• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.138-146
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• 2013

Tetrapod, one of the famous armor blocks for rubble mound breakwaters, has been widely used in the world. In order to evaluate the required weight of Tetrapod, many researchers have proposed various stability formulas. Since the stability formulas were proposed by curve-fitting the experimental data, some uncertainties are included in the formulas. The main uncertainties are associated with experimental data, derivation of the formula, and variability of the design variables. In this study, a new stability formula is developed by using M5' model tree, which reduces the uncertainty in the derivation of the formula. The index of agreement is used to evaluate the performance of the developed formula. The index of agreement for the new formula is higher by about 0.1 than the previous formula. The performance of the previous formula was not good when the predicted stability number is greater than about 3.0. However. the new formula is accurate regardless of the magnitude of stability number. As a result, the new formula performs better than the previous formula, while expressed in the form of a tree but still in an explicit form.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2012.05a
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• pp.49-53
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• 2012

본 연구는 불확실성을 고려하여 홍수 취약성 평가를 정량화하기 위한 새로운 방법을 제시하였다. 현실 세계로부터 얻는 많은 정보들은 불확실성을 가지고 있으므로 본 연구는 우리나라의 공간적 홍수 취약성을 산정하기 위해 Fuzzy TOPSIS기법을 사용하였다. 또한 Fuzzy TOPSIS의 결과를 TOPSIS 및 가중합계법을 적용한 결과와 비교하였다. 그 결과 일부 지역의 취약성 순위가 큰 폭으로 역전되는 현상을 보였다. Spearman 순위 상관분석을 실시한 결과 TOPSIS와 가중합계법의 순위는 높은 일치성을 보였으나 Fuzzy TOPSIS의 순위와는 상당히 일치하지 않은 결과를 나타냈다. 즉, Fuzzy 개념을 반영하여 지역별 취약성을 산정할 경우 우선순위의 변동이 크게 발생할 수 있으므로 본 연구에서 제시한 모형도 하나의 취약성 평가의 방법이 될 수 있다.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.109-117
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• 2011

It was calculated using empirical formulas for the weight of Tetrapod, which was a representative armor unit in the rubble mound breakwater in Korea. As the formulas were evaluated from a curve-fitting with the result of hydraulic test, the uncertainty of experimental error was included. Therefore, the neural network and M5' model tree were used to minimize the uncertainty and predicted the stability number of armor block. The index of agreement between the predicted and measured stability number was calculated to assess the degree of uncertainty for each model. While the neural network with the highest index of agreement have an excellent prediction capability, a significant disadvantage exists that general designers can not easily handle the method. However, although M5' model tree has a lower prediction capability than the neural network, the model tree is easily used by the designers because it has a good prediction capability compared with the existing empirical formula and can be used to propose the formulas like an empirical formula.

• Journal of Venture Innovation
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• v.6 no.4
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• pp.113-131
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• 2023

Post-merger integration(PMI) plays a very important role in the success of M&A. Therefore, based on previous studies on PMI, this study discusses the relationship between communication of acquired enterprise members and uncertainty reduction, organizational satisfaction, organizational trust in the PMI process, focusing on the moderating effect of business area consistency between the acquisition and the acquired company. In order to achieve the purpose of this study, the hypothesis of the relationship between variables was established and an empirical analysis was conducted. In order to collect data, a survey was conducted on members of the acquired company in China, and 317 questionnaires were finally collected and used for empirical analysis. For the collected data, the research hypothesis was verified using SPSS 26.0. The results of the study confirmed that communication has a positive effect on the reduction of uncertainty, job satisfaction, and organizational trust perceived by members of the acquired company, and that the consistency in business areas between the acquisition and the acquired company weakens the relationship between communication and uncertainty. In the positive relationship between communication and job satisfaction, organizational trust, the effect of strengthening the moderating variable has not been confirmed, but rather the weakening control effect was found. Based on these findings, the strategy of communicating with the members of the acquired company in the PMI process is meaningful for the success or failure of the merger and provides theoretical and practical implications for proposing differentiated human resources management measures according to M&A type.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.159-180
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• 2010

The purpose of this study is to examine how perceived service quality, value congruence influences uncertainty avoidance, customer satisfaction and customer loyalty, and in turn, provides insight for Korean banks when they penetrate into the Chinese marketplace. In so doing, this study conducts a survey on participants who are using banking services in the Changchun, Jinan, Guangzhou of Jilin Province, Shandong Province and Guangdong Province. The findings are as followed. First, Uncertainty avoidance plays an important mediating role in the relationship between perceived service quality and customer satisfaction, between value congruence and customer satisfaction. Uncertainty avoidance has a direct effect on customer satisfaction, but is significantly negative. Second, value congruence has a direct effect on uncertainty avoidance, but is significantly negative. Third, customer satisfaction has a direct effect on attitudinal loyalty and behavioral loyalty.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.401-406
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• 2003

