• Title/Summary/Keyword: 장기간 의존 시계열

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Bootstrap estimation of long-run variance under strong dependence (장기간 의존 시계열에서 붓스트랩을 이용한 장기적 분산 추정)

  • Baek, Changryong;Kwon, Yong
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.449-462
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    • 2016
  • This paper considers a long-run variance estimation using a block bootstrap method under strong dependence also known as long range dependence. We extend currently available methods in two ways. First, it extends bootstrap methods under short range dependence to long range dependence. Second, to accommodate the observation that strong dependence may come from deterministic trend plus noise models, we propose to utilize residuals obtained from the nonparametric kernel estimation with the bimodal kernel. The simulation study shows that our method works well; in addition, a data illustration is presented for practitioners.

The sparse vector autoregressive model for PM10 in Korea (희박 벡터자기상관회귀 모형을 이용한 한국의 미세먼지 분석)

  • Lee, Wonseok;Baek, Changryong
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.807-817
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    • 2014
  • This paper considers multivariate time series modelling of PM10 data in Korea collected from 2008 to 2011. We consider both temporal and spatial dependencies of PM10 by applying the sparse vector autoregressive (sVAR) modelling proposed by Davis et al. (2013). It utilizes the partial spectral coherence to measure cross correlation between different regions, in turn provides the sparsity in the model while balancing the parsimony of model and the goodness of fit. It is also shown that sVAR performs better than usual vector autoregressive model (VAR) in forecasting.