• Title/Summary/Keyword: 잠재특성모형

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The Hazardous Expressway Sections for Drowsy Driving Using Digital Tachograph in Truck (화물차 DTG 데이터를 활용한 고속도로 졸음운전 위험구간 분석)

  • CHO, Jongseok;LEE, Hyunsuk;LEE, Jaeyoung;KIM, Ducknyung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.160-168
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    • 2017
  • In the past 10 years, the accidents caused by drowsy driving have occupied about 23% of all traffic accidents in Korea expressway network and this rate is the highest one among all accident causes. Unlike other types of accidents caused by speeding and distraction to the road, the accidents by drowsy driving should be managed differently because the drowsiness might not be controlled by human's will. To reduce the number of accidents caused by drowsy driving, researchers previously focused on the spot based analysis. However, what we actually need is a segment (link) and occurring time based analysis, rather than spot based analysis. Hence, this research performs initial effort by adapting link concept in terms of drowsy driving on highway. First of all, we analyze the accidents caused by drowsy in historical accident data along with their road environments. Then, links associate with driving time are analyzed using digital tachograph (DTG) data. To carry this out, negative binomial regression models, which are broadly used in the field, including highway safety manual, are used to define the relationship between the number of traffic accidents on expressway and drivers' behavior derived from DTG. From the results, empirical Bayes (EB) and potential for safety improvement (PSI) analysis are performed for potential risk segments of accident caused by drowsy driving on the future. As the result of traffic accidents caused by drowsy driving, the number of the traffic accidents increases with increase in annual average daily traffic (AADT), the proportion of trucks, the amount of DTG data, the average proportion of speeding over 20km/h, the average proportion of deceleration, and the average proportion of sudden lane-changing.

Multidimensional Health Trajectories and Their Correlates Among Older Adults (노인의 다중적 건강 변화궤적 유형화 및 관련요인 탐색)

  • Bae, Dayoung;Park, Eunbin
    • Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.31-48
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study was to provide an understanding of the trajectories of multidimensional health among older adults, including depression, chronic diseases, and cognitive function. Data were drawn from the 1-6 waves of the Korean Longitudinal Study of Ageing(KLoSA), and a sample of 2,059 respondents aged 65 and older at baseline was used for the analyses. Latent growth curve models and growth mixture models were used to explore the changes in depression, chronic diseases, cognitive function, and heterogeneous trajectories among them. One-way ANOVAs with Scheffé post-hoc analysis and chi-square tests were used to find differences in sociodemographic characteristics, health behaviors, and life satisfaction across the latent trajectory classes. Latent growth curve models revealed that depressive symptoms and the number of chronic diseases increased over time, while cognitive function showed gradual decreases. Three heterogeneous patterns of multidimensional health trajectories were identified: normal aging, increase in chronic diseases, and chronic deterioration. Significant differences were observed in sociodemographic characteristics, health behaviors, and life satisfaction across the three latent classes. In particular, low educational attainment, household income, and life satisfaction were associated with the chronic deterioration class. Based on the findings, we discussed suggestions for health promotion education targeting older adults. This study also emphasizes the importance of home economics education in promoting health literacy across the life course.

통계모형의 전문스포츠 현장 적용 사례

  • Eom, Han-Ju;Jo, Jeong-Hwan;Sin, Seung-Yun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
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    • 2002.11a
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    • pp.51-59
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    • 2002
  • 스포츠 통계와 관련된 주제들은 경기결과의 설명 예측력 분석, 선수와 팀 평가, 경기내용의 요약, 경기의 환경적 요인 평가, 경기 규칙 분석, 경기결과의 시각적 표현, 토너먼트 구조 연구 등의 영역으로 다양하다. 이 글에서는 야구 축구 농구 테니스 종목을 중심으로 통계적 방법을 적용하여 스포츠 현장의 문제를 어떻게 접근하고 있는지를 개괄하였다. 전통적으로 스포츠 통계는 선수와 팀 그리고 전략의 평가가 주를 이루었지만, 오늘날 스포츠통계는 경기의 잠재적, 외적 요인 등의 주제로 관심영역을 넓혀가고 있다. 그러나 국내에서는 경기내용의 기술적(descriptive) 분석이 주류를 이루고 있으며, 전문적 수준의 통계적 접근은 활발하지 못하고 있다. 현장과 자료의 특성을 고려하여 통계와 스포츠(체육)분야의 다양한 협동연구가 필요하다.

