산지천)을 대상으로 하상재료를 직접 실측하여 하상 입경을 이용한 조도계수를 산정하였다. 실측 방법은 대상하천의 현장답사 및 현장조사를 사전에 실시하였으며, 하천의 종단 방향으로 1km 간격, 100개 이상의 하상재료를 표본으로 취하고 선격자법을 적용하였다. 대상하천 하류부의 좌안, 우안은 대부분 하천 정비에 의한 제방 구축이 되었으며, 상류부는 경사가 급한 암질로 구성되어 있으므로 하상을 중심으로 구성물질의 입경과 조고를 측정하여 상류 흐름의 영향범위를 고려한 조도계수를 산정하였다. 표본 측정시 점 사주, 여울, 웅덩이 등 국부적으로 하상재료의 변화가 심한 구역은 피하고 가급적 해당 구역에서 보편적으로 산재된 하상재료를 선택하였다. 향후 부정류 모형인 HEC-RAS를 이용하여 실측 유량과 수위를 적용한 조도계수를 산정한다면 보다 정밀한 조도계수를 산정할 것으로 판단된다.

• Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
• /
• v.21 no.5
• /
• pp.619-628
• /
• 2009

To predict the time-dependent behavior of concrete structures, the models which describe the time-dependent characteristics of concrete, i.e. creep and shrinkage are required. However, there must be significant differences between the displacements that are obtained using the given creep and shrinkage models and the measured displacements, because of the uncertainties of creep and shrinkage model itself and those of environmental condition. There are some efforts to reduce these error or uncertainties by using the model which are obtained from creep test for the concrete in construction site. Nevertheless, the predicted values from this model may be still different from the actual values due to the same reason. This study aimed to propose a method of estimating the creep coefficient from the measured displacements of concrete structure, where creep model uncertainty factor was considered as an error factor of creep model. Numerical validation for double composite steel box and concrete beam showed desirable feasibility of the presented method. Consideration of the time-dependent characteristics of creep as one of the error factors make it possible to predict long-term behaviors of concrete structures more realistically, especially long-span PSC girder bridges and concrete cable-stayed bridges of which major problem is the geometry control under construction and maintenance.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.26 no.6A
• /
• pp.1001-1011
• /
• 2006

It is a general agreement that exact statistical solutions can be found by a Monte Carlo technique. Due to difficulties, however, in the numerical generation of random fields, which satisfy not only the probabilistic distribution but the spectral characteristics as well, it is recognized as relatively difficult to find an exact response variability of a structural response. In this study, recognizing that the random field assumes a constant over the domain under consideration when the correlation distance tends to infinity, a semi-theoretical solution of response variability is proposed for general structures. In this procedure, the probability density function is directly used. It is particularly noteworthy that the proposed methodology provides response variability for virtually any type of probability density function, and has capability of considering correlations between multiple random variables.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
• /
• 2011.04a
• /
• pp.349-352
• /
• 2011

본 논문에서는 변동하중 하에서의 균열 성장 예측을 위하여 손상 모델과 주어진 데이터에 기반하여 균열 성장 모델의 변수를 확률분포로 추정한다. 이를 위해 베이지안 접근법을 활용하여 불확실 변수 결합 확률 분포식을 구축하고, Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)을 통해서 균열 성장 모델의 변수 샘플을 추출하였다. 여기서 추출된 샘플들을 균열 성장 모델에 적용, 균열 성장의 결과를 확률적인 분포로 예측하였다. 위와 같은 추정은 재료의 물성과 같은 변동성이 있는 변수를 모델에 적용하여, 결과값을 확률적인 분포로 예측하였다. 이것은 기존의 안전계수 개념보다 더욱 적절한 안전 기준을 제시 할 수 있다.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
• /
• 2010.04a
• /
• pp.620-623
• /
• 2010

구조요소의 설계에서 유한요소해석은 매우 효과적인 방법이며 정확한 해석 기술을 요구한다. 그러나 제조 공정이나 환경에 따라 달라지는 재료 물성이나 불확실성을 내포하는 피로 물성을 확정적인 값으로 이용하는 등 입력 변수의 부정확한 정보로 인해 유한요소해석 결과를 신뢰하지 못하는 경우가 자주 발생한다. 실제 시험을 통해 설계의 결과를 예측하는 것은 경제적인 측면과 시간소요 면에서 한계가 따르기에 신뢰할 수 있는 유한요소해석 방법이 요구된다. 본 연구에서는 고주기의 피로 해석을 위해 유한요소해석을 이용하여 스프링의 응력-수명(S-N) 파라미터를 역 추정하고 수명을 예측해 보았다. 이를 위해 실제 산업현장에서 쓰이는 자동차 서스펜션 코일 스프링을 예제로 사용하였다. 시험 모델에 대해 불확실성을 고려한 베이지안 접근법을 이용하여 입력변수의 파라미터를 역 추정하였으며, 마코프체인몬테카를로(Markov Chain Monte Carlo) 기법을 이용하여 얻어진 피로 물성 파라미터의 샘플 데이터를 이용해서 유한요소해석을 실시하고 신뢰수준 내에서 새로운 구조요소의 피로수명을 예측하였다.

• Journal of the korean Society of Automotive Engineers
• /
• v.15 no.4
• /
• pp.34-43
• /
• 1993

본 고에서는 피로해석을 통한 승용차 강도/내구기법에 대하여 개략적으로 언급하였다. 피로해석에 어려운 점은 수명예측방법이 이론적으로 완전히 정립된 것도 아니며 하중 및 재료특성 그리고 주변 사용환경등에 대한 불확실성으로 정량적인 평가가 힘들다는 것이다. 하지만 설계시간의 단축 및 효과적인 경량화 달성을 위해서는 보다 효율적이며 범용화된 피로해석 기법의 개발이 필요하며 해석과정의 자동화도 반드시 이루어져야 할 과제이다.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.13 no.2
• /
• pp.121-133
• /
• 1993

Presented is a study on the establishment of a method of advanced reliability analysis for the realistic analysis and design of reinforced concrete(RC) structures. Considerable variabilities exist in concrete structures due to random nature of concrete materials and member dimensions. The present study analyzes first the uncertainties in concrete, reinforcements and member dimensions and then a method is proposed to determine the probability uncertainties of basic variables. The limit state equations are also proposed for the RC members with axial compression and bending and RC footings. The advanced invariant second-moment method is applied to analyze those structures. The present study provides an important base for realistic reliability analysis of RC structures.