This paper deals with stress analysis of single-lap adhesive joints which have uncertain material properties. Basically, material properties have a certain amount of scatter and such uncertainties can affect the performance of joints. In this paper, the convex modeling is introduced to consider such uncertainties in calculating peel and shear stress of adhesive joints and the results are compared with those from the Monte Carlo simulation. Numerical results show that stresses increase when uncertainties considered, which indicates that such uncertainties should not be ignored for estimation of structural safety. Also, the results obtained by the convex modeling and the Monte Carlo simulation show good agreement, which demonstrates the effectiveness of convex modeling.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2016.05a
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• pp.280-280
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• 2016

특정 자료의 시간의 흐름에 따른 예측치를 추정하는 방법으로 AR Model 즉, 자기회귀모형이 많이 사용되고 있다. AR Model은 변수의 현재 값을 과거 값의 함수로 나타내게 되는데, 이런 시계열 분석 모델을 사용할 때 매개변수의 추정 과정이 필수적으로 요구된다. 일반적으로 매개변수를 추정하는 방법에는 확률적근사법(stochastic approximation), 최소제곱법(method of least square), 자기상관법(method of autocorrelation method), 최우도법(method of maximum likelihood) 등이 있다. AR Model에서 가장 많이 사용되는 최우도법은 표본크기가 충분히 클 때 가장 효율적인 방법으로 평가되지만 수치적으로 해를 구하는 과정이 복잡한 경우가 많으며, 해를 구하지 못하는 어려움이 따르기도 한다. 또한 표본 크기가 작을 때 일반적으로 잘 일치하지 않은 결과를 얻게 된다. 우리나라의 강우, 유량 등의 자료는 자료의 수가 적은 경우가 많기 때문에 최우도법을 통한 매개변수 추정 시 불확실성이 내재되어있지만 그것을 정량적으로 제시하는데 한계가 있다. 본 연구에서는 AR Model의 매개변수 추정 시 Bayesian 기법으로 매개변수의 사후분포(posterior distribution)를 제공하여 매개변수의 불확실성 구간을 정량적으로 표현하게 됨으로써, 시계열 분석을 통해 보다 신뢰성 있는 예측치를 얻을 수 있으리라 판단된다.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.38 no.12 s.161
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• pp.1051-1060
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• 2005

The present study analyzes hydrologic utilization of optimal radar-derived rainfall by using semi-distributed TOPMODEL and evaluates the impacts of radar rainfall and model parametric uncertainty on a hydrologic model. Monte Carlo technique is used to produce the flow ensembles. The simulated flows from the corrected radar rainfalls with real-time bias adjustment scheme are well agreed to observed flows during 22-26 July 2003. It is shown that radar-derived rainfall is useful for simulating streamflow on a basin scale. These results are diagnose with which radar-rainfall Input and parametric uncertainty influence the character of the flow simulation uncertainty. The main conclusions for this uncertainty analysis are that the radar input uncertainty is less influent than the parametric one, and combined uncertainty with radar and Parametric input can be included the highest uncertainty on a streamflow simulation.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.214-219
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• 2013

This paper proposes the robust high-gain observer based SOC estimatro for uncertain RC model of Li-Ion batteries. In general, RC battery model has inevitable uncertainties and it cause some negative effect to estimate the accurate SOC of Li-Ion batteries. The proposed estimator overcomes such weakness with two techniques; high-gain observer design technique and sliding mode control technique. A high-gain observer provides the robustness against model uncertainties to the proposed estimator. A sliding mode control technique helps the proposed estimator by reducing the side effect of adopting a high-gain observer such as peaking phenomenon and perturbation. The performance of the proposed estimator is verified by some simulation.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.164-178
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• 2022

Uncertainties in weather forecasts would affect the reliability of yield prediction using crop models. The objective of this study was to compare uncertainty in crop yield prediction caused by the use of the weather forecast data. Daily weather data were produced at 10 km spatial resolution using W eather Research and Forecasting (W RF) model. The nearest neighbor method was used to downscale these data at the resolution of 5 km (W RF5K). Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) was also applied to the WRF data to produce the weather data at the same resolution. W RF5K and PRISM data were used as inputs to the CROPGRO-SOYBEAN model to predict crop yield. The uncertainties of the gridded data were analyzed using cumulative growing degree days (CGDD) and cumulative solar radiation (CSRAD) during the soybean growing seasons for the crop of interest. The degree of agreement (DOA) statistics including structural similarity index were determined for the crop model outputs. Our results indicated that the DOA statistics for CGDD were correlated with that for the maturity dates predicted using WRF5K and PRISM data. Yield forecasts had small values of the DOA statistics when large spatial disagreement occured between maturity dates predicted using WRF5K and PRISM. These results suggest that the spatial uncertainties in temperature data would affect the reliability of the phenology and, as a result, yield predictions at a greater degree than those in solar radiation data. This merits further studies to assess the uncertainties of crop yield forecasts using a wide range of crop calendars.