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Implementation of a Computer Vision-Based Delirium Diagnosis Model (컴퓨터 비전을 통한 섬망 조기진단 모형 구현)

  • Kim, Sebin;Kim, Nahyun;Lee, Sohyun;Shin, Changhwa
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • 2022.11a
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    • pp.980-982
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    • 2022
  • 본 연구는 와상환자에게 자주 발생하는 낙상, 욕창, 불면증을 영상기술을 통해 인식하여 섬망의 조기진단 모형을 구현한다. 실시간 모니터링을 통해 섬망 잠재환자를 선별하고 집중적인 관리와 치료로 이어질 수 있도록 간호인력을 보조하는 데 주된 목적을 두고 있다. 과활동형 섬망은 파생위험 중 하나인 낙상과, 저활동형 섬망은 원인 요소인 욕창과 묶어 자세인식을 통해 판정한다. 또한 주로 밤에 악화되는 섬망의 특성을 고려해 눈 깜빡임을 통한 불면증 검사를 추가로 반영하였다. 낙상과 욕창을 섬망과 묶어 융복합적인 위험예측 시스템을 구축함과 동시에, 기존의 섬망 사정도구들이 지니는 시공간적 제약을 개선함으로써 간호인력의 부담을 덜어줄 것으로 기대된다.

Review of CN and Initial Abstraction in the Hancheon basin of Jeju Island (제주도 한천 유역의 CN 및 초기손실에 대한 검토)

  • Kang, Minseok;Lee, Youngju;Song, sunguk;Yoo, Chulsang
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2019.05a
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    • pp.211-211
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    • 2019
  • 본 연구의 목표는 제주도를 대상으로 한 강우-유출 과정에서 적절한 CN값의 결정 및 초기손실의 규모를 판단하는 것이다. 제주도는 화산 활동으로 형성된 섬으로 투수성이 좋은 다공질 화산암류 및 화산회토로 이루어져 침투가 쉽게 발생한다. 이러한 토양 특성으로 인해 제주도 유역의 유출해석 수행 시 내륙지역과 동일한 방법을 적용하는 데 한계가 있다. 기존 제주도의 강우-유출연구를 살펴보면 초기손실의 고려방법이나 선행함수조건의 고려방법이 달라 상대적인 비교가 모호해지는 문제가 있다. 또한 고려방법에 따라 유출해석 결과가 서로 상충되기도 하여 유의한 결론을 제시하는데 무리가 따른다. 이에 본 연구에서는 제주도 지역의 CN 및 초기손실에 대한 검토를 수행하였다. 이를 위해 대상유역은 한천 유역으로 선정하였으며, 호우사상은 2012년과 2014년에 발생한 태풍 '카눈', 태풍 '볼라벤', 태풍 '산바', 태풍 '나크리' 호우사상을 적용하였다. 한천 유역의 CN과 초기손실에 대한 검토를 위해 강우 자료는 대상 유역 인근 제주(184), 아라(329), 어리목(753), 진달래밭(870), 윗세오름(871) 지점의 강우 자료를 이용하였으며, 유출량 자료는 한천 하류에 위치한 제4한천교에 관측된 수위 및 유속 자료를 이용하였다. 먼저 각 호우사상별 총 유출량을 기저유출과 직접유출으로 분리하고 직접유출량에 대한 유호우량을 산정하였다. 다음으로 산정된 유효우량을 NRCS의 유효우량 산정방법에 적용되는 총 유량-유효우량 관계모형에 적용하여 유역의 최대잠재보유수량을 산정하였다. 이때 초기손실량은 유역의 최대잠재보유수량의 20%, 30%, 40%로 가정하였다. 마지막으로 산정된 최대잠재보유량을 최대잠재보유수량-CN 관계식에 적용하여 CN을 산정하고, 기존 연구에서 적용한 한천 유역의 CN과 비교하여 그 결과를 검토하였다.

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Methods for Genetic Parameter Estimations of Carcass Weight, Longissimus Muscle Area and Marbling Score in Korean Cattle (한우의 도체중, 배장근단면적 및 근내지방도의 유전모수 추정방법)

  • Lee, D.H.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.46 no.4
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    • pp.509-516
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    • 2004
  • This study is to investigate the amount of biased estimates for heritability and genetic correlation according to data structure on marbling scores in Korean cattle. Breeding population with 5 generations were simulated by way of selection for carcass weight, Longissimus muscle area and latent values of marbling scores and random mating. Latent variables of marbling scores were categorized into five by the thresholds of 0, I, 2, and 3 SD(DSI) or seven by the thresholds of -2, -1, 0,1I, 2, and 3 SD(DS2). Variance components and genetic pararneters(Heritabilities and Genetic correlations) were estimated by restricted maximum likelihood on multivariate linear mixed animal models and by Gibbs sampling algorithms on multivariate threshold mixed animal models in DS1 and DS2. Simulation was performed for 10 replicates and averages and empirical standard deviation were calculated. Using REML, heritabilitis of marbling score were under-estimated as 0.315 and 0.462 on DS1 and DS2, respectively, with comparison of the pararneter(0.500). Otherwise, using Gibbs sampling in the multivariate threshold animal models, these estimates did not significantly differ to the parameter. Residual correlations of marbling score to other traits were reduced with comparing the parameters when using REML algorithm with assuming linear and normal distribution. This would be due to loss of information and therefore, reduced variation on marbling score. As concluding, genetic variation of marbling would be well defined if liability concepts were adopted on marbling score and implemented threshold mixed model on genetic parameter estimation in Korean cattle.

Prediction of River-bed Change Using River Channel Characteristics and A Numerical Model (하도특성량과 수치모형에 의한 하상변동 예측)

  • Yoon, Yeo Seung;Ahn, Kyeong Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.51-61
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    • 2007
  • In natural river, river-bed change is greatly influenced by the various factors such as river improvement, change of watershed land use, construction of dam and reservoir, gravel mining, and so on. The knowledge about river-bed change in the river is essential in the river modification, wetlands plan, and maintaining stable alluvial rivers. In this study, river-bed change in the future was predicted by investigating river channel characteristics which play dominant role in the formation of channel and based on the numerical model through river survey and the grain size analysis. The Proposed investigation and model was applied to the Geum river and the Miho stream which have been experienced river degradation due to river aggregate dredging and now seams to be stable. The result of potential river-bed change which was estimated by investigating channel characteristic including slope of channel, friction velocity, and so on is similar to that which was estimated based on the numerical model. It was found that the Geum river and the Miho stream will be stable. In the future, if considering the characteristics of river channel which is estimated by the river-bed scour, sediment, and so on, it is possible that river improvement and wetland restoration plan are established stably and naturally.

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The Study on the Accident Injury Severity Using Ordered Probit Model (순서형 프로빗 모형을 이용한 사고심각도 분석)

  • Ha, Oh-Keun;Oh, Ju-Taek;Won, Jai-Mu;Sung, Nak-Moon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.4 s.82
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    • pp.47-55
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    • 2005
  • In recent years, the rapid growth of vehicles have increased traffic crashes. Since they can cause the economic losses and have put the life qualify in danger, there should be numerous efforts to reduce traffic crashes. To reduce traffic crashes, this research seeks to improve the safety of intersections by analysing causations of injury severity with Ordered Probability Model. This research applied the Ordered Probit Model, which assumes that ${\epsilon}_i$(random error) is normally distributed, for model calibration and used $p^2$ (likelihood ratio) and $x^2$ (Chi-square) for model selection. The results show that minor road traffic, heavy vehicle rates, major and minor right-turn rates, presence of lightings, speed limits, instructive line for left-turn traffic are significant factors affecting crash severities at signalized intersections.

A Study on Attitudes and Acceptance of Port Digital Transformation (항만 디지털 전환에 대한 수용태도와 수용성에 관한 연구)

  • Song, Hyeon-Deok;Chang, Myung-Hee
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.155-178
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    • 2023
  • The purpose of this study is to derive factors that affect the acceptance of digital transformation in ports and empirically analyze the impact of these factors on the acceptance of digital transformation through a survey of port workers. Additionally, we test whether acceptance attitude plays a mediating role in the relationship between these factors and digital transformation acceptance. The variables used in this study are as follows. First, knowledge, self-efficacy, and involvement were included as variables related to individual characteristics, relative advantages, complexity, observability were included as variables related to innovation characteristics, and government regulations and competitor pressure were included as variables relate to environmental characteristics, so that a total of eight latent variables were selected. The results of this study are summarized as follows. First, two variables among individual characteristics, self-efficacy and involvement, were able to confirm a positive(+) causal relationship with the attitude of accepting digital transformation, and knowledge initially expected a positive(+) causal relationship with the attitude of accepting digital transformation, but the result was a negative(-) causal relationship, so that the hypothesis was rejected. Second, among the characteristics of innovation, complexity has a negative(-) causal relationship with the attitude of accepting digital transformation, and relative advantages and technological innovation have a positive(+) causal relationship with the attitude of accepting digital transformation. Finally, among the environmental characteristics, government regulations and competitor pressure, confirmed a positive(+) causal relationship with the attitude of accepting digital transformation. In addition, it was found that the attitude of accepting digital transformation had a positive(+) causal relationship with personal acceptance and social acceptance of digital transformation.

Estimation of potential distribution of sweet potato weevil (Cylas formicarius) and climate change impact using MaxEnt (MaxEnt를 활용한 개미바구미(Cylas formicarius)의 잠재 분포와 기후변화 영향 모의)

  • Jinsol Hong;Heewon Hong;Sumin Pi;Soohyun Lee;Jae Ha Shin;Yongeun Kim;Kijong Cho
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.505-518
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    • 2023
  • The key to invasive pest management lies in preemptive action. However, most current research using species distribution models is conducted after an invasion has occurred. This study modeled the potential distribution of the globally notorious sweet potato pest, the sweet potato weevil(Cylas formicarius), that has not yet invaded Korea using MaxEnt. Using global occurrence data, bioclimatic variables, and topsoil characteristics, MaxEnt showed high explanatory power as both the training and test areas under the curve exceeded 0.9. Among the environmental variables used in this study, minimum temperature in the coldest month (BIO06), precipitation in the driest month (BIO14), mean diurnal range (BIO02), and bulk density (BDOD) were identified as key variables. The predicted global distribution showed high values in most countries where the species is currently present, with a significant potential invasion risk in most South American countries where C. formicarius is not yet present. In Korea, Jeju Island and the southwestern coasts of Jeollanam-do showed very high probabilities. The impact of climate change under shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios indicated an expansion along coasts as climate change progresses. By applying the 10th percentile minimum training presence rule, the potential area of occurrence was estimated at 1,439 km2 under current climate conditions and could expand up to 9,485 km2 under the SSP585 scenario. However, the model predicted that an inland invasion would not be serious. The results of this study suggest a need to focus on the risk of invasion in islands and coastal areas.